Active rigs:
| $42.36 | 8/13/2020 | 08/13/2019 | 08/13/2018 | 08/13/2017 | 08/13/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 11 | 61 | 60 | 57 | 33 |
Two new permits, #37786 - #37787, inclusive:
Five permits renewed:
List of proposed and new US LNG export terminals since the beginning of the boom, link here. One of them was Driftwood:
Now, this news today from the company's presentation via oilprice.
US crude oil supply: coming down. Now down to 35 days but still well above the bullish 21 days or less.
Hurricanes: we were told this was going to be a bad year for hurricanes. We're reaching the height of hurricane season. It does appear that the industry is rounding up when it comes to defining hurricanes. In other words, if the wind gusts/sustained winds don't quite meet criteria for a hurricane, the industry says "close enough" and calls them hurricanes. Just an observation. I'm probably wrong.
Nonsense: CNBC is again spending an hour on whether TSLA, AAPL splits make sense. What nonsense. The interesting thing is that none of these "talking heads" have any understanding of human nature, or if they do, they did not bring that up. And we move up.
AAPL: speaking of which, AAPL is up over 2%, up over $10, now trading above $460. Absolutely crazy.
By the way: I wonder if CNBC folks have the same thing to say about "reverse" stock splits. It seems that if one uses the argument that a stock split makes no difference in total value, then that would also be true of a "reverse" stock split. And yet, I'm pretty sure folks don't see a "reverse" stock split as a "neutral" event." And we move on.
Coin shortage: from a reader who has extensive experience in the industry --
Almost all the bank lobbies are closed here. Driveup banking only. So, a large merchant will have Brinks deliver a coin order and take away a deposit, same as always. But the mom and pop shops are in a bind. Normally, they'd take in a bank bag and be served at a commercial window. Now - they're faced with a pneumatic tube. Tellers can't send rolls of coin out thru a pneumatic tube and merchants are having to fold their zipper bags to even get them to fit into the carrier for deposit. Coins are too heavy. Some locations have an extendable tray that can be accessed thru the wall of the bank - but there will only be one of those per facility and the line for that is ultra long. I've seen merchants relay the tube back and forth several times because their cash and check deposits are too voluminous to fit thru a single tube. It's nuts. Wildly inconvenient for independent merchants. And what bank lobbies will reopen for masked "customers"?So - the "shortage" is malarkey. But, the message is widespread just like so much other COVID nonsense. I often use a contract Post Office at a local convenience store/gas station. I had a couple graduation gifts to mail. I tried to pay with a $50 - the clerk pointed to an official "exact change" laminated poster. He had the bills, but told me he'd have to round up - I'd lose 47 cents.
Of course, I reminded him he could just give me 47 cents in stamps. He was genuinely amazed. This is a fairly pleasant, adult man whom I've seen on multiple occasions. He wasn't swamped nor rattled. He'd bought that "exact change" mantra... hook, line and sinker. These people vote.
Coin shortage: of the twenty or so retail shops -- mostly service stations / convenience stores -- I stopped at on my recent cross-country trip -- about four stores had an exact change policy. Several stores did not have an exact change policy and when I made a joke about the issue they had no idea what I was talking about.
Apple [is said to be] developing a new subscription for virtual fitness classes, which would rival the virtual classes offered by Peloton and Nike Inc.Big stories: the two of the three big stories we were watching this week (Biden's running mate selection; college football decision; Uber/Lyft/California injuction) have been settled. The Uber/Lyft/California story is yet to be told. Probably next week.
I've broken that rule a couple of times and have not done well, reinforcing my feelings about both. But if the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result, call me insane. I now have positions in two refiners and loving it. The moat is getting wider. Marathon is closing two refineries including a huge one in California, and could close more (including the Mandan, ND, refinery). In addition to closing refineries, no one is building more refineries. They can expand and they can become more efficient but greenfield refineries? Not gonna happen. Yes, I am aware of the "Dickinson" refinery.
Brokers: folks wonder how no-commission brokers can make money when they charge no commissions. They have many other services from which they raise revenue. But think about this. AAPL will pay 82 cents/share and there are in excess of 4 billion shares outstanding. That's about $3 billion, much of which will be flowing to brokers. The average owner of AAPL shares probably leaves that cash in the account for at least a day and maybe much longer than that. It's a book entry for Schwab and certainly Schwab is making money on that money.
Stimulus bill: Schumer / Pelosi can afford to wait. If Biden/Harris win November 3, 2020, the Democrats will make sure the "lock down" continues, perhaps spreading stories that Covid-19 has actually gotten worse. The worse they can make it seem, the bigger the infrastructure and big-city bailout they can pass in January, 2021. This is not rocket science. They only lose if the GOP can convince Americans that it was the Dems that held up the stimulus program, but with the media on the Democratic side, that ain't gonna happen. Trump and the GOP will be blamed for the stalemate.
Old school. This was a no-brainer. Link to LEGO here. Be sure to watch the video and listen to the presenter who actually designed this model. Absolutely fascinating. Don't tell Sophia. It's a surprise.
AAPL target price: by the way, the target price for APPL, based on my calculations is ... drum roll ... $467 by December 31, 2020. I only needed two data points to calculate that target and I've yet to see any analyst publicly state a target price that high. If I'm correct, I will tell you the two data points. If I'm wrong, I'll conveniently forget that I posted this.
Transportation sector is on a tear. Let's see what UNP is doing: not trading yet.
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Original Post
AAPL: from a reader I'm being told that the AAPL dividend should be appearing in brokerage accounts today. Let's check some sites:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Jobless claims:
How does the market respond? Dow
futures was about 50 points negative all night/all morning. After the
jobless report: Dow futures: down 40. So, we'll see. Wow, now the Dow
futures down only 8 points; could we see the Dow go green on opening?
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Back to the Bakken
This Bakken well has just gone over 600K bbls crude oil cumulative:
These two Bakken wells on track for one million bbls crude oil cumulative and still no pump for either:
This Bakken well; just 600 bbls short of one million bbls crude oil cumulative; has been off line since late April, 2020; I assume it is back on line and will be over the one-million mark next reporting period;
Coin shortage: this is the strangest story to come out of the Wuhan flu pandemic. Over at ZeroHedge:
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin urged his Twitter followers on Tuesday to swap out their spare coins for cash at banks amid a continuing nationwide coin shortage that appears to be worsening.
If you have extra coins at home, please use them to make purchases— or deposit them at the bank or exchange them for cash. Help get coins moving! 🇺🇸
— Steven Mnuchin (@stevenmnuchin1), August 11, 2020
There's currently a shortage of pennies, nickels, dimes, and quarters caused by the coronavirus
pandemic, which led the Federal Reserve to start rationing coins in
June.
Community banks have asked customers to deposit spare change to pump more coins into circulation. Because of the shortage, major retailers have told consumers to pay in cards or exact change.
"Until coin circulation patterns return to normal, it may be more difficult for retailers and small businesses to accept cash payments," the US Mint said in late July. "For millions of Americans, cash is the only form of payment and cash transactions rely on coins to make change."
Now, before readers start rummaging through their homes, underneath sofa cushions, and under car seats for spare coins to help the country in these challenging times, there are certain coins in circulation that are worth more in scrap than face value.
Pennies from 1909-1982 are approximately 95% copper and have a metal value of about $0.0185. In this instance, once could almost double their money if they took these pennies to a scrapper than the bank. At the link, the complete list of what coins are worth in terms of face value versus metal value.
And, no, I'm not melting down my pennies.
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Peeved
AOC given one minute to speak at DNC convention. One minute. I assume once she takes the podium, she will talk as long as she wants. It's not as if the organizers are going to physically drag her off the stage.
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NBA = BLM
Updates
August 26, 2020: BLM cancels championship games for today, Wednesday, August 26, 2020, due to new police shooting. Link: https://www.foxnews.com/sports/milwaukee-bucks-boycott-game-5-orlando-magic-shooting-jacob-blake.
Original Post
Anyone watching the NBA games has noted that this league is now the #BlackLivesMatter league. Pretty amazing. I watched a bit of the Toronto Raptors - Philadelphia 76ers game last night: it looked like a "pick-up" game in an empty (and very small) high school gymnasium. For social distancing, players and staff were given assigned (and separated) seats: no one was adhering to social distancing during the game, but "in the bubble" it probably doesn't matter.
No one knows how this will play out, but "branding" is incredibly important. From brandingmag.com:
Branding is important because not only is it what makes a memorable impression on consumers but it allows your customers and clients to know what to expect from your company. It is a way of distinguishing yourself from the competitors and clarifying what it is you offer that makes you the better choice.
We know the Apple brand, the Coca-Cola brand, the ATT brand. The question with regard tothe NBA: is the NBA brand changing? It will be interesting to follow the trajectory of the announcers, once they realize they have become nothing more than announcers for a political movement.
To repeat: branding makes a memorable impression on consumers but it allows your customers and clients to know what to expect from your company.
I find it fascinating.
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Vaccine Efficacy
Quick: how many viral maladies have "we" eliminated worldwide?
Quick: how effective are modern vaccines?
I've lost interest in the pandemic, but I still occasionally post something about Wuhan flu. This was sent to me by a reader. The quote comes from an Albuquerque, NM, physician who publishes at the national level:
Regarding the risk of death from CoViD-19 in children, on August 5, 2020, President Trump said they were “almost immune.” Both the White House press corps and Politfact wrote this was a lie, that there was no evidence to support such a claim. But there is. According to official data, on August 5, 2020, 142,164 Americans had died with death attributed to CoViD-19. Of these, 45 were less than 15 years of age. This calculates to a childhood risk of death from CoViD-19 of 0.03 percent, and conversely, a safety factor for children of 99.97 percent. No vaccine ever created for any infectious illness has a protection level as high as 99.97 percent, comparable to the immunity that children seem to exhibit to CoViD-19.
By the way, there is a scientific reason why children may be less susceptible to getting infected by coronavirus in the first place. And interestingly enough, it relates back to hydroxychloroquine.
I've discussed this earlier.
Other than smallpox, "we" have not eradicated any virus. After years of research and a gazillion dollars we still do not have a vaccine for HIV/AIDs but we do have a "cocktail" to treat. That will be the same outcome for coronavirus.
The "seasonal flu" vaccine is, at best, 45% effective. We are encouraged to get the annual "seasonal flu" shot and still:
The CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
The coronavirus cocktail: red meat (as in beef) + hydroxychloroquine + doxycycline/azithromycin.
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Market
I wrote all that to say this: I don't think "the market" has factored in the fact that we won't have a meaningful vaccine outcome any time soon. The "bridge" will be treating the disease on an out-patient basis.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
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Still Unexplained
I still find it amazing that retailers have not made more of an effort to protect their property from looting.
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Stock Splits
For reasons not worth mentioning, my daily routine has changed. I haven't watched CNBC in quite some time, but I am now watching selected segments throughout the day. I find it fascinating that there is actually some good commentary. CNBC's "Squawk Box," from 5:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. CDT is okay to watch on "mute." The next segment, I don't know what it is called -- oh, here it is -- "Squawk on the Street" is my favorite segment of the day. David Faber is my favorite CNBC host and his banter with a relatively calm Jim Cramer can be quite enlightening. Love him or hate him, Jim Cramer is the Rush Limbaugh of the investing world. Joe Kernan looks bloated, tired, unhealthy compared to when I last saw him, months ago. Of the major presenters, the one I like least: Michael Santoli. Wow, he can talk a market down. LOL.
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TCM
August is "stars under the stars" or something like that. The network features one actor/actress for a 24-hour period. Yesterday, it was Lana Turner. I was quite surprised how much I enjoyed some of the movies.
It appears John Barrymore is today's featured star. I don't know him well. But look at this, wow: at 4:30 p.m. today: Bulldog Drummond Comes Back. My wife and I were introduced to the stage presentation of Bulldog Drummond decades ago (1978) in San Francisco. Wow, those were great times. At age 69 years old, I "measure" my life by different "criteria" for lack of a better word. One way I track my life is the woman with whom I shared my experiences in any give year or decade.
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Reading
I haven't done much for the past two weeks -- correct that, I haven't done any reading of consequence. I did receive my summer issue of The Claremont Review of Books yesterday. A quick look at the essays last night: not impressed.
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NYC
Vacancies hit all-time high, more than double last year's numbers. Something like 1300 apartments are empty. Apparently this is the time of the year families flock back to NYC to rent apartments to send their children to school -- weird phenomenon of which I was unaware -- and apparently that is not happening this year. Short segment on CNBC. I'm sure the story is all over the internet if interested. I'm not.
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Cars
Most interesting business story: auto dealers -- business is booming. This is amazing. Google it. There's a difference between auto manufacturers and auto dealers. The latter is booming, even if the former is not. Check out VROOM -- shares tank on quarterly miss. Wow, the numbers look bad. A reader wrote me yesterday -- perfect timing -- and then this story on CNBC this morning. From the reader yesterday, with editing:
I went to the local Ford dealership earlier today ...Speaking with Dave, the salesman who we purchased car from: I asked if the new 2021 F-pickups are in. He said not yet, one more month
Then I asked how much his sales had fallen this summer.His words: March had a good first week, the last three weeks in March, a ghost town. Things starting moving upward in April, slowly. People had looked on-line and really knew what they were looking at buying; Aprl was an "OK" month.Dave is about 60 yrs old and has sold bew and used cars for 32 years, both Chevrolets and then went to the Ford garage in town.He said that the months of June and July were by far the best months he had ever had: the most dollars worth of vehicles he has ever sold. He also indicated that the people had the most cash/checks for a partial payment of the purchases.In our same area, motor home/travel trailer/RV dealers have huge "holes" in their lots as the inventory is simply not there. And up here [in Minnesota] usually September is the large sales month for folks buying just before they go south for the winter.Tonight I spoke to one of my brothers, also here in Minnesota. He said in northern Minnesota if you want a ATV, or a side/by/side unit the only inventory left is the very, very expensive models, no low- or mid-cost units around.
Funny how I got that note from a reader yesterday and then Phil LeBeau reports the same story this morning. Amazing.
What a great blog! What great readers.
The well:
Recent production:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 6-2020 | 1 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 107 | 107 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 27 | 4357 | 5061 | 193 | 5507 | 5319 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 22 | 6004 | 5365 | 2128 | 6486 | 6337 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 0 | 84 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2019 | 19 | 572 | 676 | 53 | 570 | 388 | 53 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2019 | 30 | 766 | 656 | 103 | 1324 | 1115 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2019 | 31 | 769 | 908 | 83 | 1273 | 1032 | 25 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2019 | 30 | 840 | 881 | 120 | 1450 | 1217 | 30 |
The graphic:
Active rigs:
| $42.64 | 8/13/2020 | 08/13/2019 | 08/13/2018 | 08/13/2017 | 08/13/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 11 | 61 | 60 | 57 | 33 |
Four wells coming off confidential list -- 44 for the month; 115 for the quarter, 561 for the year:
RBN Energy: what's next for the US refining sector?
For U.S. refineries, the severe demand destruction that occurred this spring led to the worst financial performance in recent history. Not only did refiners produce less diesel, motor gasoline, and jet fuel in the second quarter than any quarter in recent memory, their refining margins were sharply lower than the historical range — a one-two punch that hit their bottom lines hard. The situation has improved somewhat this summer, but it’s still tough out there. So tough, in fact, that it’s reasonable to ask, does the coronavirus and its impacts to the energy sector signal the end of an era for refiners across the U.S.? Today, we review the decline in fuel demand and profitability in the second quarter and discuss the uncertainties refiners face in the second half of 2020 and beyond.
Cloudy: several wells from the Enerplus "Cloudy" pad are coming off line this week. These wells are tracked here.