Futures? Future? Greenies Are Smug; Quality Of Oil Matters -- March 7, 2022

Nominee for CEO of the decade? Vicki Hollub?

• something to think about, April 22, 2019;
• Warren Buffett, Vicki Hollub, OXY, Anadarko, and all that jazz, May 16, 2019;
• OXY, 3Q19 earnings report, November 4, 2019;
• the Buffett-OXY deal, February 15, 2020;

Twitter today: smugness of the greenies is worse than the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Oil: folks are "happy" that oil has stabilized; small concession, but going forward we will all get used to it.

• Brent: $125.30
• WTI: $122.80

Oreo cookies:

• it seems Oreo cookies, the standard package, stayed around $1.99 for years:
• then, all of a sudden the price jumped to $2.50
• at $2.50, I said I would never buy Oreos again, and I did not (until this past week)
• then Oreos jumped again, and I think the best price now is about $3.49 (Walmart online)
• and guess what, we have a package of Oreos in the house; first time in years; what happened?
• I "grew" into inflation; years of seeing that huge jump in the price of Oreos "numbed" me to simply accepting it; the price of Oreos would never return to $1.99
• and, so now, having "grown" into inflation, having accepted it, I broke down and bought my first package of Oreos in years
• WTI at $122.80 today; every time I see that I remember my experience with Oreos.

Surge:

• it's hard for the sudden surge not to scare folks; it's hard to explain it;
• but a long time ago, on the blog, I noted that oil tends not to move slowly when it starts to move; when it starts to move -- up or down -- the movements are generally quite incredible
• the 10-year chart at tradingeconomics proves me point

Oil futures out to June, 2030: it's been a long time since I've seen numbers like these. Link here.

• look at April and May, 2023;
• remember, these are not the prices that traders think oil will trade for on these dates, these are the prices traders are willing to pay now for guaranteed delivery on those dates
• April, 2023: $90.65, up $6.22
• May, 2023: $89.83, up $6.02

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$122.80	3/7/2022	03/07/2021	03/07/2020	03/07/2019	03/07/2018
Active Rigs	31	16	55	65	60

Monday, March 7, 2022: 9 for the month, 117 for the quarter, 117 for the year

• 38126, conf, CLR, Dennis FIU 5-8H1,

Sunday, March 6, 2022: 8 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 116 for the year

• None.

Saturday, March 5, 2022: 8 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 116 for the year

• 38125, conf, CLR, Flint Chips Federal 5-5H1,

RBN Energy: what do US refineries import from Russia? And what if they stop? Archived.

Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine has posed a dilemma regarding Russian crude oil. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, sending out an average of more than 7 MMb/d last year, or about 7% of global demand. And the world needs more oil — demand for crude has rebounded from its COVID lows, and OPEC+ (of which Russia is part) and U.S. producers alike have been ramping up production only gradually. So the dilemma is, does the U.S. continue importing Russian crude oil to help hold down gasoline, diesel, and heating oil prices, or does the U.S. ban such imports as an additional rebuke to Russia’s actions in Ukraine? In today’s RBN blog, we look at which refiners and refineries have been importing Russian crude oil, heavy gasoil, and resid and what would happen if the U.S. said “Nyet” to Russian imports.

The debate over Russian imports of crude oil and other refinery feedstocks is reaching a fever pitch. The Biden administration, which with U.S. allies has implemented sanctions against Russian banks, Putin, and his billionaire friends, has been reluctant so far to push for a ban on Russian crude oil exports, citing concern about the impact such an action would have on U.S. refined products prices. That stand may not last long. Last week, Senator Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat and chairman of the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee, and Senator Lisa Murkowski, the Alaska Republican and ranking member on the same panel, introduced the proposed Ban Russian Energy Imports Act. The measure quickly garnered support from both sides of the aisle, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the California Democrat, and Senator Lindsay Graham, the South Carolina Republican, suggesting the kind of bipartisan consensus usually reserved for bills praising Thanksgiving, baseball, or international icons like Nelson Mandela and Mother Theresa.

Whether imports of Russian crude oil are banned — or individual companies decide on their own they just don’t want the stuff — we think a look at just how much the U.S. depends on Russia for crude oil and refined products merits a closer look.