A Closer Look At The 70-Acre Parcel Whiting Bought For $2.346 Million -- July 15, 2022

See this post. 

A closer look at the 70-acre parcel for which Whiting paid $2.346 million.

Operators target EURs of one million bbls/well.

But let's take a look at wells with EURs of 500K.

1280 acres
500,000 bbls
$100 / bbl
$50,000,000

70/1280 = 5%

5% x $50 million = $2.7 million

12 wells x $50 million = $600 million

5% x $600 million = $30 million

Paid $2.346 million for the 70-acre parcel.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

I often make simple arithmetic errors. 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Week 28: July 10, 2022 -- July 16, 2022.

Top story of the week:

• Joe Biden is still president.
• Lost in translation: Saudi Arabia said no more oil; Biden misunderstood.
  

Top international non-energy story:

• The Ukraine war drags on.
• President Biden visits the Mideast -- says MBS is still a pariah.
  

Top international energy story:

•  

Top national non-energy story:

• "January 6th" hearings continue — compelling.

Top national energy story:

• WTI drops below $100; trends toward $90 before recovering to close at $98;
  

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

This Is Where We Are -- July 15, 2022

This may or may not sink in by Monday.

Seven New Permits; Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 15, 2022

Canoo: US Army selects Canoo's multi-purpose platform for analysis and demonstration.

Uniper: has begun withdrawing winter natural gas with urgent bailout needed. Bloomberg.

Uniper: German utility giant at risk of "insolvency within days." Link here. From wiki:

Uniper SE is an energy company based in Düsseldorf, Germany. 

Uniper was formed by the separation of E.ON's fossil fuel assets into a separate company that began operating on 1 January 2016.

The company employs about 11,000 employees in over 40 countries. Around one third of the employees are based in Germany. 

It owns a subsidiary company in Russia called Unipro. 

Uniper is listed at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Its largest shareholder is the Finnish energy company Fortum with a 75.01% stake. 

The company has faced criticism for opening new coal-fueled power plants in Germany as recently as May 2020. 

Uniper was one of the financiers of the Nord Stream 2 project, which the German government suspended after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. 

Uniper announced on 28 April 2022 that it will pay for Russian gas in roubles giving in to Russian demands and helping to undercut EU sanctions on Russia.

Big Oil: poised for "exceptional" earnings based on strong refining margins -- sources.

********************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $98.12.

Natural gas: $6.954.

NDIC GIS map: in-op. 

Active rigs: 43 or thereabouts. 

From a reader: the rig that was added in North Dakota was targeting the Bakken shale in the Williston basin, but the Williston basin count remained unchanged because a Williston basin rig was pulled out of Montana at the same time, which isn't show in the report.

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/static-files/f0a1dad9-ea32-4b0d-b73c-bfc151a18db0.

Seven new permits, #39090 - #39096, inclusive:

• Operators: Kraken (5); CLR (2)
• Fields: Burg (Williams County); Dollar Joe (Williams)
• Comments:
• Kraken has permits for two Lyman wells; one Elias well, one Sidney well, and one Jenna well, SESE 20-159-99;
• to be sited 665 FSL and between 638 FEL and 737 FEL
• CLR has permits for two Colette wells; NENW 18-155-96; 
• to be sited between 384 FNL and 437 FNL and between 2243 FWL and 2316 FWL

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as complete:

• 38312, 3,489, MRO, Emmet 44-23H, Bailey, first production, 2/22; t--; cum 114K 5/22;
  
• 38313, 3,786, MRO, Mastel 14-24TFH, Bailey, first production, 2/22; t--; cum 5/22;
  
• 38314, 4,814, MRO, Cameron 14-24H, Bailey, first production, 2/22; t--; cum 133K 5/22;
  
• 38571, 753, MRO, Ermina 31-13TFH, Bailey, first production, 3/22; t--; cum 24K 5/22;
  
• 38557, 253, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Pankake 2-6-7-157N-99W-MBH-LL, Dublin, no production data;

Other wells of interest:

• 16736: t1/08; cum 486K 5/22; see this post; a re-fracked MRO Bailey well;
• 25481: t10/13; cum 373K 2/22: remains off line;
• 25482: t10/13; cum 312K 2/22; remains off line;
• 25483: t10/13; cum 203K 12/21; remains off line;
• 25484: t10/13; cum 151K 5/22; no halo effect;

Halo effect:
16736: t1/08; cum 486K 5/22; definite halo effect;

BAKKEN	9-2019	30	11859	11995	12284	16053	4345	10362
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	14687	14591	15873	18741	16230	964
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	18771	18878	22079	23061	17102	4143
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	22893	22808	31176	20766	14015	4676
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	24374	24525	46403	19440	10248	6967
BAKKEN	4-2019	26	29475	29535	90245	20752	5344	12964
BAKKEN	3-2019	5	4502	3755	20278	3154	557	2030
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	1	23	440	3	19	6	9
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	844	680	243	786	420	128
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	817	910	143	766	478	58
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	837	1103	138	797	530	29

Initial production:

• 38312:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	33647	33590	29576	30498	28949	375
BAKKEN	4-2022	28	30889	30924	34075	26495	24841	594
BAKKEN	3-2022	30	43302	43088	58891	36235	34793	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	23	6168	6059	15541	4350	4172	0

• 38313:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	30225	30169	32013	27994	26579	352
BAKKEN	4-2022	28	27265	27306	33020	24799	23288	555
BAKKEN	3-2022	30	39526	39582	50367	31579	30293	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	8	19846	19495	32708	12335	11793	0

• 38314:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	32823	32783	26886	29753	28211	396
BAKKEN	4-2022	28	31830	31841	25993	27195	25526	577
BAKKEN	3-2022	30	41193	41365	37768	33448	32063	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	9	27090	26611	28458	16855	16134	0

Odds And Ends -- Rambling -- On Investing -- July 15, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Einstein: “The most powerful force in the Universe is compound interest.” He referred to it as one of the greatest “miracles” known to man.

Perhaps. As an investor, I would argue dividends are even better. What's the interest rate on your savings account? 

I continue to remain fully invested, and add to my holdings twice a month, buying shares during the first week of the month, and around the second and third week of the month. 

Once the economy started to go sideways, I changed my new allocations to:

• 50%: Buffett-like stocks; dividend-paying blue chip; value stocks; currently focusing on Big Cap that might do well in an economy coming out of a recession;
• 30%: tech, particularly semiconductors / chips
• 20%: energy, oil and gas; not renewable energy

Earlier this week I added to my TSM.

Today, we learn that Nancy Pelosi revealed that of yesterday she had a new multi-million dollar position in Nvidia. This may or may not be true. Link here.

From June 23, 2022, just a few weeks ago:

They're reading the blog: earlier today -- or was it yesterday -- I asked rhetorically whatever happened to Biden's plan to jump-start the US semi-conductor sector. 

I had not seen a thing. Now this, link here. This is absolutely amazing: my twitter feed keeps telling me how great the DEMS are and here we have the US Congress unable to get their act together. Truly amazing. For those who have forgotten, the DEMS control the White House and the US Congress, both houses. 

So, with the news that Pelosi has a new multi-million dollar position in Nvidia, it looks like the bill is about to be law.

Wow. 

From my perspective, if Nancy Pelosi's "reveal" raises the attractiveness of Nvidia, that should also positively affect other semiconductor / chip companies. 

Black swans and other birds. Definition of black swan here. I don't know what the opposite of a black swan is, and I don't know if Nancy Pelosi's "reveal" would qualify. Doesn't matter.

A reader once told me that folks who cannot read / do not read / cannot comprehend / do not understand financial statements should not do their "own investing."

I remember doing my homework decades ago when I made my first position in Exxon for our older daughter. The next day: Valdez.

Break, break.

I love dividends. A lot of folks don't. Some prefer capital gains instead. 

For those who prefer dividends, three recent articles:

• six cheap dividend stocks ...., Investor Place, April 7, 2022:
• seven dividend aristocrats ... Investor Place, February 14, 2022;
• six undervalued Dow stocks ... Investor Place, July 13, 2022.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

**************************
TSM Earnings

Link here.

• TSMC, the worlds biggest chipmaker, posted record net profit in the second quarter.
• However, TSMC CEO CC Wei said that some of the company’s capital expenditure would be “pushed out into 2023.”
• The strong results and outlook, but caution on spending, highlights the careful path chipmakers are walking at a time of concern about rising prices and the impact on consumer demand.
• key numbers for the three months ended June 30:
• Revenue of 534.14 billion Taiwanese dollars ($18.16 billion), a rise 43.5% year-on-year. That beat the 524.02 billion Taiwan dollar average from analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv.
• Net income of 237.03 billion Taiwanese dollars, up 76.4% year-on-year and ahead of estimates. That was a record quarter in terms of net income for TSMC.
• The company which is Apple’s most important chip supplier, said it expects revenue to be between $19.8 billion and $20.6 billion in the third quarter, surging from $14.8 billion in the same period last year.
  

Media Have Released The Kraken! Most Infectious Covid Variant Now Reported -- July 15, 2022

Regardless of what the media is reporting, here is the CDC data.

Link here. 

If you look at the CDC data at the link, with regard to respiratory illnesses, the US population has never looked so healthy, so resilient.

Re-Posting / Updating: Observations Of The Open As We Come To The End Of The Second Day -- July 15, 2022

Updates

Later, 5:35 p.m CT: from TV sports talk:

• The Open has now become the PGA vs the LIV tournament
  
• the PGA did not have a good day: they lost their best draw: Tiger Woods
• Rory is now carrying the flag for the PGA
• talking heads noted that NBC completely ignored the LIV players playing The Open
• amazing that some talking heads did not notice that (wow -- what were they watching?)

Later, 3:25 p.m. CT:

• Bryson DeChambeau will make the cut, at -1; on the second day, dropped 43 places down to tied at #56.
• Mickelson: at +5 missed the cut and was tied at #126 at the end of the second round.
• there's a reason Mickelson jumped ship, from the PGA to the LIV
• Tiger Woods: finished the second round, +9; tied at 148 in a field of 156.

Later, 11:03 a.m. CT: two developments. 

• Dustin Johnson is in third place but his name has not been mentioned since he dropped out of first place earlier this morning. 
• Fifteenth hole: finally, for the first time in two day, video of Phil Mickelson, +4. Brief commentary: "yesterday, a so-so day; today, not as good." For the PGA / NBC partnership, Mickelson is history.
• Tiger Woods is history, also, but for different reasons.
  

Original Post

The Open:  I could be wrong but I don't believe I saw Phil Mickelson or Bryson DeChambeau at The Open yesterday.

• Not one video of either and no mention of either. I must have watched 90% of The Open live and in re-play and I saw neither. But they are playing: Mickelson is tied for 55 and DeChambeau is tied for 22. 
• With the long history of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson over the decades, with this likely being Tiger Woods' swan song, it would only make sense to see lots of Phil Mickelson
• In addition, Phil Mickelson is a prior champion at The Open, having won in 2013. 
  
• Bryson is always a "must-see" and due to a hand injury he hasn't been seen in quite some time; likewise, I would have expected to see a lot of him.  
• I haven't paid attention, but I don't believe I've seen Brooks Koepka either, but he's tied for 82.
• Ditto, Kevin Na, tied for 89th place.
• Ditto, Patrick Reed, tied for 51st.
• Ditto, Sergio Garcia, tied for 24th.
• But we've seen every Korean, multiple times.
• And we're going to see a lot of Dustin Johnson, currently leading The Open and likely to win. 
• It would be impossible to ignore the player at the top of the leaderboard. 
• But Taylor Gooch, tied at #3 is also almost a ghost. 
  
• Link here.
  
• My hunch: a certain NBC analyst "called" the shots.
  
• Bryson tees off at 12:53 p.m. CT today.
• Mickelson is on the course (7:15 a.m. CT) and is on the second hole.
• No post-play interview.
• Wow.
• With two LIV players in the top five early in the second round, a great story line for NBC would be the "PGA vs LIV." LOL.
  
• Tiger watch here.
  
• Woods' second round is half over; he has dropped two more places, now tied for 148 in a field of 156. He added one more stroke to his final round, and is now +7 teeing off at #14.
  
• The cut will be "par" today.

The Top Five / Ten To Watch In The Bakken -- July 15, 2022

This is preliminary. I've not compared any of "the numbers" recently. So this is all subjective.

But this would be my top five list for the Bakken, subjective:

• CLR
• Hess
• Chord Energy
• BR
• XTO

Next five, again subjective:

• MRO
• WPX
• Enerplus
  
• Ovintiv
• Petro-Hunt

Others:

• Slawson
• Zavanna

TGIF -- Odds And Ends -- Nothing About The Bakken -- July 15, 2022

WTI: mid-day, on a Friday, WTI is up almost 3%; up almost $3.00; trading at $98.61.

BNPL: a new wrinkle with "buy now pay later."

• our apartment complex manager has partnered with a lending company that will pay one's rent automatically on the first of each month;
• the renter will then have all month to pay back the lender
• in other words, renters can now pay their monthly rent on a weekly or even daily basis
• it also makes it easier for unrelated roommates to share rent costs
  
• "enroll for a small monthly fee" -- which is not disclosed until you enroll
  

Tanks: huge; link here to Peter Zeihan:

• at the link, be sure to read the comments;
• Poland to buy 116 used Abrams tanks from the US
• this frees up Poland to send all its preexisting tank stocks to Ukraine
• WW-iii expands

Masks are back: Los Angeles County will mandate masks again on/about July 29, 2022. 

• Most of the rext of California will probably say "nyet" to Newsom on masks.

Surge: see state-by-state surge in Covid the past month or so.

• California's numbers continue to rise;
• Texas: subtle but it looks like numbers continue to rise slowly;
• Florida: also subtle but it looks like Florida's numbers have peaked and are now dropping again;

Chrome: wow, wow, wow! This is amazing. How many old Macs are sitting around your home not being used because they don't have the chip / memory needed for new MacOS updates. I can't wait to get this firestick from Amazon and see if I can "re-vive" an old massive desktop. This would be huge. Link here.

• from Google: ChromeOS Flex
• will replace the operating system of older PCs and Macs that turns these old bricks into Chromebooks
• a bootable USB stick
• Chrome cloud-first operating system
• this is simply brilliant
• Macs released after 2010 with 16 GB of free storage
• universally panned by those commenting at the link; that's fine.
• I wonder if my old massive desktop would still work as a "streaming" monitor only?
  

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- July 15, 2022

Updates

Later, 11:03 a.m. CT: two developments. 

• Dustin Johnson is in third place but his name has not been mentioned since he dropped out of first place earlier this morning. 
• Fifteenth hole: finally, for the first time in two day, video of Phil Mickelson, +4. Brief commentary: "yesterday, a so-so day; today, not as good." For the PGA / NBC partnership, Mickelson is history.
  

Original Post

The Open:  I could be wrong but I don't believe I saw Phil Mickelson or Bryson DeChambeau at The Open yesterday. 

• Not one video of either and no mention of either. I must have watched 90% of The Open live and in re-play and I saw neither. But they are playing: Mickelson is tied for 55 and DeChambeau is tied for 22. 
• With the long history of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson over the decades, with this likely being Tiger Woods' swan song, it would only make sense to see lots of Phil Mickelson
• In addition, Phil Mickelson is a prior champion at The Open, having won in 2013. 
  
• Bryson is always a "must-see" and due to a hand injury he hasn't been seen in quite some time; likewise, I would have expected to see a lot of him.  
• I haven't paid attention, but I don't believe I've seen Brooks Koepka either, but he's tied for 82.
• Ditto, Kevin Na, tied for 89th place.
• Ditto, Patrick Reed, tied for 51st.
• Ditto, Sergio Garcia, tied for 24th.
• But we've seen every Korean, multiple times.
• And we're going to see a lot of Dustin Johnson, currently leading The Open and likely to win. 
• It would be impossible to ignore the player at the top of the leaderboard. 
• But Taylor Gooch, tied at #3 is also almost a ghost. 
  
• Link here.
  
• My hunch: a certain NBC analyst "called" the shots.
  
• Bryson tees off at 12:53 p.m. CT today.
• Mickelson is on the course (7:15 a.m. CT) and is on the second hole.
• No post-play interview.
• Wow.
• With two LIV players in the top five early in the second round, a great story line for NBC would be the "PGA vs LIV." LOL.
  
• Tiger watch here.
  
• Woods' second round is half over; he has dropped two more places, now tied for 148 in a field of 156. He added one more stroke to his final round, and is now +7 teeing off at #14.
  
• The cut will be "par" today.
  

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here. 

WTI: $97.09.

Natural gas: $6.480

Active rigs: 45 or thereabouts.

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: US efforts to punish Russia echo response to 1973 oil embargo. 

The global reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was swift, with calls of condemnation and plans quickly surfacing for the U.S. and other countries to stop their purchases of Russian crude oil and natural gas immediately, or at least as soon as practical. The strategy has been to make the situation as politically and financially painful as possible for Russia, which has not been shy about using its energy supplies as a weapon, before or after the invasion. But those plans haven’t worked as well as hoped, and some impacts are bringing back memories of the 1973 oil embargo which, though driven by a far different series of events, may provide insight into the current situation. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the many parallels to today, including weaponized oil, regional supply shortages, price spikes and well-intentioned (if sometimes ill-conceived) government responses.