The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 05/02/20

ND crude oil production likely to fall below 1.0 million bopd
Gas flaring to fall with oil price drop/ regulators look to tighten flaring rules
State to re-open with distancing rules; schools to remain closed through rest of school year
New Long X Bridge taking shape
ONEOK will keep its dividend despite spending cuts
DOE: Bakken crude oil no more volatile than conventional or Permian Basin oil
Regulators okay expansion of Mountrail County oil conditioning facility
Fines rack up for wind farms failing to meet deadline for new lighting
Williston waives permit fees for new home construction as housing incentive
Trenton becomes fourth ND school district approved for four-day week
In 2019, US energy production exceeded consumption for the first time in 62 years

Operations:

Operators:

EOG looking to put 61 wells on an existing 2560-acre drilling unit;

Advantaged oil:

Fracking:

Nine Point Energy with 80-stage frack on the fringe;

Natural gas:

New gas processing plant proposed near Williston;

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Looks Pretty Sparse Right Now, Ten Years After -- May 2, 2020

Link here.

History of active rigs in North Dakota at this post.

Graphics here.

Cornucopians: Maugheri was correct -- back in 2012 -- wow, incredibly prescient.

In 2005 investment banker Mathew Simmons predicted that Saudi Arabia could not increase its oil production. Since then its output has risen from nine million barrels a day to 10 million. Meanwhile, a recent report by oil executive Leonardo Maugheri, which was published by Harvard University, provides compelling evidence that a new oil boom has begun. If, like me, you are confused I am not surprised. One thing seems clear: we are not likely to run short of oil any time soon and one piece of good news is that at least some of the soothsayers now appear willing to own up to their faults.

In a significant statement, leading environmentalist George Monbiot admits: “The facts have changed, now we must change too.” Much to his credit he admits that he and his colleagues made either vague or specific predictions and in all cases were wrong. In a rather rueful admission he ends by saying: “The problem we face is not that there is too little oil but that there is too much.”

Most interesting: back in 2005 and 2012, Permian shale was not on anyone's radar scope (at least publicly).

Ten years after:

I'd Love to Change the World, Ten Years Later, Alvin Lee
From The New York Times, March 6, 2013:

Alvin Lee, whose fire-fingered guitar playing drove the British blues-rock band Ten Years After to stardom in the 1960s and early ’70s, died on Wednesday in Spain. He was 68.

He died “after unforeseen complications following a routine surgical procedure,” according to a brief post by family members on his Web site. His manager, Ron Rainey, said that Mr. Lee had been living in southern Spain for some time.

Mr. Lee was not as well known as other emerging British guitar stars of the era, including Eric Clapton, Jimmy Page, Jeff Beck and perhaps even Albert Lee, with whom he was occasionally confused (and with whom he once recorded alongside Jerry Lee Lewis). But he was among the nimblest when it came to musicianship.

On his Gibson ES-335 Mr. Lee could shift instantly from speedy single-string leads to rhythmic riffs while doing his best to sing like his American blues heroes. He grew up listening to his father’s Big Bill Broonzy and Lonnie Johnson records in Nottingham, England.

Random Update Of A Lousy XTO Well In Squaw Creek Oil Field -- Fettig -- May 2, 2020

This is an example of another well with a jump in production due to the Bakken halo effect. Unlike most other such wells, this well has been a lousy well from very beginning. Drilled back in 2010, it has produced less than 90,000 bbls of crude oil.

It has been off line for eight months, but now, it is reporting better production than ever. The 3,952 bbls in 21 days extrapolates to 5,646 bbls, which is the best month this well has ever had, except for its first full month of production back in December, 2010, when it produced 6,876 bbls over 31 days. It has never reached 4,000 bbls/month since and has barely produced all these years. Until this last month.

The well was not re-fracked. It was positively impacted by neighboring fracks. Hard to say how long this will last but the mom-and-pop mineral owners were probably pleasantly surprised.

The well:

20517, 1,392, XTO, Fettig 24-22H, Squaw Creek, t11/10; cum 89K 2/29;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	21	3952	4047	2355	5164	4585
BAKKEN	2-2020	1	0	0	0	28	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	3	275	0	2563	412	329
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	10	116	444	128	246	2
BAKKEN	6-2019	29	363	430	93	708	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	389	369	105	757	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	382	312	104	721	7

Random Update Of A Nice WPX Well In Mandaree Oil Field -- Joseph Eagle -- May 2, 2020

This is an example of another nice well with jump in production. First drilled back in 2011, this well is now almost ten years old. One would not expect a jump in production but here we go. Back in 2011, wells were drilled with EURs of 350,000 bbls. This was a very short lateral, positively impacted by neighboring daughter wells.

The well:

20517, 658, WPX, Joseph Eagle 2-19H, Mandree, t10/11; cum 305K 2/29;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	3775	3760	2048	3990	0	3417
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	4213	4205	2740	4452	0	3842
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	4568	4636	2908	4829	0	4174
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	4821	5073	3077	5097	3	4413
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	4384	3970	3643	4634	0	4008
BAKKEN	10-2019	17	1832	1797	2775	1936	179	1475
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	2	185	155	35	196	106	58
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	2075	2076	935	2278	1885	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	2116	2091	728	2238	449	1404

Hope Springs Eternal -- May 2, 2020

Million-Bbl Well Back On Line After Being Shut In For Eight Months -- May 2, 2020

The well:

17092, 3,027, Whiting, Behr 11-34H, Sanish; s4/08; produced 500,725 bbls in 591 days; inactive Jan/Feb 2015; now back on status 3/15; cum 1.104684 million bbls 3/20; off line as of 7/19; remains off line 1/20; back on line 3/20;

After being off line for eight months, this well is back on line:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	20	607	377	1023	3402	3343	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	6	189	191	31	1577	1558	2
BAKKEN	6-2019	28	903	963	164	7833	6421	1333
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	1672	1642	127	11207	10803	311

Petro-Hunt Decade-Old Well Shows 10-Fold Jump In Production -- May 2, 2020

Full production profile at this post.

16963, 423, Petro-Hunt, USA 35D-1-1H, Charlson, t12/08; cum 782K 2/20;

Production period of interest, 6,000 bbls over 22 days extrapolates to 8,187 bbls in a 30-day month; 8,187 / 766 = 10.7:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	22	6004	5365	2128	6486	6337	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	84	0	84
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	19	572	676	53	570	388	53
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	766	656	103	1324	1115	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	769	908	83	1273	1032	25

An EOG Austin Short-Lateral Goes Over One Million Bbls -- May 2, 2020

The well:

17222, 1,769, EOG, Austin 18-21H, Parshall, t9/08; cum 998K 3/20; producing over 2,000 bbls/month, this well would have hit the million-bbl mark in April, 2020! TD = 14,895 feet; open hole frack with about 2 million lbs sand;

Hess Well With Erratic Production Seems To Be Coming Back -- May 2, 2020

The well:

18218, 615, Hess, BB-Federal-151-95-0817H-1, Blue Buttes, t4/10, cum 393K 3/20;

From a previous note:

March 28, 2017: #18218; check up on production in next few months; neighboring wells recently fracked; noted that 2/17 extrapolates to 8,000 bbls/month, much more than the 2,000 to 3,000 bbls/month prior to neighboring wells being fracked. After 6/17, not much of a well; struggling; 12/17; hmmm...2/18 -- coming back? cum 393K 3/20; jump in production / halo; off-line as of 10/18 with intermittent production; off-line 1/19; remains off-line 4/19; in 5/19, 3 days of production for 76 bbls; remains off line 9/19; back on line 10/19 for 10 days; only 12 days in 11/19; off line, 12/19; six days production, 1/20; only five days, 2/20; 4,000 bbls over 27 days, 3/20;

Finally, it looks like this well is back on track. See full production profile here.

XTO To Use Wells As Injection Wells As Part Of An Enhanced Oil Recovery Pilot Operation -- May 2, 2020

This page will not be updated. I track these wells elsewhere. The post below was first posted November 6, 2019. The wells have been updated.

Update:

From the NDIC dockets for November, 2019.

Thursday, November 25, 2019 (these are cases, not permits):

Case 28131, XTO, Cedar Coulee-Bakken, to use wells located in section 33-148-96 and section 4-147-96 as injection wells for an enhanced oil recovery pilot operation; Dunn County
Case 28132, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken; to use wells located in sections 27/34-148-96 as injection wells for an enhanced oil recovery pilot operation;

Wells in Bear Creek, sections 27/34-148-96:

eleven horizontal wells:

32479, IA/2,701, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXB, middle Bakken, t7/18; cum 350K 10/19; went inactive 10/19; remains inactive 3/20;
32480, a nice well; went inactive 10/18; remains inactive 3/20;
32481, a very nice well; went inactive 11/19; remains inactive 3/20;
32499, currently inactive, 3/20; intermittent production since 11/18;
32500, a huge well; went inactive 11/19; remains inactive 3/20;

32367, a mediocre well; went inactive 11/19; remains inactive 3/20;
32366, a very good well; went inactive 11/19; remains inactive 3/20;

29673, a very good well, 500K; remains on line;
29672, a very good well, cum 421K, as of 3/20; remains on line;
18294, 341, XTO, Werre Trust 44-34H, Bear Creek, t3/10; cum 577K 3/20; remains on line;
29871, 1,529, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 44X-34D, Bear Creek, t7/15; cum 389K 3/20; remains on line;

Wells in Cedar Coulee, section 33-148-96 and section 4-147-96:

five horizontal wells:

16914, 570, XTO, Martin Federal 31X-33H, middle Bakken, t5/08; cum 345K 3/20;
25335, 2,616, XTO, Martin Federal 21X-33B, middle Bakken, t5/14; cum 415K 3/20;
25334, 2,212, XTO, Martin Federal 21X-33F, Cedar Coulee, t4/14; cum 508K 3/20;
25333, 2,791, XTO, Martin Federal 21X-33A, Cedar Coulee, t4/14; cum 380K 3/20;
25332, 1,994, XTO, Martin Federal 21X-33E, Cedar Coulee, t6/14; cum 300K 3/20;

Saturday Morning Links -- May 2, 2020

First things first: a happy belated birthday wish to Willie Nelson -- 87 years old this past week, April 29, 2020. Here are his 143 albums ranked by Texas Monthly. It's hard to believe that one of my favorite albums, "Highwayman" was only #70. I think my second all-time favorite was "Wanted! The Outlaws." It came in at #49. Wow. What a discography. Then there's "Waylon & Willie," number 11."Stardust," #3, and, it's hard to believe that the incredible "Red-Headed Stranger" came in at #2.

Kentucky Derby: postponed until September 5, 2020.

From the other blogs, linked at the sidebar at the right:

Meltdown: I blogged about this a couple of days ago; Bloomberg now writes about it and even uses the same graph I used! Saudi outlook cut to negative at Moody's as reserves tumble. Fiscal deficit will widen to more than 12% of GDP in 2020.

Meltdown: VLCC floating storage bookings hit at least 71 -- ArgusMedia. Average cost: $77,000/day but Shell may hold the record -- a six-month charter with a three-month extension option at $120,000/day for the Eliza. This tells me that Shell expects this glut to last well into 2021.

Wuhan flu: the strategies don't seem to matter. The "curve" looks the same in every country, with or without "shelter-in-place" mandates. Amazing graph at realclimatescience.

Wuhan flu: pseudo-science behind the assault on hydroxychloroquine. Now we see why. Nine of the 50 panel members have ties to the company manufacturing Remdesivir which now has approval by the FDA as a front-line drug for Wuhan flu. I always thought the sudden reversal on hydroxychloroquine was strange and suspect. The reversal happened way too quickly. Almost like something out of Hillary's war room. Of all the articles linked on this post, this might be the most interesting, most important. Later: Remdesivir is probably worthless.

Endangered no more? One endangered bumblebee species may be off the list simply by reviving a single UK garden. Over at not a lot of people know that.

Endangered? The UK grid. Same story we've talked about before. Some interesting data points at this update.

UK renewable energy: after all this time, renewable energy in the UK still accounted for only four percent of energy consumption in 2019. My pet peeve: they include hydroelectric with renewable energy. Hydroelectric is not the "renewable" energy that concerns most folks. Take out hydroelectricit and the percentage of renewable energy drops even further. Having said that, the UK has very little hydroelectricity; what little they have is mostly in Scotland.

Meanwhile, over in China: to kick start their economy following the Wuhan flu debacle, China has approved nearly 10 gigawatts of new coal-fired power generation capacity in this year's first quarter, roughly equal to the amount approved for all of last year. How much is 10 GW? To put that in perspective, the entire UK coal-fired capacity at the end of 2018 was 12 GW.

April 2020 was almost as warm at 1865: central England temperature.

NOAA: second largest 2-month temperature drop in history in northern hemisphere record, from February-to-April, 2020. This was a 0.53°C drop. In that universe of global warming, 0.53 degrees is incredibly. Algoreans are only worried anticipating a 2-degree rise in global temperature over the next 100 years. By the way, the largest 2-month drop was also in the modern industrial age: a drop of 0.69 degrees Celsius was recorded from December, 1987, to February, 1988.

Johnny Appleseed: And we close with this .... social distancing south of Fargo, ND, winter:

Mr Vern Whitten sent that to me. What a great photo. He calls it "social distancing." Vern says he took the photo a couple of years back but it must have stuck in his mind all these years. For those interested in a huge catalogue of North Dakota prints visit www.vernwhitenphotography.com.

Weather: do I hear thunder? There was no rain / thunderstorms in the forecast for today as of last week. What gives. Okay. That's better. It appears to be simply a pop-up storm. Will be out of the area by 10:00 a.m. and then no more rain all day. A high of 89° is forecast but it will be partly cloudy all day.

Beef: there were reports that America's beef and pork supply might be interrupted due to Wuhan flu. If so, we're not seeing it it in Texas yet. The local Albertson's had a special yesterday: huge sale on ribeye steak -- limiting the incredible deals to one per customer. A steak originally priced at $19.94 was priced down to $7.94.

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Saturday, May 2, 2020