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Saturday, April 30, 2022

Only A Cursory Look At Berkshire Following The Annual Meeting But This Caught My Attention -- April 30, 2022

Berkshire Hathaway increased its holdings of Chevron in 1Q22: multiple sources. From Barron's:


But this from thestreet back in February 14, 2022:


I'll let others sort this out, but if I'm reading this correctly, someone seems to be mistaken. But again, I often misread things.

CVX was trading for about $157 on Friday, at the close, April 29, 2022.

Only two stocks were prominently mentioned at the 2022 annual meeting: Chevron and Activision.

But look at the Chevron headlines:

  • Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway made big bet on energy as first-quarter operating profits edged higher -- Barron's
  • Warren Buffett is betting more on Chevron -- Bloomberg
  • Warren Buffett significantly increases Chevron bet, now in Berkshire's top four positions -- CNBC

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Warren, Charlie On Oil
 

Link here


Some see this as $250-WTI.

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Another Melancholy Evening

Watching Farewell, My Lovely, twice in three nights. 

Another melancholy evening: it has nothing to do with the Bakken, the market. 

They should have filmed Farewell, My Lovely in black-and-white, not color. Color truly ruined it. Other than that, it's a perfect movie. Awards

Exact date movie was set: June 29, 1941. Also, here.

The book was published in 1940.

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Best Chocolate

Bang for buck, Lindt is the best.

Tell me if I'm wrong. Again, talking "bang for buck."

Kate Weiser is best but not for "bang for buck." One doesn't buy Kate Weiser for self; Kate Weiser is for the love of one's life.

If You Want To See Disinformation And Chart Illiteracy -- Start Here -- April 30, 2022

Updates

May 1, 2022: when I first saw this Bloomberg story, I knew it was disinformation and probably planted by the IEA or OPEC or Saudi Arabia. Now I know I'm right. Link here.  

Original Post 

And again, ask about "the agenda" when reading the linked article.

Link here

Go through the thread at the link. So many story lines. 

But first, and foremost, fracking per se is not causing the problem. Huge disinformation. And where is Oklahoma on the list? 

North America: earthquakes yesterday, a very, very typical earthquake day in America. All earthquakes posted for yesterday; none in Texas; closest to Texas, one in Oklahoma, well-known for minor quakes:

There's Going To Be Some Soul-Searching / Come To Jesus Meetings This Next Week Over At Ford And Amazon -- April 30, 2022

Both Ford and Amazon took huge 1Q22 hits with their Rivian investment. 

For Ford, perhaps not unexpected, since those who invest in automobile industry understand the EV situation, but it seems to have really taken Amazon investors by surprise.

How is the Rivian debacle being reported? Look at this:


I knew it was bad; I didn't know it was this bad, nor did analysts in their early reporting. It was only a bit later in the day after the initial numbers came out that the fog became to clear. 

Amazon was absolutely crushed by analysts when the latter realized what had just happened. Amazon's reputation was crushed; their market cap was crushed. Bezos lost as much as $20 billion -- on paper ... but I doubt it affected his credit rating. Or his lifestyle.

I think twenty, thirty years from now when the books are written on the EV industry folks are going to ask why "they" went with luxury sedans and pickup trucks before going after the low-hanging fruit: last-mile and last-ten-mile local van delivery. Where Tesla is with S, X, and Y, Amazon should be that far along with last-ten-mile-EV-delivery vans. 

The tea leaves suggest it will easily be another five years, I don't think as long as ten years, before Amazon is "mature" with EV van deliveries. Wow, what a mistake. 

Don't even get me started with the US Postal Service.

I don't think there's anyway to sugarcoat this.

ATLIS: Wants To Compete With Rivian -- April 30, 2022

I track EVs at this post; the "scorecard" tracks the principal operator, the company providing the software (often to include the semiconductors), the "deep pocket" backer. 

It appears Arizona is becoming an EV-manufacturer center for the US. Detroit (the metonym) will be a big EV player, of course, but it looks like Arizona wants to be the "Detroit" for EVs. 

Or maybe better said, three centers for EV excellence: Detroit, Arizona, and Austin. But then there's also George, Alabama, the Carolinas, which I might lump together as the "Southeast," giving us four centers for EV excellence: Detroit, Austin, Arizona, and the Southeast.

I don't know, maybe other folks have a better understanding of all this. 

Maybe readers can help me with this: EV pickups. Who's building them? I can think of three: Tesla, Detroit (Ford being the most visible), and Rivian.

Now, there's a fourth: Atlis. Atlis Motor Vehicles website. The website will explain how "everyday" folks can invest in this start-up.

It looks like Atlis is a battery company first, and a pick-up company second. They'll sell / market their batteries through their pick-up trucks.

ATLIS Regulation A+ crowdfunding

ATLIS is Arizona-based. Will eventually go public but folks can invest now. 

Apparently, Atlis is comparing itself to Rivian.

This is probably as good a site as any for quickly bringing us up-to-date with Atlis.

Three business units:

  • energy: batteries
  • XP platform: the "base" platform for their vehicles; a modular platform;
  • XT Pickup Truck: the pick-up truck "we see"

Apparently the XT Pickup has reached "body-in-white" stage. The body will be built / manufactured by Schwab Industries which is based in Michigan. The body will be shipped to Arizona where the body will be placed on the XP Platform.

Schwab, apparently also has an interest in space but I'm not what the connection is as of yet. 

I'll be adding Atlis to the EV scorecard.

The XP Platform will be built / manufactured "in-house" by the Atlis team "to ensure quality. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Stocks To Watch Next Week -- April 30, 2022

Weekly, on Saturdays, SeekingAlpha has a nice look at stocks to watch in the following week. I track those postings here.

This past week was a great week for earnings reports, and interestingly enough, it continues into next week. Also, some nice dividend increases:

April 30, 2022: next week, stocks to watch --

  • earnings: WMB; MPC; AMD; SBUX; MDRN; UBER; COP; LCID; DASH; ENB
  • IPOs: Bausch + Lomb (BLCO); 
  • projected dividend increases: FANG (from 60 cents to 70 cents); Devon (from $1.00 to $1.15); Baxter (from 28 cents to 32 cents

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- April 30, 2022

Fill rate.

I forgot to post this graph this past week; a reader reminded me. 

My reply:

Thank you. I had forgotten to post that.

Two weeks ago (or maybe three), the fill curve had not yet turned "up" which concerned a lot of folks because by now it should be filling. Some thought it might go below the five-year minimum.

It looks like it won't go below the 5-year minimum and won't set a new "low" record. It has started to turn up.

One thing I've learned about natural gas: besides being very, very seasonal, producers can fill very quickly if they need to. Unlike crude oil which seems to take awhile from spud to pipeline, natural gas wells can be drilled quickly, etc, etc.

So, although natural gas will be expensive and there may be some headline stories on regional shortages, I still think the real story is going to be diesel.

The Book Page And ISO NY -- April 30, 2022

I do not know the geography of the northeast (US) very well. Some years ago I picked up a copy of The Battle for New York, Barnet Schecter, c. 2002 more for the geography of New York state than for the history. 

The map inside the front and back covers of the hardcover sold me. 

This history is incredible; the geography is even better. Really, really fun to read. I'm re-reading it for the second time now. 

My notes, though very incomplete, are here.

ISO NY

Putin's War -- We Are In This For The Long Haul -- April 30, 2022

Link here

There are a number of story lines here. Most folks are fixated on the fact this suggests the member countries of the EU are united; Russia unable to break up the EU, one of his primary goals, it is often stated. 

This is what jumps out at me: "we're" in this for the long haul. The EU sees the war in Ukraine and after-effects of the war lasting a very long time. 

Again, to beat a dead horse, the Russians will still sell a lot of (all?) the oil they have for export, but the real issue is Russia's ability to maintain their oil fields without western technology.

Canada's Clearwater Play -- Random Update -- April 30, 2022

I track other plays / other formations at the sidebar at the right. 

On Saturday, twitter had a "breathless" tweet on Clearwater (Canada). I was curious. Had I noted Clearwater before on the blog. Yup: here. Here's the wiki entry on the Clearwater formation, early Cretaceous.

Friday, April 29, 2022

Halo Effect In A CLR Well, Kukla In Chimney Butte -- April 29, 2022

I'm heading to bed. I could do this all night, but have to quit. 

Here's another well, almost ten years old and has a jump in production. Maybe I'll take a closer look tomorrow, but not tonight. 

The well:

  • 20544, 1,301, CLR, Kukla 3-16H, Chimney Butte, s10/11; t4/12; cum 418K 5/18; cum 506K 5/21; recent production, look at the jump in production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022287889777810951665062730
BAKKEN1-2022316837669014524604056220
BAKKEN12-202116226221016489195417410
BAKKEN11-20211020161813281781367230
BAKKEN10-20217116430867360681
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-2021116198173577416190
BAKKEN7-202126200220391106204217090
BAKKEN6-202130228121851280252521210
BAKKEN5-2021312614281314332649220330
BAKKEN4-202130199816871338182214270
BAKKEN3-202123130513601007125694815
BAKKEN2-202128190319641048177614180
BAKKEN1-2021312244232112202123167925
BAKKEN12-202031227120441272209916800
BAKKEN11-2020302223248313851998149796
BAKKEN10-20201789181859575151220
BAKKEN9-2020301524155696813729670
BAKKEN8-20203117811776113217901029342
BAKKEN7-20203018031547128715751037138
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-2020301544171095416321082168

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A Musical Interlude

Living Next Door To Alice, Smokie

An Enerplus Fort Berthold Well Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- April 29, 2022

The well:

  • 26323, 3,138, Enerplus/Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-22C-15-9H, Eagle Nest, t4/14; cum 424K 11/18; cum 534K 2/22; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20221278787750560423379
BAKKEN1-2022231865175392422561291118
BAKKEN12-2021241654167893522571234153
BAKKEN11-202123134015999631723727104
BAKKEN10-20212425522403245737251884312
BAKKEN9-20213029673001370261753156531
BAKKEN8-20213136633710204247892449434
BAKKEN7-20213123712502416534121806258

A Petro-Hunt Van Hise Trust Well Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- April 29, 2022

The well:

  • 26267, 1,672, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28D-21-6H, Charlson, t9/14; cum 426K 11/18; cum 510K 2/22; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202220135713117504485433515
BAKKEN1-20222913311380437570455020
BAKKEN12-20213120112026680767174550
BAKKEN11-20213022032103748751873090
BAKKEN10-202131209721498457032680610
BAKKEN9-2021159829516233123298634
BAKKEN8-20211911121207350467145250

An EOG Wayzetta Well Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- April 24, 2022

The well:

  • 25853, 1,203, EOG, Wayzetta 34-2829H, Parshall, t12/13; cum 470K 11/18; cum 504K 2/22; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202228580579433469642440
BAKKEN1-202231781779529555350620
BAKKEN12-2021319701069571573752370
BAKKEN11-20213010081080617576152770
BAKKEN10-2021311043880717602055200
BAKKEN9-20213010781073875569552110
BAKKEN8-202116319291883301827650
BAKKEN7-20210000000

An Oasis Wilson Federal Well In The Charlson Oil Field Just Went Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- April 29, 2022

The well:

  • 26228, 1.097, Oasis/SM Energy, Wilson Federal 1X-20H, Charlson, t2/14; cum 375K 12/18; cum 507K 2/22; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022281607165969253345166115
BAKKEN1-20223118781949863598544981432
BAKKEN12-2021312138215682562276039123
BAKKEN11-2021302303226086462676073132
BAKKEN10-20213127242840128970366349600
BAKKEN9-202130288728131321721651481985
BAKKEN8-202131310530711732789140773715
BAKKEN7-202131269827041764835514716789

Empire North Dakota, LLC -- In The May, 2022, NDIC Hearing Dockets

Empire North Dakota, LLC: NDIC well search

From mineralanswers website: eight producing wells. 

DrillingEdge: it looks like they are in Montana, along the ND state line.

shalexp: and up along the Canadian border in North Dakota, Bottineau County;

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My Sweet Lord

I've watched this video a gazillion times, but tonight I saw "things" I had not seen before.

My Sweet Lord, Billy Preston, Concert For George

The Concert For George

On November 29, 2002, one year after the passing of George Harrison, Olivia Harrison and Eric Clapton organized a performance tribute in his honor. Held at London’s Royal Albert Hall, the momentous evening featured George’s songs, and music he loved, performed by artists including Clapton, Joe Brown, Dhani Harrison, Jools Holland, Jeff Lynne, Paul McCartney, Monty Python, Tom Petty, Billy Preston, Ravi & Anoushka Shankar, Ringo Starr and more. 

Link

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Melancholy Mood Tonight

Daydream Believer, The Monkees

I give the Californians a lot of grief on this blog, but truth be told, some of my happiest days ever were in California. For such a corny group, the Monkees had some great hits, including this one. 

I watch this video over and over, and I see my nephew in "Davy Jones." 

In a place far away and a long time ago.

The Peregrine Wells In The City Of Williston, North Dakota -- April 29, 2022

Updates

March 26, 2023: it appears the three new Peregrine wells (#3880 - #38782, inclusive) have been drilled to depth. No production data as of January, 2023. FracFocus shows no data.

Original Post

The Peregrine wells:

  • 33130, 1,220, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24H, Todd, t10/17; cum 587K 8/22;
  • 38782, drl, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24 4B, Todd,1280-acre, sections 13/24-154-101;
  • 38781, drl, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24 3B, Todd,1280-acre, sections 13/24-154-101;
  • 38780, drl, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24 2B, Todd,1280-acre, sections 13/24-154-101;

In addition to these wells/locations, in the May, 2022, NDIC hearing dockets, Grayson Mill plans to put six more wells in this drilling unit but it will be a 1920-acre unit, sections 12/13/24-154-102.

Updated graphic, April 29, 2022:


The graphic:



August 25, 2019: the Osprey and Peregrine wells, for production data, see this post.
  • 33130, 1,220, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24H, Todd, t10/17; cum 430K 9/19; a huge well;
  • 33499, 593, Oasis, Osprey 5401 44-34H, Todd, t10/17; cum 417K 9/19; a huge well;

Week 17: April 24, 2022 -- April 30, 2022

We begin:
From Leo Tolstoy's Anna Karenina:
"Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way."
I see economic cycles the same way:
"Happy times are all alike; but every recession is different in its own way."
This next one begins with a shortage of diesel. We just don't know it yet.

Top story of the week:

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's North Dakota top energy stories:

Operations:

Operators:

Wells:

Wells over 500K:

Fracking:

Halo effect:

Natural gas:

Pipelines:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Headlines From Twitter -- April 29, 2022

The headlines:

  • TC Energy beats profit estimates; expects LNG exports to grow 90%. 
  • US solar industry warns of slowdown due to supply chain disruptions.
  • XOM, CVX post big revenues, Wall Street shrugs (small mom-and-pop retail investors are going to beat the big Wall Street investors)
  • CVX posted the highest quarterly earnings in almost a decade
  • North American oil companies scramble to find workers despite boom
  • Phillips 66's early 2022 turnarounds to end as gasoline driving season looms
  • Gulf Coast fuelmakers are exporting a massive amount of diesel
  • annualized total equity returns adjusted for inflation are worst since 1974
  • Total Energies (one of my favorite companies) has started production of sustainable aviation fuel from a new plant at its integrated Normandy refining / petrochemicals platform in France
  • I can't recall if I still hold shares in TTE;
  • WTI: $250?
  • Gazprom's European gas storage empties out. Think about that.
  • North Dakota's oil output briefly plummeted to just 300,000 bopd day -- blizzard. Think about that
  • ULSD (ultra-low sulfur diesel) now stands for ultra low-supply diesel
  • physical New York diesel market is on fire, with prices surging > $250 / bbl oil equivalent; dieeseel is the workhorse of the global economy, the fuel of trucking, railway, shipping, heavy machinery and, don't forget, farming. If we have a recession; it begins here with diesel.
  • after weeks of reluctance, Germany now backs a European Union plan to ipose a gradual embargo on Russian oil imports

I don't know if it will happen before Biden's first term [ends January 19, 2025] but within my investing lifetime, I am absolutely convinced there will be a crude oil supply / demand (crude oil shortage) that will be absolutely unprecedented. It will be global and worse than what the US saw during the OPEC embargo of 1973 - 1974. 

Why Didn't I Think Of This! LOL -- April 29, 2022

Link here.

One thing to make this a perfect evening: Casablanca on TCM.

Brilliant, Simply Brilliant! April 29, 2022

I posted this earlier:

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Biden's Foreign Policy: Leading From Behind

A reader sent me a cartoon of Biden and his foreign policy. An anti-Biden cartoon.

My reply:

I have no idea what Biden's foreign policy is but actions speak louder than words. 

Ukraine is not scoring the successes we see reported each day without huge, unprecedented support from the US.

Biden is asking for an unprecedented $33 billion for Ukraine and to get it quickly, and he will get it. At least most of it. GOP will be crazy to vote against it.

Quick: who's running the US war in Europe?
  • name the US president
  • name the US VP
  • name the SecDef: it's not Rumsfeld
  • name the Pentagon's Chief of Staff: it's not Colin Powell
  • name the US European commander: I have no idea
  • name the Air Force commander in Europe (USAFE): I have no idea and if I don't know, no one except a few actually know and where do you think Ukraine is getting all their intel (drones and RC-135s)
  • name the US combatant commander: it's not Stormin' Norman
Devil's advocate:
  • if Trump were president, Trump would clearly be in charge;
  • Trump would be a very, very visible Commander-in-Chief
  • things would be a lot worse with Trump running the show
Just being a devil's advocate.

Now this

Trump would have thought of this weeks ago, but better late than never. I don't think folks know how big a deal this is. Fast-tracking citizenship for Russians. LOL.

First, Biden stole their yachts, now he's stealing their brains. LOL.

Hold That Thought -- April 29, 2022

A digression: we close out the week with WTI at $104.70. 

Wow, I don't believe in coincidences. LOL. But sometimes, the only explanation is ... drum roll ... coincidences.

A reader just wrote me telling me that a recession was unavoidable. 

I replied, that yes, that was the consensus. 

I had to look up the last us recession. Began in February, 2020 -- ended in April 2020, making it the shortest recession on record.

I got to thinking about that, and thinking this is the best opportunity to be investing. 

Hold that thought.

At the top of my twitter feed:

I have three tranches of investing in the month of May:

  • May 2, 2022,
  • May 16, 2022, and,
  • May 30, 2022.

Four New Permits Including Three Permits For Wildcats in Mercer County -- April 29, 2022

Active rigs:

$104.70
4/29/202204/29/202104/29/202004/29/201904/29/2018
Active Rigs3716316462

Four new permits, #38915 - #38918, inclusive:

  • Operators: Rampart Energy (3); Enerplus
  • Fields: three wildcats in Mercer County; Murphy Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • Enerplus has a permit for a MC-Kudrna well in SWSE 10-144-95; to be sited 222 FSL and 1456 FEL;
    • Rampart has permits for three Coteau wells in Mercer County;
      • #2: 424 FSL and 805 FWL, a wildcat
      • #3: 2462 FSL and 2391 FEL, a wildcat
      • #4: 1641 FSL and 2421 FWL, a wildcat

Eleven permits renewed:

  • BR: six Gladstone permits in McKenzie County; two Mathistad peremits in McKenzie County; and three Keene permits in Dunn County;

Intel: Still Unimpressed -- April 29, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here
 
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Intel Continues To Un-Impress Me


Transcript.

Apple Earnings And Reminiscing -- April 29, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The Apple Page

Earnings, 1Q22 and other related items.

Look at #5 and #6 below

From ZeroHedge, link here:


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Reminiscing

If I could live life over again, one thing I would do: keep a 4 x 6 card on every individual with whom I crossed paths. I think it would have been doable. I can think of many, many folks with whom I would now love to touch base, to see what they are doing, and to let them know how they made my life richer. 

I've thought about that a lot. Today, I was thinking of Dr Joe Matthews. One of my "favorite" physicians during my training. He trained as a colorectal surgeon while I was training as a pediatrician at Travis AFB hospital in / near Vacaville, CA.

After training, he and I ended up crossing paths again when he was transferred to Grand Forks AFB, ND, where I had been for a year.  

This story is a few years old. The Matthews had two sons. I forgot the names of the two boys, but one, see the linked article, was Doug. I remember treating one of the two, possibly Doug, with an antibiotic to prevent Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, when they arrived at Grand Forks AFB, about 1981.