For A Holiday Monday, Busy, Busy, Busy -- July 5, 2021

Let's see what happens: UK with Delta variant surge, but Boris Johnson stays the course -- will remove final Covid curbs. UK data here. Note total new cases vs new deaths. 

Texas: Covid-19 data here. The curve is definitely flattened. The question is whether there will be new spikes or whether the "curve" will remain at a plateau, nothing more than background noise. It would be interesting to hear an epidemiologist's thoughts on this. As an example, look at Hawaii at the CDC link. And then look at Hawaii's vaccination rate (very similar to the US as a whole): Hawaii has a population of 1.5 million; one million have had at least one dose; 750,000 (50%) are considered fully vaccinated.

Holiday: it's unlikely the CDC will post any Covid-19 statistics today due the holiday.

OPEC in disarray: OPEC meeting called off; no new date set. Who blinks first? What is oil doing?

• WTI: up 1.60%; up $1.20; trading at $76.36;
• Brent: up 1.30%; up $1.00; trading at $77.16;

Bloomberg: OPEC+ deal fails; leaving oil market tighter as prices surge. Twelve hours until tomorrow's markets open.

US shale operators: never saw this coming. This was the least-expected outcome.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) buying back its own August-loading LPG cargoes as higher US propane prices narrowed the arbitrage to Asia and led to lower prices for spot fob cargoes. ArgusMedia.

Risk of free-for all. Just because there's no meeting, that doesn't mean there's no meetings. My hunch: Saudi prince making a lot of phone calls and will eventually get his way. Is Russia even a player any more? Don't take that out of context. Is it checkers (red vs black) or "Chinese checkers (yellow, red, green, white, black, blue). If checkers, Saudi and Russia would be on same team; something tells me it's not that simple.

News! Not news! Iraq confirms oil majors plan to leave the country. Oil major exodus in Iraq creates opportunity for China. In addition, the Trump administration wanted to "exit" the Mideast, and it's questionable whether the Biden administration is capable of pivoting on a dime. One wonders how WTI / Brent trade if OPEC essentially pivots 100% to China/Asia?

Breakevens: from Robert Clarke, over at Twitter, "ultra-low breakevens get a lot of critique. But $76 WTI covers virtually all the L48 cost curve. Some Bone Spring, SCOOP-STACK, and Three Forks can't clear 15% (half-cycle) but that's about it. Remarkable rebound."

$100 oil: from a twit over at Twitter -- "People are too concerned about demand destruction (as prices increase). We had $100 - $110 prices for years and were fine, And that was a decade ago. Adjusted for inflation, $75 - $80 still affordable." Another twit, "I don't think oil is expensive and a recovery issue until $90 or so."

Iraq: from another twit -- "Iraq does not want to see an oil-price war. Iraq hopes to see date for next OPEC+ talks within ten days."

Afghanistan: all US troops out of Bagram Airfield; new Afghan commander of the Bagram Airfield was not even aware all Americans had left until hours after last American out. Look for name change for Bagram Airfield by end of the year: most likely an Arabic-Taliban name.

US holiday today:

• US stocks not trading, but...
• how did Canadian oil stocks do?
• apparently, SU (Suncor Energy) was up 1.73%, right at $30/share)

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