Covid is so over, link here:
Monday, March 7, 2022
We'll Talk About This Later, Inshallah -- March 7, 2022
Twitter feed: everyone is now chiming in, including Saudi Aramco. Panic! Without Russian oil there is less than 2% spare capacity. I'm surprised there's any spare capacity without Russian oil. I doubted there was any spare capacity even before the Biden ban on oil.
But getting back to that graphic above. We've been through this before. Some years ago when oil was surging, Saudi Arabia again said it wasn't going to open the taps to give away there wealth. LOL. If they had the capacity, the reserves, the ability, they would sell all they could at these prices and then invest the profits in US blue chip companies with great dividends and guarantee a revenue stream for generations to come.
But, some will say, they were able to flood the market a few year ago (2014 - 2016) when they tried to "break" US shale. If you go back and look at data for that period, you will find that flood of oil came out of storage; it was not new drilling. Their inventories right now are at relative historic lows.
No, Saudi Arabia is not laying down rigs to preserve their oil wealth for future generations. They don't even think like that. Their thinking is tied up in one word: inshallah.Eight New Permits; Eight Permits Canceled; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- March 7, 2022
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
The market:
- AAPL: closed below $160; closed down 2.37%; closed down $3.87;
- has "event" tomorrow
- SRE: after a rocky start, SRE actually closed 90 cents / share higher;
- ENB / EPD: closed marginally lower.
- Most interesting after the "good" news coming out of the Biden White House and Venezuela earlier today, CVX closed up over 2%, closed up $3.44; closed at $162. How did the others do in comparison:
- XOM: up 3.6%; up $3.03; closed at $87
- COP: up 1%; up $1.00; closed at $101
- TTE: closed down 0.8%; closed down 40 cents; closed at $49
- SHEL: closed up 4.4%; closed up $2.16; closed at $51.56
Note: several readers have asked me where I think WTI is headed (much of it is headed overseas):
- the tea leaves (which, by the way, are very hard to read) do not suggest the price of WTI is going to drop below $100 for the next five years;
- my crystal ball, which has an accuracy rate of 1.45% forecasts WTI will not drop below $110 for the next three years, except for short flash-crashes lasting less than 72 hours;
- the tarot cards do not suggest any deaths in the family in the next six months, but the pack is quiet regarding oil (WTI and Brent)
- the ouija board today was quiet;
- my technical analysis, which has the same accuracy rate as my crystal ball, suggests WTI will remain -- on average -- above $100 for the next ten years; or maybe not; I lost track of the decimal
- one's astrological reading will vary by birthday; mine says oil had a relatively good day today but I need to be careful later this week when there could be a major pull back
- the entrails of a dead bird in our apartment complex were unrecognizable / unreadable due to decomposition
- the NDIC says their IT data is still not working
- Sophia told me to "get a life."
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $119.40 | 3/7/2022 | 03/07/2021 | 03/07/2020 | 03/07/2019 | 03/07/2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 31 | 16 | 55 | 65 | 60 |
Eight new permits, #38812 - #38819, inclusive:
- Operator: Grayson Mill (Equinor) (5); CLR (damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead) (3)
- Fields: Poe (McKenzie); Jim Creek (Dunn); Rattlesnake Point (Dunn)
- Comments:
- CLR has permits for three Bonneville wells in Jim Creek/Rattlesnake point;
- two in NWNW 24-146-96 and one in SESE 27-146-96;
- two will be sited 484 FNL and between 397 FWL and 352 FWL;
- the third will be sited 463 FSL and 1042 FEL;
- Grayson Mill has five permits for three Bugs wells and two Lloyd wells;
- all five wells will be sited in NWNE 34-151-100, but Bugs will run opposite direction as the Lloyd wells (more later);
- the wells will be sited 286 FNL and between 2420 FEL and 2300 FEL;
- based on their names, it looks like the Bugs wells will run from south to north; and, the Lloyd wells will run from the north to the south;
Eight permits were canceled:
- EOG (4): four Ross wells in Mountrail County; continues a pattern of EOG canceling permits;
- Ovintiv (Newfield) (3): two in Dunn County; one in McKenzie County;
- Hess: a TI-Beauty Valley permit in Williams County;
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 38355, 1,063, CLR, Dolezal FIU 10-5H1, Chimney Butte, minimal production, typical for CLR at this point in time in the life-cycle of the well; nothing new or alarming;
- 37246, 2,581, MRO, Jake 44-33TFH, yup, another nice MRO well, t--; cum 48K 1/21;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 31 | 24352 | 24337 | 51384 | 21046 | 20358 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 21 | 23756 | 23617 | 50964 | 19920 | 18265 | 0 |
Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.
Odds And Ends -- Late Afternoon -- Part 1 -- March 7, 2022
Food security: Iraq announced, three hours ago, about 1:30 p.m. CT, March 7, 2022, an initiative to enlarge stockpiles of wheat in the country in light of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The decision has been made to import three million tons of wheat. A budget of $100 million has been allocated for this "urgent purchase." [The link takes you to kurdistan24; access at your own risk.]
Reuters is also reporting this. At Nasdaq.com. Back in February, Iraq said it had enough wheat on hand, but if the war went long, they would buy more.
Iraq has oil money and can afford to buy / stockpile wheat. Egypt: probably not.
GasBuddy record: the US national average has just set a new all-time record: $4.104 / gallon, eclipsing 2008's record of $4.103 / gallon.
My hunch: there's been a bit of inflation since 2008. Let's see the numbers adjusted for inflation and for average mileage of cars currently on the road and in 2008.
Alberta Province, Canada: will waive the provincial fuel tax; will save consumers 13 Canadian cents / liter at the pump. Link here.
Demand destruction: the phrase is thrown around by "everyone." GasBuddy says there are signs of "demand destruction."
Without a definition of "demand destruction" and metrics to go with that definition, "demand destruction" is nothing more than a juvenile meme.
Gold: hit $2,000 / ounce today, then dropped back again. I didn't bother to look where it closed.
European energy crisis: a reader spotted this earlier and send me a note. Posted.
Now, we have confirmation: this morning European natural gas traded at the energy equivalent price of $620-oil. Link here.
As soon as I saw her nails ... link here.
Apple Safari: I am Apple Fanboy #3 -- previously posted. I love Apple.
Apple can do no wrong. But I don't use Safari as my browser. It's too slow and too persnickety.
I use Firefox 99% of the time. When I can't get a connection to a financial institution, I telephone them and one of the first questions they ask: which browser are you using? Browser of preference in every case (your experience may be different) is Google's Chrome. I have Chrome on all my non-phone devices and use Chrome when Firefox doesn't work for some reason. I won't used Safari except on my iPhone which I seldom use except for telephone calls, alarm clock, and family photography. Occasionally Duolingo on my iPhone when Sophia won't give up the iPad.
Now this, from Macrumors: Chrome now scores faster than Safari in speedometer benchmark. I did not need a "tech" study to tell me that. I already knew.
In a post on the Chromium blog, Google explains the technological improvements that have been introduced over the past months to make Chrome the "fastest possible browser." Google says that in the M99 release of Chrome, which is the newest version, it was able to "substantially" increase browser speeds across all major platforms.
The Headlines Coming Out Of Everywhere Are Simply Incredible -- Is Anyone Paying Attention? March 7, 2022
Another example: Apple.
Who would have thought?
This is not just iPhone SE users; this is a poll among all iPhone users.
For newbies, the SE is the least expensive, and smallest. It comes closest to the old flip-phones.
If this story, if this survey, is even remotely accurate, it's a game-changer. So many story lines.
Yes, I'm always exaggerating.
But here goes.
The headline: "Forty percent of iPhone user intend to buy the iPhone SE 3."
Again, this is not just SE 3 users, or potential SE 3 users, this is forty percent of all current iPhone users.
Forty percent of all iPhone users. Quick, google, how many iPhone users:
- iPhone user
- in the US: share of iPhone users in the US about 60% = 600 million iPhone users
- in the world: one billion and rising.
- Quick: google how many iPhones did Apple sell in 2021?
- 4Q21: 84 million were shipped.
- full year 2021: 250 million give or take a few million;
- so, 40% of 600 million (US only) = 240 million
- well, you can do the math
It begins:
Of the survey respondents that plan to buy the iPhone SE, 24 percent plan to use it as their main device, while 16 percent plan to give the device as a gift or use it as a secondary device. While most iPhone SE 3 buyers plan to use the device themselves, 10.9 percent plan to buy the device for a child, 10.2 percent plan to buy it for their partner or spouse, and 7.8 percent plan to buy it for a family member such as a parent or grandparent.
Most customers are planning to buy the third-generation iPhone SE because of its price point, but 15.2 percent are mainly attracted to 5G connectivity, 11.3 percent prefer its compact form factor, and 6.7 percent prefer the Home Button with Touch ID.
Most users upgrading to the iPhone SE will be upgrading from the iPhone 11, accounting for 11.5 percent of models that users intend to part ways with once the new iPhone SE launches. Beyond the iPhone 11, 6.8 percent are planning to upgrade from the iPhone XR and 6.7 percent are planning to upgrade from the iPhone 12, but there is widespread appetite to switch to the iPhone SE across multiple iPhone generations, from the iPhone 6 through to the iPhone 13 Pro Max.
For the record, I'm on my second iPhone SE 3 and once the hoopla dies down, I will buying my third.
China -- The Coming Energy Debacle -- March 7, 2022
The most entertaining game this autumn, prior to the mid-terms, will be watching everyone blame everyone else for the energy and agriculture debacle headed our way.
This is from Charles Kennedy, perhaps the "best" contributor over at oilprice.com, bar none.
"China scrambles to ensure energy security as commodities soar."
Hey, before I forget, you may want to take another look at this post before further reading. Just saying. UNP is going to be hauling a lot of coal this year.
Now, back to Charles Kennedy.
According to the Chinese official, "The sources of China's crude oil and natural gas imports have been diversified, and long-term contracts account for a high proportion. As long as all parties comply with the contracts, imports can remain generally stable," South China Morning Post reported.
The planning body NDRC said over the weekend that the country would raise coal production and reserves, develop "major petroleum reserve projects," and increase petroleum reserves, too, per Reuters.
Last month, China said it would help run its coal-fired power plants at full capacity in a bid to ensure energy security, despite the climate goals of the world's largest polluter.
The Chinese authorities will increase coal supply, and coal-fired power plants will be supported in running at full capacity and generating more electricity to meet the electricity needs for production and residential consumption, state news agency Xinhua reported in mid-February, citing a decision made at the State Council's Executive Meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang.
This weekend, NDRC's Lian said that the Chinese government would not ration power and natural gas usage unless in extreme situations. China suffered a power crisis in the autumn of 2021, which resulted in blackouts in September and October and slowed the growth of China's economy in the third quarter of 2021.
Giving credit where credit is due.
Several years ago I was getting a note from one reader every few days telling me that someday coal was going to be incredibly important. I suppose this was about the time that Hillary Clinton said she was going to put every coal miner out of a job.
Both the reader and I assumed the day King Coal would rise again would be "later," rather than sooner. I certainly did not have this on my 2022 bingo card. Maybe the reader did.
Odds and Ends, Mid-Day, Part 2 -- March 7, 2022
I have an incredibly "good" twitter feed. Everyone should have one's own twitter account. One can tweak it for one's personal desires, and over time, keep tweaking it, until one reaches nirvana or perfection.
One of my pet peeves is twitters who re-tweet quotes from folks I cannot stand. Perhaps I need to provide a list of those people I do not listen to; it won't change anything but it helps "clarify" who I am. My list is relatively short because my twitter feed is being tweaked to perfection. My list is in progress:
Folks I never listen to and will quickly "pass over" their tweet or re-tweet:
- White House press secretary, Jen Psaki
- John Kerry
- Donald Trump
- Pete Buttigieg
- Jennifer Granholm
- any Hollywood personality
- any US Senator or US representative
- it goes without saying, all of MSNBC, CNN, network evening news
- occasionally, an exception made for North Dakota reps at the federal level
Folks I occasionally read for the humor:
- Cathie Wood
Folks I prefer not to listen to but will: I want to hear it from the horse's mouth:
- Joe Biden
Odds And Ends -- Mid-Day -- March 7, 2022
Is anyone paying attention? From John Biden and Joe Kerry, at the top, to Joe Six-Pack at Target, I don't think anyone's paying attention. From a reader -- see post and comment here ...
UPDATED: European natural gas prices zoom to a fresh all-time high, rising >75% today. Benchmark TTF is trading above €345 per MWh.
** That's equal to more than $100 per million Btu, or more than $600 a barrel of oil equivalent ** (I promise you there are not typos there).
Nickel: if you're wondering, it's called a "short squeeze."
So unhappy: The Bismarck Tribune bemoans the fact that Covid-19 is so over in North Dakota. My hunch: the Covid-19 editor is not a geopolitical expert, probably not sure what countries border Ukraine. Link here:
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The Art Page
Cézanne in the Barnes Foundation, Rizzoli Electa, c. 2021.
From p. 60, "River Bend," the earliest painting by Cézanne in the Barnes Foundation.
Like Gustave Courbet, Camille Pissaro was a primary influence on Cézanne's early work. The two men met in the French capital in 1861 -- US Civil War had just broken out; both were outsiders in the Parisian art world and hostile to the academic training and prevailing traditions of the official Salon.
Pissaro encouraged the younger artist to paint out of doors. Setting up their easels in suburbs around Paris, they applied thick layers of paint ot their canvases to create an almost sculptural effect.
In an 1866 letter to his childhood friend Émile Zola, Cézanne observes, "You know all pictures painted inside, in the studio, will never be as goo as those done outside. When out-of-door scenes are represented, the contrasts between the figures and the ground is astounding and the landscape is magnificent. I see some superb things and I shall have to make up my mind only to do things out-of-doors."
"Cézanne was the first man in the impressionist group, "Lawrence Gowing declared, "perhaps the first man in history, to realise the necessity from the manner in which paint is handled to build up a homogenous and consistent pictorial structure ... [discovering] an intrinsic structure inherent in the medium and the material." "River Bend" marks the beginning of that lifelong process.
Cézanne never turned back.
Biden's Gordion Knot Solved -- March 7, 2022
Huge thanks to a reader. The reader did not say it outright but the comments -- and the lights went on.
On the one hand we have President Biden going to (perhaps literally) Venezuela and Saudi Arabia asking that they increase production to temper crude oil and gasoline prices.
On the other hand, not one overture to US shale to answer the call.
Can this be explained? Yes, it can. But I'll let folks think about it awhile. To be answered later. But if I'm correct, it explains everything and the Biden administration is "consistent" in their thinking / worldview.
This is really quite amazing. I'm embarrassed that I did not think of this earlier, and I'm amazed that the dozen or so analysts -- experts -- that I follow on twitter have not been able to solve this Gordion knot.
March 9, 2022: the Gordion knot solved.
Biden and team are thinking strategically. They are staying the course. Their timeline is ten, twenty, thirty years -- whatever it takes and however long it takes to shut down Big Oil and complete the energy transition all renewable energy. They are determined not to back-step, not to take any steps backward that helps the US fossil fuel industry, even if that means some significant hardship on Americans.
Going to Saudi Arabia and to Venezuela and releasing oil from global SPRs rather than increase US production or support more pipelines is tactical, short term. The Biden team sees this as a one-year, two-year, maybe four-year speed bump before things turn around and we get back on track to a smoother transition to an all-renewable energy future.
So, again, folks are talking pass each other, mostly due to the time frames.
Cheniere: Has Sold Out Of LNG Until 2040; It's An Emergency -- Hess -- March 7, 2022
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From A Refiner: It's An Emergency
Hess calls for global SRP release of 120 million bbls this month and another 120 million bbls next month, calling this an emergency. Link here. I'm sure the CEO is looking at a number of data points but his biggest concerns:
- global economy coming out of Covid-19 lock downs; global economy to surge;
- US driving season begins in two months;
- air travel will skyrocket this summer;
- Ukraine-Russia conflict will disrupt historic flow of crude oil and refined products;
- knows that OPEC spare capacity is a myth
It's very interesting. A single severe hurricane can create a temporary -- generally two weeks -- emergency. What we're likely to see this spring is something much worse than the worse hurricane on record and the situation won't end in two weeks.
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This Includes Refined Products
This is really amazing. Look at that plunge in 2020 and in the big scheme of things, US shale and refiners did not seem to cut back that much. If that's accurate, we're in for a debacle starting .. oh, about week 15. We're in Week 10, right now.
Meanwhile, Cushing storage. Somewhat irrelevant these days, but WTI is still priced off Cushing data. Link here.
Chevron's Gamble To Stay In Venezuela Paid Off Many Times Over -- Warren Buffett Must Have Seen This Coming, Also -- March 7, 2022
US to send delegation to Venezuela this week to discuss US buying oil from Venezuela. This is heavy oil, exactly what the US needs. This is huge for investors.
I guess this means that Chevron's gamble to stay in
Venezuela is going to pay off big time. Again, Buffett knew what he was
doing when he doubled down on Chevron.
From as recently as a month ago, from Reuters:
The Biden administration is considering a Chevron Corp (CVX.N) proposal to allow the U.S. oil major to accept and trade Venezuelan oil cargoes to recoup unpaid debt, four people close to the discussions said. Chevron representatives in recent months held at least one high-level meeting with U.S. diplomats along with Venezuelan opposition envoys, according to two of the people.
They described it as a milestone in the company's year-long lobbying efforts to win a change in its license to operate in Venezuela.
All "oils" are up today so hard to say how this news will effect CVX but it certainly can't hurt it. I think the sum of the parts is bigger than the whole.
Chevron's gamble in Venezuela was one of the biggest worries I've had over the past couple of years. I guess I can sleep soundly tonight.
More: I think the timing is interesting --- just one month ago, things were looking up for CVX with regard to Venezuela -- and then the announcement today.
This could be the biggest story of the year month day hour. Things are moving way too quickly. But wow, Warren Buffett is either brilliant or really, really lucky.
Trudeau in Canada must be going nuts. LOL. Trudeau is actually making Maduro look better.
The New Oasis -- Oasis - Whiting -- A New Chapter -- Lots Of Updates On The Blog Will Be Required -- March 7, 2022
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Original Post
CNBC:
- Oasis: up $10.97; up 7.59%; trading at $155.
- Whiting: up $5.90; up 7.07%; trading at $89.33
Reuters:
- apparently signed, sealed, and delivered.
- 972,000 net acres in North Dakota and Montana;
- 167.8 thousand boe per day
- $6 billion / 167,800 boepd = $35K / boepd in round numbers.
Upon completion of the deal, which is expected in the second half of 2022, Whiting shareholders will own about 53% and Oasis shareholders will own about 47% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis.
Oasis shareholders will also receive a special dividend of $15 per share once the deal is closed.
Whiting Chief Executive Offer Lynn Peterson will serve as Executive Chair of the Board of the combined company while Oasis CEO Danny Brown will become the top boss.
Name of new company? Oasis?
With this new chapter, it reminds me that the worst story ever to come out of the Bakken is / was MDU with regard to what this company "gave away."
A rough cut: something really, really stands out. Link here.
Gasoline Stations In North Texas Close To Running Out Of Gasoline By Sunday Night / Monday Morning -- March 7, 2022
Drivers are really, really watching the price of oil.
Yesterday evening, seeing oil spike to $130 I told my wife she needed to fill her tank. I was joking; I really don't care. We drive so very little.
But this morning with her tank more than half full she remembered what I said last night and filled her tank. Price of unleaded regular: $3.49 / gallon.
But this is the interesting part. Except during an occasional hurricane, maybe once every two years, local gasoline stations seldom "run out" of gasoline.
Today, my wife said half of the pumps were "out of gasoline." They had the familiar plastic bags over half the pumps.
Are you kidding me? Yes, by Sunday afternoon (gasoline is generally not delivered on the weekends), our local stations were running out of gasoline -- folks knew what was coming this week.
Truly amazing.
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Economic Indicators
First group "financial / economic" indicators:
Oh, This Explains Everything. I Thought He Was Going This Week -- March 7, 2022
By the way, to clarify, from now on, to "nationalize US oil" is a metonym for:
- windfall profits
- blocking pipelines
- ESG (Energy Stop Growing)
- carbon capture
- carbon sequestration
- environmental impact studies
- renewable energy investing
- vacating approved leases
Graupel And Fracking Are Not Related -- March 7, 2022
A reader worried about Pelosi, et al, calling for the "nationalization of US oil."
My not-ready-for-prime-time response:
1. They won't nationalize oil, but they will propose windfall taxes. They can't do this quite yet because they need US shale to start drilling (at least in their minds). US shale doesn't need to drill more; that will take care of itself.
2. What US shale needs to do is start fracking and it's interesting that Pelosi, et al, want US shale to start drilling more but will never utter the word fracking.
3. But again, folks who want more US drilling are missing the point; we need more completion of wells that have already been drilled. I'll talk about that again, today, for the umpteenth time on the blog. I had the "tease" over the weekend. Never got back to it.
Okay, so here it is.
Go back to this post, "why US shale is not drilling" -- March 6, 2022, in which I wrote:
I may or may not provide an essay / commentary with regard to my thoughts, but it seems most folks should be able to connect the dots.
The most difficult "dot" to connect / analyze is this week's list of wells coming off the confidential list and the initial production for those wells.
But my guess is that some folks won't be able to connect the dots. So, if I get the time (and haven't lost interest) I'll post the commentary.
Now, go back and look at the initial production for the wells coming off the confidential list this week.
The number of wells coming off the confidential list has been trending up -- ever so slightly -- over the past several weeks.
But look at this:
- of the 12 wells coming off the confidential list, today (Monday) through next Monday, only two are reporting production; this past year, it has been closer to fifty-percent reporting production when coming off confidential
- even CLR, "damn the torpedoes," with six of those twelve wells coming off confidential this next week, CLR is not reporting any of those wells completed, or at least not reporting any production; when CLR quits completing drilled wells that gets me attention -- especially when CLR is unhedged and oil is trending toward $120;
- of the twelve, one is real outlier: Denbury. If it weren't for that outlief, only Hess would be reporting a completed well; 1/12 = 8%.
- and, no, CLR is not "not completing" wells because they are "mad" at Biden or because they are afraid of being whacked on the head by the Biden administration again -- the current meme on twitter -- they are not completing wells because of logistics, sand, human resources.
There was an article over the weekend that oil companies are seeing more young men apply for roughneck jobs. But this is something new they are seeing: these new recruits last three weeks on the job. They can't handle "real work." Interesting. It's anecdotal and maybe nothing more than a hand-wringing meme, but whatever it is, I had not seen that in print before.
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Word of the Day
Graupel (/ˈɡraʊpəl/; German: [ˈɡʁaʊpl̩]), also called soft hail, corn snow, hominy snow, or snow pellets, is precipitation that forms when supercooled water droplets are collected and freeze on falling snowflakes, forming 2–5 mm (0.08–0.20 in) balls of crisp, opaque rime.
Technically, what we're getting today here in north Texas is not graupel but it's the best I could find. But this is why the "Eskimos" (are we still allowed to use that word?) have fifty -- exactly fifty -- different words for "snow."
Graupel is seen at higher altitude during winter storms. I've experienced it, most often during skiing in the Alps back in the day. So, spring weather at lower altitudes, the "anti-graupel"?
But it's not sleet. It appears to be very, very tiny snowflakes falling very, very sporadically. I'm sure it's nothing more than St Peter shaking his head, having not used Head & Shoulders this past week.
Feature Story For The Day -- March 7, 2022
From a reader.
- Howard Dahl: president and CEO of Amity Technologies of Fargo, ND.
- highly connected with Russia and Ukraine
- Dahl's grandfather, E. G. Melroe; Dahl's father, Eugene, Dahl; and, Dahl's uncles developed and manufactured the Bobcat skid-steer loader at Gwinner, ND
- Eugene Dahl:
- chairman of the board / CEO of Steiger, during periods between 1970 and 1979
- filed for bankruptcy / reorganization in 1986; emerged as part of CNH Industrial
- 1977: Howard and brother Brian developed and marketed "Concord" air seeding drills
- eventually sold to Case-IH, now CNH
- after the sale, Howard and Brian renamed their company Amity Technology
- acquired WIC sugarbeet and Wishek tillage lines
- 1992: Dahl traveled to Russia for the first time
- 2011: Amity and AGCO created a joint venture based in Wahpeton, ND, to sell Wil-Rich, Wishke tillage and Concord air seeders around the world
- 2021: they sold the joint venture to a family-owned company in Sweden
- Astarta Holding
- Dahl is chairman of the board of Astarta Holding, a Ukrainian agricultural and industrial holding company
- the company is listed in Kiev; has been listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange since 2006
- main producing assets are in central Ukraine, in the Poltava, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts
- Astarta controls six sugar beet factories and 700,000 ares of farmland in Ukraine
- #1 sugar company in Urkaine with 100,000 acres
- significant exporter of a variety of crops, including soybeans
- produces sugar, corn, wheat, rapeseed
- the country has reduced sugar beet production by 75% in the past 20 years
- comments by Dahl on agriculture and Putin's religion are must-read
One paragraph in the linked article stands out. I alluded to that sentiment some weeks ago on the blog.
Despite his knowledge of the region, Dahl didn’t think an invasion would happen. A week before it happened he'd been cheered by letters written by retired Russian generals, who recently had warned Putin about invading. Two or three oligarchs have denounced Putin. They’ve arrested 7,000 citizens.
Yes, Today's WTI Is "Off The Chart" -- Thank You, Greta -- March 7, 2022
WTI has been higher but to see that, you need to go back more than ten years.
Look how long:
- WTI stayed at $100 ten years ago;
- WTI stayed at $45 six years ago.
- anyone think WTI will fall back to $45 in the next two years?
- for all those greenies who told Big Oil to leave it in the ground? Best advice Big Oil ever got. Thank you, Greta.
Futures? Future? Greenies Are Smug; Quality Of Oil Matters -- March 7, 2022
Nominee for CEO of the decade? Vicki Hollub?
- something to think about, April 22, 2019;
- Warren Buffett, Vicki Hollub, OXY, Anadarko, and all that jazz, May 16, 2019;
- OXY, 3Q19 earnings report, November 4, 2019;
- the Buffett-OXY deal, February 15, 2020;
Twitter today: smugness of the greenies is worse than the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Oil: folks are "happy" that oil has stabilized; small concession, but going forward we will all get used to it.
- Brent: $125.30
- WTI: $122.80
Oreo cookies:
- it seems Oreo cookies, the standard package, stayed around $1.99 for years:
- then, all of a sudden the price jumped to $2.50
- at $2.50, I said I would never buy Oreos again, and I did not (until this past week)
- then Oreos jumped again, and I think the best price now is about $3.49 (Walmart online)
- and guess what, we have a package of Oreos in the house; first time in years; what happened?
- I "grew" into inflation; years of seeing that huge jump in the price of Oreos "numbed" me to simply accepting it; the price of Oreos would never return to $1.99
- and, so now, having "grown" into inflation, having accepted it, I broke down and bought my first package of Oreos in years
- WTI at $122.80 today; every time I see that I remember my experience with Oreos.
Surge:
- it's hard for the sudden surge not to scare folks; it's hard to explain it;
- but a long time ago, on the blog, I noted that oil tends not to move slowly when it starts to move; when it starts to move -- up or down -- the movements are generally quite incredible
- the 10-year chart at tradingeconomics proves me point
Oil futures out to June, 2030: it's been a long time since I've seen numbers like these. Link here.
- look at April and May, 2023;
- remember, these are not the prices that traders think oil will trade for on these dates, these are the prices traders are willing to pay now for guaranteed delivery on those dates
- April, 2023: $90.65, up $6.22
- May, 2023: $89.83, up $6.02
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Back to the Bakken
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $122.80 | 3/7/2022 | 03/07/2021 | 03/07/2020 | 03/07/2019 | 03/07/2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 31 | 16 | 55 | 65 | 60 |
Monday, March 7, 2022: 9 for the month, 117 for the quarter, 117 for the year
- 38126, conf, CLR, Dennis FIU 5-8H1,
Sunday, March 6, 2022: 8 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 116 for the year
- None.
- 38125, conf, CLR, Flint Chips Federal 5-5H1,
RBN Energy: what do US refineries import from Russia? And what if they stop? Archived.
Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine has posed a dilemma regarding Russian crude oil. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, sending out an average of more than 7 MMb/d last year, or about 7% of global demand. And the world needs more oil — demand for crude has rebounded from its COVID lows, and OPEC+ (of which Russia is part) and U.S. producers alike have been ramping up production only gradually. So the dilemma is, does the U.S. continue importing Russian crude oil to help hold down gasoline, diesel, and heating oil prices, or does the U.S. ban such imports as an additional rebuke to Russia’s actions in Ukraine? In today’s RBN blog, we look at which refiners and refineries have been importing Russian crude oil, heavy gasoil, and resid and what would happen if the U.S. said “Nyet” to Russian imports.
The debate over Russian imports of crude oil and other refinery feedstocks is reaching a fever pitch. The Biden administration, which with U.S. allies has implemented sanctions against Russian banks, Putin, and his billionaire friends, has been reluctant so far to push for a ban on Russian crude oil exports, citing concern about the impact such an action would have on U.S. refined products prices. That stand may not last long. Last week, Senator Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat and chairman of the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee, and Senator Lisa Murkowski, the Alaska Republican and ranking member on the same panel, introduced the proposed Ban Russian Energy Imports Act. The measure quickly garnered support from both sides of the aisle, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the California Democrat, and Senator Lindsay Graham, the South Carolina Republican, suggesting the kind of bipartisan consensus usually reserved for bills praising Thanksgiving, baseball, or international icons like Nelson Mandela and Mother Theresa.
Whether imports of Russian crude oil are banned — or individual companies decide on their own they just don’t want the stuff — we think a look at just how much the U.S. depends on Russia for crude oil and refined products merits a closer look.