Italy out of control: 769 new cases. Compare with --
China: 160
South Korea: 467
Iran: 591
US: 51; with one new death; 12 / 209 = 5.7% fatality rate
the US numbers will now start to rise very, very quickly
that's the nature of infectious diseases
more testing will be done as more and more test kits become available
quarantine is entirely voluntary (it was reported this past week that a numbskull from New Hampshire visited his physician for fever/cough; was diagnosed to have coronoavirus infection; told to quarantine at home; instead, went to a "mixer" that night for medical professionals)
huge amount of travel between Seattle/Silicon Valley and China
Deaths
With 41 new deaths today, Italy has recorded almost 30% more new deaths than China (32) today. The Chinese number is "final" for the day; the Italy number could yet rise.
Almost all EU cases can be traced back to Italy, and many cases around the world can be traced back to Italy.
****************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
$45.87
3/5/2020
03/05/2019
03/05/2018
03/05/2017
03/05/2016
Active Rigs
54
69
61
45
35
Two new permits, #37429 -- #37430, inclusive --
Operator: Hess
Field: Alkali Creek (Mountrail)
Comment:
Hess has permits for a two-well EN-Madisyn pad in Alkali Creek, section SWSE 7-154-94.
Three permits canceled:
EOG (2): two Clarks Creek permits, both in McKenzie County;
XTO: an Abby Federal permit in Dunn County
A producing well (a DUC) reported as completed: pending.
November 19, 2023: two wells just went off line, and there are a lot of area wells on confidential:
Updates
37428:
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
5-2022
22176
23127
4-2022
23399
20469
3-2022
5065
3818
36987:
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
5-2022
35899
37486
4-2022
16620
14605
3-2022
633
477
36988:
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
5-2022
14271
14903
4-2022
34269
30144
36989:
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
5-2022
30854
503
4-2022
23535
20702
36990:
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
5-2022
34512
563
4-2022
28803
34116
36991:
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
5-2022
41201
672
4-2022
39082
34377
Original Post
The permit (from the daily activity report, March 4, 2020):
37428, conf-->loc/drl-->drl/drl--> F/A, Enerplus, Cutthroat 149-94-36C-25H-TF, Phaelens Butte/Squaw Creek, Lot 4 3-148-94; 897 FNL 479 FWL; this well looks to be placed to the far west on the "Game Fish" pad; it looks like, of the seven "Game Fish" wells, four will target the Three Forks; the other three, the middle Bakken; see above, starting to report; t4/22; cum 275K 3/24;
16711, 297, Petro-Hunt, USA 1D-4-1H, 33-053-02814; Charlson, t6/08; cum 98K 1/10; according to FracFocus, no frack since the original, back in 2008, almost twelve years ago;
Previous note:
October 4, 2019: #16711; offline as of 8/19; Petro-Hunt; Charlson; remains off line 12/19;
Recent production:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
1-2020
18
13039
12395
4618
125
0
0
BAKKEN
12-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
11-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
10-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
8-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
7-2019
19
218
436
46
15
0
15
BAKKEN
6-2019
30
349
204
78
253
0
253
BAKKEN
5-2019
31
390
447
60
281
56
225
BAKKEN
4-2019
30
394
500
77
304
192
84
BAKKEN
3-2019
31
428
463
75
489
197
76
BAKKEN
2-2019
28
400
227
60
180
0
10
Note:
13,039 bbls in 18 days extrapolates to 21,732 bbls;
21,732 / 400 bbls = a 55-fold increase in production;
I'll come back to this one later.
Same thing in neighboring well, running in opposite direction. The well:
16941, 360, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Mineral Trust 7B-2-1H, Charlson, t1/09; cum 84K 1/20;
Recent production:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
1-2020
25
10235
9841
10084
168
0
0
BAKKEN
12-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
11-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
10-2019
1
13
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
8-2019
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
7-2019
19
339
456
82
131
0
131
BAKKEN
6-2019
30
552
474
167
319
0
319
Another well in the immediate area, production jumps from 200 bbls/month to 10,000 bbls/month. The well:
16693, 300, Petro-Hunt, USA 12B-2-1H, t8/08; cum 83K 1/20; from 175 bbls/month to 9,937 bbls/month, a 57-fold jump:
From an earlier note, these wells have been tracked for quite some time:
May 27, 2019: these wells all off line as of 2/19 due to
fracking activity in the area (#30911), probably others: #34055, 34056
(on line as of 10/19 -- huge well), 34058 (off line 10/19), 34059 (on line 9/19). See this link. Look at #16792 among others.
#34058, huge jump in production; #34059 - eight days of production,
9/19; and produced 4,000 bbls which extrapolates to 15,461 bbl/30-day
month; these wells are starting to come back on line; starting to
produce; huge wells, 10/19; will follow a few more months, then post; see this post.
Most of them are huge wells. They are tracked here.
State regulators rejected a permit Wednesday for a proposed wind farm in Ward and McLean counties that faced difficulties complying with a 2017 state law requiring new technology to stop turbine-topping lights from blinking bright red all night.
The Public Service Commission, in a 1-2 vote, failed to approve Southern Power’s Ruso Wind project, though commissioners left open the option of reconsidering it down the road. The company did not immediately respond to a [Bismarck] Tribune request for comment.
Wednesday’s vote marks the second time the commission has rejected a wind farm, at least in recent history. The PSC denied a permit last year for the proposed Burke County Wind project over environmental concerns, although NextEra Energy has since proposed a modified version of the wind farm.
Earlier this week TCM played the classic Robert Drew cinéma vérité documentary “Crisis: Behind a presidential commitment.”
The documentary first aired on ABC in October 1963. My only purpose is
to bring it to your attention in case you might find it of interest and
to recommend it if you haven’t seen it before.
The documentary takes us behind the scenes of the Kennedy
administration’s efforts the previous June to enforce the federal court
order desegregating the University of Alabama. The link to the
documentary accessible for a fee via YouTube (above) provides this
summary:
When Governor George Wallace literally stands in a school
building door to block the admittance of two black students, Vivian
Malone and James Hood, to the all-white University of Alabama in 1963,
President John F. Kennedy must decide whether to commit the power of the
presidency to backing racial equality. This astonishingly intimate
documentary of a key confrontation in the U.S. battle for civil rights
takes viewers inside the White House, the U.S. Justice Department, and
the Alabama governor’s mansion, candidly filming events from all sides
with cameras that follow each participant as the crisis unfolds, up
through its dramatic climax.
Weather will turn warmer today; rain will go away. Should be a great weekend.
The other day I mentioned (again) how much I enjoy the Apple Pencil (and the iPad). This morning, I will mention (again) something else I really, really enjoy: Alexa.
Alexa is absolutely incredible. Why doesn't my "smart TV" respond to voice commands? At night I ask Alexa to play "jazz" -- I never knew "jazz" could be so good. Twenty-five bucks for an Alexa and no monthly subscription, unless one wants a bit extra. We pay $8/month for unlimited music.
Hey, speaking of music, I do a lot of Uber-granddaughter driving. The driving gets tedious, but the rewards are priceless. Last night was another example. Last night while waiting to pick up Olivia from indoor soccer (due to inclement weather), I was listening to my favorite classical music radio station, every weekday night at 7:00 p.m. on 101.1 in the local DFW area. I could not believe it. I heard the backstory to "Pomp and Circumstance." Listening to Pomp and Circumstance 2 and then Pomp and Circumstance 1 was incredible. It brought back a lot of memories.
Normally, #1 is the lead-in and then #2 is the high "note" (no pun intended) of any 1-2 sequence. But not in this case. In this case, #1 is the "better" of the two. A smart conductor will play #2 first, and then follow with #1.
Here's #1:
Pomp and Circumstance, #1, Sir Edward Elgar
If this isn't just isn't amazing, I don't know what is. Tears come to my eyes thinking of all the venues I've attended where this has played. Over and over and over.
I think I mentioned this before. With my wife out of town, in addition to all driving responsibilities, I am responsible for dinner for the three granddaughters, Monday through Thursday. Wow, it's been a blast. As mentioned earlier, the hardest thing is figuring out what to have. The secret: a scheduled routine:
Monday: salmon night
Tuesday: meatless pasta night
Wednesday: salad night
Thursday: stir-fry
The entree stays the same each time, but how the entree is prepared, and the sides vary week-to-week. It would be easier if beef, chicken, and/or pork was/were allowed but meat (in general) with the exception of fish and octopus is verboten. [Sophia asks why she can have bacon at our house but not her house. LOL.]
The meal is prepared to the extent possible ahead of time, and then everything is placed on the island in the kitchen and photographed. The photograph is texted about 3:00 p.m. to granddaughters and parents so they know what to expect. What needs to be refrigerated/frozen goes back into fridge/freeze. A quick menu is sharpie-written on an 8 1/2 x 11-inch piece of paper -- a checklist so nothing is forgotten. Everything is left out on the island, and the two daughters, and their parents, can prepare what they want when they want.
For example, stir fry. The wok is left on the stove. The pot of water for the noodles is left on the stove. I put the ingredients on the island. I prepare the sauce (the best part of stir-fry) ahead of time and leave it on the island. I cut the vegetables ahead of time. And then Arianna, when she comes home from school, does the stir-fry, long after I'm gone. She loves to cook and loves it when everything is ready to go.
Once I have it on the island, I'm out of there. I have no interest in whether they eat it or not. It's there if they want it.
If I have pasta that needs to be boiled or ears of corn that need to be boiled, I place the pot of water on the stove (but don't heat the water) and all the utensils that will be needed on the island (the colander, the spaghetti spoon, etc).
The only follow-up I get is the next morning, asking each granddaughter (I drive them separately so I hear three different stores) what they would like differently the following week. The entrees stay the same but the preparation and sides will change.
Salad last night? This is what I learned. Knowing that salad might not be enough, I added a pasta for Arianna. She told me she liked 3-cheese tortellini. I couldn't find 3-cheese tortellini at the store last night so I substituted with a cheese-basil-tomato tortellini. Olivia told me that Arianna doesn't care much for tomators, so now I know. I will have to figure out an alternate to classic spaghetti sauce, and I think I have an idea. Alla carbonara. I'll add mussels just to get their attention. LOL.
I also stop by the best grocery store in town and buy various nuts for the salad (Wednesday night) and stir-fry (Thursday night) each week. The story has aisles of bulk nuts, etc, and you measure out in little zip-lock bags what you want. Incredibly inexpensive, and no waste. I buy about 50-cents worth of each of the following: pistachios (stir-free); cashews (stir-fry); peanuts (stir-fry); pumpkin seeds (salad); sunflower seeds (salad); and, walnuts (salad).
But last night, the highlight of the night? A last minute impulse buy: crusty French loaf. You know, one of those three-feet long cylinders of bread. Wow. I never knew. Olivia loves that bread. She grabbed half the loaf and took it back up to her room. Fortunately I had already sawed off a quarter of the loaf for Sophia; one of her favorite snacks: butterbrot. Something we learned in Germany. It's not too hard to prepare. LOL.
Anyway, enough of this. You get the idea. The driving begins momentarily. Actually, it already started today. I had to drive Arianna to her school at 4:45 a.m. this morning: her theater club (or is it, troupe?) is participating in regional competition and they had a bus to catch. So this morning, only two more to drive: Olivia and Sophia.
***********************************
Backyard Patio
A bit out of focus, but my resources are limited. This appears to be a juvenile.
This is the time of year we thumb through seed catalogues, but many of those seeds are available only because of the work of one of the most famous gardeners to come out of North Dakota – Fannie Mahood Heath, who was born on this day in 1864 in Wykoff, Minnesota. At the 1933 Chicago World’s Fair, a picture of Fannie was exhibited with the following title, “Fannie Mahood Heath: The Woman who Made North Dakota Flowers Famous the World Over.”
Fannie learned gardening early. Her grandmother gave Fannie her own small garden plot when she was only seven. Fannie’s father, John Mahood, had learned about the medicinal value of plants from Native Americans during the California gold rush, and the whole family loved flowering plants.
Fannie’s family moved to Grand Forks when she was 16, and a year later she married Frank Heath and homesteaded with him west of the city. Gone were the lush woodlands of her youth. Now she contended with wind, fickle rainfall and alkali soil. “We weren’t told how difficult it was going to be when we moved here,” she later said.
To protect the farm from wind, she planted lilac bushes and fir saplings, but the firs died. Heath began to study the local flora, and soon successfully circled the farm with a shelterbelt of native willows, cottonwoods and box elders in addition to her lilacs. She also studied the dirt and was the first person to neutralize alkaline soil by pouring vinegar on it until it stopped bubbling.
Many tried to discourage the Heaths, but through trail and error, they developed a flourishing yard of flowerbeds, vegetable gardens and fruit trees. Fannie corresponded with horticulturists across the country, and was soon exchanging seeds with people from around the world. Some seeds worked, but some didn’t; either way, she kept careful records
Unlike most natural gas producing jurisdictions in North America facing a
pullback in drilling and capital spending, producers in Western Canada
appear to be doing the opposite and lining up for a year of rising
production, higher average prices and additional pipeline capacity from
producing basins. In short, 2020 should be a year in which supplies in
the region mount a comeback after the dismal down year for supplies —
and prices — that characterized 2019. A good part of that supply and
pipeline capacity growth optimism has to do with a major pipeline
expansion out of the Montney Basin in northeastern British Columbia that
just recently entered service.
Dubbed the North Montney Mainline and
operated by Canada’s largest gas pipeline company, TC Energy, this vital
piece of new pipeline egress from one of the most prolific
unconventional gas basins in North America is setting up Western
Canadian gas supplies for recovery in 2020 and beyond. Today, we
continue our series with a look at what this may portend for gas
supplies this year.
Gasoline demand: record levels, link here. The lede:
At 9.5 million b/d, U.S. gasoline demand is now as high as it has ever been.
Looking forward, it is simply just assumed that gasoline and the internal combustion engine that it fuels will “go gentle into that good night” to be replaced by electric vehicles. Yet in reality, gasoline is an incumbent technology with entrenched large-scale infrastructure. Let us examine just a few of the reasons why the reports of the death of gasoline have been greatly exaggerated.
Advice: if you have time to visit only one website today, visit realclimatescience, simply the best global warming site on the web.
***********************************
Investing
US 10-year treasury drops below 1% -- is this getting anyone's attention?
Market set to drop 600 points on open this morning.
I told a reader last night that I feel like I'm driving a snow plow at 55 mph through light snow. I have a 30-year horizon for investing. Every day I wake up, I check my brokerage accounts to see if any cash has accrued through dividends; if there is any cash, I immediately add more non-energy shares to the positions I am building. We don't often get opportunities like this.
I'm still not following the market. I do what I can to avoid even broad headlines regarding the market. But I do check cash position and continue to invest.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
**************************************
Corona Virus
March 5, 2020: Italy out of control: 769 new cases. Compare with --
China: 160; an unbelievably low number;
South Korea: another 467 new cases; 5 new deaths; population: 50 million; fatality rate, 40 / 6,088 = 0.7%
Iran: out of control -- another 591 new cases; 15 new deaths; population: 80 million; fatality rate, 107 / 3,513 = 3%
Switzerland; first death; 114 total cases; 74-y/o with chronic illness; hospitalized since March 4; source of infection unknown
EU: almost all cases can be traced back to ski vacations in northern Italy
Russia: under control; only four cases; no deaths;
India: most perplexing story -- only 30 cases total, including one new case today.
Test kits: as noted earlier, the crisis exposed the CDC for what it is -- a bonehead, government-regulating bureaucracy. It turns out the #1 problem for public health officials "managing this crisis" is the lack of test kits. It turns out that the CDC controlled the entire product line and would not let states, medical schools, universities, or private companies develop these kits. And heaven forbid if an Israeli company came up with a test kit for sale in the US. This morning it is being reported that yet another state -- Texas -- has developed its own test kit. And yes, it was Trump that got this "problem" fixed. CDD funding is not the issue; parochial polices, rules, and regulations are the problem.
Test kits: we will see a huge number of "new cases" reported in the US. The mainstream media will neglect to tell us why: availability of test kits.
Double counting: something I suggested some time ago -- some cases from the Diamond Princess were indeed double counted; total number of cases dropped from 706 to 696.
Background noise: at some point, the daily statistics will become background noise as Americans learn to live (and die) with coronavirus.
LA County declares county-wide emergency: when one case was reported. And so it goes. If you declare an emergency for an infectious disease, does one need to close the theme parks and rock concerts in LA County? Just asking.
Timeline:
China identifies crisis in mid-December;
President Trump bans air travel from China, February 1, 2020
March 5, 2020: US Congress hopes to have emergency spending bill by the end of this week -- are you kidding -- it's taking this long; and that same congress wants to impose further constraints on the president to take military action when attacked by the US -- wow!
Politics
Brokered convention: odds just went to 5% chance of a brokered convention.
Voter turnout:
Bernie admits he did not get the youth-turnout he had expected
Trump scored more votes than Bernie/Biden combined in many states
Returns: two days later we still don't have all the votes counted in California. Someone pointed out:
they can't read the names off tombstones at night;
they haven't found all the warehouses where boxes of ballots are stored
Unhinged: Senator Schumer; Donna Brazile. Fox generally changes its headline/banner story about every two hours or so. Schumer was forced to apologize -- unprecedented -- for suggesting that two justices of the Supreme Court would come to great harm if they "ruled" incorrectly on an abortion case before them. He made the remarks outside the US Senate where such speech is not protected, and technically he clearly broke the law -- suggesting harm might come to US Supreme Court justices if they ruled incorrectly.
Post-mortens: when the Bernie loss is examined six months from now, two things will jump to the top:
Pocahontas cost Bernie the nomination (look at Super Tuesday); Pocahontas and Bernie combined easily defeated Biden almost everywhere (except for the Deep South) but Pocahontas took 10 - 15% of the vote in most states which let Biden take first, Bernie, second; and,
Bernie's implosion began the day he said Cuba/Fidel wasn't all bad (that's the day I blogged that Bernie just lost Florida);
Pocahontas: will suspend her campaign today; a week late, if you ask Bernie. [Later: official -- Pocahontas drops out of race; for Bernie, it came a week too late; she really blew it; gave the race to Biden.]
