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Friday, March 25, 2022

The Energy Transition Is Dead -- EVs Not For Me -- For Investors, Margins Simply Not There

Locator: 10055DEAD.

" The Energy Transition Is Dead" will be tracked here. First post, March, 2022.

The corollary (?) or at least being reported at the same time, "Globalization Is Dead," will also be tracked here (at least for now). 

At some point in the future, I will post an "original" narrative, but for now, to save time, just the links and some minor points.

Because some politicians are trying to re-write history, we're losing sight of a very, very important data point.

Biden, et al, are trying to tell us that the inflation we are seeing is due to Russia invading Ukraine; in fact that inflation began well before the war; but it's a meme that is easily sold to the vast majority of Americans, educated or not, Republican or Democrat, does not matter.

The most important data point that all of us seem to be forgetting is that the EU energy crisis began well before the Russian-Ukraine invasion. But it's obvious that folks will forget that and put all the blame for the EU energy crisis on the Russian invasion. 

This EU energy crisis was the wake-up call that the energy transition was dead. I missed it. Many others missed it. But now, with the sanctions on Russia, we see that the energy transition is dead. The one article that cemented it for me? The EU won't ban buying coal from Russia, in effect, continuing to financially support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

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The Energy Transition Is Dead

Link here. "The energy transition is dead. We just haven't realized it yet." -- Peter Zeihan

Not enough land:

  • The link has long been lost / broken, but XOM provided a very, very excellent analysis about ten years ago when I first started blogging, saying the very same thing: link here

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EVs

October 2, 2023: Ford's CATL debacle. Link here.

September 8, 2023: energy transition is dead. Update here.

February 24, 2023: Sono Motors calls it quits.

November 15, 2022: group-think.

May 20, 2022: EU to use coal a lot longer than expected now that they're cutting off Russian natural gas.

May 20, 2022: if recession lasts eighteen to twenty-four months, some EV manufacturers may not be around in 2024. Link here

May 5, 2022: the Biden administration admits that energy transition is going to take a lot longer than envisioned. Maybe "energy transition" is already dead. Link here.

April 27, 2022: moving on from oil, Peter Zeihan

April 16, 2022: Jeep will fund EVs yet to be produced with profits from large SUVs.

March 29, 2022: US EPA -- greater oil production is compatible with energy transition [if it means I'm more likely to keep my job after the mid-term elections.]

March 27, 2022: New Yorkers experience sticker shock

March 26, 2022: how bad is the "rare earth metals" shortage? Bezos and Gates are "buying" Greenland to mine critical materials used in electric vehicles. When Trump suggested this, he was laughed off the stage.

March 26, 2022: Coal: we can't live without it. The EU will support Russia's invasion by continuing to purchase coal from Russia.

March 25, 2022: GM to halt pickup truck production in Indiana due to chip shortage.

March 25, 2022: from my favorite contributor over at oilprice.com: lithium price surge jeopardizes energy transition efforts.

March 22, 2022: if Europe has focused on nuclear and fossil fuel, they wouldn't be in the box they are in now.

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