The Biden Surge is tracked here.
Why now, what changed? What prompted the Biden administration to release of one million bopd for an extended period of time and rebates for drivers to cushion the cost of gasoline at the pump?
So far, this is just a rumor, but it "feels real."
If the Biden administration does announce the Biden Surge, the first question is what prompted that now?
Obviously, the short answer is the mid-term elections.
Earlier, the administrations said the rise in the price of gasoline a) would be short-lived; b) would not cause all that much pain; c) if it did cause too much pain, folks could buy a Tesla.
My hunch is that the administration can now see that the rising price of gasoline a) will not be short-lived; b) that it will cause a lot of pain for those who plan to vote in November; and, c) the Tesla option is not an option at all.
So, what changed?
I'm too tired to go write much tonight, so I will address just one issue.
Everyone will argue if there will be buyers for Russian oil. Of course, there will be.
But sanctions on Russia are going to get worse, and for the most part have not yet begun to be felt. The fact is that Russian oil production is very much dependent on western technology and western resources. We won't see that impact for several months. But if you thought a shortage of toilet paper was a problem for Americans during the early days of the pandemic, the shortages that Russia begins to experience will make those toilet paper shortages pale in comparison.
No matter how much one sugar coats it, Russian production is going to fall significantly. And Russia is not like Kashagan or Libya when it comes to temporary losses in production.