"Honey, I Shrunk The Bakken" -- January 21, 2021

Updates

January 26, 2021: that didn't take long. Apparently drilling on BLM land does not run the risk of increasing atmospheric CO2 unlike drilling on non-BLM federal land.

January 22, 2021: see comments. Bringing one comment up here for easier access and the link -- 

Interesting article (long) that touches on some issues that could arise when Indians owning minerals on a reservation enter into a lease with a non tribal entity (oil co) and how/where and under whose laws disputes might end up being resolved.

https://www.azlawhelp.org/articles_info.cfm?mc=9&sc=48&articleid=399.

Original Post

Pore space: North Dakota finds "pore space bill" unconstitutional. Link at Williston Herald. 

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New Map of the Bakken
Bakken 5.0

Before Biden, eleven rigs:

After Biden, six rigs:

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Chinese Flu Watch

Japan has already bought and has on hand enough vaccine for each of its citizens. This does not bode well:

Closer Look At Five More Wells Proposed By MRO In The Bailey Oil Field -- January 21, 2021

Five new permits, January 21, 2021, #38083 - #38087, inclusive:

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Bailey (Dunn)
  
• Comments:
• 38083, Baisch, Lot 1 section 4-146-94, 213 FNL 627 FEL,
• 38084, Opal, Lot 1 section 4-146-94, 227 FNL 589 FEL,
• 38085, Delores, Lot 1 section 4-146-94, 242 FNL 552 FEL,
• 38086, Seidler, Lot 1 section 4-146-94, 256 FNL 514 FEL,
• 38087, Weidner, Lot 1 section 4-146-94, 271 FNL 477 FEL,

 Located in "same" location:

• 16459, 457, MRO, Oscar Stohler 41-4H, Lot 1 section 4-146-94, 614 FNL 609 FEL, t10/08; cum 594K 11/20; huge jump in production, 6/17; see full production here; see this post;
  
• 37997, loc, MRO, Phillip 41-4TFH, Lot 1 section 4-146-94, 285 FNL 439 FEL,
• 37996, loc, MRO, Christoph 41-4H, Lot 1 section 4-146-94, 300 FNL 402 FEL, 

Graphics:

UNP: The Post Mortem; Anticipating AAPL -- January 21, 2021

UNP:

• Motley Fool: Union Pacific continues to dial up its rail productivity.
• Zacks: UNP 4Q20 earnings surpass estimates; rise y/y;
• The Street: UNP falls despite strong quarter;
• FXEmpire: UNP beat Wall Street estimates; buy with target price of $235;
• Reuters: UNP shares fall amid concern over economy, Covid-19 vaccine rollout;

AAPL: Apple forecasted to report record-breaking quarter next week with revenue topping $100 billion. Link here. 

• current record: 1Q20 (one year ago, the Oct - Dec, holiday quarter): $91.8 billion;
• current quarter: 1Q21 (one year later, the Oct - Dec, holiday quarter); forecast: $100 billion+;
• one analyst: $105.2 billion
• another analyst: $108.2 billion
• "iPhone 12 as Apple's most successful product launch in the last five years"
• earnings report will be released at 1:30 p.m. PT Wednesday next week, January 27, 2021;

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Commentary: Day 1

Addendum, 11:45 p.m. CT: this does not bode well. What a mess. And it's just "day 1." Japan has already bought enough vaccine to vaccinate everyone of its citizens. The US, not so much:

Addendum, 10:14 p.m. CT: 

After the original note below, I went back and looked at twitter. The comments all confirm what I'm thinking. Killing the Keystone and banning new leasing on federal land (banning fracking, say some) makes it appear that China is writing the "Build Back Better" plan for the new CEO/CIC.

The Bismarck Tribune's editorial staff clearly supported Joe Biden. It will be interesting to see that same editorial staff comment on banning new leasing on federal land, which accounts for about a third of North Dakota production and about 100% of ND Amerindian income.

Posted, 9:45 p.m. CT.

For investors:

I think the UAL 4Q20 earnings report is the tipping point. United Airlines reported yesterday, I believe; the earnings call was this morning; link here. 

My impression: "everyone" knew the UAL earnings report was going to be bad; "everyone" was ignoring it, hoping that "we" were through the worst of it. Two takeaways from the earnings call:

• the fallout from Covid-19 was much worse than anything UAL had planned for (see linked story); and,
• UAL guidance suggested it would get worse before it gets better

That's where I was shortly after the earnings call this morning. As the day went on, it felt more ominous.

The second shoe dropped as they say. 

Dr Fauci, given free rein, at a wide-ranging news conference, admitted that it would not be at least until autumn, 2021, that things might be "better." That's another eight to ten months. I don't believe him. Things might be better in August but I don't think the "all clear" sign will be given by then. He did not imply that but a lot of folks are inferring that.

The "100 million vaccinated" in 100 days is malarkey. We are already at that rate, vaccinating just short of one million / day. If we fail to vaccinate 100 million in 100 days, it will be a huge "fail." Regardless, the "100 million vaccinated in 100 days" is a very, very low bar considering we were already vaccinating at that rate. 

Apparently Amazon discovered some software code that will help expedite vaccinating the nation. After the new CEO/CIC was sworn in, Amazon said they could help the vaccination drive. 

It bothers me that those who should be good at numbers still can't do simple arithmetic. Today, on CNBC, the CNBC analyst charged with the Covid-19 story noted that "100 million vaccinated in 100 days" is still not enough. With breathless reporting, the CNBC analyst said that "100 million was less than half of the US population." Well that's true, but in fact, it's less than one-third of the US population. The US population is 330 million in round numbers. 

The jobless report this morning was worse this morning than expected. And that was before the new CEO/CIC added hundreds of thousands with high-paying jobs to the unemployment rolls when he revoked the Keystone XL permit and banned new oil and gas leasing on federal lands. According to sources the pipeline operator is already sending out dismissal notices.

It will take a day or two for pundits to start asking the question if this is the right time to be cutting jobs in America, especially high-paying jobs. Of course there is an even bigger question but we'll let that go for now because that's a bridge too far for some. 

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China Flu Watch

Vaccinations doses distributed / vaccinations given (per cent shots used)

January 20, 2021 (Johns Hopkins-MIT-WSJ)
35,990, 150 / 16,525,281 (45.9)

Today, January 21, 2021 (Bloomberg)
37,960,000 / 18,449,288 (48.6)

Futures? trending lower.

A Closer Look At The Two Big CLR Cases In The February, 2021, Hearing Dockets

The two CLR cases in the February, 2021, hearing dockets:

Case No. 28687, first half: Application of Continental Resources, Inc. for an order authorizing the drilling, completing and producing of a total not to exceed sixteen wells on an existing 2560-acre spacing unit described as Sections 4, 9, 16 and 21, T.146N., R.95W; Chimney Butte-Bakken Pool, Dunn County, ND, and such other relief as is appropriate.

• 17398, 603, CLR, Kukla 1-21H, Chimney Butte, t6/09, cum 460K 11/20;
  

• 32094, 1,356, CLR, Kukla 7-16H, Chimney Butte, t5/17; cum 429K 11/20;  
• 32095, IA/68 (no typo), CLR, Candee 7-9H, Chimney Butte, t6/18; cum 68K 9/20; off line 10/20; 
• 32093, 1,409, CLR, Candee 8-9H1, Chimney Butte, t5/17; cum 411K 11/20;
  

• 29473, 1001, CLR, Candee 4-9H, Chimney Butte, t5/15; cum 354K 11/20;  
• 29474, 1088, CLR, Candee 5-9H1, Chimney Butte, t5/15; cum 278K 11/20;  
• 29475, 941, CLR, Candee 6-9H, Chimney Butte, t5/15; cum 309K 11/20;

• 29476, 538, CLR, Kukla 4-16H, Chimney Butte, t3/17; cum 374K 11/20; 
• 29477, 970, CLR, Kukla 5-16H1, Chimney Butte, t5/17; cum 299K 11/20; 
• 29478, 832, CLR, Kukla 6-16H, Chimney Butte, t2/17; cum 363K 11/20;

• 20548, 356, CLR, Candee 2-9H, Chimney Butte, t3/12; cum 305K 11/20;  
• 20547, 744, CLR, Kukla 2-16H, Chimney Butte, t4/12; cum 285K 11/20; 
• 20546, 813, CLR, Candee 3-9H, Chimney Butte, t4/12; cum 316K 11/20;  
• 20544, 1,301, CLR, Kukla 3-16H, Chimney Butte, t4/12; cum 494K 11/20;

Case No. 28687, second half: Application of Continental Resources, Inc. for an order authorizing the drilling, completing and producing of a total not to exceed fourteen wells on an existing
2560-acre spacing unit described as Sections 5, 8, 17 and 20, T.146N. R.95W., Chimney Butte-Bakken Pool, Dunn County, ND, and such other relief as is appropriate. 

•  22773, 1,471, CLR, Jensen 2-8AH, Chimney Butte, t9/12; cum 423K 11/20;

• 23604, 244, CLR, Jensen 4-8H1, Chimney Butte, t9/13; cum 291K 11/20;
• 23603, 962, CLR, Jensen 3-8H, Chimney Butte, t9/13; cum 346K 11/20;

• 23606, 787, CLR, Mittlestadt 4-17H1, Chimney Butte, t8/13; cum 216K 11/20;
• 23605, 854, CLR, Jensen 3-17H, Chimney Butte, t8/13; cum 277K 11/20;

• 31803, 1,633, CLR, Jensen 7-8H, Chimney Butte, t1/19; cum 329K 11/20;
• 31801, 1,703, CLR, Jensen 5-8H1, Chimney Butte, t12/18; cum 416K 11/20;
• 31802, 2,238, CLR, Jensen 6-8H, Chimney Butte, t1/19; cum 467K 11/20;

• 31800, 1,814, CLR, Mittlestadt 7-17H, Chimney Butte, t1/19; cum 335K 11/20;
• 31798, 1,928, CLR, Mittlestadt 5-17H1, Chimney Butte, t1/19; cum 281K 11/20;
• 31799, 1,949, CLR, Mittlestadt 6-17H, Chimney Butte, t1/19; cum 271K 11/20;

• 21569, 723, CLR, Mittlestadt 2-20H, Chimney Butte, t7/12; cum 405K 11/20;
• 17201, 956, CLR, Mittlestadt 1-20H, Chimney Butte, t11/08; cum 269K 9/20;
  

• 16316, IA/280, CLR, Jensen 1-5H, Chimney Butte, t1/07; cum 227K 12/19;
  

Case No. 28688: Application of Continental Resources, Inc. for an order authorizing the drilling, completing and producing of a total not to exceed eighteen wells on an existing 2560-acre spacing unit described as Sections 6, 7, 18 and 19, T.146N., R.95W., Jim Creek-Bakken Pool, Dunn County, ND, and such other relief as is appropriate.

• 16537, 202, CLR, Dvirnak 14-6H, two sections, Jim Creek, t9/07; cum 254K 11/20;
  

• 19968, 757, CLR, Pletan 2-18H, two sections, Jim Creek, t8/11; cum 396K 11/20;

• 16716, 208, CLR, Pletan 1-18H, two sections, Jim Creek, t2/08; cum 339K 11/20;
  

• 20806, 744, CLR, Dvirnak 2-7H, four sections, Jim Creek, t12/11; cum 376K 11/20;
• 20808, 1,106, CLR, Pletan 3-18H, Jim Creek, t12/11; cum 390K 11/20;
• 20807, 2,831, CLR, Dvirnak 3-7H, Jim Creek, t12/11; cum 480K 11/20;
• 20809, 1,294, CLR, Pletan 4-18H, Jim Creek, t12/11; cum 264K 11/20;

• 30136, 1,008, CLR, Pletan 5-18H2, four sections, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 260K 11/20; 
• 30137, 1,228, CLR, Pletan 6-18H1, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 280K 11/20; 
• 30138, 2,574, CLR, Pletan 7-18H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 412K 11/20; 
• 32748, 2,728, CLR, Dvirnak 7-7H1, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 518K 11/20; 
• 32749, 2,358, CLR, Dvirnak 8-7H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 413K 11/20;

• 30139, 2,034, CLR, Dvirnak 7-7H2, four sections, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 307K 11/20; 
• 30140, 2,962, CLR, Dvirnak 5-7H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 433K 11/20; 
• 30141, 2,076, CLR, Dvirnak 6-7H1, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 222K 11/20; 
• 32899, 2,186, CLR, Dvirnak 9-7H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 480K 11/20;
  

New CEO/CIC Temporarily Bans All New Onshore Federal Drilling --January 21, 2021

Ban on drilling: simply for the archives. We'll wait to see how New Mexico and Amerindians respond. Impact:

• Amerindians
• New Mexico public schools
  
• need for new pipelines; Keystone XL, DAPL
• operators need to write off assets? 
• Saudi Arabia celebrates; OPEC+ cheers;
  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$53.13	1/21/2021	01/21/2020	01/21/2019	01/21/2018	01/21/2017
Active Rigs	12	53	67	58	38

Five new permits, #38083 - #38087, inclusive:

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Bailey (Dunn)
  
• Comments (see graphics and production of existing well here):
• 38083, Baisch, Lot 1 146-94, 213 FNL 627 FEL,
• 38084, Opal, Lot 1 146-94, 227 FNL 589 FEL,
• 38085, Delores, Lot 1 146-94, 242 FNL 552 FEL,
• 38086, Seidler, Lot 1 146-94, 256 FNL 514 FEL,
• 38087, Weidner, Lot 1 146-94, 271 FNL 477 FEL,

Six new permits:

• MRO (3): a Coan permit, a Storedale permit, and a Mathia permit, all in Dunn County;
• Petroharvester (2): two LIG2 permits in Burke County;
• Oasis: a Borden Federal permit in Williams County;

Slawson transferred four Jore Federal wells to White Butte Oil Operations, LLC.

NDIC Hearing Dockets, February, 2021 Have Posted

Link here. 

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Wednesday, February 17, 2021
Two Pages

Cases (these are cases, not permits):

• 28665, Petro-Hunt, Stockyard Creek-Bakken; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sections 16/17/18/19/20/21-154-99; one well; Williams County;
• 28666, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Bay and Elm Tree-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, sections 13-153-95 and section 18-153-94, one well; McKenzie County;
• 28667, Petro-Hunt, Charlson-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, sections 26/27-153-95, one well, McKenzie County
• 28668, Petro-Hunt, Little Knife-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 2/3/10/11-144-98, one well; Billings County;
• 28669, Petrogulf Corp, flaring, McKenzie, Mountrail,
• 28670, Kraken, pooling,
• 28671, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken, on a 2560-acre unit, two wells, sections 13/24-157-94 and section 18/19-157-93; Mountrail County
• 28672, Hess, commingling;
• 28673, MRO, pooling,
• 28674, MRO, pooling,
• 28675, MRO, pooling,
• 28676, Mavis Berry, conversion to a fresh water well;

Thursday, February 18, 2021
Six Pages

Cases (these are cases, not permits):

• 28677, CLR, Chimney Butte-Bakken, establish four overlapping 2560-acre units; two wells between the existing spacing units; Dunn County;
• 28678, Kraken, Sanish-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; ii) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Mountrail;
• 28679, Wesco Operating, Bicentennial Field, request waiver for bond requirement for produced water gathering pipeline,
• 28680, CLR, pooling;
• 28681, CLR, pooling;
• 28682, CLR, pooling;
• 28683, CLR, pooling;
• 28684, CLR, pooling;
• 28685, CLR, pooling;
• 28686, CLR, pooling;
• 28687, CLR, Chimney Butte-Bakken, on an existing 2560-acre unit, sections 4/9/16/21-146-95, sixteen wells; and, on an existing 2560-acre unit, sections 5/8/17/20-146-95, fourteen wells; Dunn County; for more on this case, see this post;
  
• 28688, CLR, Jim Creek-Bakken, on an existing 2560-acre unit, sections 6/7/18/19-146-95, eighteen wells; Dunn County; for more on this case, see this post;
• 28689, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 28690, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 28691, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 28692, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 28693, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 28694, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 28695, Crescent Point Energy, commingling;
• 28696, EOG, commingling;
• 28697, McKenzie Energy Partners, LLC, SWD;
  

Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- January 21, 2021

Early trading. 

AA: oh-oh. Down almost 10% day after new CEO/CIC for the US is sworn in. Repeat: down almost 10% one day later. Wasn't Alcoa a bellwether some years ago? I wonder who uses a lot of aluminum these days? I know I flew back from Portland, OR, to DFW, two nights ago in what appeared to be an aluminum tube.

BKR: has changed its ticker symbol so often in the past few years, I assume a lot of folks have lost track of it. Baker Hughes, then Baker-GE, now just Baker. Who knows? Maybe soon WBKR: "where's Baker?" But it's on a tear today. Was up even more earlier this morning, but now up 1.34%.

UNP: investors not happy with earnings report provided this morning. Down a whopping $8/share -- about 3.5%. Buying opportunity.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Pipelines: sort of a mixed bag. Investors are weighing impact of killing the Keystone XL.

Airlines: I think they are in deeper trouble than we are being told. CNBC's analyst on airlines puts up a good front, but this a.m. seems a bit more sanguine on airlines. Look at UAL. This is not good at all. All airlines down this morning. Capacity in 1Q20 being reported at 50 - 60%. Even if Covid went away today, a lot of folks would prefer virtual meetings. 

UAL: not unexpected. Posted a $2.1 billion 4Q20 loss, its fourth-in-a-row; issued a tepid near-term forecast. Down another 5% today. Trading at $42.75. 

TGT: up $5.10; up almost 3%.

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Remote Learning And Banana Bread

In a few minutes Sophia will begin her "remote learning" day with me (her school mornings are at her house with her mom and older sisters; from 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. she is at our little apartment).

She will do remote learning on her Webex and Seesaw, and periodically she will turn off the Webex video (so she can't be seen) so she can prepare and bake her banana bread. The ingredients have been set out for her. 

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Crawdad Season

It's only January, but I'm already looking for crawdad season ... I think it begins in March. Two years ago, I went to the seafood restaurant and had crawdads ... twice. Last year, due to Covid-19, I ordered crawdads from two different restaurants and had crawdads eight times. This year, I hope to double that. I got started late last year. So, yes, Covid-19 has changed my habits, and even when Covid-19 goes away and life gets back to normal, I will do the same. I save about 50% on total lunch of crawdads because I order only crawdads from the restaurants. Sides and drinks are already here at the house and are essentially "free" compared to what those sides and drinks would cost me at the restaurant. Plus the dollars in tips saved. It's quite amazing. And since most folks in my extended family doesn't care for crawdads, they don't have to come to the restaurant, order something else, while I have crawdads. I have crawdads at home and they have their dinner. 

And no haircut in the past year. At $20/haircut, twice a month .... well, do the math ...

And gasoline? The last time I filled up with gasoline for my little Honda Civic was December 13th, 2020. 

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The Next Best Big Thing
From The Perspective Of A Six Year Old

Sophia asked me to write this note and give it to her director at TutorTime. After "remote learning," Sophia goes to TutorTime for her after-school program, 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. I telephone Sophia before I pick her up each day about 5:00 p.m. to see when she wants to be picked up. When I call the center, the director transfers the call directly to Sophia's room and her teacher hands the telephone to Sophia. It's complicated. 

So, Sophia had a better idea, until she's allowed to have her own Apple Watch:

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Bad News, Good News, Really Bad News

Bad news: yesterday, US set a new record for number of Covid-19 related deaths. This will improve once the administration issues new criteria defining "Covid-19-related" deaths. Of course, the best thing the government could do would be to impose a $35,000 administration-compliance fee on any physician who lists cause of death as "Covid-related."

Good news: yesterday, number of new cases below 200,000, continuing that trend set in the previous administration. Expect this number to fall precipitously as government mandates less sensitive testing. 

Really bad news: Dr Fauci will take on a bigger role in policy development. Look for:

• TM: triple masking; with quadruple masking for GOP in the US Senate
  
• MMIP: mandated masks in public
• BBB: masks must carry "Bring Back Better" logo
• Slow down the vaccination rollout; need to get it right; bureaucracies need to be in control; avoid pushing vaccination too quickly; could lead to unforeseen problems
• establish new cabinet-level agency: Department of Pandemic Affairs, patterned after the VA 
  

Whoo-Hoo! Enbridge To Benefit From Keystone XL Decision -- January 21, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Link here.

Summary: 

• Biden is set to cancel the Keystone XL Presidential Permit, killing the entire project.
• TC Energy and the Canadian government tried to appeal, promising billions in renewable development and American jobs. Odds still appear low.
• Meanwhile, Enbridge is waiting from a corner, anxiously awaiting results. Its Mainline system is perhaps the largest beneficiary of Keystone XL cancellation.
• Because of this, it might not be a surprise to see management back off its request to shift to longer-term contracts on Mainline, instead sticking with spot shipments.

Narrative:

Enbridge, the owner of the Enbridge Mainline, is likely observing all of this with great interest. Its pipelines that cross the border, for all intents and purposes, have as close to a monopoly as one can manage to get. The majority of crude oil barrels that are sent south for use in US refineries - many of which require these heavier, sour grades to function - flow on Enbridge lines. Further, the Line 3 Replacement project effectively would increase that capacity and at this point, with all permits in hand, Enbridge should have smooth sailing ahead to completing all work, albeit all accomplished just mere months before the Trump - Biden transition. The firm is setting pretty.

The Line 3 Replacement, alongside Keystone XL and the Trans Mountain Expansion, have been key projects pitched to solve wide differentials. Competing pipelines have been an Enbridge worry for some time, and with the spectre of competition looming, Enbridge had begun to engage in some shenanigans.

To explain, for the entirety of its 70 years of operation, the Enbridge Mainline has operated in the spot market. Fully 100% of the network's capacity is available under monthly shipment contracts. If over allotted (as it has been quite often), prospective shippers receive a pro-rated allocation. These spot contracts give producers flexibility to secure volumes without locking themselves into expensive long-term commitments.

Those expensive long-term commitments are exactly what Enbridge wanted to shift to in recent years. Enbridge appealed to the Canada Energy Regulator ("CER") to do just that, conveniently when Keystone XL and the Trans Mountain Expansion prospects were looking great. In its defense, Enbridge has stated that it simply wants to mirror the contracts backing other projects and key long haul pipelines across North America, but investors should not kid themselves. Management is pursuing this change because it was in its best economic interest. Rather than see future Mainline volumes fluctuate (and thus cash flows as well), it wanted to get ahead of the upcoming competition, locking shippers into contracts now while there is a dearth of capacity. Canadian oil producers, including Canadian Natural Resources and countless others, rightly challenged the proposal.

Photos Per Reader's Request -- January 21, 2021

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/20/graphics-trump-and-biden-inaugurations-compared.

 

Per a reader's request:

 

One Day Later; Completely Unexpected -- The Sun "Came Up" As Usual -- January 21, 2021

First things first: housing numbers came in a whole lot better than expected. The market apparently didn't care. In early morning trading the S&P 500 and Dow are down slightly; NASDAQ is up a bit. 

Most fun: listening to the narrative on the Chinese flu changing. Even CNBC is starting to tell us what we already knew. Over at twitter, folks are starting to say the pandemic is quickly coming to an end.  Link here.

Operation All Clear: all that chatter about 100 million vaccinations in his first 100 days. LOL. Trump was already averaging one million vaccinations/day over each of the five days prior to the inauguration. In fact, if they only achieve 100 million vaccinations in 100 days it will be a "FAIL." They set the bar so low a cave man could do it.

Jobless claims: did anyone really get up early to see those numbers? LOL.

Portland: more protests overnight. Apparently sad to see Trump leave. Hard to believe that Portland used tear gas in a long, long time -- first night of Biden's administration. 

UNP: most important news that we will get today. At opening, UNP falls 2%, falls over $4/share. Reports EPS of $2.05 and revenue of $1.4 billion. But adjusted, earnings were $2.36. So hard to say. Forecast: $2.23. Bottom line: at best: in line. At worst: not as good as expected.

Baker Hughes: on the other hand, BKR is on a tear: up almost 4% at one point. Currently up77 cents/share.

ECB: "central rate" unchanged. Says economy "probably" contracted. EURO has strengthened against US dollar.  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$53.06	1/21/2021	01/21/2020	01/21/2019	01/21/2018	01/21/2017
Active Rigs	12	53	67	58	38

One well coming off the confidential list -- Thursday, January 21, 2021: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 31 for the year.

• 37505, loc/NC, CLR, Miles 11-6H2,Dimmick Lake,
  

RBN Energy: Mexico Pacific Ltd.'s LNG export project in Puerto Libertad.

There are no absolute certainties in the energy industry, but one thing a lot of people are betting on is increasing demand for LNG in Asia. A long list of countries there — China, Japan, and South Korea among them — have been shifting from nuclear and coal-fired power generation to natural gas, and as they do, their demand for LNG will be mind-blowing. The U.S. has emerged as a major supplier, but shipping LNG from the Gulf Coast to Asia involves either transiting the busy and costly Panama Canal or taking much longer routes through the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope. All of that has helped spur interest in developing LNG export terminals in western Mexico that would pipe in and liquefy Permian gas, then ship it straight across the Pacific Ocean. Today, we discuss plans for a large-scale liquefaction/export project aimed squarely at Asian buyers.

January 21, 2021

 

Link here.