Monday, April 4, 2022
Exxon Looking For Windfall Profits Tax Like Never Seen Before -- April 4, 2022
Re-posting:
US:
Exxon Mobil Corp on Monday said its first-quarter results could top a seven-year quarterly record, with operating profits from pumping oil and gas alone of up to $9.3 billion.
A snapshot of the largest U.S. oil company's quarter ended March 31 showed operating profits from oil and gas, its biggest unit, could jump by as much as $2.7 billion over the prior quarter's $6.6 billion.
Exxon does not hedge, or lock in oil sales, and results generally match changes in energy prices.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed up oil by 45% last quarter over the final period of 2021, to an average of $114 per barrel, the highest in seven years.
Tale Of Two Countries -- April 4, 2022
France:
- four stories coming out of France:
US:
- one story coming out of the US:
- Exxon signals record quarterly profit from oil and gas prices: source;
As I told a reader, pardon the "French," but this is the year that the "sh*t" is going to hit the fan.
It's gonna be Greta Thunberg and John Kerry for the French against Harold Hamm, et al, for the Americans. I could be wrong but I believe I read somewhere Greta never took a high school math course. Needs to be fact-checked.
Regardless, the French are going to find out how expensive renewable energy really is.
Ten Permits Renewed; One New Permit; Three DUCs Reported As Completed; And WTI At $105 -- April 4, 2022
Active rigs:
| $105.30 | 4/4/2022 | 04/04/2021 | 04/04/2020 | 04/04/2019 | 04/04/2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 35 | 13 | 44 | 62 | 56 |
One permit approved, #38867:
- Operator: Prima Exploration
- Field: Alexandria (Divide)
- Comments:
- Prima has a Yogi Bear State permit in SWSE 36-161-100;
- to be sited 350 FSL and 1499 FEL;
Ten permits renewed:
- RimRock (4): four SKunk Creek permits in Dunn County
- Petro-Hunt (3): three Watterud permits in Divide County
- NP Resources (3) three Gracie State permits in Billings County
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 37795, 284, Koda Resources, Stout 3409-1BH,
- 37797, 336, Koda Resources, Stout 3410-2BH,
- 37798, 516, Koda Resources, Stout 3427-3BH,
Notable: ten wells temporarily abandoned and well plugged by EOG:
- six Wayzetta wells;
- one Liberty, one van Hook, one Parshall, and one Fertile well;
- all in Dunn County
Correct Me If I'm Wrong, But Weren't We Here Before the Biden Surge Announcement? WTI At $105 -- April 4, 2022
Updates
Later, 9:37 p.m. CT:
Original Post
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't WTI at $105 when President Biden announced the biggest ever SPR release -- releasing in six months what it took 38 years to build and maintain? But correct me I'm wrong, wasn't WTI at $105 when President Biden made that announcement on the advice of his SecEnergy, a former beauty pageant champion? I could be wrong, but it seems it was $105.
Now, we posted this chart yesterday but it's been updated. US shale operators must be salivating. High crude oil prices for as long as the eye can see, again, thanks to President Biden upon advice from his SecEnergy, the former beauty queen pageant champion.
But look at that, up $4.00 / bbl just a few months from now. In October / November, 2022, when folks are voting, WTI up over $3.00 / bbl.
Futures:
I mean, these numbers simply blow me away. For consumers? High prices at the pump for as long as the eye can see.
With numbers like these, Saudi Arabia doesn't even have to react to the Biden Surge. The market is doing that for them.
The only good news: at least "we" have energy -- more than can be said for the French. More on that later.
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In Reply
See first comment. The comment section won't load links, so I brought the comment up here. This should give readers something to do today.
Oil prices rose in pre-inventory trading early Wednesday after preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated US oil stockpiles decreased by a larger-than-expected margin while the US dollar fell to a 13 day low, and then extended their rally after the EIA reported US crude stockpiles fell by a bigger-than-expected 3.4 million barrels, cutting available inventories to their lowest since September 2018, and finished trading $3.58 higher at $107.82 per barrel...
... but oil prices fell more than $5 early Thursday following reports that the Biden administration was considering the release of up to 180 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next six months to try to lower oil prices and settled down $7.54, or 7%, at $100.28 a barrel, after touching a low of $99.66 a barrel after Biden announced the largest ever release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and called on oil companies to increase drilling to boost supply...
... oil prices moved lower again on Friday as the member nations behind the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to join in the largest-ever strategic oil reserves release, and settled $1.01 or 1% lower at $99.27 a barrel, after global manufacturers reported slower growth and far more pessimistic expectations for factory activity in March than at any other time this year.
RMDs: The Rules Now -- April 4, 2022
RMDs: link here.
Investopedia: the rules now.
Too late for me, but this is interesting. One can disclaim an "inherited IRA." By doing so, the "inherited IRA" will pass to the next beneficiary (beneficiaries). My children are very likely in a lower income tax bracket, and if they disclaim the IRA, certainly their children are in a lower tax bracket, though those under the age of 14 years of age will be in the same tax bracket as their parents. Needs to be fact checked -- I'm not a financial-type person. Don't make any financial decisions based on what I post; if this is important to you, see the original source (the IRS) and talk with your financial consultant and tax preparer. Or just do what you want and wait for the audit, or not.
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The TV Page
I've started binge watching Cheers.
From the internet today:
Right now you can watch Cheers on Hulu Plus or Paramount+. You are able to stream Cheers by renting or purchasing on Google Play, Vudu, iTunes, and Amazon Instant Video.
I haven't watched "new" television in years so I can't compare the "old" with the "new" but I'm thinking Cheers may simply be the best of the "old."
Among the old, ranked in "my" order:
- Cheers.
- 30 Rock.
- That 70s Show.
- Home Improvement.
- Frasier.
- Seinfeld.
- Malcolm in The Middle.
- Arrested Development.
- Mash.
- The Big Bang Theory.
- Mary Tyler Moore.
That list is "difficult," comparing apples with oranges.
Perhaps two lists:
- Cheers.
And then all the rest.
Rolling Stone: 100 best sitcoms.
Wow, am I good or what? Whoo-hoo!
Rolling Stone ranked The Simpsons #1 and Cheers #2.
Can't disagree. But they are in two different categories.
Later: "The Best TV Show That's Ever Been" -- GQ -- September 27, 2012.
Automobile Manufacturing In Germany -- April 4, 2022
A reader submits a very interesting observation in response to this earlier post:
German stoppage:
- BMW has halted production at two German factories;
- Mercedes is slowing work at its assembly plants;
- Volkswagen, warning of production stoppages, is looking for alternative sources for part
- Putin's War
- source here or go direct to ABCNews.
The reader's observation: is this a parts shortage or has electricity become prohibitively expensive to continued? The US does not have an electricity price or energy issue, but even so, there were news reports that several automotive plants in the US were set to shut down this week.
So, for Germany: probably both -- a parts problem as well as high-priced electricity.
LNG Export Terminal At Cameron To Expand: Sempra, Others -- April 4, 2022
US LNG export terminals are tracked here.
Cameron LNG phase 2:
- Sempra Energy enters deal with TotalEnergies, other; link here;
- to add a fourth train; increase capacity on existing three trains;
- Sempra:
- 50.2% of the projected fourth train production;
- 25% of projected de-bottlenecking capacity under tolling agreements;
- the fourth train to add a maximum production capacity of 6.75 metric tons / year
Other Sempra news: signed two MOUs last week:
- one for Sempra's Paciifico LNG project in Mexico; and,
- another for Total's proposed offshore wind project in California
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The Book Page
Patti Callahan on Graham Greene: favorite re-read -- The End of the Affair by Graham Greene.
"I always find something new in this book every single time I read it."
C.S. Lewis also mentioned.
Book on her "to-be-read" pile: Wuthering Heights.
Favorite book assigned in high school: Catcher in the Rye.
German Automobile Manufacturing Work Stoppage -- Breaking -- April 4, 2022
Volvo Polestar 2:
- Hertz is buying 65,000 EVs from Volvo's Polestar, a Tesla rival. Link here.
- Polestar 2; a sporty sedan;
- will be available later this year (2022) in North Ameria
- purchases will occur over five years
- Polestar 2: wiki entry.
- MSRP: from $45,900.
German stoppage:
- BMW has halted production at two German factories;
- Mercedes is slowing work at its assembly plants;
- Volkswagen, warning of production stoppages, is looking for alternative sources for part
- Putin's War
- source here or go direct to ABCNews.
In response to the above a reader submits a very interesting observation.
The reader's observation: is this a parts shortage or has electricity become prohibitively expensive to continued? The US does not have an electricity price or energy issue, but even so, there were news reports that several automotive plants in the US were set to shut down this week.
So, for Germany: probably both -- a parts problem as well as high-priced electricity.
The Immediate Changes In Price Of Oil Following The Biden Surge Announcement -- April 4, 2022
The Biden Surge: tracked here.
The release was to begin as of April 1, 2022, a few days ago.Today is pretty much the first real trading day following the launch of the SPR release.
There were seven (?) possible outcomes after the announcement. This does not imply any "cause and effect," and no definitions are provided for "short term" and "long term."
- no effect on price of oil short term or long term -- very, very unlikely
- price comes down in the short term, no change long term -- possible, unlikely
- price comes down in the short term, goes up in the long term -- mostly likely scenario
- price comes down in the short term, goes down in the long term -- very unlikely
- price goes up in the short term; no change long term -- very unlikely
- price goes up in the short term; goes down in the long term -- very, very unlikely
- price goes up in the short term; goes up in the long term -- possibly, very unlikely
Going up in the short term would have seemed most unlikely.
Today in early morning trading:
- Brent: up 3.47%; up $3.62; trading at $108.00
- WTI: up 4.18%; up $4.08; trading at $103.30
- not only is WTI up (most unexpected) it is up more than Brent percentage-wise and dollar-wise
I have said on the blog that an SPR release is generally bullish. Algorithms are written in such a way that an SPR release suggests a physical shortage of oil, which, all things being equal, would drive the price of oil higher.
However, with regard to the Biden Surge, one would have thought it would be different this time because the release was done for reasons other than fundamental / technical reasons.
So, we will see. The week has just started.