The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 10/19/21

Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Notes From All Over -- The Flathead Lake Edition -- October 19, 2021

Let's Go, Bakken -- October 19, 2021

Richest man in the world:

1999: Bill Gates, $90 billion
2007: Bill Gates, $56 billion
2017: Bill Gates, $86 billion
2021: Elon Musk, $230 billion

Coal: largest US coal miner sees 17% share price surge. Link to Julianne Geiger.

Begs: Resident Biden reportedly "begging" OPEC to increase production. Link to Charles Kennedy.

Eagle Ford: Clariant opens state-of-the-art Eagle Ford technology center. Link here.

Permian: production near pre-covid record numbers. Link to Rigzone.

Oil output in America’s most prolific shale patch is getting closer to levels seen before the pandemic-driven market crash, as crude prices surge.

While total production in the U.S. is still lagging, the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico is increasing output to an average of 4.826 million barrels a day in October.

That’s close to a revised 4.913 million barrel-a-day record set in March 2020, just before the pandemic unleashed widespread demand destruction globally, triggering production shutdowns and bankruptcies across the country.

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Let's Go, Bakken

Pipeline construction begins: North Bakken Expansion Project, northwestern ND -- see this note for full background --

construction begins
250 million cubic feet of natural gas per day from the Bakken formation
63 miles
$260 million
peak construction will require upwards of 450 people

Active rigs:

$82.96	10/19/2021	10/19/2020	10/19/2019	10/19/2018	10/19/2017
Active Rigs	29	15	61	71	56

Two new permits:

Operator: MRO
Field: Bailey (Dunn)
Comments:

MRO has permits for a Wilma well and a Greenshields well, both in SESE 9-146-93, one will be sited 404 FSL and 1166 FEL; the other, 404 FSL and 1126 FEL

Eight permits canceled:

Oasis (5): five Ramirez permits in McKenzie County
Bowline (Nine Point Energy): a Lee permit in McKenzie County
SHD: an Epsilon permit in McLean County, section 18-150-91
EOG: a Ross permit in Mountrail County, section 9-156-92

Notes From All Over, Let's Go, Brandon -- October 19, 2021

Netflix: apparently a great quarter; I came to the conversation on "Fast Money" late, but panelists are using some strong adjectives to describe NFLX

the quarter's subscriber growth of 4.4 million was a solid beat over the expected 3.84 million
beat on earnings
came in line with revenue
is trouncing competitors
Netflix is beating Disney when it comes to younger demographics and gaming
the meme is that Disney has the lock on this demographic and gaming; turns out to be not true
and Netflix is growing that advantage
this is so funny - it was a lark a decade ago (?) that my very first "the next big thing" was Netflix

Bitcoin: continues to surge.

first ETF approved by SEC today;
up another $2,765;
now trading over $64,000;

Covid-19:

pregnancy: folks may want to google news in past month; I'll get back to this later with links;

vaccine rollout: have the numbers peaked? preliminary data suggests Biden's mandate is crumbling;
Southwest airlines: blinks
US Supreme Court: trifecta; three out of three; won't stop mandate; first-time state mandate challenged; anti-vaxxers fail; but court has not made "final" call

Apple:

the reviews and stories are still coming in;
one word: revolution
will take awhile to get caught up

United Airlines

shares popping after hours
a loss for 3Q21 -- but less than expected
won't know when the company will turn a profit
loss, 3Q21: a loss of $1.02 vs a loss of 1.67 expected
revenue: $7.76 billion vs $7.64 billion expected
fuel cost up 63% since last year -- let's go Brandon

can't pass full cost of fuel to consumer any more?
perhaps some / most of the cost but not not all
looks like fuel surcharge coming

negative margins
up 2.2% in after hours trading
still with huge debt problem

Mexico:

to energy companies in "USA SW": adios, hasta luego
to energy companies in Texas: hola!
link to Platts; maybe more later

Cramer: opening monologue -- telling folks not to freak out with regard to inflation; he thinks there are four sectors that are inflation winners:

energy
financial
technology
drug companies

energy:

first four or five were his first four or five; "if there is a down day on the market and you don't buy three of these, you're an idiot (or something to that effect; I forget the exact word he used):

Devon
Pioneer
Cheniere
Tellurian
EPD -- Cramer says he absolutely "hated" pipeline companies and said he would never invest in them again; now, he says one can't ignore the pipelines, giving special mention to two
Williams
Coterra
Schlumberger: gold standard; after HAL's numbers today, expects good numbers from SLB later this week;
Chevron
Halliburton

financial (banks):

BofA
Morgan Stanley
Wells Fargo: a wild card; turnaround play

tech (he had two groups):

first group

Adobe
workday
salesforce
AWS
Microsoft

second group

Nvidia
AMD
Lam Research
Paloalto
Applied Materials
Snap,Inc
Facebook
Crowdstrike
Cloudflare
servicenow
Snowflake

drug companies (those with new products):

Lilly: new Alzheimer's drug
JNJ

others:

WMT
Proctor and Gamble: ability to raise prices

Apple's Chip Revolution; WTI Continues To Move Up -- October 19, 2021

This story is playing out. More later. Going on a bike ride.

Both XLNX and AMD fell in trading today. Perhaps profit-taking; perhaps not.

AAPL is moving up nicely.

Laptop market is decelerating but Apple is putting a lot of emphasis on the MacBook Pro.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Wow, wow, wow: I just got back from my bike ride and I see both AMD and XLNX have gone green. Wow.

HAL: mixed. Matched forecasts with quarterly profit of 28 cents per share. Revenue fell short. Upbeat for the rest of the year and going into next year.

CNBC interview: I certainly hope we can find the interview with the CEO of Blackrock. Talk about bullish. Interview about 11:50 a.m. CT today. Rick Rieder, BlackRock CEO: incredibly bullish interview, yesterday over at CNBC; a must-hear interview for any investor.

Per reader's request: WTI is up. Trading at $83.68.

Venezuela On The Southern Border: Mexico Moves To Seize American Assets -- October 19, 2021

This is an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, from two days ago.

This will not end well.

Under cover of darkness, according to a person familiar with the matter, Mexican National Guard troops sealed the front gates of the Monterra Energy fuel terminal in Tuxpan, Veracruz, last month. The facility was closed by order of Mexico’s energy regulator.

Monterra Energy is owned by the American global investment firm KKR. Its Tuxpan terminal stores gasoline imported from refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast. The fuel is destined for service stations in Mexico, which are owned and operated by a variety of companies.

According to the Mexican newspaper Reforma, the Tuxpan terminal is part of roughly $500 million that companies have invested in gasoline and diesel storage facilities in Mexico. This includes terminals run by IEnova, a subsidiary of San Diego-based Sempra Energy, and Indiana-based Bulkmatic. Reforma reports that both companies have had storage terminals closed recently by Mexican authorities. Monterra told me it has complied with all regulations but that the energy regulator isn’t answering its calls and the terminal remains closed.

There’s trouble brewing between Mexico and the U.S., and I’m not talking about immigration. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s desire to put the state in full control of the energy industry, as it was in the 1970s, is running head-first into treaty obligations on trade and investment. The arbitrary closing of private gasoline-storage facilities is a fraction of the problem.

Much more at the link.

Notes From All Over -- Let's Go, Bitcoin -- October 19, 2021

Bitcoin: continues to surge. Up another $1,300 today. Now trading over $62,600.

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Apple's Focus Group

The fifth-generation MacBook Pro laptops are incredible on so many levels. Most obvious, Tim Cook threw out all the "revolutionary" changes in the previous generation that irritated the "pro" base / the core Apple base. It is quite amazing. Steve Jobs' personality was such my hunch is Steve Jobs would have stayed the course.

Tim Cook must have been thinking about this a long, long time.

If one reflects on the special event yesterday, it seems Tim Cook went back to that which made Apple huge: music. Steve Jobs figured that out -- perhaps lucked into it with the iPod -- but regardless, music made Apple, and Steve Jobs tapped into that.

The presentation began with Tim Cook saying the special event would be about two things: music and the MacBook Pro.

The opening video was an incredible mash-up of just that: music and Apple. So much fun -- from a single opening note to a computer-generated orchestral product, the video took us from Apple's very beginning to where we are today.

Four incredible reverses:

instead of eliminating ports, added more ports, something "everyone" has been requesting;
back to the MagSafe power "slot"; "everyone" was completely dismayed when Apple eliminated MagSafe;
back to a tried and proven keyboard;
removal of that TouchBar

The ports.

The headphone jack is particularly interesting. It would have been fun being a fly on the wall as this debate was being hammered out in Tim Cook's office. He must have been for keeping the headphone jack from the beginning whereas the pushback to get rid of the jack must have been incredible. But when the decision was made, to keep the jack, the soldiers stood up and saluted. But they did one more thing. They said, "fine, if the jack stays, it's going to be even better."

From MacRumors:

Apple's new MacBook Pro models are equipped with the "best audio system in a notebook," according to Apple, with upgrades to the headphone jack and the speaker system.
The 3.5mm headphone jack now offers support for high-impedance headphones. High-end headphone options that are high-impedance models from companies like Sennheiser and Beyerdynamic will offer better sound quality on the MacBook Pro models, a boon for professionals who want to use the MacBook Pro with studio quality headphones.
The 14 and 16-inch MacBook Pro models also include an upgraded high-fidelity six-speaker sound system with force-cancelling woofers and wide stereo sound, along with a studio-quality three-microphone array with a high signal-to-noise ratio and directional beamforming.

Look at the rest of the ports ....

Following years of complaints about a lack of ports, both sizes of the new MacBook Pro feature several ports that Apple had removed in 2016, including an HDMI port, SD card slot, and MagSafe. Both models also have three Thunderbolt 4 ports — two on the left side of the machine and one on the right — and a 3.5mm headphone jack.

... and what they can support:

These ports allow the new MacBook Pro models to support up to two external displays at up to 6K resolution when configured with the M1 Pro chip, and up to four external displays at up to 6K resolution when configured with the M1 Max chip. Apple's tech specs confirm the HDMI port is HDMI 2.0 instead of HDMI 2.1 to the disappointment of some users.

2021 - 2022 Energy Crisis: China, Asia, India

Updates

October 24, 2021: winter and natural gas wrap for the day. One day later, right on schedule: CNBC talks about a "warmer" winter.

October 19, 2021: America, specifically the US.

Original Post

Energy crisis: everything leads back to coal, a subject no one really wants to discuss. Everyone knows that what's going on in coal right now suggests huge policy failures over the past decade. There are currently three energy crises and each has its own unique beginning.

The three energy crises:

energy crisis in China, specifically, more broadly, Asia, to include India: coal
energy crisis in the EU and the UK: renewable energy
energy crisis in the US: political

2021 - 2022 Energy Crisis: North America, Specifically The US

The 2021 - 2022 US energy crisis is all about the price of gasoline and electricity.

Poster child:

gasoline:
ISO NE:

Updates

October 19, 2021: this is something I had not seen before.

ISO NE:

electricity early morning running over $50 / MWh
had spiked to $75 earlier this morning
but renewables was providing huge amount of electricity: 16%; at same time --

natural gas: relatively low, at 66%
nuclear: even less than renewables, at 13%

so, even when renewables provide a significant amount of electricity, rates still spike

Original Post

The three energy crises:

energy crisis in China, specifically, more broadly, Asia, to include India: coal
energy crisis in the EU and the UK: renewable energy
energy crisis in the US: political

2021 - 2022 Energy Crisis: EU, UK

Updates

October 19, 2021:

Original Post

The three energy crises:

energy crisis in China, specifically, more broadly, Asia, to include India: coal
energy crisis in the EU and the UK: renewable energy
energy crisis in the US: political

The Enerplus WM Polar Wells

Yesterday, October 18, 2021, Enerplus reported completion of two DUCs:

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

26417, 1,659, Enerplus, WM Polar 157-101-25A-36-4B, Otter oil field;
26415 1,551, Enerplus, WM Polar 157-101-25A-36-2B, Otter oil field;

Here are the Wm Polar wells:

37235, conf, Enerplus, WM Polar 157-101-24C-13-7B, Otter,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	13870	8738
7-2021	7531	2275

37234, conf, Enerplus, WM Polar 157-101-24D-13-5B, Otter,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	15211	9520
7-2021	6265	3716

37233, drl/NC, Enerplus, WM Polar 157-101-24D-13-3B, Otter,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2021	25	12098	12155	57057	10708	7348	3360
BAKKEN	7-2021	16	17556	17267	91503	20363	16073	4290

26415 1,551, WM Polar 157-101-25A-36-2B, Otter,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2021	26	27393	27430	74902	25305	17364	7941
BAKKEN	7-2021	18	19866	19539	90525	18306	14449	3857

26417, 1,659, Enerplus, WM Polar 157-101-25A-36-4B, Otter,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2021	24	15456	15507	53723	13489	9256	4233
BAKKEN	7-2021	23	17818	17525	93302	13756	10858	2898

26824, conf, Enerplus, WM Polar 157-101-25B-36-6B, Otter,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	9357	5889
7-2021	15538	10191

Carbon Cycle Modeling -- Tom V. Segalstad -- University of Oslo -- October 19, 2021

Published in 2009, I believe.

At this site, click on the "down arrow" to the right of "download full-text PDF" and then click on "read full-text."

From the reader who sent me this link and the paper:

I have attached a paper on the carbon cycle---how long CO2 stays in our atmosphere and where it goes.
It is great information on the dogma of climate change. If electric propulsion is to replace internal combustion propulsion, the cost of “clean” energy must be competitive with “dirty” energy. We both know it is not even close including heavy subsidies. That is why the cost of carbon based energy will be manipulated upward. Europe is starting to figure out the real costs in alternatives and is rapidly changing their direction.
The loss of ethane et al when slowing down the use of hydrocarbon fuels has yet to be felt financially and actually in shortages of everything we use.
Most of our “stuff” comes from the well. I hope more people realize the whole thing is a bunch of crap. The political motivation is varied between power and money, who cares, it’s still all crap. They think stopping pipelines will somehow limit the use of oil. Let’s see how that works.

Ironically CNBC is now reporting on the "return" to coal due to the global energy crisis.

Steve Jobs -- Ten Years On -- October 19, 2021

Wiki. February 24, 1955 -- October 5, 2011.

Fast Company.

Wired.

The Verge.

Wallpaper*.

A huge thank you to a reader for reminding me.

"Let's Go, Bakken!" -- October 19, 2021

Taxes, the government's fiscal year ended September, 2021

remember: this was still highly impacted by Covid economy
corporate taxes

all-time high
up 71% y/y
lower rates (Trump's tax reduction), more revenue

1.63% of GDP
record quarterly profits

personal income tax: $2.05 trillion -- another all-time record
total federal tax revenue
all-time $4 trilion highest share of GDP paid in almost 20 years
for those folks worried about the $3.5 trillion social-build-back-Biden bill, that $3.5 trillion is spread out over ten years, and much of it won't be spent, anyway

Housing starts:

a negative 1.6% vs a negative 0.3% estimated (yawn) month/month

Earnings:

3Q21

adjusted EPS: $2.60 vs $2.35
revenue: $23.34 billion vs $23.72 billion

for the year, Covid sales outlook (estimate): $2.5 billion
full-year guidance:

EPS: $9.77 - $9.82 vs previous estimates of $9.60 to $9.70 per share
sales estimates for the year, estimate raised $94.1 billion to $94.6 billion, up from $93.8 billion to $94.6 billion

Ten-year treasury: 1.602%.

Bitcoin: goes over $62,000.

WTI: $83.34.

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Let's Go, Bakken

Proposed natural gas pipeline: from Williston to Grand Forks; link here;

300 miles
to bring natural gas to unserved and under-served communities along US Highway 2
at $2 million / mile = $600 million, just the pipeline, doesn't include pumping stations, etc.
legislature asked to commit $100 million in seed money
experts:

$800 million to $1.2 billion
could receive upwards of $1 billion from American Recovery Plan Act, the $1.9 trillion economic stimulus bill signed into law by Resident Biden, March 11, 2021

Active rigs:

$83.34	10/19/2021	10/19/2020	10/19/2019	10/19/2018	10/19/2017
Active Rigs	23	15	61	71	56

Two wells coming off confidential list: Tuesday, October 19, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 238 for the year:

37987, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-4A-9-1H, Little Knife, update here, the Zabolotny wells are tracked here.
36768, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10, Capa,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	11237	11355
7-2021	14290	9173
6-2021	5054	9661
5-2021	20062	37150
4-2021	4516	6796

RBN Energy: navigating today's energy markets while preparing for a lower-carbon future.

For all who thought an energy transition was going to be orderly, economic, or rational, the chaos of 2021 energy markets is a wake-up call. It’s not that the shift from fossil fuels to renewables is causing most of the market turmoil, but it is certainly magnifying the effects of a host of energy market glitches that, together with the mechanics of the transition, are wreaking havoc on the global economy.

Which underscores the challenge of this generation: We must live, work, and produce hydrocarbons the way the world functions today, while at the same time preparing for — and investing in — a much-lower-carbon future.

A future that a lot of folks believe means net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and no hydrocarbons. That challenge is the underlying theme for RBN’s Fall 2021 School of Energy, to be held November 9-10. Not only have we restructured our agenda to include a half day covering the impact of hydrogen, CO₂ sequestration, and renewable diesel, we’ve reworked and updated our core hydrocarbons market curriculum to examine how crude oil, natural gas, and NGL markets will evolve to accommodate what lies ahead. In today’s RBN blog — a blatant advertorial — we’ll consider these issues and highlight how our upcoming School of Energy integrates existing market dynamics with prospects for the energy transition.

Apple -- The Revolution -- The Fifth-Generation MacBook Pro -- October 19, 2021

Apple 101

Unified memory: link here.

Updates

October 19, 2021: look at all the ports.

MagSafe 3; Thunderbolt 4 (3); headphone jack (much expanded capability); SDXC (the camera SanDisk slot); HDMI.

Later, 3:00 a.m. CT:

MacBook Pro line-up, the big picture:

two choices: 14" or 16"
two choices: M1 Pro or M1 Max
starting at: $2,000 or $3,500

MacBook Pro line-up: link here;

six basic models, prices will vary from those shown based on unified memory specs:

14" with M1 Pro chip; 512 GB SSD storage; $1,999.00
14" with M1 Pro chip; 1 TB SSD storage; $2,499; $40 extra per month for twelve months
14" with M1 Max chip; 1 TB SSD storage; $3,299;
16" with M1 Pro chip; 512 GB SSD storage; $2,499 -- perhaps best buy
16" with M1 Pro chip; 1 TB SSD storage; $2,699
16" with M1 Max chip; 1 TB SSD storage; $3,499

Joanna Stern at The Wall Street Journal

first review, October 18, 2021, 5:42 p.m. ET;

MacRumors

first review, October 18, 2021, 6:27 p.m. PDT

AAPL shares:

up 1.18% on the day of the announcement, October 18, 2021
opened at $143.60; dropped to $143.24 just after the opening
just prior to the event: $144.98
spiked to 145.83 eighteen minutes after the presentation began
near the close, hit $146.73
pre-market trading trading, 4:06 a.m. EDT, October 19, 2021: up another 0.3%

Unified memory: what is it and how does it work? Link here.
most frustrating: over at MacRumors "all" the comments pertain to design, superficial appearances; not much mention made of all the ports, new headphone jack; and absolutely nothing about the chip and unified memory revolution;

I don't think folks get it -- how huge this revolution was; it's amazing on what folks focus

Original Post

Apple: everyone suggests each MacBook iteration is simply evolution. Not this time: truly epic revolution. First definition of revolution: a forcible overthrow of a government or social order, in favor of a new system. "New" does not necessarily mean "something not seen before. A revolution could take us back to something we've experienced before. And that's exactly what Apple did with regard to the new MacBook Pro, either two models or four new models depending on perspective. But there was another Apple revolution: the chips.

Normally, shares of AAPL fall during / immediately after the presentation. Not this time. AAPL shares gained significantly, perhaps not in absolute dollar value / percent but in trending / direction.
Less than six hours after the event, delivery times for these new, expensive computers targeted for "pro" users, extended from one week to two to four weeks. And there is talk that folks who delay even a week or so will not be able to get a new MacBook Pro before Christmas.
Supply problem or demand problem?
I've only had one MacBook Pro over the years. They were introduced in 2006. I probably had mine for less than two years before I switched to the MacBook Air. I have absolutely no need for the MacBook Pro simply because I'm not a gamer. They are way too expensive, trending toward $2500 when a sub-$1000-MacBook Air more than meets my needs.
Supply problem or demand problem? A demand problem. I'm seriously thinking of getting a MacBook Pro. Seriously. That's how epic the revolution is. Tim Cook wasn't targeting the new MacBook Pro to the Apple masses. The target: the Apple "pro." If you don't believe me, check out their marketing tagline.
But something happened on the way to the forum. All those folks like me who didn't want the "Pro" are taking a second look now that Tim has literally fixed everything Apple users complained about when the fourth-generation MacBook Pro was introduced in October, 2016.

The prices for the new MacBook Pro are in line with previous model-years.

Hey, by the way, what's different this time, 2021 vs 2016? People are really, really flush with cash. My favorite graph; I'm still waiting for the September, 2021, data to be released.

Commentary -- Nothing About The Bakken -- October 19, 2021

Normally, shares of AAPL fall during / immediately after the presentation. Not this time. AAPL shares gained significantly, perhaps not in absolute dollar value / percent but in trending / direction.
Less than six hours after the event, delivery times for these new, expensive computers targeted for "pro" users, extended from one week to two to four weeks. And there is talk that folks who delay even a week or so will not be able to get a new MacBook Pro before Christmas.
Supply problem or demand problem?
I've only had one MacBook Pro over the years. They were introduced in 2006. I probably had mine for less than two years before I switched to the MacBook Air. I have absolutely no need for the MacBook Pro simply because I'm not a gamer. They are way too expensive, trending toward $2500 when a sub-$1000-MacBook Air more than meets my needs.
Supply problem or demand problem? A demand problem. I'm seriously thinking of getting a MacBook Pro. Seriously. That's how epic the revolution is. Tim Cook wasn't targeting the new MacBook Pro to the Apple masses. The target: the Apple "pro." If you don't believe me, check out their marketing tagline.
But something happened on the way to the forum. All those folks like me who didn't want the "Pro" are taking a second look now that Tim has literally fixed everything Apple users complained about when the fourth-generation MacBook Pro was introduced in October, 2016.

The prices for the new MacBook Pro are in line with previous model-years.
Hey, by the way, what's different this time, 2021 vs 2016? People are really, really flush with cash. My favorite graph; I'm still waiting for the September, 2021, data to be released.

The three energy crises:

energy crisis in China, specifically, more broadly, Asia, to include India: coal
energy crisis in the EU and the UK: renewable energy
energy crisis in the US: political

China/coal: coal prices are going parabolic in China, with futures climbing 110% since September 1, 2021, to almost $300/tonne. Coal for prompt delivery in the physical market is much higher. To put it in context, Newcastle coal trades at $230/tonne. Link here.

The rally is so spectacular that the thermal coal prices in China are nearing the price of oil. Meaasured in boe, Chinese coal futures are at $77/bbl, compared to WTI-Brent at $82-$85/bbl.

And then we have this idiot (name redacted): "China needs to build more wind turbines so they don't have to burn so much coal." Perhaps he/she was being sarcastically cynical or cynically sarcastic.

Winter: because WTI / Brent failed to move significantly higher on Monday, there was a collective sigh of relief that "we" are through the worse.

There is a feeling that we have successfully managed to get through this crisis and things will soon be back to normal.

Helllooooo.

Winter started early in China this year, and it looks like it's colder than usual in London, also.

This is mid-October. In the northern hemisphere is doesn't start getting cold until after Halloween. It doesn't start getting really cold until December. But folks seem to forget that frigid temperatures aren't seen until late January and all of February. We are hardly at the beginning of the heating season. It's almost predictable. As usual we will have some warming weather over the next few weeks which will further reinforce that "we've" somehow managed to muddle through the crisis, but if December doesn't bring "us" all back to reality, January and February certainly will.

China / winter: northern China is seeing an early start to the winter heating season due to tfallign temperatures. This will boost demand, yada, yada, yada, sooner than expected...link here and direct to Platts here.

Gasoline prices in the US: I have no idea what to say about this. Resident Biden has clearly stated -- if one reads the twitter feeds -- that he wants to do to the oil and gas sector what Hillary did to the coal industry. "Everyone" seems to suggest that his administration has begun to panic thinking gasoline could hit $5 / gallon as an average for regular gasoline. My hunch: there are many in his administration who do not see any problem with $5-gasoline. Two things: from their perspective, $5-gasoline is very manageable from a macro-economic point of view; and, second, to cut to the chase, the boiling frog fable.

Although Biden has said he has reached out to OPEC to increase production; there is absolutely no evidence that he has done so. When asked about that, the press secretary reads the same "white-paper reply" that she has read twelve times. That meeting Resident Biden had with US Big Oil? If anyone has the transcripts of his opening and closing remarks, I would like to see the links. Who even attended? I don't recall CNBC even reporting on this "summit."

Copper: the commodity no one seems to be talking about. From Bloomberg a few days ago, global copper inventories are dropping to "critical levels."

From yesterday, "let me make sure everybody understands the copper situation: spot minus three months forward spread at LME now in panic mode as we run out of inventory... link here. LME? London Metal Exchange.

Covid: I wasn't going to write about this but then I was sent, from a reader, a very, very good scientific paper on the failure of "the vaccine." I can't disagree. Vaccinated populations seem to be doing no better than unvaccinated populations. Except older vaccinated people don't get as sick or die as often as older unvaccinated people, unless one has smoldering multiple myeloma and Parkinson's. We've talked about this before. The problem: this is no longer about science. That train left the station when Governor Cuomo -- remember him? -- said he would not let one person die of Covid under his watch. I don't think I'm paraphrasing that. I'm pretty sure he actually said that even as he returned those with Covid back to their nursing homes.

Optics: by the way, the optics of a young, virile, African-American, US Army soldier, fully vaccinated, dying of Covid seriously impacted the administration's admonishment for everyone to get vaccinated. After all, if a young, virile, African-American, US Army soldier, fully vaccinated dies of Covid why would I want to be vaccinated with a dangerous drug that isn't even a vaccine. It was interesting to watch CNBC talking heads squirm yesterday morning when the death was announced. Has Bill Maher addressed this yet?

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Tuesday, October 19, 2021