Of the many non-Bakken issues I touch on, there are two issues that I find a) most perplexing, and b) seem most generational (older folks like me think one thing; younger folks think otherwise).
The two non-Bakken issues I'm talking about:
EVs (electric vehicles); and,
Covid-19.
I'm actually fascinated by both issues and my feeling, opinions, thoughts can change, flip overnight.
It's become such a big issue for me -- these two issues -- that sometimes I think I need to dedicate two "new" blogs to these issues and not discuss them periodically on the Bakken blog, but I simply don't have enough time to do that.
Where I stand tonight on these two issues:
EVs:
the best I can say: automobile manufacturers are going to have a devil of a time threading this needle; making money while investing huge amounts of capital over the next several years;
what I really think: the numbers simply don't add up on so many levels; in other words, I won't see any significant EV penetration over the next ten years to make it more than a hobby horse among manufacturers and consumers.
Tonight, nothing anyone says can get me to change my mind on this one.
Covid-19:
the best I can say: I have to simply avoid the issue; it's no longer science;
what I really think: everybody will eventually test positive for Covid-19, vaccinated or unvaccinated.
There are two links regarding Covid-19 that prompted me to post this.
August 10, 2021: the 202One Tokyo Olympics are over; no one noticed. Except Breitbart. Archived.
Original Post
Biles bails: Simone Biles withdraws from two more events. Does
that make it three events, now? Only two more events to go. Indicates
she may not compete again. The WSJ -- makes for entertaining weekend reading. Link here. All I know is S. Lee is happy, happy, happy. You don't think she felt more pressure than Biles? Later, July 31, 2021, late Saturday night in a tweet, Biles says she will not participate in the individual floor exercise.
The real superspreader events this summer: hundreds of thousands of Texans streaming north to evacuate record-setting hurricanes.
Fact check: actually that's not accurate. The real superspreader event this summer will be CDC's ineffective mask mandate:
Inflation:
Inflation is increasingly a lot like the weather: everyone talks about it, but no one does anything about it.
The Commerce Department released its version of an inflation report on
Friday. Called the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, this is
the measure of inflation preferred by the Federal Reserve ever since
the Fed ditched the Department of Labor's Consumer Price Index sometime
around the turn of the century. The official reason for the divorce was
that the expenditure weights in the PCE can change as people substitute
away from some goods and services toward others—making it a more timely
read on prices paid by households—and that the PCE includes more
comprehensive coverage of goods and services than the old fashioned CPI.
Cynics at the time accused the Fed of favoring the PCE Price Index
because it tended to show lower inflation. Back then, people thought
that the Alan Greenspan-led Fed was looking to downplay inflation. The
punchline to that joke is that after the financial crisis, the Fed's big
project was trying to raise inflation to two percent a year—a task it
failed at for nearly a decade.
The
good news—if you want to call it that—is that the long history of
undershooting inflation has come to an end. Annual PCE inflation came in
at 4 percent in June, the highest rate since June of 2008. Core PCE
inflation, which strips out food and energy, hit 3.5 percent, the
highest level since 1991. This is far above anything forecast by the
Federal Reserve earlier this year. But it actually slightly undershot
Wall Street's expectations for 3.6 percent core inflation.
Changing inflation expectations were the theme of Friday's University of
Michigan report on consumer sentiment from Richard Curtin. Expected
inflation over the next year rose to 4.7 percent from 4.2 percent in
June. That’s the highest level in over a decade. Consumers remain quite
relaxed about inflation over the longer-term, seeing five-year inflation
averaging 2.8 percent. That may be about to change, Curtin warns,
because an "inflation storm" looms just over the horizon as consumers
are increasingly willing to pay up for goods and services on the grounds
that it's just a temporary blip due to the reopening. That, however, is
enough to "generate an upward spiral in prices and wages," in Curtin's
view. Add to that a Fed determined not to raise rates and a
Democrat-controlled government determined to spend trillions. It may not
be enough for an inflation hurricane, but we won't be surprised if a
tropical storm or two hits.
– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network
Olympics television ratings: nobody cares -- NBC:
(link:
https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2021/07/30/woke-olympics-ratings-collapse-nbc-blames-bad-luck-negativity-zero-spectators/.)
California:
how did that renewable energy thingy work out? The governor now orders
energy producers and consumers to massively increase CO2 emissions to
prevent state-wide blackouts. I can't make this stuff up. Link here.
This is so egregious I may re-post it as a stand-alone. Worse: if the
California grid fails, a nationwide-domino effect is possible. China
syndrome redux?
Powerline's week in pictures' theme this week: the lockdown sequel (link here).
I think they really, really, really missed it this week.
The
best meme of the week: Joe Biden saying he once drove 18-wheelers.
That's right up there with Algore's "I invented the internet."
Think of the "Joe-Biden-keep-on-trucking" memes:
visiting truck factory: I once drove 18-wheelers. They were big and bright yellow and had four wheels and a swing-out stop sign.
visiting NASA: I was an astronaut a long time ago; went into space before Alan Shepard. In fact, I'm still in space.
visiting naval base: I remember commanding a nuclear sub when Jimmy Carter was president.Wasn't he a doofus?
Memorial Day / VA cemetery: this is where I most feel at home. In fact, maybe I am home.
visiting Amtrak: c'mon man. We can do better. I remember when Congress almost changed Amtrak's name to Bidentrack. Hmmm, why not? That $1 trillion infrastructure bill needs a catchy name.
State of the Union Address: just think. I've given more speeches in this building than any other president, dead or alive.Where' am I?
visiting a 7-11 convenience store: my brother-in-law is from India. He has a string of these stores.
Today, market cap of $2.411 trillion with share price at $145.86 and 16.53 billion shares.
Keeping market cap at $2.411 trillion; and dividing by "new number of shares after the theoretical buyback" = $2.411 trillion / 16,485,436,710 = $146.25.
So, Apple, Inc. borrows $6.5 billion for share buyback and all things being equal, increases the value of the shares from $145.86 to $146.25.
Hellooooo! AAPL shares were just shy of $150 before the buyback was announced and before the company announced it would borrow $6.5 billion for share buybacks.
In this market, share repurchases and fundamentals seem to make little (no) difference in the perceived value of these companies or their shares. It's all about MOJO, FOMO, YOLO, ESG, emotion, the Fed, and hucksters.
TheStreet headline: Apple stock gains on new bond sale plans: Jim Cramer sees share buybacks.
Nonsense.
They can spin this anyway they want, but the average mom-and-pop retail investor cares not for repurchase programs.
On the other hand, the following note is what Apple fanboys like to see: Apple shipped more tablets than Samsung and Amazon did combined last quarter. Link here.
While the iPad has long been the world's most popular tablet, newly
published market research helps put Apple's lead into perspective.
According to estimates shared by research firm IDC,
Apple shipped 12.9 million iPads in the second quarter of 2021. By
comparison, IDC estimated that Samsung and Amazon shipped a combined
12.3 million tablets in the quarter, suggesting that Apple shipped more
tablets than Samsung and Amazon did combined in the quarter.
iPad sales continued to surge last quarter as many people continue
to work, learn, and communicate with others remotely. According to Apple
CEO Tim Cook, the iPad had its best June quarter in nearly a decade,
with the company reporting iPad revenue of $7.4 billion in the quarter, a significant increase over $6.6 billion in the year-ago quarter.
*************************** Ted Lasso
Apple's biggest hit is an overnight success eight years in the making. Link here.
For full production profile for the four wells mentioned in this post, see this post.
Still on fire at end of week. Started a week ago, Thursday. Goal to have it "under control" by end of this week.
Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources,
briefed members of the state Industrial Commission on the fire at a
meeting on Tuesday. He said three wells are on fire, and a fourth has
been shut down to prevent it from catching fire as well.
I tried figuring out what pad this was some days ago, but was unable. Now we have another hint: a four-well pad, north of Charlson and "just south" of the lake.
Going north of Charlson to the lake, there is only one four-well pad.
Okay, I haven't found any article that tells me which pad is involved. So, I will try again. I may be way off again, and if readers convince me I'm wrong, I will remove this post or at least that part of it that is clearly wrong.
So, here goes. Again, this is just conjecture.
Graphics below:
first map: the four wells, zoomed in; one will see only four wells, but five directional/horizontal legs in this graphic;
second map: the four wells, but note that one of the directional/horizontal legs was quite short (identified with a question mark), and the "second" horizontal from this well eventually went due south and ran parallel to the other three horizontal wells. In fact this well had two long laterals; after the short lateral abandoned, the long sidetrack #1 almost made it to planned depth, but problems again, for a second sidetrack (so this well has a lateral and two sidetracks).
third map: from google maps; the location of Charlson, ND, and the location of the only four-well pad north of Charlson.
First map:
Second map:
Third map:
For full production profile for the four wells mentioned in this post, see this post.
The wells:
34655, 1,748, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-1H, Charlson, F, t8/19; cum 555K 5/21; middle Bakken; F, cum 567K 6/21;
34656, 1,131, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-2H, Charlson, F, t8/19; cum 266K 5/21; Three Forks; AL, cum 276K 6/21;
34657, 1,328, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-3H, Charlson, F, t8/19; cum 587K 5/21; middle Bakken; F, cum 618K 6/21;
34658, 1,050, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-10-4H, Charlson, F, t8/19; cum 279K 5/21; Three Forks; F, cum 288K 6/21;
Later: a reader asked what formation (Bakken, Madison, other) might be targeted below. My answer:
I have no idea but that's a great question. Based on the fact that so much focus and experience has been on the Bakken and the fact that they are injecting "rich gas" makes me think it is the middle Bakken. But I don't know.
Maybe a reader knows.
From Geoff Simon:
Denver-based Liberty Resources plans to take another run at an enhanced oil recovery project east of Tioga near Powers Lake.
The
ND Industrial Commission approved the company's application this week
to use an injection well for EOR purposes. Liberty previously worked in
cooperation with EERC and the Department of Energy on an EOR project in
its Stomping Horse Complex in Williams County. The project injected rich
gas into an existing oil-bearing formation, but was not able to build
adequate pressure to achieve the desired result.
The
project approved this week is different, according to Lynn Helms,
director of the Department of Mineral Resources. Helms said Liberty's
injection mix will include a bio-surfactant intended to improve the
lubricity of underground oil.
Original twitter post, followed by comments. The margins were so high in 2Q21 I almost missed them. They are truly off the chart. And see the comments; could be higher in 3Q21.
"Continental's dividend update is a $0.04 increase to the Company's $0.11
per share quarterly dividend paid in second quarter 2021 and triple the
Company's initial dividend paid in fourth quarter 2019. With an
approximately 1.7% annualized dividend yield1, our increased
dividend underscores the Board's and management's commitment to
returning significant cash to shareholders, demonstrates our confidence
in the quality and sustainability of our asset base and competes
strongly versus industry peers," said Bill Berry, CEO.
ENI: boosts dividend to pre-Covid level after strong 2Q21 earnings.
Shell: as discussed numerous times on the blog, Shell appears eager to exit the Permian. Now this over at SeekingAlpha:
Devon Energy and ConocoPhillips are among potential suitors studying Royal Dutch Shell's portfolio of Permian Basin oil fields, which could be worth as much as $10B in a sale.
Chevron also is among companies considering bids for the assets which adds that suitors have been invited to Shell's data room to examine information on the business.
Shell has asserted a desire to accelerate its transition to a net-zero emissions business even as it plans to appeal the recent order by a Dutch court to cut its emissions harder and faster than planned.
Natural gas:
Natural gas prices are rising across Europe and Asia due to tighter supply of the commodity, lower production in Europe, and lower exports from Russia, the Financial Times reports, noting the supply crunch may intensify in the coming weeks.
In Europe, the report notes, prices for natural gas have hit 40 euros per mWh for the first time ever, with UK gas prices at the highest in 16 years. This is equal to approximately $14 per million British thermal units. In Asia, gas prices have hit $15 per mmBtu.
I don't go to Walmart any more either, except when I do ... and yesterday, traveling cross-country and needing some particular items, I visited the local Walmart. First sign I saw: "Please be patient. We are understaffed." When one first walked in, the store looked well stocked, but it was amazing how much was sold out. Having said that, the store looked really, really in good shape.
Target, curbside business? Incredibly busy when I last stopped at Target before I started my trip.
Truck driver shortage.
Payments to stay home.
I've not yet seen the "real" story connecting all these stories. I might come back to this over the weekend.
But I have much less time to be on the blog due to traveling.
*********************** Miscellaneous
Covid-19: White House using bully pulpit to encourage companies and states to mandate vaccinations. White House staff and White House press corps not required to be vaccinated.
Homeless: Portland, OR, has banned homeless people from camping in forested parks to protect the parks from potential wildfires and prevent them from accidentally sharing blazes during a summer of drought and record-breaking heat.
************************************* Market
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Energy companies reporting great earnings today: ENB, CVX, XOM.
Everybody expected this but it was the whisper numbers that were not being reported.
Some years ago "whisper numbers" were a big thing, then sort of disappeared. I've always thought "estimates" and "consensus" numbers and results seemed to be "disconnected" for lack of a better word, and never quite understood this "stuff." One wonders: why "whisper numbers"?
But we'll take a look, later.
Robinhood: IPO -- worst ever, on record, for an IPO of this size. A lot of "retail investors" really, really got burned.
Economic data points today, most inflation numbers and consumer spending numbers were out today. Inflation growth not as strong as expected. Of the many economic indicators, for me, one of the most useless pieces of data: consumer spending.
********************************* Back to the Bakken
Just a few years ago, Mexico was focused on importing LNG to help meet
its natural gas needs, especially in parts of the country far from
Permian and other U.S. supplies. Lately though, most of the talk about
LNG in Mexico has been about liquefaction and/or exporting, not
importing and regasifying, as evidenced by a final investment decision
on the EnergÃa Costa Azul liquefaction project in Baja California and
progress on Mexico Pacific Ltd.’s liquefaction/export project in
Mexico’s Sonora state. Both projects are aimed squarely at Asian
markets, but yet another prospective LNG project “south of the border”
is targeting bunkering, transportation, and industrial markets for
natural gas along the Pacific side of Latin America — from Mexico itself
down to Ecuador. In today’s blog, we discuss plans for what could be
Mexico’s third major liquefaction project — this one aimed at both
domestic and export markets.
Tech juggernaut Amazon reported its Q2 2021 earnings after the closing bell on Thursday, missing expectations on revenue and falling short on Q3 guidance.
Here’s are the most important numbers from Amazon's report compared to analysts' expectations as compiled by Bloomberg.
Revenue: $113.08 billion versus $115.06 billion expected
EPS: $15.12 versus $12.22 expected
AWS revenue: $14.81 billion versus $14.18 billion expected
The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using
shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors
on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use
to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do
happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job,
relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think
you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt
that it is, but if it is, go to the source.
Wednesday, August 25, 2021 Three pages
The cases, not permits:
28910, MRO,
28911, Oasis,
28912, Oasis, Painted Woods/Rosebud-Bakken, six wells;
28913, Oasis,
28914, NDIC,
28915, Hess,
28916, Kraken,
28917, Citation, freshwater well,
28918, Hess, pooling,
28919, Hess, commingling
28920, Hess, commingling,
28921, Oasis, pooling,
28922, Oasis, pooling,
28923, Oasis, pooling,
Thursday, August 26, 2021 Four pages
The cases, not permits:
28924, NDIC,
28925, Resonance Exploration,
28926, Enerplus,
28927, WPX, four wells on an overlapping 640-acre unit;
28928, WPX,
28929, Hunt Oil,
28930, Hunt Oil,
28931, WPX,
28932, WPX, pooling,
28933, WPX, pooling,
28934, WPX, pooling,
28935, WPX, pooling,
28936, CLR, commingling,
28937, Ovintiv, twelve wells on an existing 1280-acre unit;
total proved reserves as of June 30, 2021, increased 106% from
year-end 2020 to 252.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, with
an associated PV-10 value of $1.69 billion at SEC Pricing, 87% of which
is proved developed
using strip pricing as of June 30, 2021, total PV-10 value was approximately $2.4 billion
the midyear reserves exclude Northern's recently announced Permian acquisition expected to close in August
SEC pricing as of June 30, 2021, was $49.78 per barrel of oil and $2.428 per MMbtu of natural gas
PDP PV-10 value alone exceeds Q1 2021 total debt by 1.5x and 2.0x at SEC pricing and strip Pricing, respectively
proved undeveloped reserves included 61.4 net drilling locations,
reflecting an average of only 12.3 net organic wells per year over the
five-year drill schedule limitation, compared to current guidance of
35.5-37.8 net wells that Northern expects to add to production during
2021
WTI: up 1.7%; up $1.23; trading at $73.62.
Gasoline demand: link here. Most recent week -- 9.3 million bpd.
**************************************** Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
$73.62
7/29/2021
07/29/2020
07/29/2019
07/29/2018
07/29/2017
Active Rigs
23
12
60
62
61
Two permits canceled:
CLR: two Clear Creek Federal permits in McKenzic County
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
31392, drl/NC, Slawson, Mauser Federal 2-18-7H, North Fork, no production data,
37198, drl/NC, Slawson, Mauser Federal 9-18-17TFH, North Fork, no production data,
37199, drl/NC, Slawson, Mauser Federal 3-18-7H, North Fork, no production data,
I'm headed into the wilderness where folks are unable to apply for Voter ID cards because fax machines are said not to exist out there. I assume if there are no fax machines, it is likely there will be no internet either.
Note: it's hard to say how much of this information is accurate. NDIC says some of its databases are offline while undergoing maintenance. Data was current from those databases prior to July 14, 2021.
Active rigs:
$72.39
7/28/2021
07/28/2020
07/28/2019
07/28/2018
07/28/2017
Active Rigs
23
12
59
62
60
No new permits.
Nine permits renewed, all Whiting:
Whiting: four Holmberg permits, one Foreman Federal permit, and one Pennington permit, all in Mountrail County;
Whiting: three Link permits in McKenzie County
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
36803, drl/NC, CLR, Florida Federal 9-11H1, Camp, no production data,
32474, drl/NC, CLR, Florida Federal 8-11H, Camp, no production data,
Now today, this story: Apple supplier TSMC readies 2 nm chips for 2024. Link here.
2 nm chips for Apple.
Intel is having trouble managing 10 nm.
From the linked article:
Apple chip supplier TSMC is planning to manufacture chips with a 2nm fabrication process by 2024.
TSMC plans to build a new factory for two-nanometer chips in Hsinchu, Taiwan.
Construction has been cleared to begin in early 2022, with equipment being installed in 2023.
..... we may tentatively expect the first 2nm Apple chips to be the "A18" or the "M5."
... it seems inevitable that the company will do so in tandem with TSMC since it is Apple's sole processor supplier with an expansive manufacturing capacity.
TSMC's manufacturing capabilities are also considerably more advanced than rival companies like Intel, which have been mired by delays and stagnation with older manufacturing processes, enabling Apple, as a major TSMC client, to maintain a competitive edge with its custom silicon chips.
Earlier this week, Intel announced plans to make chips for Qualcomm.
The A14 and M1 chip debuted in devices last year and were Apple's first chips to be manufactured with a 5nm fabrication process.
Apple is believed to have already booked an order with TSMC for 4nm custom silicon chips, which are due to begin production this year, ahead of the supplier offering 3nm chips from 2022.
2nm chips in 2024 would be another progression of this miniaturization process.
TSMC is undergoing a rapid global expansion to meet demand, building a 5nm chip facility in Arizona and expanding its 28nm factory in Nanjing, China, while also weighing up the possibility of opening new factories in Japan and Germany.
Refiners: top three US refiners expected to report first profit since pandemic began. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. But is it sustainable? LOL. From the linked article:
The second quarter of this year, however, will likely see decent
earnings results from all three largest refiners in the U.S.—Valero
Energy, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum Corporation. That's thanks
to higher fuel demand in America, increased run rates at refineries, and
rising refining margins.
These three refiners are
expected to report on Thursday and next week around $675 million in
combined net profit for the second quarter.
But this estimate has
been nearly halved over the past month—analysts expected at the end of
June $1.3 billion in combined net earnings. The lower projections in
recent days are the result of high oil prices in recent weeks, which
dent profits for refiners, as well as sliding industry margins in June.
Concerns about the resurging COVID cases
could mean that Q2 could be the 'peak profit' quarter for American
refiners this year.
For Q1, Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 all reported
losses, but their managers were upbeat about fuel demand and refining
margins going forward.
Crude oil days supply, US: drops from 27.3 days to 27.2 days. Link here.
Olympics: I am very particular about whom I follow over at twitter. It's limited to energy for the most part but having said that, it includes some very well-read folks and some very broad-ranging media outlets. I can expect at least one tweet on any given subject every day. Most remarkable: no one -- literally no one -- is tweeting about the Olympics, except the occasional "woke" Bismarck Tribune. And wow, is that editorial staff "woke"!
No scientific sense: government says folks still need to get vaccinated even if they've had the disease. So many questions.
Trucking shortage: the other day I noted that the shortage of truckers may have nothing to do with government checks keeping folk at home. This story connects a lot of dots. Reno Airport sees fuel shortage as fires draw away truckers. Dots to connect:
global warming (FWIW);
fires across the west;
shortage of truck drivers;
KMI
British natural gas: natural gas has just hit "nearly" $14 per mBtu, first time in sixteen years. For the "shoulder summer demand season," UK natural gas prices are absolutely eye-watering.
Pioneer Natural Resources: will be hit by an "almost" billion-dollar derivatives loss. I remember years ago the same thing happened to Harold Hamm and Continental Resources. Harold Hamm took Continental Resources in a different direction after that. He got back to the basics. Link to Reuters.
And worse? They did the same thing last quarter, though not quite as much: $691 million hedging loss, 1Q21. What was that definition of insanity? Oh, that's right, doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
$1 trillion infrastructure bill: will be signed before "summer recess." Trust me on this one.
Summertime sadness: back to masks. Imagine. The winter months are the severe months for "colds" and "seasonal flu." Imagine. If we're going back to masks now -- in the middle of summer -- imagine, what this winter is going to be like. I can only imagine. Do government agencies shut down again. Vote by mail only.
Back to masks: government agencies now requiring all employees mask, regardless of vaccination status.
New narrative: young people will now die from delta variant. Hunch: teachers already preparing for more remote learning this fall.
$100: that's what NYC will pay for any New Yorker who gets the vaccine.
Brazil: earlier this morning I pointed out that Brazil was soon to go from being an energy exporter to an energy importer. Now this, Brazil's June oil production was 2.903 million bopd, down 1% m/m; and get this: down 3.6% y/y.
False narrative: US crude stocks at Cushing fell last week to lowest since January 2020.
US crude oil imports, in 1,000's bpd
Canada: from -135 to 3,476
Mexico: from -176 to 621
Russia: from +143 to 449
Saudi Arabia: from +4 to 363
Brazil: from +71 to 139
Kremlin says Biden is wrong, to say that Russia only has nuclear weapons and oil. I agree with Putin. Russia also has vodka.
UK road use (all motor vehicles): now exceeds that of 2019 -- that would be pre-Covid.
***************************** Streaming: It's All About Content, Cost, and Ease of Use
Content, cost and east of use: but of the three, only content really matters. Ease of use is pretty much a non-issue any more, and, same with cost.
Hulu:
until recently I did not understand Roku. Last night I spent a bit of
time reading about Roku (a hardware business) and streaming businesses,
like Hulu, Amazon, etc. I'm about the last person one wants to listen to
when it comes to technology but, wow, I can see where the world is
headed.
Facetime: about a year ago I bought Apple's
largest desktop iMac. Our dining area is configured in such a way that
the iMac sits perfectly for Facetime calls with family. In addition, it
is absolutely perfectly placed for watching television. I use the word
"television" loosely because, yes, it's "television" as most of us
understand it, but it's not my dad's "television." It's all streaming. I
will have to ask our high school granddaughters if they and their peers
watch "television" any more, or if they watch Hulu, Roku, Disney+,
etc.
Apple TV+: I've talked about Apple TV+ many, many
times. It's a huge disappointment. So, what's better, Hulu or Roku? You
can't ask that question: the former is a software / streaming / content
entity; the latter is a hardware company that streams "things" like
Hulu. So, what's better, Hulu or something else? Quick, name a direct
competitor with Hulu.
Google: what is best streaming tv service hulu roku. Link here for a CNET answer
to that question that was posted just two days ago: best live TV
streaming service for cord-cutters. Only five make the cut: AT&T TV,
FuboTV, Hulu Plus Live TV, Sling TV, and YouTube TV.
What's missing:
Disney+, Apple TV+, Netflix. HBO Max. Pluto TV, Amazon. Yes, I know
many of these are a bit like comparing apples and oranges, but unlike
Roku none of these are hardware companies (except possibly Apple to some
extent, and maybe even Amazon, to a very small extent, if you want to
be a purist.)
The five: AT&T TV, FuboTV, Hulu Plus Live TV, Sling TV, and YouTube TV. How did CNET
rate them. It appears the panel did not want to upset any of the
companies. Depending on which metric was being compared, each of the
five won out in one category or another.
I was not surprised to see YouTube TV come out on top overall. I don't subscribe to YouTube TV but I've always had a hunch that You Tube TV would be the best.
Hulu,
which I do use, is either as good as YouTube TV or a close second; long
term, Hulu will have a huge challenge fending off YouTube TV
FuboTV? I bet it's gone or absorbed by another streaming company within five years
AT&T TV: I have no idea. CNET
says AT&T TV is best for channel flippers and sports fans. It also
also allows up to 20 devices to stream simultaneously where the others
allow only three (or two in come cases) devices to stream simultaneously
on one account; think about that -- on one account, twenty devices can
be used simultaneously.
Sling TV: it will have to change drastically (and when it does, it will have to double its subscription price) to survive.
the number of folks switching from Android phones to iPhones
services revenue
Most under-reported story: Apple is now inside Elon Musk's mind (Tesla's conference call). Does Elon know something about Apple's "car" project that the rest of us don't?
Hunch:
iPad and Mac laptops will surge in August as public schools issue iPads to first-time kindergarten/first graders entering public school;
huge re-supply for all elementary students returning to school this September;
incoming college students have spent past few months putting together tuition plans, course schedule, transportation needs, etc., but now as we come close to moving into dorms, focus will be on new laptop computers
we're going to see huge supply shortages of iPads and laptops by October, if not sooner; folks will accept whatever is left on the shelf and worry about upgrading to what they want later; if not shortages, delivery delays;
********************************* Getting Into The Weeds
Highlights from the linked articles above.
iPhones:
Apple experienced "strong double digit growth" in the number of iPhone users who were upgrading an older device or swapping to an iPhone from an Android device, Apple CEO Tim Cook said during today's earnings call covering the third fiscal quarter of 2021.
Cook said that it was the largest upgrade quarter for Q3 ever, and that the iPhone 12 upgrade cycle on the whole was "very strong." Sales of the iPhone 12 Pro and the iPhone 12 Pro Max were "particularly strong."
Going forward, Cook said that Apple feels "really good" about the
future of the iPhone because 5G penetration remains "very low" and
there's a lot of opportunity for sales growth in the 5G market. "We're
in the very early innings of 5G," Cook said. "There are only a couple
countries that are in the double digits."
Wearables:
The category brought in $8.8 billion, up 36 percent from $6.5 billion
in the year-ago quarter. According to Cook, the category set a new
all-time June quarter revenue record.
Wearables, Home, and Accessories includes the Apple Watch, AirPods, AirPods Pro, AirPods Max, HomePod, Beats headphones, and more. AirTags is in this category, and Cook said that the response to AirTag has been "enthusiastic" and "very strong."
Nearly 75 percent of customers who purchased an Apple Watch during
the quarter were new to the Apple Watch, and Apple Watch is one of the
main drivers of wearables revenue.
Services:
Apple's services category, which includes the App Store, Apple Music, Apple Pay, AppleCare, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade,
Apple Fitness+, and more, saw another quarter of incredible growth
according to Apple's earnings results for the third fiscal quarter of
2021 (second calendar quarter).
Services brought in $17.5 billion during the quarter, up 33 percent
from $13.2 billion in the year-ago quarter and up from $16.9 billion
last quarter.
Cloud services, Apple Music, advertising, video, and payments saw
all-time revenue records, while the App Store saw a new June quarter
revenue record.
During the earnings call announcing the results, Apple CFO Luca
Maestri said that Apple's install base of devices hit a new all-time
high as well, which helps drive services growth.
Apple now has more than 700 million paid subscriptions, which is up
150 million from last year, and is four times the number of
subscriptions that Apple had four years ago.
Paid accounts on digital content stores reached a new all-time high
across each geographic segment, and paid accounts increased by double
digits.
Mac and iPad:
Sales were just a bit down from the second fiscal quarter of 2021, when Apple's Macs brought in $9.1 billion in revenue. iPad
revenue was at $7.4 billion, up from $6.6 billion in the year-ago
quarter and again, just barely trailing Apple's second quarter earnings
results.
The iPad had its best June quarter in nearly a decade, while the Mac
set a new June quarter revenue record. Apple CFO Luca Maestri said the
last four quarters have been the Mac's best four quarters ever.
US crude oil in storage decreased by 4.1 million bbs;
US crude oil in storage now stands at 435.6 million bbls; 7% below the five-year average;
US
crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million bbls per day; decreased by 0.6
million bpd; averaged about 6.4 million bopd; 6.9% more than same
four-week period last year;
refiners are operating at 91.1%;
distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.1 million bbls; 7% below last week;
jet fuel supplied was up 39.4% compared to same four-week period last year;
comment:
we need to stop comparing this year's data with last year's date. We
need to start comparing this year's data with same period in 2019. But
that won't happen.
Data points that caught my attention:
huge jump in crude oil imports: California? decrease in Alaska oil? more heavy oil to balance all the US-produced light oil?
distillate fuel inventories decreased significantly; is there a heavy oil story here -- distillates and crude oil imports? I don't know?
WTI: now up ever so slightly at 0.28%; up 20 cents; trading at $71.85. Anything below $72-WTI does not excite me. Number one driver of short-term "inflation" in the US: energy or wages? For the tourist driving cross-country this summer, what will be most noticeable? Increase in prices at McDonald's or increase in prices at the gasoline pump? Lodging expenses?
Top story: benchmark European continental natural gas Dutch TTF has surged this morning to €38.75 per MWh, the highest since the contract started trading in 2005. Russia controls this market. Link here. Trump warned them.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Wells Fargo: increased; doubled from ten cents to twenty cents; link here;
Disclaimer: this is not
an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career,
travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think
you may have read here.
Humor for the day: Elizabeth Warren is worried about the "un-banked" and the "under-banked"-- those without traditional checking accounts. She says cryptocurrency would be an alternative. LOL. Folks who won't open a standard banking account have the assets to "trade" in cryptocurrency. What planet is she on?
DUOLINGO GOES PUBLIC TODAY! Sophia and I have been using Duolingo to learn Spanish the past two years. We have not missed one day of instruction. I love it. Sophia is getting tired of the daily five-minute course, but wow, she learns a lot. Just five minutes every day. Nothing irritates me more than public schools not providing ten minutes every day of Spanish in the classroom starting in kindergarten. Part of the problem for Sophia, too much repetition; she wants to go faster.
********************************* Back to the Bakken
New and expanded efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, most notably carbon
dioxide, have been making headlines globally on a daily basis for a
while now. Canada’s energy industry has been increasingly contributing
to that newsfeed this year, with two large projects announced in Alberta
that will capture, use, and sequester large volumes of CO2
generated from the oil sands as well as other sources of oil and gas
production in Western Canada. In today’s blog, we review the emissions
profile of the Canadian oil and gas sector and discuss two of the
largest carbon capture, use, and sequestration projects announced to
date.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Disclaimer: this is not
an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career,
travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think
you may have read here.
Olympics TV ratings, headlines; not selected by me; top hits from a google search:
Tokyo Olympics ratings a bust for NBC, a boost for streaming -- Los Angeles Times:
Olympic ratings plunge and star athlete stumbles heat up NBC's make-good talks with advertisers -- Variety;
NBC's streaming service Peacock slammed over its Olympics coverage -- New York Post;
Can you imagine Tom Brady having a bad first quarter in a Super Bowl, taking himself out of the game, saying his mind was not in it?
Covid-19:
the administration seems to be in panic mode; not sure if it's real or simply a "thing"; I really have no idea; but the numbers were really, really poor the past two days;
Mondays and Tuesdays are always bad, but this week -- yesterday and today -- were particularly bad;
biggest mistake in trying to get folks to get their immunizations: telling folks who are already fully vaccinated need to go back to indoor masking and the possibility of new lockdowns are back on the table; so, the cynics and under-educated will say, "why get vaccinated."
all we hear is that even the vaccinated will "get" the delta virus; so again, why get vaccinated?
************************************ Brotherly Love
