The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 02/10/21

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Still On Confidential List, These Four Enerplus "Precipitation Pad" Wells Are Starting To Report "Runs" -- February 10, 2021

The Enerplus "precipitation pad" is tracked here.

Last time we checked, several wells on this pad were on the confidential list and no production date posted. We're starting to see some production (technically, "runs") data.

The wells of interest:

35800, drl/NC-->conf, Enerplus, Frost 149-93-07A-12H-TF-LL, 33-025-03630, Mandaree, first production, 10/20; 8K; fracked 10/3/20 - 10/14/20; 7.8 million gallons of water; 82.4% water by mass;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	30583	37114
11-2020	30668	30361
10-2020	7750	2997

35801, rig on site (11/19)-->drl/NC-->conf, Enerplus, Hail 149-93-07A-12H, 33-025-03631, Mandaree, first production, 10/20; 14K; fracked 10/3/20 - 10/14/20; 8.1 million gallons of water; 84.8% water by mass;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	25487	27786
11-2020	30390	26538
10-2020	13811	10405

35802, drl/NC-->conf, Enerplus, Sleet 149-93-07A-12H, 33-025-03632, Mandaree, first production, 10/20; 13K; fracked 10/3/20 - 10/14/20; 8 million gallons of water; 84.5% water by mass;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	30998	33794
11-2020	35013	30575
10-2020	13323	10038

35803, drl/NC-->conf, Enerplus, Blizzard 149-93-07A-12H-TF, 33-025-03633, Mandaree, first production, 13K 10/20; fracked 10/3/20 - 10/14/20; 7.9 million gallons of water; 83.4% water by mass;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	27245	29702
11-2020	26644	23267
10-2020	13373	10074

The Enerplus Monarch Well Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Cumulative Crude Oil -- February 10, 2021

The well:

27591, 2,079, Enerplus, Monarch 152-94-32D-29H, Antelope, a huge well, 44 stages; 8.9 million lbs; about 200,000 lbs/stage; NGL unit to reduce flaring on-site; large volume deethanizer (stabilizer) on site; spud Feb 28, 2014; big rig moved on sit May 19, 2014; began lateral on May 29, 2014; TD June 12, 2014; total days, 29; total drilling hours 336 (14 days); TVD, 10,614 feet; lateral, 8,815 feet; trip gases as high as 3,400; t12/14; cum 513K 12/14;

The Enerplus Honor Well Has Been Returned To Production -- A Nice Well -- February 10, 2021

This Enerplus Patriot pad well was recently returned to production. The "Patriot Pad" is tracked here.

The well:

23541,1,545, Enerplus Resources, Honor 150-94-06B-18H TF, Spotted Horn, t6/14; cum 704K 12/20; off line 5/20; returned to production 9/20;

MRO Will Report Two Huge Wells In Reunion Bay; Fracks Unremarkable -- February 10, 2021

It appears all wells on the MRO P-R-S-4W pad have been fracked; two remain on the confidential list -- the MRO P-R-S-4W wells are tracked here.

The wells:

37395, conf, MRO, Wallentinson USA 44-8H, Reunion Bay, huge,
37403, conf, MRO, Standfest USA 42-8H, Reunion Bay, huge,

37395, 33-061-04684, fracked 8/27/20 - 9/10/20; 11.3 million gallons of water; 74.8% water by mass; produced brine water, 9.8% water by mass;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	47737	78477
11-2020	44448	56702
10-2020	50851	51105
9-2020	25838	29722

37403, 33-061-04685, fracked 8/27/20 - 9/14/20; 9.9 million gallons of water; 79.7% water by mass; produced brine water, 7.8% water by mass;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	30228	34745
11-2020	25173	30871
10-2020	59501	63257

Since We Last Checked, This Oasis Oyloe Well Has Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 10, 2021

The Oasis Oyloe wells are tracked here.

The well:

32616, 1,363, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 14-26 11B, North Tobacco Garden, t10/17; cum 513K 12/20;

Is this the most covered song ever?

Dwight Yoakem

A Re-Entered Petro-Hunt USA Well In Charlson -- Now Lengthened -- Still Confidential -- February 10, 2021

The well:

16059, conf after being lengthened 7/29, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson field, t10/06; cum 1.78233 million bbls 11/20; still producing 6,000 bbls/month, 11/19; update at this post; off line 5/20; remains off line 6/20; two days in 7/20; to be lengthened; confidential noted 11/20; note the gap between 7/20 and 11/20. Target: upper Three Forks just below the lower Bakken black shale. Permit deapth, ~ 15,155' MD (~ 4,400' lateral); new bottom hole, 60' FNL 510' FWL; original bottom hole permitted 700' FNL 700' FWL; about 670' longer:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	6309	7866
7-2020	174	0
4-2020	3722	3454
3-2020	6437	3014
2-2020	4875	0
1-2020	5270	0
12-2019	4832	0
11-2019	3813	0
10-2019	4759	0
9-2019	3584	0
8-2019	3350	0
7-2019	3847	0
6-2019	4147	0
5-2019	4432	0

This Daimler Truck Drives Itself -- Shelby -- Just Four Days Ago -- The New Freightliner Cascadia -- Portland, OR -- February 10, 2021

On the ocean, super-excited:

Where Do I Even Begin? -- February 10, 2021

Really?

Atmospheric CO2; Chinese Coal; And All That Soot -- February 10, 2021

January, 2021:

January, 2020:

*************************************
Could This Be The Problem?

China? From a reader:

The engineering marvel that is the recently opened Haoji rail line is, mysteriously, not getting much public attention.

At near $30 billion cost, this >1,000 mile long railway carries about 200 million tonnes per year of coal to Chinese power plants.

That is sufficient to fuel 60 massive 1,000 Megawatt coal plants.

Each. Year.

Several of these Inner Mongolian coal mines are amongst the biggest open pit mines in the world.

From wiki:

[The 1,127-mile railway] was built to facilitate coal transport from Inner Mongolia and Shanxi to China's southern provinces at up to 200 million tons a year.

The railway is also the first north-south railway in China that is dedicated to coal, and is built to bypass existing coal transport routes that go via coastal cities by ship.

The line will reduce transit time from 20 days by sea to just 3 days.

The line connects to existing railways at several points to share maintenance facilities. The design speed of the railway is 75 mph.

The line was approved in 2014 at a cost of US$27.2 billion, financed by China Railway and several large domestic coal mining companies. The railway was inaugurated on 28 September 2019.

Five New Permits; Thirty-Five Permits Renewed; No DUCs Reported As Completed -- February 10, 2021

Director's Cut: scheduled to be released on Friday, February 12, 20212.

Sunoco Products: raised its quarterly dividend to 45 cents. Was 43 cents.

Gasoline demand, link here:

Apple: led semiconductor buying last year (2020) --

Apple remained the top semiconductor chip buyer in 2020 with 12% of the overall market
Samsung was second with an 8% market share
Huawei spent 23% less on the year compared to the over 20% gains for Apple ans Samsung due to the increased U.S. trade restrictions. The company still came in third with a 4% share
Lenovo and Dell rounded out the top five with a 4% and 3.7% share, respectively.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$58.41	2/10/2021	02/10/2020	02/10/2019	02/10/2018	02/10/2017
Active Rigs	15	55	63	58	35

Five new permits, #38141 - #38145, inclusive (scout tickets not yet posted):

Operator: BR
Field: North Fork (McKenzie); Bear Den (McKenzie)
Comments:

BR has permits in North Fork, for four Ole wells in section 20-149-96, between 2267' FSL and 1938' - 2058' FEL;
BR has one permit for an Olebully well in Bear Den, but also in the same NWSE section 20-149-96 as the other four wells; the Olebully well will be 2267' FSl and 1938' FEL

Thirty-five permits renewed:

EOG (22): five Clarks Creek permits in McKenzie County; six Austin permits in Mountrail County; seven Ross permits in Mountrail County; three Liberty LR permits in Mounrail County; one Burke permit in Mountrail County;
Petro-Hunt (8): one Kelly, one Kade, one Macey, and one Jeffrey permit, all in Divide County; one Marlyn, one Laura, one Bob, and one Maria permit, all in Divide County
Petro-Hunt (3): two Jorgenson permits in Mountrail County; one Hurineneko permit in Billings County
Whiting (2): two Niemitalo permits in Mountrail County;

And again, another day with no DUCs reported as completed.

As Predicted: Pandemic-Adjusted, Most Viewed Super Bowl -- CBS Scores Record $545 Million In Revenue -- February 10, 2021

Link here.

ViacomCBS' CBS network generated a record $545 million in advertising spending during the NFL's Super Bowl LV this past Sunday, according to preliminary estimates from research firm Kantar.
The game included a record 57 minutes of commercial time, and a 30-second ad was sold for an estimated average cost of $5.6 million, Kantar said Wednesday.
The high price and increase in commercial time helped CBS score record revenue even as the game, which saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prevail over the Kansas City Chiefs, got the lowest TV ratings in 15 years.
Advertisers flock to the Super Bowl because it is one of the last remaining annual events that attract millions of Americans to their TVs at the same time.

Coal: Around The World -- February 10, 2021

Germany's failed green energy program rescued by natural gas and coal. Link here.

UK: coal power spikes amid cold snap, despite "greenest" year on record" for electricity in 2020; link here.

China: trade war with Australia resulting in steep premiums for imports amid a supply crunch. Link here.

New England: electricity demand -- hydro, 5%; coal, 5%; and, oil, 2%. When demand hits 7.5k MW, hydro from Canada is imported. Very expensive.

Scotland: best snow in years for skiers!! Ski resorts closed due to Covid-19. Link here.

No Good Deed Goes Unpunished: Saudi Agrees To Lower Output; Prices Rise And Customers Buy From Russia, Others -- February 10, 2021

What's worse for Saudi Arabia?

selling oil for $50/bbl
selling no oil when it's trading at $60/bbl

LOL.

This is the headline: European interest in Saudi crude wanes.

Wanes?

The Europeans lose interest in Saudi crude oil.

Link here.

Four of Saudi Arabia's term crude customers in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean have opted to request no March-loading cargoes, while two other regional buyers have only asked for the minimum under their contractual obligations.

The waning interest from Europe follows state-controlled Saudi Aramco's decision to lift its official formula prices for March crude exports to northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by $1.30-1.40/bl compared with February. It could free up additional March-loading cargoes for Aramco's core customer base in Asia-Pacific.

Aramco has had to carry out a delicate balancing act between retaining its share of the sour crude market and meeting Riyadh's Opec+ production pledges. Early last month, Saudi oil minister Abdulaziz bin Salman surprised the market by announcing his country would voluntarily reduce its crude output by 1mn b/d under its official Opec+ quota of 9.12mn b/d in February and March. The move is likely to be reflected in Saudi crude exports.

Saudi exports to destinations west of Suez were already declining. January-loaded shipments to Europe and the Americas — including volumes discharged into Egyptian storage in Sidi Kerir, where many western buyers collect their crude — has reached 805,000 b/d so far. This accounts for just 13pc of last month's 6.12mn b/d of exports from Saudi crude terminals, excluding shipments from the Neutral Zone that Riyadh shares with neighbouring Kuwait, according to Argus tracking. An average 1.27mn b/d headed west of the Suez Canal last year, or around 19pc of total Saudi loadings.

CLR's Vardon Wells In Siverston Field Have Been Updated -- February 10, 2021

It appears CLR hs completed all its Vardon wells in Siverston oil field. The wells are tracked here and have been updated.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report Posted; Jet Fuel Delivered Still A Huge Concern For Airlines -- February 10, 2021

Link here.

Data points:

US crude oil in storage decreased by 6.6 million bbls;
US crude oil in storage now stands at 469.0 million bbls, about 2% above the already-fat five-year average, but that 2% figure is pretty low, in the big scheme of things;
refiners were operating at 83% of capacity; pretty much where it's been for quite some time;
distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million bbls; about 7% about the five-year average for this time of year;
jet fuel supplied was down 33.7% compared with the same four-week period last year; not a good sign for the airline industry

Jet fuel supplied is still the most concerning data point in this week's report After trending down to a relative low in the January 27, 2021, report (=-28.2%) but has since turned in the wrong direction and is now at -33.7%.

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Date of Report	Change
Week 0	3/7/2020	-12.80%
Week 1	3/14/2020	-12.60%
Week 2	3/21/2020	-8.90%
Week 3	3/28/2020	-16.40%
Week 4	4/4/2020	-0.22%
Week 5	4/11/2020	-39.70%
Week 6	4/18/2020	-53.60%
Week 7	4/24/2020	-61.60%
Week 8	5/1/2020	-66.60%
Week 9	5/8/2020	-68.50%
Week 10	5/15/2020	-67.90%
Week 11	May 22, 2020	-66.60%
Week 20	July 29, 2020	-42.10%
Week 21	August 5, 2020	-40.90%
Week 22	August 12, 2020	-45.80%
Week 23	August 19, 2020	-47.60%
Week 24	August 26, 2020	-45.70%
Week 29	September 30, 2020	-46.10%
Week 30	October 7, 2020	-47.50%
Week 31	October 15, 2020	-41.80%
Week 32	October 21, 2020	-45.90%
Week 33	October 28, 2020	-44.30%
Week 34	November 4, 2020	-44.60%
Week 35	November 12, 2020	-43.50%
Week 36	November 18, 2020	-39.80%
Week 37	November 25, 2020	-38.00%
Week 38	December 2, 2020	-36.20%
Week 29	December 9, 2020	-34.90%
Week 30	December 16, 2020	-36.20%
Week 31	December 23, 2020	-32.90%
Week 32	December 30, 2020	-31.80%
Week 33	January 6, 2021	-37.60%
Week 34	January 13, 2021	-30.00%
Week 35	January 22, 2021	-31.70%
Week 36	January 27, 2021	-28.20%
Week 37	February 3, 2021	-31.20%
Week 38	February 10, 2021	-33.70%

****************************
Is This Bobby Hill?

San Jose Democratic Mayor Finally "Woke" -- Lists The Top Three Problems; And, A Twofer -- February 10, 2021

Link here.

San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo acknowledges the Bay Area has an outward migration problem.
He’s just sick of the tech industry being blamed for it.
As Mayor of California’s third largest city, Liccardo has long touted the success stories of home grown companies like PayPal Holdings, Cisco Systems, and eBay. But when Hewlett Packard Enterprise, one of the city’s largest employers, announced it was moving its headquarters to Houston in December, and Oracle put its downtown San Jose tower up for sale last month, Liccardo found himself at the center of the “Silicon Valley exodus.”

And he is blunt in explaining the problem:

regulations
ESG
taxes

Wow, a twofer:

A Closer Look At CLR's Newest Vardon Well In Siverston -- February 10, 2021

The CLR Vardon wells are tracked here.

The well:

36732, F/A, CLR, Vardon 8-14H2, 33-053-09152, Siverston, first production, 8/20; t--; cum 100K 12/20; fracked 1/6/20 - 1/23/20; 10.5 million gallons of water; 89.3% water by mass; target: second bench target zone located between the Internal 1 and the Internal 2 shale.

From the well file, look how fast they drilled the lateral:

spud date: 9/21/19
TD date: 10/24/19
formations, TVD:

Mission Canyon: 9,289
Lodgepole: 9,868
Upper Bakken: 10,681,
Middle Bakken: 10,699
Lower Bakken: 10.743
Three Forks: 10,771
Internal 1: 10,815
Three Forks 2: 10,833
Internal 2: 10,868

relatively low gas shows throughout
vertical hole:

began drilling: 9/21/19; 2110 hours
logging services began: 9/24/19, 0020 hours
reached KOP: 9/25/19; 0615 hours; depth of 10,532 ' MD

curve:

started: 9/26/19; 0500 hrs
completed: 9/26/19; 2130 hrs

lateral:

started: 10/22/19, 0500; 13,872' MD
completed: 10/24/19, 0240; 21,856' MD

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	18445	18494	13022	38767	38007	512
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	16889	16837	14108	35824	34581	1116
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	16741	16724	16718	36361	35655	571
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	19063	19213	17874	35764	34829	809
BAKKEN	8-2020	22	28734	28491	18956	37160	32001	5159
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	1	0	0	1446	932	0	932

Wow, What An Incredible Wednesday; CLR Reports Another Huge Siverston Well -- February 10, 2021

Giovanni Staunovo: US implied oil demand of 20.183 million bopd is at the highest level since mid-March, 2020. Something tells me Biden has "jumped on the wrong horse, mid-stream."

Market: another big day.

CSCO: raised its dividend by a penny.

Bigly: pandemic-adjusted, LV was most-watched Super Bowl in history.

Digital numbers were up 65 percent this year, proving that TV viewing continues to migrate away from broadcast TV and to streaming and mobile outlets.

Nancy Green: link here.

Aunt Jemima’s founders bought Missouri-based Pearl Milling Co. in 1888, then began a search for a novel product all Americans would eat, according to the book “Aunt Jemima, Uncle Ben and Rastus,” by Marilyn Kern-Foxworth. They settled on pancakes, and perfected their mix in 1889. The brand name was inspired by a popular song, “Old Aunt Jemima,” typically performed in minstrel shows by a white man in blackface.

The brand’s creators hired a former enslaved woman, Nancy Green, to be its spokeswoman. She made her debut as Aunt Jemima at the Chicago World’s Columbian Exposition of 1893, singing, telling stories and making pancakes outside a booth resembling a giant flour barrel, according to the book “Black Hunger” by Doris Witt. PepsiCo acquired the business when it bought Quaker Oats in 2001.

Very, very clever. By not using Nancy Green's name they don't have to worry about paying royalties to the Nancy Green heirs. PepsiCo must have learned from the Henrietta Lacks story of some years ago.

Pearl Milling syrup or PMS for short.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$58.35	2/10/2021	02/10/2020	02/10/2019	02/10/2018	02/10/2017
Active Rigs	15	55	63	58	35

Wednesday, February 10, 2021: 6 for the month, 39 for the quarter, 39 for the year.

36732, F/A, CLR, Vardon 8-14H2, 33-053-09152, Siverston, first production, 8/20; t--; cum 100K 12/20;

RBN Energy: environmental, social, and governance issues take center stage in the energy industry.

The run-up in crude oil prices the past couple of months has supported a rise in energy stock prices — since early November, the S&P 500 Energy Sector Index has increased by more than 40%. Yet, many investors, lenders and others remain wary of oil and gas companies, not only due to the energy industry’s historic volatility but also the unique social, political and financial pressures that hydrocarbon producers, midstreamers, and refiners face in demonstrating that they are addressing environmental, social, and governance issues. ESG has come to the fore in the U.S., Canada, and elsewhere, and will shape activity in the oil patch this decade and beyond, and energy companies that ignore it or only pay lip service do so at their peril. Today, we begin a series on the growing significance of ESG and how upstream, midstream, and downstream players are incorporating it into their strategies and operations.

The Most Brilliant Sports Ad Ever -- The Dallas Cowboys; Pandemic-Adjusted: "LV" Most Watched Super Bowl In History -- February 10, 2021

Updates

February 10, 2021: biggest takeaway among quarterbacks following TB12's performance in LV? Quarterbacks have said "enough is enough." Quarterbacks want to be protected. Tired of getting hit. TBB figured that out. They knew they had to protect their franchise player, and they did. This is the number one issue that keeps coming up on sports talk television this week following the Super Bowl.

February 10, 2021: wow, was I right on this one. This is still the biggest story on sports talk television this morning. The Super Bowl has already been forgotten but Jerry Jones and his Dallas Cowboys ad has everyone thinking it was the Cowboys in Super Bowl LV. LOL

The big story today: Russell Wilson complaining that he is getting hit too much. That was one of my takeaways from Super Bowl LV. See this note. From that post:

Bottom line: KCC schooled.
Offense, TBB:
keep it simple, understood the concept of the "queen bee"; protect TB12 at all costs;
sacked once?
TB12 standing upright at end of 99% of all plays?
never scrambled, except that one time going after a loose ball after a bad snap;
multi-dimensional: strong running game when it counted
passing: TB12 had only 200 passing yards

Pandemic-adjusted: most-watched Super Bowl in history. From Brietbart this morning:

Digital numbers were up 65 percent this year, proving that TV viewing continues to migrate away from broadcast TV and to streaming and mobile outlets.

Original Post
The Sports Page
The Most Brilliant Ad Ever

Updates

5:43 p.m. CT: I've literally watched every sports talk show on television today, from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. and every show has led off with "the ad." Near the end of the day the Cowobys organization finally weighed in, saying it was an "oversight." LOL. That guarantees this story will continue into tomorrow. It will not end until Dak Prescott himself has weighed in and analysts have exhausted parsing his remarks.

Original Post

The most brilliant "ad" ever?

The Dallas Cowboys commercial released today to encourage Dallas fans to buy season tickets.

This commercial -- 32 seconds long -- has been playing all morning on every sports talk television show.

The "talking heads" are laughing at the ad, but again, there is no serious analysis, asking "why?"

The "controversy": the 32-second ad encouraging Dallas fans to buy season tickets does not include any footage of Dak Prescott, but Troy Aikman does make the cut.

The immediate question whenever an ad is released: who is the audience?

The audience for this ad:

Dallas fans
Dak Prescott
the organization

Dallas fans:

this suggests to me the internal polling showed there is no love lost between Dallas fans and Dak Prescott;
internal polling might suggest that as great as Dak Prescott is, he is no Troy Aikman; not featuring him in the ad will not hurt season ticket sales;
if there's one thing Texans pride themselves in, it's loyalty -- not just sports fans, but Texans across the board -- patriotism, loyalty -- holding out for more pay, shorter contract does not exemplify loyalty; Dak said he would stay with Dallas only as long as the pay reflected his "self-appraised" value;

Dak Prescott:

need we say more?

the organization:

this is the biggie;
this ad has been playing nationwide all morning long; more exposure than the Dallas Cowboys could have gotten any other way; huge amount of exposure
Jerry Jones: the Dallas Cowboys -- "America's team" -- this kind of exposure is priceless
any other NFL team getting this kind of exposure just two days after the Super Bowl? Nope.
Jerry Jones is the organization; is the team; the 32-second ad is about the Cowboys, not about Dak
if the ad is about the Cowboys, no one is going to get higher billing than Jerry Jones

Bottom line:

brilliant ad;

Pages

Wednesday, February 10, 2021