"Let's Go, Bakken!" -- October 19, 2021

Taxes, the government's fiscal year ended September, 2021

• remember: this was still highly impacted by Covid economy
• corporate taxes
• all-time high
• up 71% y/y
• lower rates (Trump's tax reduction), more revenue
• 1.63% of GDP
• record quarterly profits
  
• personal income tax: $2.05 trillion -- another all-time record
  
• total federal tax revenue
  
• all-time $4 trilion highest share of GDP paid in almost 20 years
• for those folks worried about the $3.5 trillion social-build-back-Biden bill, that $3.5 trillion is spread out over ten years, and much of it won't be spent, anyway
  

Housing starts:

• a negative 1.6% vs a negative 0.3% estimated (yawn) month/month
  

Earnings:

• JNJ
• 3Q21
• adjusted EPS: $2.60 vs $2.35
• revenue: $23.34 billion vs $23.72 billion
• for the year, Covid sales outlook (estimate): $2.5 billion
• full-year guidance:
• EPS: $9.77 - $9.82 vs previous estimates of $9.60 to $9.70 per share
• sales estimates for the year, estimate raised $94.1 billion to $94.6 billion, up from $93.8 billion to $94.6 billion

Ten-year treasury: 1.602%.

Bitcoin: goes over $62,000.

WTI: $83.34.

***************************
Let's Go, Bakken

Proposed natural gas pipeline: from Williston to Grand Forks; link here;

• 300 miles
• to bring natural gas to unserved and under-served communities along US Highway 2
• at $2 million / mile = $600 million, just the pipeline, doesn't include pumping stations, etc.
  
• legislature asked to commit $100 million in seed money
• experts:
• $800 million to $1.2 billion
• could receive upwards of $1 billion from American Recovery Plan Act, the $1.9 trillion economic stimulus bill signed into law by Resident Biden, March 11, 2021

Active rigs:

$83.34	10/19/2021	10/19/2020	10/19/2019	10/19/2018	10/19/2017
Active Rigs	23	15	61	71	56

Two wells coming off confidential list: Tuesday, October 19, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 238 for the year:

• 37987, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-4A-9-1H, Little Knife, update here, the Zabolotny wells are tracked here.
• 36768, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10, Capa,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	11237	11355
7-2021	14290	9173
6-2021	5054	9661
5-2021	20062	37150
4-2021	4516	6796

RBN Energy: navigating today's energy markets while preparing for a lower-carbon future.

For all who thought an energy transition was going to be orderly, economic, or rational, the chaos of 2021 energy markets is a wake-up call. It’s not that the shift from fossil fuels to renewables is causing most of the market turmoil, but it is certainly magnifying the effects of a host of energy market glitches that, together with the mechanics of the transition, are wreaking havoc on the global economy. 

Which underscores the challenge of this generation: We must live, work, and produce hydrocarbons the way the world functions today, while at the same time preparing for — and investing in — a much-lower-carbon future. 

A future that a lot of folks believe means net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and no hydrocarbons. That challenge is the underlying theme for RBN’s Fall 2021 School of Energy, to be held November 9-10. Not only have we restructured our agenda to include a half day covering the impact of hydrogen, CO₂ sequestration, and renewable diesel, we’ve reworked and updated our core hydrocarbons market curriculum to examine how crude oil, natural gas, and NGL markets will evolve to accommodate what lies ahead. In today’s RBN blog — a blatant advertorial — we’ll consider these issues and highlight how our upcoming School of Energy integrates existing market dynamics with prospects for the energy transition.