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Monday, January 31, 2022

US Shale: Swing Producer And Producer Of First/Last Resort When The World Goes To War -- January 31, 2022

Twenty years from now they're gonna say, "we underestimated the Bakken."

Link here.

I find this incredibly interesting. If "push comes to shove" it will be interesting to see how quickly US shale can ramp up; and load tankers to Europe. My hunch: very, very quickly. All those LNG export terminals are looking pretty good right now.



Bakken Natural Gas Expansion Project -- Approved -- Let's Go, Bakken -- January 31, 2022

Link to  S&P Global Platts:

  • the WBI Energy's North Bakken Expansion Project
  • the project will transport associated natural gas from the Williston Basin to a new interconnect with North Border Pipeline's existing mainline in McKenzie County
  • capacity to transfer up to 250 MMcf/d
  • could displace Canadian supply from entering the midwest on the Northern Border Pipeline
  • Canadian natural gas could take alternative routes and likely flow on Great Lakes or Viking


 

Breaking: US-Canadian Crossing Closed Across Alberta -- January 31, 2022

Link here. Beautiful scenery. At least this border is secure.

This is what is looks like five miles south of the crossing: empty.

"Pat, I'm ready to solve the puzzle."

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On Another Note

Can anyone see a situation in which Europe desperately needs oil and liquid natural gas, and all stops are pulled out by the US, the White House, drillers, and shippers to get as much oil and natural gas to Europe as possible, as fast as possible. 

I'm convinced a case can be made for that. Ninety-five percent chance it won't happen, but a five percent chance it will?

Very, very few people are still alive who were actually alive during WWII. Those folks can tell us how fast things can change. Remember, that global war lasted four years, and it broke out very, very suddenly, peaking within months before it moved into steady state wartime situation.

There's a reason the White House just "named" Qatar a non-NATO ally of the US. Sources:

The United States is planning to designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally, President Joe Biden has told Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, a move that would formally upgrade the partnership between Doha and Washington.

Murex With Two New Permits -- January 31, 2022

A reader reminded me the "914s" have been released.

This is from my "links" page:

ISO NE: dinner time; link here.

  • demand: moderate at 17312 MW; priced at $270 / MW
  • price: 8th decile; highest decile it will ever be
  • New England has run out of coal;
  • oil is providing 20% of electricity;
  • hydro at only 7%; expensive; goal to keep it down
  • but look at this, renewables providing only 5% and of that, wind only 21%; you can do the math (1% of all electricity is coming from renewable energy; in other words, way below even weak expectations);
  • absolutely fascinating
  • later, one hour later -- it just got a lot worse -- pricing now spiked to $300+/MH
  • what happened? 
    • demand jump from 17312 to 18407, a non-trivial jump
    • hydro (very expensive) jumped from 7% (see above) to 10%) -- obviously the grid operators are doing what they can to prevent black outs;
    • in addition, more oil being used, though no change in percentage contribution (20%)

The Concord Monitor: regularly reports on high cost of electricity / energy in New England; for example this article;

WTI: even at it's already high price, WTI surged 1.75%; up $1.50; trading solidly above $88.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$88.34
1/31/202201/31/202101/31/202001/31/201901/31/2018
Active Rigs32
13546559

Two new permits, #38765 - #38766, inclusive:

  • Operator: Murex
  • Field: Midway (Mountrail County)
  • Comments: 
    • Murex has permits for a KC-Dustin David well, and a KC-Nash Parker well, both to be sited on SWSW 9-157-95; 
    • they will be sited 301 FSl and between 766 FWL 796 FWL; again, as we're seeing elsewhere, the wellheads thirty feet apart

Active rigs: 33 but one is a SWD rig; did not check closely to see if any rigs listed twice;

Winter Storm Slams Texas -- January 31, 2022

Breaking: WTI now well over $88.00

Now, back to regular programming.

More federal money for North Dakota: North Dakota will receive up to $40 million to clean up abandoned oil and gas wells. Whoo-hoo! It appears only seven states will receive more than North Dakota, but not only is ND in the top seven or eight, it is also at the high end of federal money being disbursed. Link when I get it. Arrived in my e-mail from Department of Interior.

From the department:

The Department of the Interior today announced $1.15 billion in funding is available to states from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to create jobs cleaning up orphaned oil and gas wells across the country. This is a key initiative of President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which allocated a total of $4.7 billion to create a new federal program to address orphan wells. Millions of Americans across the country live within a mile of an orphaned oil and gas well.

Orphaned wells are polluting backyards, recreation areas, and public spaces across the country. The historic investments to clean up these hazardous sites will create good-paying, union jobs, catalyze economic growth and revitalization, and reduce dangerous methane leaks.

“President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law is enabling us to confront the legacy pollution and long-standing environmental injustices that for too long have plagued underrepresented communities,” said Secretary Deb Haaland. “We must act with urgency to address the more than one hundred thousand documented orphaned wells across the country and leave no community behind. This is good for our climate, for the health our communities, and for American workers.” 

Plugging orphaned wells will also help advance the goals of the U.S. Methane Emissions Reduction Action Plan, as well as the Interagency Working Group on Coal and Power Plant Communities and Economic Revitalization, which focuses on spurring economic revitalization in the hard-hit energy communities.

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Winter Storm Slams Texas

I keep reading all those news stories that a winter storm slammed Texas. 

Well, here's the video.

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The Market -- For The Archives

Wow, talk about an afternoon surge. After a slow start this morning, the market is now taking off. I guess mom-and-pop investors are not worried about the Fed raising the rate from 0.00000% to 0.25% or whatever they think it will be. 

My favorite chart:

Link here.

Updated through November 30, 2021. Still at record highs and trending higher. 

XLNX: wow. I've accumulated XLNX for decades. Today, I just happened to see it jumped $13, up over 7%, now trading about $191. This is still not a 52-week high. I wonder how much of this is due to a short squeeze. I think a lot of folks got burned on this one assuming the merger would not take place, after the Chinese delayed it. AMD is up almost $8.

Oil: "all" oil stocks are up.

Commodities are up: SCCO, FCX

AAPL: after soaring last week, up $12/share (?), AAPL is up another $3 / share today after a slow start.

PLUG: is up $2.76 on a $21 stock. Whoo-hoo!

It's hard to find anything that's trading down. If so, pretty much profit taking after recent jump in price. Even EPD is up a bit. LOL. What's ENB doing? Up nicely. EPD reports tomorrow, February 1, 2022, before market open; forecast, 54 cents EPS; "whisper number" is 57 cents.

Holy mackerel, NVDA is up $13. 

SBUX: I've never invested in SBUX and the company if facing a lot of headwinds but I need to diversity out of energy, and I'm seriously thinking of looking at SBUX. I'll wait to see what Jim Cramer has to say this evening. SBUX reports earnings at 5:00 a.m. ET tomorrow morning (February 1, 2022); forecast, 79 cents EPS. The "whisper number" is 82 cents.

ARKK: must be having an incredible day ... let's check ... yup, up 8%. 

S&P 500: up 83 points. Remember, under the 10:1 rule, this would equate to an 800 point jump in the Dow today; just saying.  

Dow: regardless, the Dow was up a remarkable 400 points. Go back and look at my favorite chart.

I'm posting this for the archives for the grandsons and their mother who will end up managing the portfolio after I die. At 75 years of age, I turn the portfolio over to our younger daughter. The twins will be in first or second grade by then, home schooled, majoring in the "3-R's" with a minor in business and investing.  

Prediction: the S&P 500 will hit 4,500 before it hits 4,600.

Note: the above companies fascinate me. I own shares in some but not all. I've been in and out of some of them over the years.  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Fast Money:

  • dead cat bounce; expect more volatility; expect to test lows again;
  • one day of trading doesn't change the tone of the market; still going to go back down
  • sigh of relief, but that's all; be skeptical; last day of the month; simply buying bargains in an over-sold bargain;
  • they all sound like "market timers" to me; not long-term investors;
  • panelist agrees: this is a "trading show"; not an investing show;
  • wow, talk about a lot of "Debbie Downers."
  • something tells me Jim Cramer will have a different take;
  • so they start off with: ARKK; TSLA; ZOOM;, Teladoc; Roku; none of them on my radar scope, though I did go off the reservation last year and started a position in ARKK; sold before end of year;
  • and, then having said that, one of the panelists is bullish on Teladoc;
  • another one? Trimble
  • another one? Palantir
  • it seems if one is willing to go down that road; there are a lot better companies to look at;
  • enough of this; moving on; next up, Mad Money

Mad Money:

  • unlike the Fast Money folks, Jim Cramer makes a case for a bull market for most commodities, and the S&P
  • I agree with Jim Cramer's "case" for a bull market, but with a huge pullback, probably during the summer 
  • Cramer never mentioned the mid-term elections but hard to believe we would see a recession prior to the mid-terms

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Jason Day And The Early Morning Club

From The WSJ

I’m writing this column at 4 a.m., but I need to level with you: It’s nowhere near as romantic as that sounds. I am not sitting in a hotel lobby, tuxedo bow tie unfurled, cigar smoldering in an ashtray, pecking at an old Underwood typewriter after a long night out with movie stars, rock gods and other assorted fabulous people.

The truth is I fell asleep last night right after reading to my kids. I passed out shortly before 9 p.m. with a copy of “Friendship According to Humphrey,” about a class pet hamster trying to adapt to a new frog in the room, resting atop my chest. (It’s a fun read. Humphrey is adorbs.)

I’m awake because over the past two years, I’ve joined a new club: the very, very early morning club. I know a lot of people have lives and jobs that require them to wake up extremely early, but this is a new lifestyle for me. It took two small children and one pandemic that kept us all home to figure out that if I was going to continue to be productive, and write nonsense humor columns like this one, I was going to need to be productive at an uncommon hour, sitting alone in the dark. 

I'll expand on this later. 

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Book Recommendation

Again, if interested in origin of solar system, earth, fossil fuel, origin of life, this is currently the best new book on the market right now for armchair/amateur biologists, geologists, fossil fuel aficionados. 

  • How The Mountains Grew
  • John Dvorak
  • c. 2021
  • Pegasus Books, August 2021

From the book, pages 145 - 147:

The Permian: why did so much oil accumulate in such a small region of the continent?

  • Burial of phytoplankton and zooplankton, often cyanobacteria or foraminifera -
  • buried in mud and silt; anaerobic (sealed off from oxygen); sealed off from decomposition by bacteria; the organic matter would change chemically into a waxy substance known as kerogen
    if burial continues; kerogen would turn into oil
  • the deeper the sediment, the higher the temperature, the move from natural gas to oil
  • the sweet spot in temperature, the "oil window," is between 140° and 250° Fahrenheit which corresponds to a burial range of five thousand to twenty thousand fee.
  • but it must be trapped: impermeable rock layers of salt or gypsum or similar material
  • the Permian Basin met those conditions,and it me them multiple times
  • most oil-rich regions ahve one or two places in the rock sequence (strata, formations, subformations)
  • the Bakken has a dozen +/-
    in the Permian Basin there are eleven such strata 
  • Midland:
  • multiple "plays" in the Wolfcamp Shale or the Bone Springs Formation
  • if it these multiple oil plays that gives West Texas the distinction of having one of the largest -- if not the largest -- reservoir in the world
  • which raises the next question: why were these conditions met multiple times in the Permian Basin?
  • the answer: it was a consequence of the collision of Euramerica and Gondwana and the formation of the supercontinent, Pangea.

To be continued in a future blog.

XOM Is Moving -- But Not Far -- Irving, TX, To Houston, TX -- January 31, 2022

Breaking: 4.6 earthquake in north central Oklahoma, near the Kansas state line. Not near any of the oil fields as far as I can tell. This will be sorted out later 

Now, back to regular programming.

Link here

ISO NE: now I know they're reading the blog. LOL. I was posting these graphics more than two years ago. Link here.

By the way, that's an old chart (January 24, 2022) -- NE ISO has burned coal in the past several days suggesting the utilities have run out of coal. 

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And, Then There's Always California Hypocrisy

Link here.

Energy Notes From All Over -- January 31, 2022

From the EIA:

At the link, release date (most recent data): November 4, 2021; next release date, December, 2022. The numbers will change dramatically after the next release. It is noteworthy that Texas is among the top five lowest-cost states despite that "Texas freeze" in 2021.

  • Selected states, average retail price, cents/kWh:
    • Massachusetts: 18.19 cents.
    • California: 18 cents.
    • Texas: 8.36 cents.
    • North Dakota: 8.53 cents.
  • Least expensive
    • Louisiana, 7.51 cents
    • Oklahoma: 7.63 cents
    • Idaho: 7.99 cents
  • Most expensive, lower 48
    • Connecticut, 19.13 cents 
    • Rhode Island: 18.54 cents
    • Massachusetts: 18.19 cents

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Shell Discovery Off Namibia

A bit of hyperbole? This is the headline: 

Shell makes oil and gas discovery off Namibia's coast. 

The story: Oil supermajor, Shell, has made a huge oil and gas discovery at a closely watched offshore well in the southern African nation of Namibia ...

So, how big was this discovery? Between 250 and 300 million bbls of oil and natural gas equivalent. 

"A huge discovery..."

As the reader who sent me this story, if this is a "huge" discovery, how would Zacks describe the Bakken. The reader noted that NOG -- a non-operator that got its start in North Dakota -- has that much oil in the Bakken.

In fact, according to Zacks, this discovery is so "huge," "it is unclear if the discoveries are substantial enough for [Shell] to go ahead with the development of the country's first deepwater field."

The good news: if Namibia grants Shell the permits to drill, it's unlikely a Namibian judge will come back later and vacate the permit. Although, having said that, nationalization is always on the table. 

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Driving Faux Environmentalists Nuts

There are stories now being reported that faux environmentalists are furious that oil companies and oil service companies are cashing in on carbon capture and sequestration. LOL.

This will make their heads explode: Schlumberger Tech got the contract for Northern Lights.

Northern Lights:

  • part of Longship -- Norway's largest climate initiative
    • a full-scale carbon capture and storage project
    • operations are scheduled to start in 2024
    • annual capacity of 1.5 million tons of CO2 / year
    • possibility to expand to 3.5 million tons
  • EU: designated Northern Lights as a Project of Common Interest
    • key cross-border infrastructure program, linking European energy systems to achieve its energy and climate objectives and decided to provide $4.5 million for the expansion of the project
  • not only is this a money-maker for SLB, it will offset its carbon impact elsewhere

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California Fossil Fuel Utilities, 1 -- Solar, 0

It would be interesting to know more of the backstory on this one.

From SeekingAlpha:

  • California's solar proposal is a game-changer: WoodMac
    • California regulators considering a proposal to cut incentives and add fees for rooftop solar systems
    • the proposals would double the payback periods for home solar to more than ten years;
    • payback periods for projects built this year would increase from six years to fifteen years;
  • bait-and-switch?
  • the investment market? Invesco's Solar ETF suffered a $417 million of outflows in December, 2021, the worst month in its 14-year history;

One wonders what brought all this on? California's economy is booming; the state has a record surplus in its coffers. 

This makes no sense at all considering California's commitment to carbon emissions.

My hunch: they looked at the outyears, 2030 and beyond, and did the math. Wanted to nip a disaster in the bud, as they say. 

California is already among the top five most expensive states for electricity. Rooftop solar will make it even worse. California knows this will drive high-energy commercial users out of the state:

  • gigabattery manufacturers
  • conventional data centers
  • crypto-mining

It's also possible 90% of Californians who will not "buy into" rooftop solar have started a letter-writing campaign complaining that their solar neighbors are getting a free ride.

A "New" Shell; A Huge Penzey Misstep; Saudi's OSP; And Amazon Prime -- January 31, 2022

First things first, truckers in Saskatchewan headed towards Ottawa. Link here

Now, back to regular programming.

Shell:

First it changes its focus, then it changes its name, now it completes simplification with single line assimilation. Link here at Rigzone.

The company formerly knowns as Royal Dutch Shell plc is now, simply, Shell

As of early this morning, still two trading symbols, RDS-A and RDS-B but both appear to be trading at same price. It will probably take awhile for company to make the administrative changes for a new single ticker symbol. One would assume they would drop the "RD" from the RDS ticker. 

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To Infinity And Kiri
OPEC Basket Price

Link here


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Penzeys 

On April 20, 2021, I mentioned that "Penzeys BBQ 3000 is my go-to rub for Cornish hen."

Now this, "the spice company -- Penzeys -- that called Republicans racist begging for gift card purchases after losing customers."

Link here; https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/spice-company-that-called-republicans-racist-begs-for-gift-card-purchases-after-losing-customers. 

I assume greater than 50% of their market self-identifies as Republican.

No further comment. 

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Amazon Prime

Subscribers need to brace for a $20-increase in annual subscription cost. 

Our younger daughter recently sent us a very light, small package from Portland, OR, using USPS. That very light, small package cost $17.91 to ship.

I don't think a $20-increase for an Amazon Prime subscription will break the bank. 

In addition, I"m watching a lot more Amazon Prime Video these days. I watch no Apple original programming.

NOG Update: Announces Closing Or Previously Announced Veritas Acquisition In The Permian -- January 31, 2022

NOG: update. Announces closing of Permian Basin acquisition from Veritas Energy. 

  • closing settlement: $419.4 million in cash + 1.94 million common stock warrants at $28.30 / share
  • additional information here; previously posted
  • this NOG-Permian acquisition is a different deal;
  • back-of-envelope:
  • 1.94 *28.30 = $55 million
  • + $419.4 million = $474.3 million
  • $474.3 million / 9,100 boepd = $52,000 / boepd
  • at 10,500 boepd estimate in 2022 = $45,000 / boepd
  • Delaware Basin, core, 6,000 net acres = $79,000 / acre

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

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Meanwhile, Earthstone Energy With Midland Basin Acquisition

One may want to read the history of Earthstone Energy, et al, at this post. Somehow it reaches back to Aubrey McClendon. 

Link here. Will acquire the assets of privately held Bighorn Permian Resources located in the Midland Basin

  • primarily Reagan and Irion counties
  • purchase price: $860 million
    • cash: $770 million
    • 6.8 million shares Earthstone's stock valued at $90 million ($13.25 / share on January 28, 2021)
  • 42,400 boepd
  • 110,600 net acres
  • back-of-the-envelope:
    • $20,000 / boepd
    • $8,000 / acre
  • also has pending Chisholm Acquisition pending
  • Earthstone + Chisholm: currently four rigs in Midland Basin and Delaware Basin respectively
  • appears to be a "bolt-on addition"

Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- January 31, 2022

NOG: update. Announces closing of Permian Basin acquisition from Veritas Energy. 

  • closing settlement: $419.4 million in cash + 1.94 million common stock warrants at $28.30 / share
  • additional information here; previously posted
  • this NOG-Permian acquisition is a different deal;
  • back-of-envelope:
  • 1.94 *28.30 = $55 million
  • + $419.4 million = $474.3 million
  • $474.3 million / 9,100 boepd = $52,000 / boepd
  • at 10,500 boepd estimate in 2022 = $45,000 / boepd
  • Delaware Basin, core, 6,000 net acres = $79,000 / acre

Shooting oil in a barrel: Doomberg 

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$87.07
1/31/202201/31/202101/31/202001/31/201901/31/2018
Active Rigs3113546559

Monday, January 31, 2022: 55 for the month, 55 for the quarter, 55 for the year

  • 37983, conf-->loc/drl, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 9-26H, Westberg, no production data,
  • 37909, conf-->loc/drl, CLR, Charolais South Federal 11-10H2, Elm Tree, no production data,

Sunday, January 30, 2022: 53 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 53 for the year

  • 37986, conf-->loc/drl,CLR, Clear Creek Federal 8-26H1, Westberg, no production data,
  • 37908, conf-->loc/drl, CLR, Charolais South Federal 10-10H, Elm Tree, no production data,
Saturday, January 29, 2022: 51 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year
  • 37984, conf-->loc/drl, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 7026H, Westberg, no production data,
  • 37907, conf-->loc/drl, CLR, Charolais South Federal 9-10H1, Elm Tree, no production data,

RBN Energy: after MVP setback, is the Appalachia gas forward curve wrong?

There was no shortage of drama in the U.S. natural gas market last week. The February Henry Hub CME/NYMEX contract expired in a blaze of glory after frenzied short-covering led to the largest single-day percentage gain since Henry futures began trading in the 1990s. The Northeast was bracing for a weekend “bomb cyclone,” a particularly gnarly nor’easter that brought frigid temperatures and threatened to disrupt the market just as heating demand spiked. But there was another, more subtle but still seismic event that occurred, one that is likely to reverberate well beyond the near-term horizon. Namely, the Equitrans Midstream-led, 2-Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline — the only major expansion project left for increasing egress out of the Appalachian gas supply basin — lost two key federal permits, all but ensuring that the long-delayed project will miss its latest target in-service date of this summer, and potentially be held back another year, or more. In our Top 10 Prognostications for 2022 blog, #7 predicted more severe capacity constraints and weaker basis differentials for Appalachian gas producers. This is the latest indication that things could get worse — and sooner — than previously expected. In today’s RBN blog, we focus on our latest outlook for Appalachia’s gas takeaway constraints and basis pricing.

For those holding onto a glimmer of hope that the long-delayed Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) — a big and important greenfield Appalachia natural gas takeaway project — would finally come to fruition this year, it’s safe to say those dreams were shattered last week. On January 25, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit vacated federal permits from the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management that were needed to complete a 3.5-mile stretch of the mainline through the Jefferson National Forest along the West Virginia-Virginia border. The ruling said the permit approvals were premature — issued before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) environmental assessment — and failed to comply with the Forest Service’s 2012 Planning rule. The decision effectively sends the project back into the review process for the second time since construction began in 2018.

Sunday, January 30, 2022

10:33 P.M. CT — January 30, 2022 — WTI Just Hit $88.01

For investors, the actual price is less important than the direction/trend.

“Focus on Fracking” Has Posted — January 30, 2022

Focus on Fracking”: this week’s edition has posted. The lede:

Oil prices hit a 7-year high, natural gas hits a 14-year high on largest one day price jump on record; natural gas supplies see largest draw this winter; gasoline inventories up most in any 4 week period since Jan 1990 as gasoline demand, excluding worst Covid drops, is at a 10 year low; gasoline imports at an 87-week low; total inventories of oil and all products made from it are at a 7-1/2-year low with Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a new 19 year low.

That NFL Overtime Rule Controversy All Last Week? Never Mind -- Kansas City Chiefs / Some Other Team Settled That Controversy This Afternoon -- January 30, 2022

On another note: when it comes to the big games, the announcers are top-notch. CBS has Tony Romo who is arguably the best in the business, perhaps taking over the mantel of John Madden, but in a different way. 

Alongside Tony Romo is Jim Nantz. Joe Buck on Fox is outstanding, as is Troy Aiken, but Tony Romo has more genuine enthusiasm than Aiken. On NBC, Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth were the best for so many years, but they are getting a bit long in the tooth as they say.

WTI: nice move up, Sunday night. Up about 1%. 

Texas weather, one word: beautiful. A high of 70° this afternoon. Will be cold mid-week but nice until then. Daughter went paddle boarding on Lake Grapevine today; she said lots of activity on the lake today.

Covid-19:

  • upwards of 100,000 fans in American NFL stadiums today; no one wearing masks
  • Canada: zero in any stadium but 100's of thousands on the streets in Ottawa, no one except the cops wearing masks

Watching NFL all afternoon despite the incredibly beautify biking weather: sorry. Not sorry. 

Canada: truckers across Saskatchewan headed to Ottawa; they will need to stop by "Corner Gas" to re-fuel. LOL. Link here. "Corner Gas?" Here

Note To Mom-And-Pop Hess / Bruin Mineral Owners -- January 30, 2022

A reader sent me a note, suggesting I post this in case some mom-and-pop mineral owners missed it.

The reader noted that his/her most recent statement from HESS was less than usual. 

It turns out that Enerplus acquired Hess wells in Little Knife oil field, Dunn County (and maybe elsewhere) this past summer. Those wells are now "dropped" from Hess and will end up on Enerplus statements, if I have this correct.

As of November, 2021, these wells, according to the reader, were still showing up on their Hess statement, suggesting the transfer was not completed until recently. 

It's also possible, there could be a delay in Enerplus getting royalties out to mineral owners with regard to these wells during the transition.

Again, I have not confirmed this and I won't. This is just something the reader thought might be useful for mom-and-pop mineral owners who have Hess wells in Dunn County.

Along that same line, Enerplus also required Bruin assets last summer. I have no idea where that stands. 

Again, this is coming from a reader. 

If this is important to you do NOT rely on my blog. Go to the source. In this case: Hess, Enerplus, Bruin, and the NDIC scout tickets (which may or may not be current).

Following ISO NE Is Absolutely Fascinating -- January 30, 2022

I find this absolutely fascinating.

Boston coming off a weekend winter storm.

Sunday, the airports are open.

It's dinner time in Boston and electricity demand is probably peaking for the day.

Demand and price (8th decile):

Note: the fuel mix, absolutely fascinating.


Fuel mix:

  • coal, black arro: all indications -- ISO NE has run out of coal
  • demand is peaking: 
  • renewable energy, green arrow: just as demand is peaking, renewable energy is "falling"; wind is crapping out;
  • ISO NE: is scrambling to find electricity
  • hydro, red arrow: being tapped; very expensive, spot price
  • natural gas, blue arrow: is rising
  • nuclear, of course, is flat-lined at max available;
  • but just when you need renewable energy most, it's falling (and failing)
  • no risk of power outages from lack of electricity: additional hydro is still available; not sure if additional oil is available; or how much additional natural gas is available;

Federal Government Helping North Dakotans With Heating Bills -- January 30, 2022

Years ago, a reader wrote to tell me that North Dakotans received more federal dollars "back" than they ever paid into federal taxes. Probably. 

And it continues. 

Link here.


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And Now A Supreme Court Justice

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This Was Mentioned On The Blog Years Ago

Link here


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Meanwhile In Canada

"We can't take it any more." Link here. The video is amazing.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- January 30, 2022

The wells:

  • 36618, conf, Petroshale, Anderson South 2TFH, Croff, no production data,
  • 38444, conf, Eagle Operating, Ober 20-5, Great Northern, no production data,
  • 38421, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 3-10-03-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
  • 38420, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 2-10-03-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
  • 37331, conf, Hess, EN-Rice-A-155-94-0310H-5, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20211475418450
10-202164168975
9-20212441435412
8-20213116962746
  • 36619, conf, Petroshale, Anderson South 3MBH, Cross, no production data,  
  • 35130, conf, Enerplus, Blackwidow 149-92-32D-29H, Heart Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-202168964189
10-202135482217
9-202125161429
8-20211749713
  • 38422, conf,  Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 4-10-03-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
  • 37448, conf, Koda Resources Operating, Porter 2614-2BH, Bar Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2021132466427
10-202112762737
9-2021114860
  • 38423, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 5-10-03-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
  • 35131, conf, Enerplus, Huntsman 149-92-32D-29H-TF1, Heart Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2021140278496
10-20213220820107
9-20213096417583
8-202123489957
  • 38424, conf,  Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 6-10-03-158N-100W-MBH-LL, 
  • 38386, conf, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-6-7H3, Green Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-202183061932
  • 37980, conf, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 2-26HSL2, Westberg, no production data, 
  • 37913, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 15-10H, Elm Tree, no production data, 
  • 38385, conf, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-6-7H2, Green Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-202192882041
  • 37981, conf,  CLR, Clear Creek Federal 3-26H, Westberg, no production data, 
  • 37912, conf,  CLR, Charolais South Federal 14-10H2, Elm Tree, no production data, 
  • 37332, conf, Hess, EN-Rice-A-155-94-0310H-2, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20211430015615
10-20212371930929
9-20212808949677
8-20213790041124
  • 37982, conf,  CLR, Clear Creek Federal 4-26H1, Westberg, no production data, 
  • 37911, conf,  CLR, Charolais South Federal 13-19H, Elm Tree, no production data, 
  • 37910, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 12-10H, Elm Tree, no production data, 
  • 37983, conf, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 9-26H, Westberg, no production data, 
  • 37909, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 11-10H2, Elm Tree, no production data, 
  • 37986, conf, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 8-26H1, Westberg, no production data, 
  • 37908, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 10-10H, Elm Tree, no production data, 
  • 37984, conf,  CLR, Clear Creek Federal 7026H, Westberg, no production data, 
  • 37907, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 9-10H1, Elm Tree, no production data,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- January 30, 2022

Monday, February 7, 2022: 22 for the month, 77 for the quarter, 77 for the year
36618, conf, Petroshale, Anderson South 2TFH,

Sunday, February 6, 2022: 21 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 76 for the year
38444, conf, Eagle Operating, Ober 20-5,
38421, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 3-10-03-158N-
38420, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 2-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,
37331, conf, Hess, EN-Rice-A-155=94-0310H-5,
36619, conf, Petroshale, Anderson South 3MBH,
35130, conf, Enerplus, Blackwidow 149-92-32D-29H,

Saturday, February 5, 2022: 15 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 70 for the year
38422, conf,  Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 4-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,
37448, conf, Koda Resources Operating, Porter 2614-2BH,

Friday, February 4, 2022: 13 for the month, 68 for the quarter, 68 for the year
38423, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 5-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,
35131, conf, Enerplus, Huntsman 149-92-32D-29H-TF1,

Thursday, February 3, 2022: 11 for the month, 66 for the quarter, 66 for the year
38424, conf,  Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 6-10-03-158N-100W-MBH-LL,
38386, conf, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-6-7H3,
37980, conf, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 2-26HSL2,
37913, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 15-10H,

Wednesday, February 2, 2022: 7 for the month, 62 for the quarter, 62 for the year
38385, conf, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-6-7H2,
37981, conf, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 3-26H,
37912, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 14-10H2,
37332, conf, Hess, EN-Rice-A-155-94-0310H-2,

Tuesday, February 1, 2022: 3 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 58 for the year
37982, conf, CLR, Clark Creek Federal 4-26H1,
37911, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 13-19H,
37910, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 12-10H, 

Monday, January 31, 2022: 55 for the month, 55 for the quarter, 55 for the year
37983, conf, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 9-26H,
37909, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 11-10H2,

Sunday, January 30, 2022: 53 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 53 for the year
37986, conf, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 8-26H1,
37908, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 10-10H,

Saturday, January 29, 2022: 51 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year
37984, conf, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 7026H,
37907, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 9-10H1,

That Was Fast -- Storm Is Over -- Boston Airport Is Open -- January 30, 2022

Link here.

***************************************
Groundhog Day In New England -- Since 2017

Link here

And this:

*****************************
Groundhog Day In The Mideast

Link here.



Saturday, January 29, 2022

WIthin Just A Few Years, UK Gas Production Could Plunge 75% -- Source -- Guess Things Happen That Way -- January 29, 2022

Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. Headline says it all; details unimportant to me. Guess things happen that way.

Guess Things Happen That Way, Jack Clement

******************************
Book Recommendation

Again, if interested in origin of solar system, earth, fossil fuel, origin of life, this is currently the best new book on the market right now for armchair/amateur biologists, geologists, fossil fuel aficionados. 

  • How The Mountains Grew
  • John Dvorak
  • c. 2021
  • Pegasus Books, August 2021

From the book, pages 131 - 133:

Eons, eras, and periods

That's it. Three geologic "divisions": eons, eras, and periods.

With two exceptions, two "sub-periods":

  • the Pennsylvanian (upper)
  • the Mississippian (lower)
  • The Brits sometimes (often?) refer to these as:
    • the lower carboniferous;
    • the upper carboniferous.

Let's take a look at coal:

  • not evenly distributed around the world
  • great abundance / vast majority of coal deposits are found in just five countries:
  • India, China, Australia, and Russia: significant deposits; but,
  • king of coal: the country with largest coal reserves: the United States

How did this come about:

  • geologically there is a noticeable change from the deposition of limestone during the Mississippian subperiod to the deposition to coal;
  • thus, a second subperiod has been created, the Pennsylvanian
  • these are the only two subperiods in the geologic time scale

Introduction of the term cyclothem.

  • layers of alternating strata: 
    • sandstone, formed upon a surface that had been cut by sea (saltwater) waves;
    • then, a layer of silt, formed by the flow of freshwater;
    • then coal;
  • then repeating: sandstone, silt, and the coal again
  • this pattern given a name: cyclothem

Many cyclothems have been named:

  • the Dennis cyclothem: southwest of Dennis, KS
  • the Plattsburg cyclothem: along a road cut west of Altoona, KS
  • Wabaunsee cyclothem: at the side of I-70, west of Topeka, KS
  • stretches for hundreds of miles from West Texas and across Kansas and Illinois and into the hills of Appalachia 

So, if coal "came from" plant material, why is the distribution of coal so limited worldwide?

Mississippian subperiod:

  • Eurameria -- the former Laurentia now enlarged by the additional of the continental bits of Baltica and Avalonia during the Devoniian Period -- straddled the equator;
  • all other continental material had gathered and formed the large landmass of Gondwana,
  • during the Pennsylvania subperiod, sat over the South Pole.

And, thus the reason why US is king of coal when it comes to coal reserves. 

Is The Nor'eastern Over? Aircraft Starting To Fly Back Into East Coast / New England Airports -- 6:38 P.M. CT -- January 29, 2022

Flight radar herehttps://www.flightradar24.com/36.22,-75.43/6. At the time I am updating this, aircraft are starting to fly into East Coast and New England airports. Not sure about Boston.

And Now We Wait For The Power Outages; A Bit Of Commentary Regarding ISO NE -- January 29, 2022

Later, 9:45 p.m. CT: telephone call from friend in Boston. The storm is over; it was hardly a storm. A dusting is about all there was for Boston.

Power outage risks, Saturday, January 29, 2022, 7:42 p.m. CT -- right up the eastern seaboard, New England:

Right now, Saturday afternoon, 5:52 p.m. ET:

  • demand: 18,144 MW; moderately high; nowhere near a record
  • oil is now contributing more than nuclear power, and is double what renewables are providing:
  • it looks like the region has run out of coal, or the plants are down for other reasons, but not using their least expensive, option, coal;
  • hydro only at 6%; very expensive option;
  • this helps explain why Senator Elizabeth Warren keeps bringing up other issues to try to keep folks from seeing this -- but they will see it in their utility bills;
  • this is a much bigger issue than college tuition debt;

Earlier today:




Additional commentary:

1.) The single remaining coal burner - Merrimack, capacity 415 megawatts - has intermittently shut down/operated at 108 Mw output over the past few weeks. Whether this 60-year-old plant has operational issues or is fuel constrained, I do not know.

2.) Interestingly, the Millstone 2 nuke plant (~1,000 Mw capacity) has been offline for a week due to a leaking pump.  Back online now. [That explains the earlier fuel mix graphic at this post.]

3.) That regular surge in hydro is undoubtedly coming from the Northfield Mountain project which is a pumped storage system. This plant can produce ~ 800/1,000 megawatts every 24 hours, BUT it was originally conceived when obtaining cheap, overnight electricity from the nearby Vermont Yankee nuke plant was available. As Vermont Yankee is now closed, the Northfield Mountain folks are compelled to buy market priced, overnight electricity. This explains why the heretofore cheap overnight electricity prices remain at nose bleed levels. (Supposedly, the net output - economically -  from Northfield is now less than the current electricity production which is fed in at the morning and evening 'rush hour' demand times.)

4.) Regarding the natural gas supply, the FSRU Exemplar is coming up to its fourth week of injecting natgas into the system via the Northeast Gateway Port just offshore Boston. Sourced from Trinidad. This is about the limits of its carrying LNG capacity (based upon the January, 2019 injection history) and I do not know if a replacement FSRU is scheduled to replace it. The company Excelerate owns/operates the Northeast Port and has about a dozen FSRUs worldwide. Replacing that FSRU appears to be absolutely  crucial to maintaining New England's already precarious power situation these next 5/6 weeks.

5.) The site marinetraffic.com is a real time, global trafficking site for worldwide shipping ... an incredible site for the maritime junkies amongst us. The size of the non stop armada of ships delivering expensive fuel oil to New England is simply breath taking. This directly leads to ...

6.) Setting aside all the eye glazing economic components of the ISO/Regular Folks' monthly electricity billings, that constant $160/$200 per Megawatt hour wholesale price we keep seeing will manifest in about 5 month's time in New Englanders' electric bills. 
For rough context, a mere 10 months ago - March, 2021 - the average wholesale electricity price was ~$16/Mwh. With pricing currently, consistently  at 10 times that level,  those poor folks will see absolutely crushing electricity pricing in a few month's time. AND they will still be fortunate IF they have not had blackouts. (See FSRU status for the supply of critically needed natgas).

With all this drama (I picture ISO head van Welie acting like the Lloyd Bridges character in the movie 'Airplane'), New England is facing 2 to 3 more winters - minimum -  of these conditions as lead times for any workable 'solutions'  take just that long. 
Compounding all this self-induced idiocy, there currently  exists NO viable, mid term pathway to alleviate this situation as the huge, power-sustaining LNG terminal at Everett is scheduled to be shut down in 2024.

Simply fascinating- albeit morbidly  so - to observe so many intelligent, concerned people hurtle headlong into a self destructing situation.

And, one more observation:

Brief mention of the availability of natgas and Boston's temperature ... 
When you noted the changing percentage/usage of the natgas component in New England's electricity generation, just Google 'Boston temperature' and you will find a 100% correlation between coldness and natgas availability for power burn. 
This is identical to South Australia's electricity prices and the contemporaneous  temperature and wind speed.

Update On The Three Best Sites For Tracking The Cyclone Bomb -- January 29, 2022

Updates

Later, 6:00 p.m. CT: the "cyclone bomb" remains settles in off shore Boston.Wow, wow, wow -- flights are starting to arrive back in Boston. This storm lasted less than twelve hours, at least as far as the airlines were concerned. They started canceling flights earlier but that was to get aircraft positioned in proper airports. Flights are also arriving New York.

Original Post 

Earlier I said these were the best three sites for tracking the nor'eastern, Winter Storm Kenanf:

The winds: one can pick any point on the globe, to get wind speed, direction and exact GPS coordinates. 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-71.09,30.29,2600/loc=-70.727,42.505.

ISO NE, of course: https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/charts.

  • at the linked site, fine “fuel mix”;
  • click on “renewables”
  • note wind component
  • % renewable  times % wind = % wind component

Flight radar herehttps://www.flightradar24.com/36.22,-75.43/6. At the time I am updating this, there is one plane "stranded" at Logan Airport (Boston). 

THIS IS SO COOL. Updated at 3:21 p.m. CT, Saturday, January 29, 2022.

I just checked the three sites.

1. The "cyclone' is now just to the east of Boston, having moved from off-shore North Carolina overnight.

2.  There remains one stranded airplane at Logan airport. This has not changed from overnight.

3. There are but a handful of stranded planes at Newark and at JFK but most amazing, while checking Flight Radar for this update, a Bombardier Global 6000 (GLEX) was headed from the northwest (over Pennsylvania) headed into Newark when it literally -- in front of my eyes while watching Flight Radar -- was diverted, making a sharp left turn toward White Plains, NY. It had been on a 120° heading (heading southeast) when it abruptly turned to the northeast on a 45° heading. Pretty amazing to see that live on a random observation. Right now I see plane (call sign N408GJ) having just departed Newark, with a heading due south, 180° and now turning to the southwest, along the coast, over central New Jersey. That plane is a private plane, with flight plans from Teterboro Airport (New Jersey, 12 miles from midtown Manhattan) to Raleigh-Durham.

There is a Lear Jet en route to NYC.

It appears that another plane (XAJCZ) was also headed to Newark and was suddenly diverted and is now headed toward JFK. This is a US Customs and Immigration Enforcement aircraft. Nope, it appears it returned to Teterboro. And that aforementioned GLEX aircraft appears to have landed at Teterboro also.

CLR Mountain Gap Wells Updated -- January 29, 2022

Link here

Last update was back in 2019. Look at how much these wells have produced since the last update. 

That dreaded Bakken decline. 

Twenty years from now, they're going to say, "we under-estimated the Bakken." LOL.

Closing The Loop -- PSX -- January 29, 2022

Earlier a reader and I commiserated about the share price of PSX after earnings were announced. 

Closing the loop:

Maybe this is why, link here

  • Phillips 66 says the cost to maintain / repair its refineries in 2022 will be $800 - $900 million. An anlyst noted this is the highest in the history of the company.

AMGN -- January 29, 2022

How did I miss this?

I just stumbled across this. I don't know how I missed it and I have no idea why I checked. There must be at least one reader who follows AMGN. LOL. 

AMGN: raised its dividend from $.176 to $1.94.

  • let's see:
  • (194-176)/176 = a ten percent increase in the dividend

Oh, that's right. I check in on dividend announcements every day or so.  

Links for "Investors" here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

You Can't Talk About The Bakken And Not Mention MRO; Now Another Mediocre MRO Well Trending Toward 550K Bbls Crude Cumulative -- January 29, 2022

The well:

Here we go again:

  • an MRO well;
  • the Bailey oil field;
  • the MRO re-frack program
  • originally drilled fifteen years ago;

Production when this well was approaching a decade of production:

BAKKEN9-20153012644125815793943264911408
BAKKEN8-2015311003010121503480766529302
BAKKEN7-201531152241520986121274510588344
BAKKEN6-2015301813218447128331408899182050
BAKKEN5-201522338132053485276012591020
BAKKEN4-2015182298229230251492154984
BAKKEN3-201511134311061947957144611

And coming from such mediocrity when it was first drilled. This is the initial production. It never got above 8,000 bbls / month until it jumped from 2,000 bbls / month to 15,000 bbls / month many years later. Hubbert said that wouldn't happen. Wiki needs to update the Hubbert entry. But they won't; doesn't fit the narrative.

Initial production:

BAKKEN1-200831412243109142272270
BAKKEN12-2007314924508912075405400
BAKKEN11-200730513949481075118311830
BAKKEN10-200729764479892493120212020
BAKKEN9-20074179496712404694690