Flattening The Curve -- Not The Bakken EUR Curve, But The Coronavirus Curve -- March 15, 2020

Wow, they're reading the blog.

A couple of days ago I said the numbers won't be any better two weeks from now than they are now.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

If the Waffle House closes, you know we're in DEFCON 4.

Right now, I would say we are two CNN reports telling us to remain calm before we move to DEFCON 4. Talking to my brother-in-law in California, it sounds like Texas is a relative oasis of calm.  Italy is closing in on China. That is quite remarkable, to say the least.

With only17 new cases, 43 total cases, and no deaths, it looks like Mexico may want to close the border with the US -- perhaps build a wall. LOL.

Algebra I:

If country A has 25,000 cases of coronavirus and will continue at a steady rate of 3,500 new cases each day, and country B has 75,000 cases of coronoavirus and will continue at a steady rate of 25 new cases day, how many days will it take for country A to have more cases than country B?

25,000 cases + [(3,500 cases/day) * x]  =  75,000 cases + [(25 cases/day) * x]

15 days. 

Let's check. Yup. Checks. 

Interestingly enough, using algebra II/calculus and using the "actual rate of change," country A will have a whole lot more cases than country B in less than 15 days.

Country A is increasing at a rate of 14% whereas country B is increasing at a rate of 0.03%. Not 3%; and not 0.3%, but 0.03%.

If the "rate of change" (14%vs 0.03%) remains unchanged, then it will be less than 9 days in which country A will overtake country B. (If the "rate of change" stays constant, we don't have to use calculus.)