Thursday, September 1, 2022
A Musical Interlude -- Artemis 1 -- A "Go" For Saturday -- September 1, 2022
Jobs And Joblessness -- September 1, 2022
Updates
September 2, 2022:
- The WSJ:
- jobs growth resilient so far this year despite a contraction in the overall economy
- employers created > 500,000 jobs in July, recovering all the 22 million jobs lost in early 2020 (pandemic)
- unemployment rate has now matched a 50-year low
- CNBC panel:
- forecast
- 290K; no number provided; 350K; 400K; R: 266K; SL: 250K (a little less than expected)
- consensus: 381K
- actual
- 315K
- 800K have come back into the labor force
- unemploymenet rate jumps to 3.7%; highest since February, 2022 (3.8%
- up 0.3% vs 0.4% forecast
- 62.4%; post-Covid high
- U-6: 7%
- discussion after the numbers came out
- DOW futures: jump; up 145 points
- SL: something "goldilocks" about the number; particularly the 62.4$ participation rate
- "absolutely goldilocks"
- blah, blah, blah,
- Rick:
- Fed: pain, pain, pain
- Biden administration: spend, spend, spend
- needs to be reconciled (won't happen -- certainly not in an election year)
Original Post
From The WSJ today, link here:
U.S. workers’ filings for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level in two months, suggesting employers are clinging to their workers in a tight job market.
Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, decreased to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 last week from a revised 237,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said Thursday.
“After trending higher for several months, initial claims have drifted lower, providing more evidence that labor market conditions remain tight despite fairly weak economic growth,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at forecasting-firm Oxford Economics.
From earlier today on the blog:
BLS unemployment numbers:
From August 28, 2022: lots of room to put "millions out of work” and still stay below 3% U-1 unemployment.
Jobs: link here.
Now, 9:42 p.m. CT, Thursday night, we'll add this:
How can the unemployment rate stay unchanged with the data we've been seeing this week?
This was from Politico four weeks ago:
Crescent Point Energy With Three New Permits; Slawson Reports Two Completed DUCs -- September 1, 2022
WTI: $86.61.
Natural gas: $9.262.
Active rigs: 46.
Three new permits, #39219 - #39221, inclusive:
- Operator: Crescent Point Energy
- Field: Blue Ridge (Williams)
- Comments:
- Crescent Point Energy has permits for two Charlotte Elizabeth wells and one CPEUSC Samples permit;
- the Charlotte Elizabeth wells in lot 1 section 3-158-100, to be sited 350 FNL and at 745 FEL and 720 FEL;
- the Samples well will also be in lot 1 section 3-158-100; to also be sited 350 FNL and 670 FEL
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported to be completed:
- 38458, 1,910, Slawson, Machete Federal 1 SLH,
- 38454, 1,016, Slawson, Rainmaker Federal 5-25-36TFH,
Two more Abraxas wells acquired by Lime Rock Resources:
- both were/are Lillibridge wells, McKenzie County
The Biden Administration Does The Right Thing For Military Spouses -- September 1, 2022
From the government today. This is huge.
Since the inception of SBP and DIC, the GOP has had ample opportunity to do this. They never did. And the GOP says they are the party "supporting the military" and they never did this.
Now, the Biden administration has quietly done the right thing.
From my e-mail:
Even After The Release -- The SPR Will Have Way More Than "We" Need -- September 1, 2022
Wow, wow, wow -- I said this just the other day.
Come October, if necessary, the Biden administration can extend the SPR release. This is not rocket science.
For those who may have forgotten what I said then, the "new SPR" is the Permian, the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and the western Canadian sands.
Connecting The Dots -- My Favorite Chart -- My Favorite Bank -- September 1, 2022
Connecting the dots:
My checks are also free.
... and today I received this from my bank:
My checks are also free.
Just Some Crazy Charts -- September 1, 2022
Jay Powell, the Fed chairman: it's going to be painful.
Wage inflation?
- the state of California is looking to set wages for fast food workers.
BLS unemployment numbers:
From August 28, 2022: lots of room to put "millions out of work” and still stay below 3% U-1 unemployment.
Jobs: link here.
The "914's": link here.
Gasoline demand: it took all night but the EIA finally updated their graph, link here.
The investor with the 30-year horizon ...
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
WTI Continues To Fall; Chinese In Another Lockdown -- September 1, 2022
EIA: has lost all credibility.
- If any doubt, look at SecEnergy and the White House press secretary.
Lukoil chairman:
- in-hospital death. Complications of Covid?
- Lukoil: second largest company in Russia after Gazprom
- Gazprom: natural gas
- Lukoil: oil, making Lukiol the largest oil company in Russia
- Lukoil chairman on record as criticizing Putin's Ukraine invasion
Jobs report:
- this is not stagflation
- this is a latent rip-roaring economy with the Fed scared it can't hang on / control things, and the Biden administration getting ready to spend even more money
- for the past six months we've been told "the jobs number"is a lagging indicator, and that lagging indicator just keeps getting "better"
- stagflation: high unemployment, slow growth, and high inflation; we've got two of the three, and the third might be "relative"
- folks are freaking out over a 4%-Fed rate which might in fact be the Goldilocks number
**************************
Back to the Bakken
The Far Side: link here.
WTI: $86.43. China -- another Covid lockdown. Inexplicable. Or so some think.
Natural gas: $9.227
No wells coming off confidential list.
No wells coming off confidential list this week except for one on Friday, tomorrow.
RBN Energy: E&P shareholders reap soaring returns while producers boost cash balances.
Champagne corks were popping in E&P boardrooms and executive suites over the past few weeks as they unveiled record-high second-quarter 2022 earnings and cash flows. The strong financial results in the near-idyllic quarter — pre-tax operating earnings and cash flows surged by 29% and 22%, respectively, from the already elevated Q1 2022 levels — were driven by soaring commodity prices and producers’ strict financial discipline. And the celebrations weren’t limited to E&P headquarters. Shareholders have also benefited as companies passed on the unprecedented largess to their investors. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze how U.S. oil and gas producers distributed their soaring free cash flows and discuss the underlying corporate strategies.
Cash flow, 2Q22 -- RBN Energy -- link here.
NDIC Hearing Dockets -- September, 2022
The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.
The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.
Thursday, September 29, 2022
Supplement
Cases, not permits:
29629, NDIC, XTO, termination of the Grinnell-Bakken Unit, McKenzie, Williams;
Thursday, September 29, 2022
Fourteen pages
Cases, not permits:
- 29599, NDIC, XTO, termination of the Hofflund-Bakken Unit, McKenzie, Williams
- 29600, NDIC, Liberty Resources Management Co., LCC, review the pilot injection project; Haley 158-93-29-32-10MBH; sections 29/30/31/32-158-93; East Tioga-Bakken; Mountrail.
- 29601, NDIC, EOG Resources, review the pilot injection project; Burke 18-27H, SW/4 SE/4 of section 27-155-90, Mountrail
- 29602, Crescent Point Energy, Little Muddy and/or Winner-Bakken, establish eleven overlapping 2560-acre spacing units; approximately six wells; Williams County.
- 29603, CLR, Little Knife-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit, sections 14/15/22/23-146-97; one well; Dunn County;
- 29604, SHD Oil & Gas, LLC, Van Hook and/or Deep Water Creek Bay-Bakken, establish a 4160-acre unit, sections 15/16/17/18/19 and the N/2 of section 21-150-91; eight wells; McLean, Dunn counties. See graphic at this post.
- 29605, Slawson, Big Bend-Bakken, establish an overlappnig 2560-acre unit, sections 34/35-153-91 and sections 2/3-151-92; two wells; Mountrail County;
- 29606, Slawson, Bully-Bakken, twenty wells; see this post. McKenzie County;
- 29607, Hunt, Bailey, Wolf Bay and/or Werner-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, section 36-147-93 and sections 1/12-146-93; one well; ii) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, section s2/3/10/11-146-93; one well; iii) establish two overlapping 3840-acre units, sections 1/2/13- 146-93 and sectinos 6/7/18-146-92 and sectinos 24/25/26-146-93 and section s19/30/31-146-92, and one well between the two units; three wells; Dunn County;
- 29608, NDIC, Hardscrabble or Indian Hill-Bakken, consider altering spacing units in sections 1/12/13/24/25/36-153-102; Williams, McKenzie; affects Grayson Mill, RIM Operating, Oasis.
- 29609, Yellowstone River Beer, on Grayson Mill Operating,
- 29610, CLR, Little Knife-Bakken, nineteen wells, see this post.
- on an existing 1280-acre unit, sections 13/24-146-97, nine wells, Dunn County.
- on an existing 1280-acre unit, sections 14/23-146-97, ten wells, Dunn County.
- 29611, CLR, pooling,
- 29612, CLR, pooling,
- 29613, CLR, pooling,
- 29614, CLR, pooling,
- 29615, Slawson, pooling,
- 29616, Slawson, pooling,
- 29617, Slawson, pooling,
- 29618, Slawson, pooling,
- 29619, Slawson, pooling,
- 29620, Slawson, pooling,
- 29621, Slawson, pooling,
- 29622, Slawson, pooling,
- 29623, Slawson, pooling,
- 29624, XTO, flaring,
- 29625, XTO, commingling,
- 29626, XTO, commingling,
- 29627, EOG, commingling,
- 29628, Crescent Point Energy, SWD,
- 29629,
Wednesday, September 28, 2022
Twelve pages
Cases, not permits:
- 29558, NDIC, confiscation, Clean Petroleum Services, treating plant, SWSE section 25-150-100; McKenzie County
- 29559, NDIC, Grinnell-Bakken; review status of the leases in sections 30/31 within the 2560-acre unit described as sections 29/30/31/32-154-96, and the progress towards developing said sections 30/31 as a standup 1280-acre unit; McKenzie, Williams;
- 29560, Oasis, Bull Butte and/or Bonetrail-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sectiinos 3/4/9/10/15/16-156-102; one well; Williams County;
- 29561, Oasis, Bull Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 1920-acre unit, sections 4/9/16-156-102, four wells; Williams County;
- 29562, Oasis, Bull Butte-Bakken, one well
- 29563, Oasis, Bull Butte-Bakken, one well,
- 29564, Oasis, Bull Butte-Bakken, four wells:
- 29565, Mercury Resources, LLC, Rocky Hill-Madison, ten wells:
- 29566, Cornerstone Natural Resources LLC, Northeast Foothills-Bakken, three wells;
- 29567, MRO, Killdeer-Bakken;
- 29568, Hess, Tioga and/or White Earth-Bakken,
- 29569, Hess, Tioga-Bakken
- 29570, Hess, Big Butte and/or Alger-Bakken;
- 29571, Hess, Big Butte and/or Alger-Bakken,
- 29572, Cornerstone Natural Resources LLC, pooling,
- 29573, Cornerstone Natural Resources LLC, pooling,
- 29574, Cornerstone Natural Resources LLC, pooling,
- 29575, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, nine wells;
- 29576, Hess, Ross-Bakken six wells;
- 29577, Hess, pooling,
- 29578, Hess, pooling,
- 29579, Hess, pooling,
- 29580, Hess, commingling,
- 29581, Hess, commingling,
- 29582, Hess, commingling,
- 29583, Oasis, pooling,
- 29584, Oasis, pooling,
- 29585, Oasis, pooling,
- 29586, Oasis, pooling,
- 29587, Oasis, pooling,
- 29588, Grayson Mill, commingling,
- 29589, Whiting, commingling,
- 29590, Whiting, commingling,
- 29591, Ovintiv, commingling,
- 29592, MRO, Killdeer-Bakken, eight wells;
- 29593, MRO, pooling,
- 29594, MRO, pooling,
- 29595, MRO, pooling,
- 29596, MRO, commingling,
- 29597, MRO, commingling,
- 29598, MRO, commingling,