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Sunday, July 24, 2022

Focus On Fracking -- July 24, 2022

Link here.

Lede:

US oil supplies at new 18 year low, SPR at a 37 year low; DUC wells at an all time low, DUC backlog at 4.4 months. 

Always my favorite section:

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending July 15th indicated that despite another large oil withdrawal from the SPR and a sizable increase in oil supplies that could not be accounted for​, ​we needed to withdraw oil from our stored commercial crude supplies for the 3rd time in 7 weeks, and for the 20th time over the past 34 weeks, ​mostly because of a big increase in our oil exports…our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 156,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,519,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 164,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by 735,000 barrels per day to 3,759,000 barrels per day, which meant that our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 2,760,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending July 15th, 891,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week…over the same period, production of crude from US wells was reportedly 100,000 barrels per day lower at 11,900,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil and from domestic well production appears to have totaled an average of 14,660,000 barrels per day during the July 15th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,319,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending July 15th, an average of 321,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil than our refineries processed during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 778,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US....so based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures from the EIA for the week ending July 15th appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from oilfield production, and from storage was 881,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week…to account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (+881,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there must have been an omission or error of that magnitude in this week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed... however, since most everyone treats these weekly EIA reports as gospel, and since these figures often drive oil pricing, and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably accurate by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer)….

It Appears Whiting Is Fracking A Braaflat Well In The Parshall Oil Field -- July 24, 2022

This well has just gone off line, suggesting a newer Braaflat well is being fracked:

  • 17023, 2,669, Whiting, Braaflat 11-11H, Sanish, t5/08; cum 834K 2/21; huge bump in production without explanation back in 2012; just went off line; see this post; cum 843K 9/21; went off line 2/22; cum 848K 1/22; recent production;
  • the newer Braaflat well? #38321. In the Parshall oil field.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20222511391215711709160852
BAKKEN12-2021311233121981343233700
BAKKEN11-2021301279125682362635660
BAKKEN10-2021311284127290352234600
BAKKEN9-2021301154119779326732070
BAKKEN8-2021311253126966318531850

10X Jump In Production -- A Whiting Well In The Sanish -- July 24, 2022

A reader suggested that I note that not all Bakken wells are as good as this one.

The well:

  • 16902, 2,192, Whiting, Lacey 11-1H, Sanish, t7/08; cum 521K 12/20; one of the few wells that did not go off line, 5/20; just went off line 7/21; cum 522K 6/21; see this post; off line 8/21; remains off line 10/21; cum 540K 5/22;
  • how did this happen (see production profile below): now look at this well on that pad that was just fracked -- link here:

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202231275428541134169316310
BAKKEN4-2022282566248470415791386137
BAKKEN3-2022312663269812009278650
BAKKEN2-2022282467249195792382146
BAKKEN1-202231295129891161144113790
BAKKEN12-202131288127401486164515830
BAKKEN11-2021309308885695995400
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20211003000
BAKKEN7-202120276299813002919
BAKKEN6-20212532133017243640927
BAKKEN5-202131325340933073070
BAKKEN4-2021243833301166166160
BAKKEN3-20211758210100

A Whiting Littlefield Well Completed -- July 24, 2022

The reason I'm posting this well is to show the halo effect; see this post

This well:

  • 37599, drl/A, Whiting, Littlefield 41-2HU, Sanish, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 5/22; full production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2022312072620689591022678226399
BAKKEN4-2022282163921676574918153158292297
BAKKEN3-202230231592322010921160701597467
BAKKEN2-202216168591685054654490434
BAKKEN1-2022313524435280118292533025003297
BAKKEN12-2021313417934168140002494324609304
BAKKEN11-20212519043187232866112173121490

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- This Well Drilled In 2007 Just Went Over One Million Bbls Cumulative Crude Oil -- July 24, 2022

Updates

Septemeber 18, 2022: production since last update -- cum 1.047476 million bbls;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20223121772218669186675634182223580
BAKKEN6-20223023649236889979576922757328889
BAKKEN5-202231284272842710706651802943434372

Original Post

 A reader suggested that I point out that not all wells in the Bakken are this good. That is true. Some wells are better.

The well:

  • 16424, 700, Petro-Hunt, USA 11B-2-2H, Charlson, t7/07; cum 673K 4/20; off line 5/20; remains off line 12/20; two days in 7/20; significant decline beginning 4/20; cum 805K 10/21; see this post; cum 1.002055 million bbls 5/22; 
  • FracFocus:1/1/21 - 1/5/21; 8.0 million gallons of water; 90.3% fresh water by mass;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202231284272842710706651802943434372
BAKKEN4-20222927759276719962572502235033690
BAKKEN3-202231304303038110061603904166216932
BAKKEN2-2022282655126758910150098400098110
BAKKEN1-202231298032960010621529693455810992
BAKKEN12-20213127423275439875463782961311296
BAKKEN11-202130265972657010301429652544610082
BAKKEN10-20213121389213091035832733202847206
BAKKEN9-20213022350223671143434031201448703
BAKKEN8-20213123235231381414835925203089981
BAKKEN7-202131251572536717918402281874115300
BAKKEN6-20213013371131881406220318127575327
BAKKEN5-20213114470145231671618182132023630
BAKKEN4-2021251151411390197381750075629764
BAKKEN3-2021185028513130313
BAKKEN2-20211800000
BAKKEN1-2021172100000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-202011040121840177
BAKKEN8-202021380381200
BAKKEN7-20202240479191250125
BAKKEN6-2020114003066066
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20202890010593483910196
BAKKEN3-20203114521403626280302593
BAKKEN2-20202918991949701263802436
BAKKEN1-20203121692142740281402598
BAKKEN12-20193121902220940310302887

Upwards Of A Dozen CLR Whitman Wells Being Fracked -- July 24, 2022

See this link.

The phenomenal CLR Whitman wells are tracked here.

A reader suggested I put a note for newbies that not all Bakken wells are as good as the CLR Whitman wells. Okay. That would be true.

I noticed today that an old CLR Whitman well is now off line. That often means on thing. 

The well:

  • 20210, IA/803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, s1/11; t9/11; cum 1.741714 million bbls 9/20; 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs; middle Bakken; runs south; 4-section spacing; one well on an Eco-Pad; 12K/month as of 5/16; off-line as of 8/16; see this post; back on line 8/18; producing 10K/month as of 5/19; off line as of 4/22; cum 1.789484 million bbls 3/22

There's some fracking activity in the area. It looks like all/most the wells on that pad are being taken off line.

My hunch: the new CLR Whitman wells in this area are being fracked. See the links above. I checked FracFocus for one the new CLR Whitman wells; no frack data yet.

Cleaning Off Desktop -- Sunday, July 24, 2022

Not ready for prime-time

There will be typographical and content errors.  

Nothing about the Bakken.

Reading:

  • I'm still trying to read one book a week this summer, and currently meeting that goal. I finished two books this past week, though I read (past tense) only portions of both. 
  • I started a third earlier today and will easily finish that book this week.

NASCAR: wow, wow, wow --- update -- both Denny Hamlin and runner-up Kyle Busch disqualified after Pocono win. Chase Elliott now the winner but this can all be appealed. This was not helpful:

According to NASCAR, the infractions on the No. 11 Toyota driven by Hamlin and the No. 18 Toyota driven by Busch both concerned the aerodynamics in the front fascia, though Cup Series managing director Brad Morgan did not offer specifics on what the exact infraction was in comments made to the media.

"There really was no reason why there was some material that was somewhere where it shouldn't have been. And that does basically come down to a DQ," Moran said. Kamala-Harris-speak.

  • wow, wow, wow - the big story this week will be the Ross Chastain - Denny Hamlin feud -- well, that's no longer true -- the DQ of both Hamlin and Kyle Busch will be the big story.
  • saw the race today; early on a minor incident involving Chastain / Hamlin; probably "caused" by Chastain; no harm/no foul but that "incident" apparenlty led to a race-ending incident for Chastain late in the 160-lap race; lap 143 re-start;
    • Chastain incredibly noble in the post-accident interview
    • Hamlin, not so much, in the post-race interview
  • I've looked at the re-play a dozen times; I don't see the problem; sure, it's Chastain - Hamlin again, but they were racing hard -- but no harder than usual -- for the lead and Chastain "lost control"
  • I understand the sentiment but I didn't see the controversy in that particular "incident" -- in fact, I can't even call it an "incident" -- simply racing
  • but we're going to hear a lot about it
  • this was from July 10, 2022, well before this race.

PGA:

  • I missed the most exciting hole of the tournament today
  • it was Piercy's tournament to win and it appeared obvious he was going to win after the eleventh or twelfth hole so I lost interest, and went back to NASCAR
  • at end of NASCAR I went back to the PGA assuming they must still be playing
  • I was surprised it was over
  • more surprised when I saw Piercy not only lost but slipped to tied for fourth with three others (in other words, placed somewhere between fourth and sixth)
  • he triple-bogeyed the fourteenth
  • will re-watch the tournament later tonight
  • Later: wow, I got back from swimming just in time to see the back nine of the final round of the tournament. Piercy's lead "is reduced to four." He had a couple of late bogeys in the front nine, back-to-back bogeys, #8 and #9. This going to be fantastic.

Millionaire by mid-30s:

  • I normally don't read these articles, but for some reason I read it this time; link here;
  • I don't know; I think it's worth a read;
  • see what you think
  • a very, very minor point and not the reason to read the story: I'm not convinced he retired;
    • I think a better "summary" would be this:
    • both he and his wife worked; no kids; did not live beyond their means
    • made huge salaries near their mid-30's
    • had a million dollars in investments by the mid-30's
    • so, he moved on; I doubt he's retired; my hunch, now making as much money than ever, as a consultant, speaker, writer, blogger, investor

Betting the farm on EV:

  • I normally don't read these articles either, but this one ...
  • link here;
  • automobile manufacturers are going to rue the day they bet the farm on EVs
  • the tipping point for me? Ford laying off ("nice phrase" for firing) 8,000 workers to save money on their "cash cow" operations to fund a project that will probably end up costing them their company
  • now, there, I've said it
  • I'll tag this to check back in ten years
  • warning: I post a lot regarding EVs, and I'm not impressed with the sector

Not EVs, not related, but still autos:

  • one person's opinion; if you go to the link, be sure to read the comments to get the rest of the story
  • Graham Stephan and "the Fed" may be looking at different numbers; comparing apples and oranges
  • who are you going to believe?
  • one may want to explore Graham Stephan's agenda

Reminder: Bureau of Economic Analysis, calendar here;

  • GDP, 2Q22, advance estimate: Thursday, July 28, 2022; 8:30 a.m. ET
  • personal income and outlays for June, 2022: July 29, 2022: 8:30 a.m. ET
  • GDP (second estimate) and corporate profits (preliminary), 2Q22: August 25, 2022

Recession:

  • one person's opinion, link here;
  • doesn't matter what he thinks;
  • recession or no recession? It will be the headline writers and television talking heads that decide:
  • NYT, Washinton Post, MSNBC, CNBC, ABC Nightly News with David Muir: the deciders

Buffett:

  • another value blog
  • what is Buffett seeing in energy
  • I have not read all of this yet but based on what little I've read and the source of the link, it's a must-read
  • again, I have no idea what Andrew Walker@AndrewRangely thinks, but looking forward to the article; I see there are a few comments at the end of the article; will probably be helpful in helping to make sense of the article
  • my hunch: Andrew Walker@AndrewRangely knows as much about Buffett's thought on energy which I just posted the other day;

Texas miners:

  • the other day when writing about the regional energy grids, I said:
    • Texas: has a DEMAND problem, not a SUPPLY problem;
    • ISO-NE, ISO-NY have a SUPPLY problem, not a DEMAND problem
  • as I wrote yesterday:
    • five years from now, Texas will not have a grid problem, and electricity will be stunningly inexpensive;
    • five years from now, nothing will have changed in New England, New York
    • five years from now, the energy issue in California will be worse
  • right now, on a late Sunday evening:
    • electricity is still $400 / MWh in ISO-NE;
    • "Capital-F" in NY-ISO, again on a low-demand late Sunday evening, $355 / MWh
  • anyway, back to Texas miners
  • a reader sent me a link to TexasMontly.com, "Bitcoin Miners Could Save the Texas Grid -- Or Sink It"
  • bulls-eye
  • paywalled; I was able to access the entire article and will archive it
  • I will come back to it later as a stand-alone post; archived.

The Apple Page:

  • comparing the M2 MacBook Air with the M1 MacBook Air; link here.
  • echoes what I wrote earlier: the older M1 MacBook Air is the better deal
  • although it won't matter at all, the older M1 Air is slightly faster than the brand new M2 Air due to a design feature that does not seem to make sense
    • maybe someone will explain why Tim Cook went with this design feature
    • it seems to be a step backward
    • if so, Steve Jobs never would have done it

TikTok:

  • just for the fun of it: work smarter, not harder: link here;
  • yes, I know, not TikTok but could have been

Alzheimer's:

  • looks like another fraud; link here.
  • full article at dailykos here.
  • two decades of Alzheimer's research may be based on deliberate fraud that has cost millions of lives
  • one doesn't write that headline or that kind of story without being sure of the facts;
  • huge liability issue for any suggestion of libel

***************************
The Book Page

The two books I finished this week were both on flutes:

  • On Playing the Flute: The Classic of Baroque Music Instruction, Johann Joachim Quantz, translated from the German, first published in English, 1966, if I read it correctly, and first published in 1752, Berlin.
  • The Flue Book: A Complete Guide for Students and Performers, Nancy Toff, multiple copyrights, earliest, 1985

The book I will be reading this week:

  • On Rare Birds, Anita Albus, translated from the German by Gerald Chapple, c. 2005 by Albus; copyright 2011 by Chapple;

Word for the day: nidifugous. That is the correct spelling. It seems there should be another "u" in the word.

Some internet sites suggest "nidifugous" and "precocial" are synonyms. They are not: all nidifugous birds are precocial, but not all precocial birds are nidifugous.

I might look it up later but I bet dinosaurs, in general, were precocial but probably not nidifugous.

An Armstrong Gruman Well Drilled In 2010 Just Went Over One Million Bbls Crude Oil -- July 24, 2022

The well:

  • 18496, 474, Armstrong Operating, Gruman 18-3, Patterson Lake, t3/10; F; cum 971K 1/20; still producing upwards of 4,000 bbls of oil per month; 1/20; ccum 1.041508 million bbls 5/22;

Note something else about this well?

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
LODGEPOLE5-2022311920195026708887450
LODGEPOLE4-2022301844181622448647260
LODGEPOLE3-2022312012201721809287850
LODGEPOLE2-2022281892195818268537240
LODGEPOLE1-2022312081201818029317880
LODGEPOLE12-2021312152215217529508070
LODGEPOLE11-20213020812083151310338950
LODGEPOLE10-20213122292229151910388950
LODGEPOLE9-20213022112212125910288900
LODGEPOLE8-20213122962295116210799360
LODGEPOLE7-20213123292332100510799360
LODGEPOLE6-202130229222949048176790

In 2019, This Well Looked Like It Was On Its Last Legs -- Then Scout Energy Mangement Took Over -- July 24, 2022

The well:

  • 14212, 4,331, Scout Energy/Denbury, Heart River 1-4, Lodgepole, Stadium, t11/96, cum 2.215332 million 8/19; it looks like this well is on its last legs; cum 2.242130 million bbls 5/22; directional, running from southwest to northeast; TD: 10,620 feet;

Production, 2017 - 2019:

LODGEPOLE8-201969038531309750050
LODGEPOLE7-20190000000
LODGEPOLE6-20190000000
LODGEPOLE5-201913000000
LODGEPOLE4-20196000000
LODGEPOLE3-20190000000
LODGEPOLE2-20190000000
LODGEPOLE1-20190000000
LODGEPOLE12-20180000000
LODGEPOLE11-201811050948000
LODGEPOLE10-20180000000
LODGEPOLE9-20180000000
LODGEPOLE8-20180000000
LODGEPOLE7-201800060000
LODGEPOLE6-20185000000
LODGEPOLE5-20187000000
LODGEPOLE4-20180000000
LODGEPOLE3-20180000000
LODGEPOLE2-20180000000
LODGEPOLE1-201822365435172364380438
LODGEPOLE12-201731643650313546170617

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
LODGEPOLE5-2022311010885680294620462
LODGEPOLE4-20222910271102576844320432
LODGEPOLE3-20229414451189601340134
LODGEPOLE2-2022271053881561213430343
LODGEPOLE1-20220000000
LODGEPOLE12-20210000000
LODGEPOLE11-202161472196826000
LODGEPOLE10-202120421454214451790179
LODGEPOLE9-202130575674336172880288
LODGEPOLE8-202131606647385973080308
LODGEPOLE7-20213159364237561298029