Notes From All Over -- Early Evening Edition -- May 9, 2021

Firster things firster: Colonial Pipeline says some small lines are back online but all mainlines, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are still offline -- 6:00 p.m. CT, Sunday evening, May 9, 2021.

First: the drought. Current conditions are not something new. Forty-five years ago, 1976, there was a severe drought in northern California. Folks were encouraged to take communal showers. Link here. I remember it well. I lived in southern California, 1973 - 1977, and then, northern California, 1977 - 1980.

Second: severe drought in western North Dakota. Williston Band Day hit with rain. Virgil Syverson. Earlier note. See also 2nd Armored Division. 

I see the Band Day venue changed from the days when I was in "band." Instead of going down Main Street, north to south, the bands now have a much wider venue, "Million Dollar Way" starting at 18th Street & University Avenue, south on "highway 2&85,", and ending at Harmon Park, where the amphitheater named in his honor, is sited. I took piano lessons from his wife, Margaret Syverson.

Focus On Fracking -- Posted -- May 9, 2021

This is quite a lede: record jump in crude oil exports leads to largest inventory draw since January, 2021, with twelve million barrels of crude oil unaccounted for. 

Link here.  

It always takes me awhile to go through the weekly update.

Notes From All Over -- The Mid-Day Edition -- May 9, 2021

So much interesting news today.

First: the Colonial Pipeline. All of a sudden, and just like that, pipelines are important and a national security issue. Apparently the pipeline is still not flowing and re-starting it may not be as easy as it sounds. 

Time to keep your POVs filled with gasoline. At least half-full at all time; preferably three-quarters filled; and, if you really want to contribute to the panic-induced shortage, preferably seven-eighths filled.

GasBuddy, Manhattan: $3.00 / gallon today. In the big scheme of things, this could be Biden's first big challenge. Here we have a fossil fuel story and a potential gasoline shortage hitting NYC just as it re-opens. And then, of  course, there is Washington, DC, and all those Algore, gas-guzzling, black SUVs. If I were the Colonial Pipeline operator, I would assemble the corporate lawyers and review the Democrat mantra: never let a crisis go to waste.

Second: #16059.

Third: Syria is having a really, really bad day. Fire breaks out at Syria's biggest refinery. Explosion on an empty oil tanker off the coast of Syria's Baniyas. Didn't we just talk about the Baniyas?

Fourth: it's being reported by right-leaning tabloids that the US faces a lack of icebreakers in the Arctic. It's a non-story. The US ceded the Arctic to China, Russia, Denmark, Canada, and Lichtenstein, years ago. The person least concerned about the shortage? Joe Biden. Having said that, it's rumored he's convening a meeting with the executives of the Ferrara corporation to solve this problem.

Fifth: more land than necessary for the US to go full Monty (100% solar / wind). Okay. Link here. Warms the cockles of my heart. I noted "they" did not include the Dakotas! I assume they are saving the Dakotas for "the national American bison and Smuckers preserve."

Sixth: coal is dead. Long live coal!

Seventh: I first started writing about this on April 23, 2021, ten days after the announcement there were concerns about the safety of the vaccine and the day the vaccine was returned to market. From The WSJ today.

Seventh-a: I've posted how "they" could solve this "hesitancy" problem overnight but I'm not going to belabor the issue. Time to move on. 

Eighth: let's check today's CDC data. The vaccine is now recommended for everyone over the age of sixteen. Supply exceeds demand. Government still makes it difficult. Question: why is a photo ID required? Is the government really concerned that folks are going to sneak in for a third and fourth and fifth dose? Note sixth column:

		Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities	Change from day before	Vaccinations given	Change from day before	Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered
Sunday	May 9, 2021	329,843,825	3,770	259,716,989	2,369,784	78.74%
Sunday	May 2, 2021	312,509,575	1,370	245,591,469	2,127,998	78.59%
Sunday	April 25, 2021	290,692,005	6,350	228,661,408	3,020,948	78.66%
Sunday	March 28, 2021	180,646,465	2,340	143,462,691	3,281,956	79.42%
Sunday	March 21, 2021	156,734,555	0	124,481,412	3,039,915	79.42%
Sunday	March 14, 2021	135,847,835	1,170	107,060,274	1,356,773	78.81%
Sunday	March 7, 2021	116,363,405	8,000	90,351,750	2,439,427	77.65%
Sunday	February 28, 2021	96,402,490	200	75,236,003	2,429,823	78.04%
Sunday	February 21, 2021	75,204,965	-3,923,530	63,090,634	1,801,134	83.89%

A Decade-Old Petro-Hunt Well In The Charlson Is Back On Confidential -- Was Trending Toward 1.75 million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- May 9, 2021

***************************
The Disclaimer

Note: in a long note like this there will be typographical and content errors. Facts and opinions will be interspersed; it is difficult to tell facts from opinions. I often see things that don't exist. I often get ahead of my headlights. If this is important to you go to the source. I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. This is really exciting. For newbies, this page is chock full of amazing Bakken information, amazing information that can only be found on this blog. That's a great example of "fact" vs "opinion." LOL. The post is a bit disjointed because it was updated "on the fly" as new information was ascertained. But in the big scheme of things, the note still flows rather nicely.

***************************
The Note

The Bakken never fails to amaze me. I've said that many times on the blog. 

But today, perhaps, is one of those most amazing days. 

In fact, I've been waiting for this day for quite some time. It has happened before, but infrequently, but this might be the best example for newbies. 

When I first started blogging about the Bakken, I mentioned that each well will go through many phases: initial drilling (with or without fracking); pump installation; re-works; neighboring fracks; small re-fracks; major re-fracks; re-entry targeting new formations; and so on. 

Well, here we have it. This well is still on confidential so we won't know what Petro-Hunt is doing with this well until it comes off the confidential list. The only thing we might know for sure: it was not re-fracked based on FracFocus data. 

If it was not re-fracked, and the two neighboring recently fracked wells were targeting the middle Bakken it's going to be fascinating to see the new production data: was there a halo effect?

Note that it was a Three Forks well; this would make it one of the earliest Three Forks in the Bakken and although I can't say for sure, it may not have been fracked when originally drilled.

More: there are two newer wells sited in this same section that drain the same general area but do not exactly parallel this older well. The new wells have these file numbers: #37151, #37152. They are also on confidential list but report a small amount of production suggesting they were fracked recently. 

• 37151: Bakken, 52 stages; 432,725 bbls; 10.7 million lbs proppant; fracked 1/21/21 - 3.2/21; note how long this frack took; 18.2 million gallons of water; 92% water by mass;
  
• 37152: Bakken, 51 stages; 428,80 bbls; 10.5 million lbs proppant; fracked 1/21/21 - 2/24/21; note how long this frack took; 18.0 million gallons of water; 92.1% water by mass;
  

The well:

• 16059, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson, full production data here; this well was first drilled back in October, 2006; had runs of 3,000 to 4,000 bbls/month through 11/19, when runs jumped to 5,000 to 6,000 bbls/month (memo to self: re-read Hubbert's Theory); now it's back on the confidential list; FracFocus has no data to suggest this well was fracked at the time #37151/#37152 were fracked;
  

Because the well is on the confidential list we don't have the total production to date, but if I did the "math" correctly, this very short 640-acre-spaced well has had 1.7 million bbls of oil sold. Generally, the amount of oil sold is about the same as the amount of oil produced.

So, when it comes off the confidential list we will know. 

By the way, it's unusual for neighboring, producing wells not to be taken off line when newer, neighboring wells are fracked. If that is the case this time -- that #16059 was not taken off line while the two neighboring wells were fracked it is because:

• the new wells were middle Bakken wells? and,
• the old well (#16059) was a Three Forks well?

But we don't know yet whether this well was taken off line; it's on the confidential list, but it appears it was taken off line -- no runs were reported after 11/20 and runs are not confidential. 

Wow, wow, wow, stop the presses -- this was noted -- from the blog -- what a great blog -- this is worth the cost of the subscription. From an earlier post:

16059, 729, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson field, t10/06; cum 1.776024 million bbls 4/20; still producing 6,000 bbls/month, 11/19; update at this post; off line 5/20; remains off line 6/20; two days in 7/20; to be lengthened; confidential noted 11/20; still confidential but now producing again after being lengthened; 

• 16059, conf after being lengthened 7/29, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson field, t10/06; cum 1.78233 million bbls 11/20; still producing 6,000 bbls/month, 11/19; update at this post; off line 5/20; remains off line 6/20; two days in 7/20; to be lengthened; confidential noted 11/20; note the gap between 7/20 and 11/20. Target: upper Three Forks just below the lower Bakken black shale. Permit deapth, ~ 15,155' MD (~ 4,400' lateral); new bottom hole, 60' FNL 510' FWL; original bottom hole permitted  700' FNL 700' FWL; about 670' longer:

The graphic:

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- May 9, 2021

The wells:

• 36600, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-11, Manitou, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 70K 3/21; first production, 11/20; t--; cum 70K 3/21;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2021	9100	17862
2-2021	9421	12934
1-2021	8870	13284
12-2020	25058	51488
11-2020	14367	29868

• 37095, conf, MRO, Wiest 24-33H, 36123, conf, Slawson, Stallion 7-1-12H, Bailey, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 100K 3/21;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2021	14580	7099
2-2021	14430	6760
1-2021	19733	9042
12-2020	22344	9157
11-2020	26583	10852

• 16059, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson, full production data here; this well first drilled back in October, 2006; had runs of 3,000 to 4,000 bbls/month through 11/19, when runs jumped to 5,000 to 6,000 bbls/month (memo to self: re-read Hubbert's Theory); now it's back on the confidential list; 
• 36122, conf, Slawson, Stallion 5-1-12TFH, Big Bend, no production data, 
• 36604, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-7, Manitou, first production 11/20; t--; cum 75K 3/21;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2021	13796	19747
2-2021	11598	22316
1-2021	7133	9466
12-2020	21978	24457
11-2020	23858	39874

• 36121, conf, Slawson, Zephyr Federal 3-6H, Big Bend, no production data, 
• 7634, conf, BR, Cherry Pie 1R TFH ULW, Haystack Butte, no production data, 
• 37540, conf, BR, Faye 3B MBH, Elidah, no production data, 
• 36603, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-11, Manitou, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 125K 3/21;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2021	21624	34180
2-2021	9962	13624
1-2021	25250	33864
12-2020	35000	47065
11-2020	34288	34483

• 37633, conf, BR, Cherry Blossom 1S MBH, Haystack Butte, no production data, 
• 36920, conf, MRO, Adonijah USA 44-5TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, first production 11/20; t--; cum 220K 3/21;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2021	37232	52703
2-2021	31619	51547
1-2021	43882	60860
12-2020	66320	82551
11-2020	59583	61263

• 37632, drl/NC, BR, Cherry Juice 1T TFH, Haystack Butte, no production data, 
• 37631, drl/NC, BR, Cherry Danish 1U MBH, Haystack Butte, no production data, 
• 37093, conf, MRO, Ruggles 14-33H, Bailey, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 98K 3/20;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	16586	16581	51793	9843	7863	781
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	17825	17782	54763	10259	8233	757
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	23520	23558	63257	12666	9800	1224
BAKKEN	12-2020	29	24434	24250	70645	12632	9333	1600
BAKKEN	11-2020	9	15588	15459	53262	7117	5275	779

• 36810, conf, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-17 1TFH, Stony Creek, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 98K 3/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	14315	46	17322	33534	31754	1665
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	13669	13086	16558	22018	21260	654
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	18404	16867	20590	22224	21889	220
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	26371	24045	28577	25235	24165	608
BAKKEN	11-2020	11	25637	23923	25501	22114	21730	384
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	100	100	0

 

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- May 9, 2021

Monday, May 17, 2021: 28 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 130 for the year:
36600, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-11,

Sunday, May 16, 2021: 27 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 129 for the year:
None.

Saturday, May 15, 2021: 27 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 129 for the year:
None.

Friday, May 14, 2021: 27 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 129 for the year:
37095, conf, MRO, Wiest 24-33H,
36123, conf, Slawson, Stallion 7-1-12H,

Thursday, May 13, 2021: 25 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 127 for the year:
16059, conf, Petro-Hut, USA 2D-3-1H,
36122, conf, Slawson, Stallion 5-1-12TFH,

Wednesday, May 12, 2021: 23 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 125 for the year:
36604, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-7,
36121, conf, Slawson, Zephyr Federal 3-6H,

Tuesday, May 11, 2021: 21 for the month, 45 for the quarter, 126 for the year:
37634, conf, BR, Cherry Pie 1R TFH ULW,
37540, conf, BR, Faye 3B MBH,
36603, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-11,

Monday, May 10, 2021: 18 for the month, 42 for the quarter, 123 for the year:
37633, conf, BR, Cherry Blossom 1S MBH,
36920, conf, MRO, Adonijah USA 44-5TFH-2B,

Sunday, May 9, 2021: 16 for the month, 40 for the quarter, 121 for the year:
37632, conf, BR, Cherry Juice 1T TFH,

Saturday, May 8, 2021: 15 for the month, 39 for the quarter, 120 for the year:
37631, conf, BR, Cherry Danish 1U MBH,
37093, conf, MRO, Ruggles 14-33H,
36810, conf, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-17 1TFH,

The Pandemic Lockdowns -- May 9, 2021

Without a doubt, the one year + break from touring has made a huge positive difference in music. 

Exhibit A: John Fogerty's Factory. Yes, at the age of 75, he reinvented himself.

Exhibit B: Miley Cyrus Backyard Sessions. Somewhere along the line she realized what she had.

On another note, this was so brilliant on so many levels:

Elon Musk -- May 9, 2021