Apple Beats On Top And Bottom Lines -- Margins Come In At 24.3% Vs 24.1% Expected -- October 27, 2022

Huge beat.

Macs: actual $11.5 billion vs  $9.4 billion. I find that incredible. 

Holy mackerel, share price reverses. Traders apparently seeing what I'm seeing.

iPhone 14 on sale for only eight days in the entire quarter, and the holiday quarter has just started.

Wow, CNBC is negative on AAPL. Not unexpected. After falling significantly during the day, AAPL looks like it may turn green in after-hours. 

Holy mackerel, AAPL has turned "green" after hours, but back and forth -- around the "flat line."

Shares went from being down $4.55 / 3% during the day to being up $1.30 / 0.9% after hours.

Yeah, anyone paying attention knows this was a huge beat. 

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More

Link here.

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Link here.

Sempra Infrastructure And Silicon Valley Power Sign Agreement For Renewable Energy Supply -- October 27, 2022

Press release:

HOUSTON, Oct. 27, 2022 -- Sempra Infrastructure, a subsidiary of Sempra, and Silicon Valley Power announced today they have entered into a 20-year power purchase agreement for the long-term supply of renewable energy to the City of Santa Clara, California, from the proposed Cimarrón wind project, Sempra Infrastructure’s cross-border wind generation facility under development in Baja California, Mexico. 

Cimarrón is expected to be a 300-megawatt (MW) wind generation facility that utilizes Sempra Infrastructure’s existing cross-border high voltage transmission line to interconnect and deliver clean energy to the East County Substation in San Diego County.

Folks Doubted The 2.6% GDP? Maybe It's Real -- October 27, 2022

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Laser-Focused On Dividends 

McDonald's announces a huge dividend increase, from $1.38 to $1.52 / share, record date, 12/1/22, payable 12/15/22.

Black Hills (BKH) raises its dividend to 62.5 cents, record date, 11/17/22 and payable 12/1/22. 

I still prefer dividends to company buybacks. 

Spirits -- Very, Very Interesting -- October 27, 2022

Link here.

Anticipation: From MacRumors -- 11:57 A.M. PT -- October 27, 2022

Link here.

Apple is set to report its earnings results for the fourth quarter of its 2022 fiscal year today at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time. Apple CEO Tim Cook and Apple CFO Luca Maestri will discuss the results on a conference call for investors at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time. 

New Products During Quarter 

Apple's fourth quarter ran from June 26 through September 24, according to the company's 2022 fiscal calendar. 

Apple launched or started accepting pre-orders for several new products during this period, including new iPhones, Apple Watches, and more: 

• MacBook Air with M2 chip 
•  iPhone 14 
•  iPhone 14 Plus (pre-orders only) 
•  iPhone 14 Pro 
•  iPhone 14 Pro Max 
• Apple Watch SE (second generation) 
• Apple Watch Series 8 
• Apple Watch Ultra 
• AirPods Pro (second generation)

Record September Quarter Expected 

On average, Apple is estimated to report revenue of $88.9 billion for the quarter, according to Yahoo Finance. This would be a September quarter revenue record for Apple and 6.5% higher than the $83.4 billion that Apple reported in the year-ago quarter.

Days Of Supply -- US Crude Oil -- Trending Higher -- Certainly No Shortage Of Oil And The SPR Releases Don't Matter -- October 27, 2022

Link here. 

As a reminder, for someone investing in oil, days of supply greater than 20 days of supply (in the US) is not "good." We haven't been below 20 days in ages. 

I've grown to accept 25 days of supply as being "acceptable. When supply gets to 26 days and trends lower that's nice. But now, after trending toward 26 days during the last days of summer  / early days of autumn, that trend has reversed, and not only has the number gotten back to 27, it has just gone over 28 days. 

A painful trend for someone who invests in "oil." 

By the way, the "diesel shortage."

The shortage of diesel is not due to lack of oil which the Bidens and the Saudis would have us believe.

The shortage of diesel is not due to lack of refining. Refiners are only operating at 88% of their capacity and there's a 25-day-supply of diesel. The guy on the corner buying diesel cannot possibly be short diesel if there's a 25-day supply.

So, what's the cause of the perceived shortage? 

In the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic there quickly developed a toilet paper "shortage." 

There was no toilet paper "shortage."

The "diesel, October, 2022," is today's "toilet paper, May, 2020" shortage. 

It's not oil production; it's not refining; it's logistics. And, to a great degree, due to manipulation and human behavior.

By the way, did you all see the new "crack" spread for refiners? It's quite remarkable. Refiners are "making $60 bbl refining" coming off an even higher price point.

Don't believe me? I'll post the link later. The links have been posted.

But first, from RBN Energy

• July 19, 2022;
• May 6, 2022; 

It's amazing how the Saudis have the Americans "believing" it's an "SPR issue." No, it's not. 

SLB Bellwether? Fast And Furious, Part 6 -- October 27, 2022

Link here.

This is incredibly exciting. 

My largest holding might be SLB. I don't know. Haven't looked at this in many years. Won't start now. Haven't bought any shares in quite some time except for automatic dividend reinvestment. 

Usual disclaimer applies.

Over-Draft Fees Now Illegal -- Fast And Furious -- Part 5 -- October 27, 2022

Elizabeth Warren's fingerprints all over this one. 

Link here.

This now explains why my bank -- some months ago -- sent me a letter saying that they would no longer charge over-draft fees. Wow. It all makes sense now.

Short terms bank loans will surge.

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The Book Page

My favorite geopoliticcal author: Peter Zeihan.

I read his most recent book (c. 2022) just a few weeks ago. Am now reading his book on US shale, c. 2017.

US Oil -- Fast And Furious, Part 4 -- October 27, 2022

US oil: barrels of last resort. This is truly incredible. Link here.

Energy Tickers Today -- Fast And Furious, Part 3 -- October 27, 2022

The tickers:

• SHEL: up 6%.
• CVX: up 1.3$.
• PSX: up 2.6%.
• COP: up 1.2%
• SLB: up 1.8%
• SRE: up 2%
• DVN: up 1.2%
• TTE: up 1.3%
• EOG: up 1.2%
• and this week's winner, HES: up 1.4%
  

Flaming disaster. Link here. One has no idea how many mom-and-pop retail investors have lost their life savings.

Tickers MRNA And PFE -- October 27, 2022

Wuhan flu. The blog.  Coronavirus: statistics.     Seasonal flu: CDC.  
Covid Data Tracker Weekly Review: link here, new.   Coovid data tracker: by community, new.

Percent of deaths from infectious respiratory illness running above 10%; epidemic threshold is 5%. I guess one could say "we're" twice greater than the epidemic threshold. 

And, so far, in the graph above, "no" yellow yet for this season. 

This will be the #1 medical story for 2022 - 2023. 

Tickers: MRNA and PFE.

Back To The Bakken -- October 27, 2022

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $89.40. Will we be back over $90 next week?

Natural gas: $5.521.

Monday, November 1, 2022: 1 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 482 for the year.
38891, conf, CLR, Lime Rock Resources, Hansen B 18-19-2TFH,

Sunday, October 30, 2022: 36 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 481 for the year.
38892, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Hansen B 18-19-3TFH,
38400, conf, CLR, Hess, EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-4,

Saturday, October 29, 2022: 34 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 479 for the year.
38893, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Hansen B 18-19-4TFHL,
38817, conf, CLR,Bonneville 11-23HSL,
38399, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-3,

Friday, October 28, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
None.

Thursday, October 27, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
None.

RBN Energy: another wild ride for Western Canadian Select - WTI differentials. 

Earlier this month, the price discount for Western Canadian Select (WCS) versus WTI at Cushing blew out to more than $30/bbl — 2.5x what’s typical and a signal that something was seriously out of whack. 

Well, it turns out that several hings were — and to some degree still are — off-kilter, combining to drive down the price of Western Canada’s benchmark heavy-oil blend to its lowest levels relative to WTI in four years. The culprits? Everything from renewed pipeline constraints to a deadly refinery fire in Ohio to the aftereffects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including releases from the U.S.’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the recent ups and downs in WCS pricing and the prospects for WCS-WTI differentials to return to a more normal range in the weeks to come. (Hint: This roller-coaster ride ain’t over.)

How Things Might Have Been -- October 27, 2022

Just think where we would be if Joe Biden had not killed the Keystone XL, and he did that the first day in office. At least no mean tweets at the time. 

Diesel and heating oil come from heavy oil.

Heavy oil comes from Canada.

Canada is relatively close to the US. 

RBN Energy: another wild ride for Western Canadian Select - WTI differentials. 

Earlier this month, the price discount for Western Canadian Select (WCS) versus WTI at Cushing blew out to more than $30/bbl — 2.5x what’s typical and a signal that something was seriously out of whack. 

Well, it turns out that several hings were — and to some degree still are — off-kilter, combining to drive down the price of Western Canada’s benchmark heavy-oil blend to its lowest levels relative to WTI in four years. The culprits? Everything from renewed pipeline constraints to a deadly refinery fire in Ohio to the aftereffects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including releases from the U.S.’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the recent ups and downs in WCS pricing and the prospects for WCS-WTI differentials to return to a more normal range in the weeks to come. (Hint: This roller-coaster ride ain’t over.)

Vermont Diesel -- Fast And Furious, Part 2 -- October 27, 2022

Because I'm out west, my circadian rhythm is off even more than normal, and I'm already four hours behind in blogging.

Again, a 25-day supply is just fine. Two other "things" are driving the high price of diesel. Think toilet paper. 

But, we press on.

Retail petroleum prices in Vermont, link here. Something seems to be missing. Are you kidding me? At the link you can move through month-by-month -- it's astonishing. 

New Hampshire here.

Bernie Sanders' office is being flooded with telephone calls from his constituents.  

His response: windfall profits tax. That will help. 

In Boston, well over $6 / gallon.

New York State is not in New England, so I assume New York is doing just fine, having AOC in charge. Link here.

Diesel: The Top Energy Story For 2022

Themes: 2022. Link here.

Gasoline demand: wow!

• stand-alone post here.
• possible explanation? I don't buy it (no pun intended) 
• to be clear, I don't "accept" the possible explanation 

Diesel: with regard to US energy, this might be the big story for 2022;

Diesel: will be the leading US energy story in 2022. Link here. And then, look at this, also from Bloomberg: gasoline shortage hits US east coast already low on diesel.

The Biden administration is considering ways to expand a little-used emergency fuel reserve in New England as the East Coast grapples with shortages of both gasoline and diesel, according to people familiar with the matter. Officials are concerned the 1 million-barrel reserve won’t be enough to counter a severe disruption this winter and are considering numerous options to bolster supplies, according to the people, who weren’t authorized to discuss internal White House deliberations on the record.

One option under discussion is asking Congress to lift a statutory cap on how much oil can be held in the reserve. Also on the table: requiring private companies to hold minimum inventory levels, which also would require congressional approval, and export curbs that could be imposed through executive powers. No decisions have been made, the people said. The White House has multiple tools for addressing shortages, a senior administration official said.

With just two weeks until the midterm elections, the US is facing the prospect of higher fuel prices amid an escalating supply crunch. Gasoline inventories are at an 8-year seasonal low while supplies of diesel -- used for heating and trucking -- remain at the lowest level ever for this time of year. On the East Coast, the situation is getting more dire with infrastructure constraints limiting fuel shipments and prompting some suppliers to start rationing fuel. 

That’s alarmed the Biden administration, which contends that private industry hasn’t adequately responded to its requests to ramp up supplies of gasoline and diesel in the Northeast. But given market dynamics and infrastructure constraints -- including the century-old Jones Act that can raise the cost of shipping to US ports -- many suppliers can make more money sending fuel overseas than shipping it to the East Coast. US petroleum exports surged to a new record last week.

The Biden administration has already started laying the groundwork for storing more emergency fuel inventories, finalizing new rules meant to incentivize suppliers to sell diesel and and gasoline to the government.

New York Times never mentions that President Biden killed the Keystone XL and is slow-rolling US shale.

By the way, the low supply of diesel is not the problem. A 25-day supply is more than adequate. The problem is logistics.  

A windfall profits tax will solve the problem. --SecEnergy Granholm. LOL.

Rationing in New England, apparently, has already begun.

GDP First Read Beats -- Fast And Furious, Part 1 -- October 27, 2022

GDP: beats; if no significant revision, GDP is positive for the year, right? The Fed is right Fox Business News: US GDP beats but recession fears linger.

Earnings:

• supply chain woes persist;
• shift to EVs will be very, very painful for years
• McDonald's beats;
• F with huge loss; a net loss almost a billion dollars;
  
• INTC could be third biggest story of the day, link here;
• SHEL: profits more than double from one year ago; but fails to hit record; will raise dividend;
• CMCSA: tops expectations; small gain in subscribers;
  

EIA earnings adjustment: out of control? WTH is going on? Link here. Link here.

US - Saudi oil: Javier misses the point and/or the story. Link here. 

Diesel: will be the leading US energy story in 2022. Link here. And then, look at this, also from Bloomberg: gasoline shortage hits US east coast already low on diesel.

The Biden administration is considering ways to expand a little-used emergency fuel reserve in New England as the East Coast grapples with shortages of both gasoline and diesel, according to people familiar with the matter. Officials are concerned the 1 million-barrel reserve won’t be enough to counter a severe disruption this winter and are considering numerous options to bolster supplies, according to the people, who weren’t authorized to discuss internal White House deliberations on the record.

One option under discussion is asking Congress to lift a statutory cap on how much oil can be held in the reserve. Also on the table: requiring private companies to hold minimum inventory levels, which also would require congressional approval, and export curbs that could be imposed through executive powers. No decisions have been made, the people said. The White House has multiple tools for addressing shortages, a senior administration official said.

With just two weeks until the midterm elections, the US is facing the prospect of higher fuel prices amid an escalating supply crunch. Gasoline inventories are at an 8-year seasonal low while supplies of diesel -- used for heating and trucking -- remain at the lowest level ever for this time of year. On the East Coast, the situation is getting more dire with infrastructure constraints limiting fuel shipments and prompting some suppliers to start rationing fuel. 

That’s alarmed the Biden administration, which contends that private industry hasn’t adequately responded to its requests to ramp up supplies of gasoline and diesel in the Northeast. But given market dynamics and infrastructure constraints -- including the century-old Jones Act that can raise the cost of shipping to US ports -- many suppliers can make more money sending fuel overseas than shipping it to the East Coast. US petroleum exports surged to a new record last week.

The Biden administration has already started laying the groundwork for storing more emergency fuel inventories, finalizing new rules meant to incentivize suppliers to sell diesel and and gasoline to the government.

New York Times never mentions that President Biden killed the Keystone XL and is slow-rolling US shale.

By the way, the low supply of diesel is not the problem. A 25-day supply is more than adequate. The problem is logistics.  

A windfall profits tax will solve the problem. --SecEnergy Granholm. LOL.