North Dakota Reports Yet Another Month Of Record Crude Oil Production -- August, 2019 Data

Updates

Later, 10:56 p.m. CT: see comments. A reader noted the "3 billion cfd" natural gas milestone and then provided a couple of interesting data points:

Even the oiliest wells get gassier over time. And then the wells' starting point tend to be gassier when you downspace, when you do megafracks, or when you drill the core of the play. All of which has been the trend since the price crash.

That said, the Bakken is still way oilier than most states at ~75% oil on BOE basis. TX and NM are each close to 52% oil. CA is the one major stat that is oilier at about 85% oil.

Early in the boom, I seem to recall that crude oil in the Bakken was running 95 to 98%. I was surprised to see it drop so much as a percentage; now I understand why. Thank you. Again, I learn a lot from readers. Much appreciated.

Original Post

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

I wasn't expecting this until tomorrow.

The monthly NDIC Director's Cut has been released.

August, 2019: another new all-time high -- record crude oil production for North Dakota.

Link here.

First observation for those who like reading about the Red Queen: North Dakota set a new all-time crude oil production record DESPITE the number of active wells actually decreasing from 15,954 to 15,942 -- a decrease of twelve wells.

Second observation, and I need to re-check this and we will have to watch for the final figures to be released next month, but the number of well completions in July, 2019, was 128, compared to a preliminary report of only 72 wells completed in August, 2019.  That number will definitely be revised upwards but probably not by much. That's a decline of 56 wells or 44% down from 128 -- huge.

So, North Dakota sets new crude oil production and natural gas production records despite:

• 44% fewer completions (preliminary data); and,
• a decrease in the number of active (producing) wells

How can that be? Regular readers know one answer. The first thing they will do is look at the number of inactive wells month-over-month; and the number of DUCs month-over-month, which is reported below.

If the preliminary numbers don't change much this shows the importance of bringing wells back on line (these are not counted as new completions, whereas DUCs are). There is some debate (at other sites) regarding initial production of DUCs vs non-DUC completions with regard to initial production but it sounds like those in the debate misunderstand the reason for DUCs; and the debate seems to be regarding Permian DUCs. I don't have statistical data to confirm my anecdotal data but it appears that DUCs in the Bakken generally demonstrate better initial production than non-DUCs. This would be very, very difficult to prove one way or the other statistically.

On another note, compare the official data with the estimates provided by a reader and shaleprofile.com two days ago:

• shaleprofile.com predicted that North Dakota would show a 2% month-over-month increase in crude oil production; actual number, 2.2%. Shaleprofile.com right on the money
• a reader suggested total crude oil production would be around 1.475 million bopd if one added in all North Dakota wells -- the actual number: 1.477 million bopd; the reader was spot on
• some smart folks out there

The Director's Cut

Data For August, 2019 

North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data. 

Link here.

Crude oil production:

• August, 2019, preliminary, 1,477,394 bopd -- new all-time high -- 
• July, 2019, preliminary: 1,442,459 bopd; revised, final: 1,445,934 bopd
• June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
• month-over-month: 31,460 bopd
• month-over-month: an increase of 2.2%

Gas production:

• August , 2019, preliminary: 3,013,014 MCF/day, new all-time high
• July, 2019, preliminary: 2,947,892 MCF/day; revised, final: 2,944,816 MCF/day
• June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day

BOE, July, 2019, preliminary:

• natural gas: 3,013,014 MCF/day = 502,085 boe
• crude oil: 1,477,394 bopd
• total boe, preliminary for August, 2019: 1,979,479 boepd
• total boe for July, 2019: 1,936,655 boepd (new all-time record production)
• month-over-month increase: 2.2% increase

Producing wells:

• August, 2019, preliminary: 15,942 (all-time high was 15,954, July 2019)
• July, 2019, preliminary: 15,954 (another new all-time high)
• June, 2019, 15,752

Permitting:

• September, 2019: 92
• August, 2019: 127
• July, 2019: 141
• June, 2019: 127

Rig count:

• Today: 60 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
• September: 61
• August: 62
• July: 57
• June: 63

Fort Berthold Reservation data partitioned out.

Completions:

• August, 2019, preliminary: 72
• July, 2019, preliminary: 114; revised, final: 128
• June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
• May, 2019, 113 (final)

Gas capture:

• statewide, captured: 81% (up from 77% reported last month)
• statewide, captured: 
• August, 2019: 2,435,760 MCF/day (new all-time high)
• previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
• FBIR Bakken:
  July, 2019, captured: 75% (better than the 68% reported last month)

Off line, to end of June:

• DUCs: 916, down 14
• inactive well count: 1,613, down 62
• wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here;