All Things Considered -- The Spam Edition --- WTI Continues Its Free-Fall -- No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- Director's Cut Scheduled To Be Released Today -- July 20, 2021

First things first: on Shepard Smith tonight -- the craze in Spam! What's going on? Quick: who owns Spam. By the way, I reported some months ago there was a Spam shortage -- even Costco had a sign at the door telling customers they were sold out. 

December 26, 2020.

September 2, 2020:

Of the 1,000's of line items at Costco, our local store reported six items out-of-stock today:

• deep / chest freezers
• four items related to cleaning / cleansing
• Spam

Amazon?

• More than enough. Order it today, and get it by tomorrow morning, just in time for breakfast

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The Canned Meat Page

I love Spam. Long story.

I thought my favorite was jalapeno spam. That changed today. New favorite: hickory smoke Spam.

Going Up The Country, Canned Heat

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Back to Serious

This is absolutely incredible. We don't get these opportunities often. I hope long-term investors are paying attention. 

Oil prices inch even lower following devastating seven percent single-day loss. -- Oilprice.

Ten-year treasury: 1.136%. Absolutely fascinating. There are a lot of indications that Jay Powell is threading the needle, as they say. Sometime down the road there will be more discussions regarding the recent surge in prices: all "increase in prices" is considered inflation, but all inflationary events are not "created equal." Steve Liesman couldn't explain it, but then said he could make a case for 2.25%. Suggested reasons for the 1.136%:

• fear: some feel the delta variant will significantly slow down the economic recovery;
• bullish: some feel that Jay Powell is correct -- this "inflation" is transitory;
• money manager: many institutions have sold their stocks to lock in their gains for the year, and park their money in bonds;
• others: thin summer trading exacerbates the move;

For investors only: hopefully everyone is paying attention.

Talking their book; I don't believe either of them: Riyadh and Moscow claim biggest wins from OPEC+ deal. Yeah. After the deal, oil plummets 7% -- one of the biggest one-day drops in the price of oil. Ever.  The link is to a Rigzone article.

Oil: from the blog on Sunday --

Reuters: sees deal as bullish. At least from Iraq's perspective. Link here.  My thoughts:

• It seems analysts are pretty much evenly divided on whether we will see peak supply (higher prices) or peak demand (falling prices). 
• OPEC talking its book. Of course, OPEC says supply won't meet demand in 2022 -- sees higher prices. 
• Market on Monday will tell us what analysts think. Bears will focus on 400K/daily increase. Bulls will counter that this doesn't begin until May, 2022. My hunch: the bears win. Watch for oil to trend down this week. 
  
• Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will not do well with $60 oil. Even $70 oil is not all that good for Saudi Arabia. Someone should run the Saudi Aramco numbers to see price of oil required to cover that $75 billion dividend. By the end of 2024, Iraq should pretty much be owned by China. Western oil companies pulling out.

Oil: that was right on target. LOL. Although I think I was wrong regarding the "start" date. I believe the start date is next month, August, for increased production, at 400K bopd. Oil prices inch even lower following devastating seven percent single-day loss. -- Oilprice.

What's worse: dying of thirst or long-term exposure to manganese. Asking for a friend. From The LA Times:

Rick Daniels lies awake at night worrying about a rusty contraption in a forlorn field littered with discarded pipes and fire hydrants. Across California and the West, the current drought is causing many wells to dry up, but few other communities are looking at their single water lifeline going to zero.

According to Daniels, the city manager, it is the only water pump in Needles that meets state water quality standards, running 23 hours a day to keep up with demand. That’s a thin margin in one of America’s hottest cities, an urban speck in the desert near California’s border with Arizona.

If this lone pump fails, 5,000 residents face the ultimate risk of taps running dry, as temperatures soar past 120 degrees and people need to drink as much as two gallons daily — or else face dire consequences.

Historically, the city has depended on four wells that draw from the river’s nearby aquifer. That worked fine for decades until late last year when California’s water authorities notified the city that three of its wells failed to meet state standards because of a naturally occurring mineral — manganese — that affects health. A May citation found the city had violated state water law and ordered a corrective plan by the end of this year.

But the city says it can’t afford a fix, which would include a new well for $1.5 million.

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Back to the Bakken

Still to report: the NDIC has not yet updated the two wells that came off the confidential list yesterday, #35560 and #37479. It's possible I have something wrong, but according to the "confidential well list," #35560 was scheduled to come off the list on July 17, 2017; and, #37479 was scheduled to come off the list July 18, 2021. 

Active rigs:

$65.52	7/20/2021	07/20/2020	07/20/2019	07/20/2018	07/20/2017
Active Rigs	23	11	55	68	59

No wells coming off the confidential list.

RBN Energy: Plains/Oryx midstream joint venture creates Permian crude juggernaut.

The massive energy-industry dislocations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic forced every upstream, midstream, and downstream player to consider what it all meant for them and what they could and should do to weather the storm. A common theme emerged: management needed to delay or even jettison their plans for growth and instead focus on efficiency by cutting costs, working to maximize the revenue from every molecule, and seeking out opportunities to streamline and optimize their operations. A prime example of this push for efficiency came last week with the announcement by Plains All American and Oryx Midstream that each will contribute assets to a new, Plains-operated crude oil pipeline joint venture in the heart of the Permian’s Delaware Basin. Today, we review the plan and its rationale.