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Thursday, October 17, 2019

Random Update Of An Old Well -- WPX, Kyw In Spotted Horn -- #18948 -- October 17, 2019

From an earlier note:
May 12, 2019: These wells about a mile to the west have been off line for one to two months, and are still off line, link here:
  • 18948, runs south, 1,912, WPX, Kyw 27-34H, Spotted Horn, t10/10; cum 342K 7/19 was IA, now active again in 7/19; nice jump in production;
  • 22629, runs north, 180, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15HB, Spotted Horn, t7/12; cum 400K 7/19; back on line as of 4/19; 
Let's check in on #18948:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2019319763990945101129609350
BAKKEN7-201929657361123497760606450
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20191580067061
BAKKEN12-2018001100000
BAKKEN11-201838486596036
BAKKEN10-2018317397171678550163
BAKKEN9-2018301023103113111840409
BAKKEN8-2018311184122515613700489

#22629 is just coming back on line. Only three days of production in 8/19.

MRO Reports A Huge Well In Chimney Butte; Several Neighboring Wells Remain Off Line -- October 17, 2019

Earlier note:
  • March 14, 2019: #34758 (PNC), #36167; link here; is Meredith (#36167) a replacement well for a failed Tercek well (#34758)? #36167, SI/NC, 6/19; it looks like it is now producing, as of 7/19; 
Follow up for this well:
  • 36167, 2,662, MRO, Meredith 14-24H, Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 47K over 23 days extrapolates to 62K bbls over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192347229468504920943623040433
BAKKEN7-20193206185367000

Neighboring well #17176 remains off line (IA). Several other older wells also remain off line.

Follow-Up On Three Wells Returned To Production After Neighboring Wells Fracked -- October 17, 2019

Earlier note:
  • January 10, 2019: #30090, #30091, #30092; neighboring well recently fracked. Still off line as of 6/19; both wells back on line as of 7/19; with nice production;
Follow up on these three wells. They all came back on line as of 7/19.

Production:
  • 30092, last meaningful production before going offline was 1,800 bbls/month, 4/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-201931339433762876405420831886
BAKKEN7-201927258224912684278011051601
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000

Production:
  • 30091, last meaningful production before going offline was 5,000 bbls/month, 10/16;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-201931240523963642290514081412
BAKKEN7-20192919451877363521198321208
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000

Production:
  • 30090, last meaningful production before going offline was 6,000 bbls/month, 8/17;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-201931592759024676693334553393
BAKKEN7-201928468345185009496919712921
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- October 17, 2019

Top international energy story for the week? Saudi Aramco (i.e., Prince MSB) delays the IPO at least until November, 2019, possibly December, 2019.

Climate change plans ditched. This tells me (again) that the movers and shakers know "climate change" is a scam. It's being reported that "business backlash" has forced Russia (i.e., Mr Putin) to "ditch" its climate change plans. LOL.

Oh, oh. Kazakhstan. Unplanned maintenance. Production has dropped 80,000 bopd since early October. Reuters.

Oh, oh, TransCanada declares force majeure due to global warming. Keystone Pipeline crude oil operations interrupted by massive snowstorm. PGJonline. TC Energy Corp has declared force majeure on shipments on its 590,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) Keystone oil pipeline after a snow storm hit Manitoba over the weekend, disrupting operations. The storm knocked out power to about 3-4 pump stations in Manitoba, affecting pipeline flows.

Oh, oh. Growing SUV sales wiping out any gains made by EVs. IEA link here.

Oh, oh, Rosneft (i.e., Russia, i.e., Putin) about to take control of world's largest oil reserves. It looks like it happen regardless of whether President Trump grants Chevron a waiver to continue operating in Venezuela, but if Trump's actions kick Chevron out of Venezuela, the world's largest oil reserves to go to Russia under Trump's watch. Collusion?

F. Betting the company on EVs? No link. Just a random thought.

******************************
Nothing To Do With Anything ...

.... but maybe the younger readers will enjoy this one. Headphones. As loud as you can handle it.

Tired of Toein' the Line, Rocky Burnette

Despite Huge Build, WTI Finishes Higher; Active Rigs At 60 In North Dakota -- October 17, 2019

Active rigs:

$53.9310/17/201910/17/201810/17/201710/17/201610/17/2015
Active Rigs6070583267


Two new permits, #37096 - #37097, inclusive:
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Cherry Creek (McKenzie County)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for a 2-well BW-Spring Creek pad in section 13-149-99, Cherry Creek;
    • Cherry Creek oil field is a 12-section rectangular oil field in the middle of McKenzie County
One permit canceled:
  • Bruin: a Berg permit in Williams County
Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35351, 1,124, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-3, Alger, t9/19; cum --; #17792 off line;
  • 35350, 783, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-4, Alger, t9/19; cum --;
  • 35349, 1,018, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-5, Alger, t9/19; cum --;
  • 34904, 1,469, Hess,  SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-7, Truax, t9/19; cum --;
  • 14787, 10 (no typo) -- a Madison well, Cobra oil & Gas Corp, Pederso 5, NWNE 18-158-95, Williams County, was a Duperow well drilled in 1998; cum 113K for the Duperow; now a Madison well;
  • 35981, 523, Sinclair, Uran 8-15H, Sanish, t8/19; cum 7K over 11 days;
  • 35982, 934, Sinclair, Uran 7-15H, Sanish, t8/19; cum 7K over 7 days;
  • 31470, 602, Sinclair, Uran 6-15TFH, Sanish, t8/19; cum 12K over 11 days; #17898 off line;

North Dakota Reports Yet Another Month Of Record Crude Oil Production -- August, 2019 Data

Updates

Later, 10:56 p.m. CT: see comments. A reader noted the "3 billion cfd" natural gas milestone and then provided a couple of interesting data points:
Even the oiliest wells get gassier over time. And then the wells' starting point tend to be gassier when you downspace, when you do megafracks, or when you drill the core of the play. All of which has been the trend since the price crash.

That said, the Bakken is still way oilier than most states at ~75% oil on BOE basis. TX and NM are each close to 52% oil. CA is the one major stat that is oilier at about 85% oil.
Early in the boom, I seem to recall that crude oil in the Bakken was running 95 to 98%. I was surprised to see it drop so much as a percentage; now I understand why. Thank you. Again, I learn a lot from readers. Much appreciated.

Original Post

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

I wasn't expecting this until tomorrow.

The monthly NDIC Director's Cut has been released.

August, 2019: another new all-time high -- record crude oil production for North Dakota.

Link here.

First observation for those who like reading about the Red Queen: North Dakota set a new all-time crude oil production record DESPITE the number of active wells actually decreasing from 15,954 to 15,942 -- a decrease of twelve wells.

Second observation, and I need to re-check this and we will have to watch for the final figures to be released next month, but the number of well completions in July, 2019, was 128, compared to a preliminary report of only 72 wells completed in August, 2019.  That number will definitely be revised upwards but probably not by much. That's a decline of 56 wells or 44% down from 128 -- huge.

So, North Dakota sets new crude oil production and natural gas production records despite:
  • 44% fewer completions (preliminary data); and,
  • a decrease in the number of active (producing) wells
How can that be? Regular readers know one answer. The first thing they will do is look at the number of inactive wells month-over-month; and the number of DUCs month-over-month, which is reported below.

If the preliminary numbers don't change much this shows the importance of bringing wells back on line (these are not counted as new completions, whereas DUCs are). There is some debate (at other sites) regarding initial production of DUCs vs non-DUC completions with regard to initial production but it sounds like those in the debate misunderstand the reason for DUCs; and the debate seems to be regarding Permian DUCs. I don't have statistical data to confirm my anecdotal data but it appears that DUCs in the Bakken generally demonstrate better initial production than non-DUCs. This would be very, very difficult to prove one way or the other statistically.

On another note, compare the official data with the estimates provided by a reader and shaleprofile.com two days ago:
  • shaleprofile.com predicted that North Dakota would show a 2% month-over-month increase in crude oil production; actual number, 2.2%. Shaleprofile.com right on the money
  • a reader suggested total crude oil production would be around 1.475 million bopd if one added in all North Dakota wells -- the actual number: 1.477 million bopd; the reader was spot on
  • some smart folks out there
The Director's Cut
Data For August, 2019 
North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data. 

Link here.

Crude oil production:
  • August, 2019, preliminary, 1,477,394 bopd -- new all-time high -- 
  • July, 2019, preliminary: 1,442,459 bopd; revised, final: 1,445,934 bopd
  • June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
  • month-over-month: 31,460 bopd
  • month-over-month: an increase of 2.2%
Gas production:
  • August , 2019, preliminary: 3,013,014 MCF/day, new all-time high
  • July, 2019, preliminary: 2,947,892 MCF/day; revised, final: 2,944,816 MCF/day
  • June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day
BOE, July, 2019, preliminary:
  • natural gas: 3,013,014 MCF/day = 502,085 boe
  • crude oil: 1,477,394 bopd
  • total boe, preliminary for August, 2019: 1,979,479 boepd
  • total boe for July, 2019: 1,936,655 boepd (new all-time record production)
  • month-over-month increase: 2.2% increase
Producing wells:
  • August, 2019, preliminary: 15,942 (all-time high was 15,954, July 2019)
  • July, 2019, preliminary: 15,954 (another new all-time high)
  • June, 2019, 15,752
Permitting:
  • September, 2019: 92
  • August, 2019: 127
  • July, 2019: 141
  • June, 2019: 127
Rig count:
  • Today: 60 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
  • September: 61
  • August: 62
  • July: 57
  • June: 63
Fort Berthold Reservation data partitioned out.

Completions:
  • August, 2019, preliminary: 72
  • July, 2019, preliminary: 114; revised, final: 128
  • June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
  • May, 2019, 113 (final)
Gas capture:
  • statewide, captured: 81% (up from 77% reported last month)
  • statewide, captured: 
    • August, 2019: 2,435,760 MCF/day (new all-time high)
    • previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
    • FBIR Bakken:
      July, 2019, captured: 75% (better than the 68% reported last month)
Off line, to end of June:

CLR Mountain Gap Well -- Eleven Years Old -- Production Jumps 177-Fold -- October 17, 2019

Let's divide 52,661 /  296 = 177.

This well is eleven years old.

I'm sure I've posted this one before. I'm not going to look for it. I just get such a kick out of it. Back in 2017, I wrote about this well:
  • 17100 -- CLR, IA still active; off-line; a lousy well so far;
So, how's it doing? Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192441374019531055285064248
BAKKEN7-20193199931028512974267942632674
BAKKEN6-2019301155911428147042166920775521
BAKKEN5-201931764375111216913393129890
BAKKEN4-201930113821170713664247722432563
BAKKEN3-20193113634136271492331262308590
BAKKEN2-20192815169151951489631608312440
BAKKEN1-2019311901418470173592532624534404
BAKKEN12-2018312140822114191453098529649939
BAKKEN11-2018261994719791184772916528029799
BAKKEN10-20182316490162151565521907191752445
BAKKEN9-20183025164252122623631413278813140
BAKKEN8-2018313599735753453744292442309210
BAKKEN7-20183141189414275749245918433442169
BAKKEN6-20183052661527136344257604528864326
BAKKEN5-20181726682264103645028245211007145
BAKKEN4-201856946945436137901379
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-2017221712403388880

Some readers suggest I "hide" data, so I'm sure folks are going to ask, "Well, Bruce, what was the production before 6/17?" Glad you asked:
BAKKEN5-201731296239371221166
BAKKEN4-2017302672315713712215
BAKKEN3-2017312992294818116813
BAKKEN2-2017282824605318317211
BAKKEN1-2017313272243021519619
BAKKEN12-2016293014457225620947
BAKKEN11-2016303184535523222012
BAKKEN10-2016313472226032125665
BAKKEN9-2016304224494838530085
BAKKEN8-20163147822450453181272
BAKKEN7-201631610656706084056

The well:
  • 17100, 240, CLR, Mountain Gap 31-10H, Rattlesnake Point, t6/08; cum 429K 8/19;

The Incredible Bakken -- A 13-Fold Jump In Production -- October 17, 2019

This is pretty cool. Back in 2017, I wrote about this well:
  • 17079 -- CLR, a nice well; petering out
So, let's see how this well is doing two years later.

First, the well:
  • 17079, 559, CLR, Carson Peak 44-2H, Oakdale, t6/08; cum 324K 8/19; 
Some observations:
  • this well was drilled back in 2008
  • by now, the dreaded Bakken decline could have brought this well to "inactive"
  • in fact? well, let's see
Production after I wrote that note in 2017 that this well was petering out, going from 180 bbls/month to 2,400 bbls/month (a 13-fold increase in production), and this is happening across the Bakken. The problem? Just too much to do in the Bakken.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2019311948209685323141231664
BAKKEN7-20193121602418107725321164949
BAKKEN6-20193022152032127125931377811
BAKKEN5-2019261792197510531953682940
BAKKEN4-20193023512274164223945181471
BAKKEN3-2019141925159413401237542519
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-2019002310000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-201814135014076121554604783
BAKKEN10-201831321132691073325114511381
BAKKEN9-201830280327951320282212171200
BAKKEN8-201829269523043178298813681236
BAKKEN7-201842132212518024125
BAKKEN6-2018002250000
BAKKEN5-20181511671614789809800
BAKKEN4-2018302457235912318611747114
BAKKEN3-2018312441208810517991484315
BAKKEN2-20182822442362951512150111
BAKKEN1-20183125932585107177117710
BAKKEN12-20173124932549155169416940
BAKKEN11-20173034763467982294227618
BAKKEN10-2017254332203081721720
BAKKEN9-2017301590014140
BAKKEN8-2017311792122243376
BAKKEN7-20173121123543796118

By the way, we also saw this with another Bridger well.
  • 17089, 400, CLR, Bridger 44-14H, Rattlesnake Point, t4/08; cum 374K 8/19; recent production:
Again, note the huge increase in flaring. Something is going on.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20193142574205478111580011170
BAKKEN7-2019274494411162150801207
BAKKEN6-20193097411001793292802523
BAKKEN5-201931221922772911615505736
BAKKEN4-201930254624873261669921674133
BAKKEN3-201931264425463571698165700
BAKKEN2-201928234225563547643860600
BAKKEN1-20191969970114342596240821
BAKKEN12-2018315953592382642312722419296
BAKKEN11-20183099969821142812095520175400

Small Jump In Crude Oil Production In A CLR Well But Huge Jump In Flaring -- October 17, 2019

This page will not be updated: the Bridger / Bonneville wells in Rattlesnake Point are tracked here.

A CLR Bridger well shows a small jump in production, but note the huge increase in flaring:

The well:
  • 17089, 400, CLR, Bridger 44-14H, Rattlesnake Point, t4/08; cum 374K 8/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20193142574205478111580011170
BAKKEN7-2019274494411162150801207
BAKKEN6-20193097411001793292802523
BAKKEN5-201931221922772911615505736
BAKKEN4-201930254624873261669921674133
BAKKEN3-201931264425463571698165700
BAKKEN2-201928234225563547643860600
BAKKEN1-20191969970114342596240821
BAKKEN12-2018315953592382642312722419296

Most recent sundry form, for work completed on January 17, 2019:
  • well converted from a submersible pup to a rod pump. The change was made January 17, 2019.
I find that interesting.

Would this suggest "rod pumps" are more efficient than submersible pumps?