The Narrative: Week 2 -- January 5, 2020 -- January 11, 2020

The Iranian military did all they could to prevent American casualties this past week, including pre-launch warnings, and using medieval-era ballistic missiles. Iranian efforts to protect their own citizens? Not so much. Canadian casualties. Perhaps Canadian. More likely elite Iranians with dual passports; in other words, Canadians in name only (CINOs).

Pet peeve re-posted:

All the news outlets are doing it -- from most conservative to most liberal. Even after we know the plane was shot down by a Soviet-made missile, fired by an Iranian, news outlets continue to refer to it as a "plane crash."

Using the same analogy, the general that was targeted the other day was killed in a minor fender-bender. 

Back to the Bakken.

Considering how mature the Bakken is, there was a remarkable amount of news in the Bakken this past week.

It certainly appears the biggest Bakken story was the Outrigger-XOM deal. I finally understand "separation" of NGLs, and specifically "cryogenic separation" of NGLs. The process separates out methane as a gas from the rest of the "wet gases." After methane is streamed off, re-warming whatever is left over at various temperatures will further separate gases into pure states. The "boiling point" is the temperature at which liquids turn to gas (and vice versa, at "standard pressure"):

• methane: -258.7° F
• ethane: -128.2° F
• propane: -43.6° F
• butane:  30.2° F

There's a huge gap between methane and ethane. Bring temperature down to  -130° F and the gases all turn to liquid except methane which will still stream away as a gas.

Bring the temperature back up to -120° F, and the ethane will go back into "gas" and will stream away from the rest of the wet gases.

Repeat, at -40°, and propane will return to gaseous state and stream away from butane and the other wet gases.

Note: the boiling points were taken from internet sources; the "rounded numbers" were mine, just as examples, they could be off a bit, and not necessarily what Outrigger will "use."

One would think that all things being equal this might be beneficial to mom-and-pop mineral owners in the Bakken. I don't know.

I didn't include a Platts story as a top story this week, for obvious reasons, but a reader was kind enough to comment on the story. See comments at that link. Both the reader and I think the story is an "old" story -- nothing new. But I think there's something else to note. Facts/factoids/observations:

• there are a dozen or more crude oil shale plays in the US
• the three major crude oil plays in the US right now: the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and the Permian
• the Permian is now capturing 99%+ of all media, all business stories, about US shale
• we hear very little of the Eagle Ford any more
• we hear very little, in the national news, of the Bakken any more
• it's all about the Permian
• one of the big stories coming out of the shale plays in the past year was the downspacing/infill/development story: operators are still trying to work out the best spacing
• I think most folks thought those downspacing/infill stories were coming out of all the shale plays
• it's my hunch that 99% of these stories are coming out of the Permian
• I have seen no stores about similar issues in the Bakken
• quite the contrary: if anything, Bakken operators are putting more wells closer together than ever before
• it appears that the shale plays in the US are not "equal" -- not equal at all in so many respects
• so, for me, as 2020 begins, I do not see the downspacing/infill issues in the Bakken that others are talking about -- which I think has to do with the Permian

The biggest story this past week: Mideast tensions surge; ballistic missiles are launched against US forces in Iraq; a top terrorist killed; a commercial is downed with a Soviet-made, Iranian-fired missile, killing 176; and what happens? WTI slumps below $60, barely hanging on to the 59-handle at the end of the week. Wow!

Two big stories coming out of the US this past week:

• exports surge, setting a week-over-week record; surging 30% week-over-week; and, 
• the Gulf of Mexico sets an all-time production record of 2 million bopd (about the same ballpark figure as the Bakken -- 1.5 million bopd

On another note, talking about cryogenics, I was curious:

• record wind chill temperature in North Dakota: -98° F; 
• ironically, the coldest "real-temperature" in North Dakota was recorded in the heart of the Bakken in 1936, Parshall, ND, -60° F; 

By the way, why is butane a liquid at room temperature?