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Wednesday, September 21, 2022

For The Archives -- Stagflation -- September 21, 2022

Before we get started, remember -- isn't today the day we hear from "the Fed"?

Now, back to our regular programming.

Link here.

From the linked article

  • stagflation: a nasty mix of high inflation, increasing unemployment, and stagnant job growth. 

Global macroeconomics:

  • the Brits: hypersensitive about unemployment
  • the Germans: hypersensitive about inflation
  • the Americans: hypersensitive about the market and profits

Mohamed El-Erian: 

  • an Egyptian-American economist and businessman;
  • President of Queens' College, Cambridge (that would be the Cambridge in the UK, not in the US); and,
  • chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer.

British unemployment:

  • August, 2022, most recent data: unemployment came in lower than forecast
  • at 3.6%, lowest rate since 1974

European unemployment:

  • Germany has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the EU: 2.9% (from 15 years of age to 74!).
  • lowest:
    • Czechia: 2.3%
    • Poland: 2.6%

US unemployment:

From August 28, 2022: lots of room to put "millions out of work” (per "the Fed") and still stay below 3% U-1 unemployment.

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