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Friday, April 1, 2022

Clearing The Decks For Next Week -- April 1, 2022

CLR: Jack Stark entered into Consulting Agreement, steps down effective today as President. Source. I have no idea what this is all about, but the comments at the link might provide more detail. Or not. 

AMLO vs Biden:

  • one demands faster action;
  • the other does everything he can to slow things down;
  • source.

Biden's Surge: I do believe "everyone" agrees that the Biden Surge will have unintended circumstances. Source. The Biden Surge is tracked here.

The executive order: the whole enchilada

SPR: one giant spread trade. We actually talked about this on the blog earlier. The link is to Reuters. And here, also. Most interesting: we talked about this earlier when we mentioned backwardation vs contango.

Fun fact: there's still Iranian crude oil in the SPR caverns. Source. If you look at the graphic at this post, it makes sense.

Russian oil production: already signs of a decline. Source

The myth of spare capacity:

  • OPEC March, 2022, oil output rises a paltry 90,000 bopd month/month to 28.54 million bpd
  • OPEC states' compliance with OPEC+ output cut pledges rises to 151% in March from 136% in February
  • it's almost like OPEC is running out of spare oil apacity;
  • OPEC+ spare capacity is insufficient;
  • if anyone thinks OPEC is complying by 150+% out of the goodness of their hearts, I have a bridge to sell you.
  • source.

Capitalization: source.




OPEC: to use Rystad, WoodMac data instead of IEA. Source

Expanding LNG and renewables: Sempra and Total. Source.

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