Observed Holiday -- No New NDIC Data Posted Today -- Price Of Oil Moving Up Today -- July 5, 2021

Updates

Later, 4:57 p.m. CT: wow, wow, wow -- apparently the OPEC+ meeting was called off; no date set for next meeting. What is oil doing?

• WTI: up 1.60%; up $1.20; trading at $76.36;
• Brent: up 1.30%; up $1.00; trading at $77.16;

Later, 11:22 a.m. CT: wow -- oil prices up!

• WTI: up 1.2%; up 90 cents; trading at $76.06;
• Brent: up 1.0%; up 76 cents; trading at $76.93;
• look at the narrowing spread between WTI and Brent

Later, 11:20 a.m. CT: it's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil, but I agree with this analyst -- oil unlikely to hit $100 without a major geopolitical event.

• as prices go up, Chinese imports drop;
• as prices go up, US shale production will increase;
• flaw in this analysis: 
• Chinese demand may tolerate higher fuel prices
• right or wrong, most analysts argue it's OPEC's "call," not US shale that drives price of oil
  

Original Post

OPEC: no news is good news. If they cannot come to an agreement, current production quotas remain in place, as I understand it. There's a lot of chatter about the OPEC talks but the best way to figure it out, is to follow the price of oil.

• Brent: up 0.22%; up 17 cents; trading at $76.32;
• WTI: up 0.20%; up 15 cents; trading at $75.31;
• Brent-WTI delta at $2.00; pretty much where it's been for quite some time;

Global supply / demand: the general consensus seems to be that with or without relaxing the production quotas, new global production will continue to come up short of new global demand; if so, one should continue to see draws of crude oil in storage.

European natural gas: link here. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$75.33	7/5/2021	07/05/2020	07/05/2019	07/05/2018	07/05/2017
Active Rigs	23	11	58	64	57

Due to the holiday, no new data from the NDIC will be reported today.

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At The Pool Over The Fourth