Notes From All Over -- The WFH Edition -- July 13, 2021

Gatorade: flying off the shelves. Who owns Gatorade? For $230 million, PepsiCo bought Quaker Oats in 2001 and now owns the Gatorade brand.

FANG: Carl Quintanilla takes credit for the FANG acronym; Jim Cramer says he never gets credit due him. LOL. But, if true, that's interesting about FANG.  

AAPL: surging. Up almost $2.00 / share today.

Oil: WTI, up; oil companies, down.

Instant gratification: first, look at the screenshot --

Now, my thoughts:

Black Widow was huge. Absolutely huge. But such "events" / movies will be the exception. This is the problem for movies like Black Widow. Going to the movie theater is generally a group experience: a couple, a trio, a family, a small group of friends. But, now, folks can see these things immediately by paying a premium to stream it at the same time it's released downtown. By the time the group (the couple, the trio, the family, the small group) finally gets a date scheduled, most have seen the movie and have less interest in going downtown to see the movie again.

Virgin Galactic: in free fall. The stock. Not the plane. 

The best business TV: the one-hour on CNBC with unscripted conversation among Jim Cramer, Carl Quintanilla, and David Faber, [Mark Haines (1946 - 2011) was the gold standard], between 8:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. CT.

The second best business TV: FastMoney (this is the one-hour show hosted by Melissa prior to the Jim Cramer's MadMoney show).

Food and beverage: will hardly be hurt by inflation; folks will pay whatever it takes to get their cereal, and their Starbucks. Trust me on this one. 

Number of days in past twelve days that US equity markets have hit new all-time highs: most since the 1960s. CNBC. Ten days in past twelve days: US equity markets hit new all-time highs.

The Goldman Sachs numbers were so good, the obvious question needs to be asked: why make workers working from home return to work .

Productivity, efficiency: has increased remarkably due to the pandemic. The effects will be lasting. 

Black swan: why have we heard "nothing" about the "black swan" (2020). The light bulb just went on: black swans are generally associated with single companies and something financial advisors worry about and protect themselves with a diverse portfolio; the 2020 "black swan" affected large segments of the global economy; it did not limit itself to one company, thus the "black swan" meme does not work. Let's check wiki: I'm wrong. Isn't this interesting? See TIL below.

Used cars: accounts for one-third of the increase in the CPI numbers that were released this morning. Take out "used cars" component, what would the CPI numbers be today? Again, the analysis regarding used cars would be interesting:

• chip shortage
• new car shortage
• new cars incredibly expensive
• after one year WFH, folks returning to work
• college students returning to campus
• avoidance of mass transportation due to Covid-19 / Delta variant worries 

From twitter, used cars:

Boeing:

• Jim Cramer: scathing remarks regarding bad news coming from Boeing
• Jim Cramer has always liked Boeing; major reversal; it will be interesting to see how the #1 CNBC apologist, Phil LeBeau will respond to most recent news coming out of Boeing;
• Cramer says he "is just sick about this (Boeing), a national treasure"
  
• Boeing:
• huge debt load
• down 2.5% in pre-market trading
• up 36% in past one year

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TIL: Covid-19 Was Not A Black Swan

From wiki:

Based on the author's criteria: 

• the event is a surprise (to the observer). 
• the event has a major effect. 
• after the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals. 

According to Taleb, as it was expected with great certainty that a global pandemic would eventually take place, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a black swan, but is considered to be a white swan; such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties.

White swan: "A global pandemic is clearly a white swan -- an event that is certain to occur at some point."