A CLR Hereford Federal Well Is Finally Producing -- September 29, 2019

Note: since one can't click on links from the comments, I've brought these comments up here. First, from a reader:

Elm Tree is the best field in the Bakken in terms of average well cumulative, per Shaleprofile.com.

There is a lot of variation in quality by year though. Mostly getting better over time, albeit, the best year was actually a small number of wells in 2016.

Impression I have is that they have gotten better in frac jobs,but also that the 2017 infill was pretty heavy with tight spacing, fighting some of the benefit in frac improvement.

And an odd pattern of development (probably from land issues). Several years of only a few wells per year and then a load of 2017/2018 wells by CLR.

There are three operators there, CLR (101 wells), Hess (13 wells), Slawson (4 wells).

Now, my reply:

I used to track the various fields in the Bakken to help me better understand what was going on. I haven't updated most of them in a long, long time, now that I have a better feeling for them.

Here is the list of fields I have updated over the years:

• http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2013/04/fields-and-field-updates.html.

• Elm Tree is here:  http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2010/02/elm-tree-field-update.html.

For quite awhile, I tracked productivity by field, again, to give me an idea of what was going on. That was labor intensive, so I haven't done it in a long time. One can see those lists by clicking on this URL and wading through a lot of posts:

• http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/search/label/Production_Bakken_Field.

 Original Post

Wow, this is pretty cool. From an earlier note:

• September 12, 2019: #32354, 174, CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2, Elm Tree, t8/19; cum 0; has never produced anything; no frack data; API: 33-053-07430; FracFocus says fracked 3/28/17 - 4/15/17; huge frack with 12.6 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass; 8/19; still confidential, but production being posted; wow! 8/19 --producing!

Checking in on this well tonight: it is still confidential, but it is producing!

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	3505	5041

Good luck to the "mom-and-pop" mineral owners on this one! 

MRO Wells In Chimney Butte Recently Completed/Fracked -- September 29, 2019

These three wells are still being reported as DUCs, but as least one has been fracked according to FracFocus, and so I assume all three have been fracked:

• 36108,
• 36265, SI/NC, recently fracked; MRO, Dorothy 14-12TFH, Chimney Butte, t--; cum --;
• 36266,

What makes this so cool, through pure serendipity I found two good wells were recently taken off line. That often means one thing in the Bakken: neighbors being fracked. The two wells recently taken off line:

• 16908, 248, MRO, Marlin 14-12H, Chimney Butte, t3/08; cum 154K 5/19; taken off line 5/19;
• 16180, 128, MRO, Marlin 24-12H, Chimney Butte, t8/06; cum 354K 5/19; taken off line 5/19;

So, we'll check back in on these wells in a few months.

The BR Dakotan Wells Coming Back On Line -- September 29, 2019

After being off line for about a year, these wells are now coming back on line. I will update their 8/19 production when it becomes available:

January 10, 2019: #30090, #30091, #30092; neighboring well recently fracked. Still off line as of 6/19; wells back on line as of 7/19; with nice production;

One of the three wells:

• 30092, 2,664, BR, CCU Dakota 7-8-17MBH, Corral Creek, t9/15; cum 242K 7/19;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2019	27	2582	2491	2684	2780	1105	1601
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	20	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	3	149	129	2	55	46	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	65	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	16	916	980	1163	226	181	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	27	1682	1818	1859	794	717	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	1704	1829	2159	707	615	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	1758	1752	2459	429	337	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	1593	1488	2572	317	214	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	1014	790	2884	254	153	0

Futures -- Sunday Night -- September 29, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Futures don't mean a thing, but all things being equal, I'd rather see "green" than "red" any time, and futures are "green" right now -- 5:33 p.m. CT, September 29, 2019.

I've sure there have been similar periods, but it's not often one sees a market that really, really wants to take off, but is held back by uncertainty. Huge uncertainty.

Recession is just around the corner. From zerohedge a couple of days ago, "UMich confidence rebounds but democrats get more depressed."That sounds like a political cheap shot, but actually is not, surprisingly. Read on:

The preliminary UMich data showed a modest rebound in September after August's collapse and final data confirmed that trend continued into the end of the month.

UMich notes that impeachments divert the attention of the President and Congress away from economic policies, and may become conflated with partisan strategies. 

The big divergence was, once again, political as Dems confidence slumped to 72.0 vs 75.7 and Reps confidence rose to 119.5 from 112.8.

Despite the high levels of confidence, consumers have also expressed rising levels of economic uncertainty. Some of these concerns are rooted in partisanship, some due to conditions in the global economy (Brexit, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China), and some are tied to domestic economic policies. 

Trade policies have had the greatest negative impact on consumers, with a near record one-third of all consumers negatively mentioning trade policies in September when asked to explain in their own words the factors underlying their economic expectations.

And I'll bet not one respondent in a 1,000 even knew what was going in trade. I've never been called by UMich for any of their surveys.

Tesla 3Q19 sales. Wow, this will be fun to watch. Get out the popcorn. Predictions all over the board. The consensus is that Elon Musk will crush the numbers, and the shares of TSLA will surge. Not everyone agrees. From zerohedge again:

Well known Tesla analyst and skeptic, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research says in his latest note that Tesla's Q3 aggregated cars sold should fall 38.6% on a sequential basis, a result he simply refers to as "bad".

We might know as early as October 3, 2018, Friday, the numbers.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

T: ATT plans to return capital to its shareholders. I'll believe it when I see it.

Making Texas Great: EPD Will Add A Second Propane Dehydrogenation Plant At Mont Belvieu -- September 29, 2019

First things first: the Montana "Indian summer" snowstorm. 

A summer without sunspots? Very possible. This article may be re-posted later. From nextgrandminimum, September 24, 2019:

Could summer 2019 go down in history as “the summer without sunspots”? From June 21st until Sept 22nd, the sun was blank–no sunspots–more than 89% of the time. During the entire season only 6 tiny sunspots briefly popped up, often fading so quickly that readers would complain to Spaceweather.com, “you’ve labeled a sunspot that doesn’t exist!” (No, it just disappeared.) Not a single significant solar flare was detected during this period of extreme quiet. [Comment: if I understand this correctly, we are currently near the end of Solar Cycle 24; the next cycle, Cycle 25 "is slowly coming to life."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Another Petrochemical Plant In Texas

Mentioned in this post: LyondellBasell.

EPD will build a second propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant at its complex in Mont Belvieu, TX.

Propane: C3H8.

All single bonds.

So, if one is going to "dehydrogenate," one is going to remove at least one hydrogen. That will convert a molecule with all single bonds (-anes) to a molecule with at least one double bond (-enes). So what? From wiki:

Dehydrogenation is an important reaction because it converts alkanes, which are relatively inert and thus low-valued, to olefins (including alkenes), which are reactive and thus more valuable. Alkenes are precursors to aldehydes, alcohols, polymers, and aromatics. 

And propane dehydrogenation?

Propane dehydrogenation (PDH) is a process step in the production of propylene from propane. PDH is vital to the petrochemical industry: propylene is the second most important starting product in the petrochemical industry after ethylene.

So, back to the story: EPD will build a second propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant at its complex in Mont Belvieu, TX.  Data points:

• 35,000 bbls of propane daily to produce upwards of 1.65 billion lbs of polymer grade propane (propylene?) per year
• long-term contracts between EPD and LyondellBasell as the anchor customer; other customers involved
• EPD has licensed Honeywell’s UOP Oleflex propane process to produce PGP

Propylene is the raw material for plastic polypropylene, which is a common component mainly used in the automotive and textile industries, for plastic films for packaging and many other products.

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- Another Jump In Production And Not Taken Off Line Prior -- September 29, 2019

The Bakken never ceases to surprise me. Looking for something else I stumbled upon this.

The well:

• 24163, 759, Enerplus, Cirrus 149-94-33D-28H, Eagle Nest, t4/13; cum 266K 8/19; note the jump in production from 1,500 bbls/month to almost 8,000 bbls/month and this well was not taken off prior to the jump in production. Note that produced water jumped, as well as natural gas produced -- by a large amount. The most recent sundry form was from 2014 when a pump was installed. It's sister well on the same pad, #24164, did not show any change in production during the same time period.
  

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	7797	7322	7187	11696	4	11602
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	1440	1415	1077	2160	4	2066
BAKKEN	6-2019	23	965	976	744	1447	93	1289
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	1589	1734	997	2383	1330	964
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	1595	1736	1135	2393	1158	1148
BAKKEN	3-2019	28	1815	1831	1354	2722	461	2180

BR's Shenandoah Wells Have Been Updated -- September 29, 2019

Of the eight or so Shenandoah wells, BR had a problem with one of them back in 2014.

They re-drilled and completed a sidetrack for that well back in 2015. Nice result.

The results of that well, and the other wells have been updated. Some great wells.

Production "Capacity" May Be Back To Normal, But "Refining" Certainly Is Not -- September 29, 2019

Remember this from September 25, 2019?

Not so fast. Today we are learning this:

This will not be easily or quickly fixed. Just a hunch.

MSB said he would spare no expense getting this back up and running. I wonder what American companies have the service contracts to accomplish this. There's no way the Saudis are doing this themselves.

The Enerplus Daffy Duck Pad

This was an earlier Enerplus turtle pad in the Antelope-Sanish.

Now we have a second Enerplus turtle pad where Daffy Duck, Dewey Duck, Scrooge all make an appearance.

These permits were noted on the January 2, 2018 daily activity report. Most of these wells have now been drilled, completed, and are coming off the confidential list this week.

The wells on this pad:

• 20883, 724, Enerplus, Hans 20-21H, McGregory Buttes, t4/12; cum 331K 8/19; and yes, there was a jump in production;
• 34438, 619, Enerplus, Muscovy 148-93-20A-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 143K 8/19;
• 34439, 627, Enerplus, Daffy 148-93-20A-29H, 43 stages; 10.5 million lbs sand, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 149K 8/19;
• 34440, 1,084, Enerplus, Mallard 148-93-20B-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 126K 8/19;34437, 927, Enerplus, Canvasback 148-93-20B-29H, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 136K 8/19
• 34436, conf, Enerplus, Dewey 148-93-20B_29H-TF,
• 34435, conf, Enerplus, Scrooge 148-92-20B_29H-TF,
• 34434, loc, Enerplus, Pintail 148-93-20A-29H, McGregory Buttes, 
• 34433, loc, Enerplus, Scaup 148-93-20A-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes,
• 34432, loc, Enerplus, Widgeon 148-93-20A-29H, McGregory Buttes,

See this post for production profiles for selected wells and graphics.

Early production:

34435:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	21429	4204
7-2019	6622	4204
6-2019	14096	8688
5-2019	22619	15742
4-2019	12950	7950

34436: 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	7490	9250
7-2019	14570	9250
6-2019	12147	7486
5-2019	23309	16222
4-2019	6178	3793

34437:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	28118	17719
7-2019	27909	17719
6-2019	16640	10256
5-2019	39858	27740
4-2019	22716	13946

34438:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	17845	6982
7-2019	10998	6982
6-2019	26912	16587
5-2019	36509	25409
4-2019	50297	30878

34439:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	16978	18019
7-2019	28382	18019
6-2019	28674	17673
5-2019	45836	31901
4-2019	28544	17524

 34440:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	32716	21571
7-2019	33978	21571
6-2019	11201	6903
5-2019	27551	19175
4-2019	20484	12576

Off The Net

Typographical and factual errors will be sorted out later.

Comments will be posted later.

I'm off to see Sophia for the day.

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Taxes -- Nothing New Under The Sun

In order: first Caligula, then Claudius, then Nero. 

Claudius: Roman emperor from AD 41 to 54. During this period the "twelve disciples" were quite active. An apostle, but not one of the "twelve disciples," Paul probably converted to Christianity somewhere between 30 AD (CE) and 36 AD (CE). Herod Antipas (called "King Herod" in the New Testament; was never a "king") died around 39 AD (CE). His father was Herod the Great who reigned during the time Christ walked on earth. 

From wiki, :

The port at Ostia was part of Claudius' solution to the constant grain shortages that occurred in winter, after the Roman shipping season.

The other part of his solution was to insure the ships of grain merchants who were willing to risk travelling to Egypt in the off-season.

He also granted their sailors special privileges, including citizenship and exemption from the Lex Papia Poppaea, a law that regulated marriage.

In addition, he repealed the taxes that Caligula had instituted on food, and further reduced taxes on communities suffering drought or famine. 

**************************************** 

The Ideal Bakken Well -- More Common Than Unicorns -- September 29, 2019

I define the ideal well as one that pays for itself in six months and then generates free cash flow for the next 35 years.

Even better than the ideal well is the ideal Bakken well: this is a well that pays for itself in six months; generates free cash flow for the next 35 years; and, on top of all that, shows repeated jumps in production.

Example:

• 22371, 3,668, QEP/Helis, Hazel 13-34/27H, Grail, t5/13; cum 629K 8/19;

Production profile, selected:

BAKKEN	3-2019	31	12137	12104	8312	51106	39753	11060
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	10756	10931	7540	40940	26671	14048
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	17713	17810	10095	44978	38134	6584
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	20779	20597	11593	46896	39894	6736
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	15431	15396	8725	26617	21640	4785
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	17613	17688	10639	32697	27892	4614
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	18851	18669	13733	29515	24474	4862
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	21462	21566	13761	32978	27790	4981
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	27368	27564	30854	40865	35041	5621
BAKKEN	6-2018	8	9273	8709	23423	12661	9608	2809
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	113	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	23	1796	1814	801	3530	2595	629
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	2290	2382	954	4542	3366	747
BAKKEN	2-2018	25	2009	1890	839	3695	2835	536

Back in 2013 when this well was drilled and first began production, it topped out at 27,119 bbls in one 31-day period (8/13) -- and that figure was beat in 7/18 when it produced 27,368 bbls oin one 31-day period:

BAKKEN	12-2013	20	10641	10522	1492	17256	16201	945
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	16477	16446	2328	29315	29219	96
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	19697	19498	3482	28731	26208	2498
BAKKEN	9-2013	25	12217	12557	2110	18177	15748	2283
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	27119	27367	2948	45446	40294	4916
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	15559	14951	2706	44338	32397	11733
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	15522	15754	1909	41733	41733	0
BAKKEN	5-2013	5	24041	23629	2531	8896	8896	0

The QEP State Wells In Spotted Horn Have Been Updated -- September 29, 2019

The QEP State wells in Spotted Horn have been updated.

Has QEP lost its touch? Or just managing its assets? These wells are good but not great, certainly not like the "Helis Grail" wells.

The CLR Sorenson Wells In Alkali Creek

Updates

March 31, 2020:

The wells:

• 35347, 1,974, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1, Alkali Creek; t4/19; cum 239K 10/21;
  
• 35348, 1,478, CLR, Sorenson 11-16H, Alkali Creek; t4/19; cum 185K 10/21;
  

• 29669, 962, CLR, Sorenson 6-16H2, 2560-acre spacing; second bench Three Forks; 15 stages; 2.9 million lbs, sand, ceramic; Alkali Creek, t8/15; cum 166K 8/19; and, yes, when it came back on line, a bit of a production jump; cum 213K 10/21;
  

Production profiles of following wells are similar to the ones reporting below, "early production numbers."

• 30650, 1,722, CLR, Sorenson 3-16H, Alkali Creek, t5/19; cum 151K 10/21;
  
• 30649, 2,108, CLR, Sorenson 4-16H1, Alkali Creek; t5/19; cum 226K 10/21;
  
• 30648, 1,716, CLR, Sorenson 5-16H, Alkali Creek, t9/19; cum 167K 20/21;
  
• 30647, 1,431, CLR, Sorenson 7-16H2, Alkali Creek, t9/19; cum 245K 10/21;
  
• 30646, 1,957, CLR, Sorenson 8-16H, Alkali Creek, cum 304K 10/21;
• 30645, 1,563, CLR, Sorenson 9-16H1, Alkali Creek, cum 280K 10/21;

*********************************

Early Production Numbers

35348, conf, CLR, Sorenson 11-16H, Alkali Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	5761	9759
7-2019	6523	30
6-2019	21382	22943
5-2019	33777	49039
4-2019	6798	10348

35347, conf, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1, Alkali Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	22719	35272
7-2019	22042	8984
6-2019	24423	22794
5-2019	39780	54558
4-2019	12477	14551

The graphics:

If You Can't Trust Your Friends .... -- September 29, 2019

Updates

Later, 2:29 p.m. CT: it's reported that the former minister of energy, Alfalfa, has now been removed as chairman of "a mining company." His fall from grace continues.

Original Post 

Something tells me there is more to this story.

Initial Production For Confidential Wells Reporting This Week -- September 29, 2019

The definition of an ideal: a well that pays for itself in six months and then goes on to provide a revenue stream for the next 35 years.

34968, conf, CLR, Rader 10-24H, Avoca:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	30149	33814
7-2019	34042	38059

34908, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-8H, Elk:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	24019	0
7-2019	22030	20690
6-2019	22625	14394
5-2019	19568	14848
4-2019	19672	13048

35348, conf, CLR, Sorenson 11-16H,Alkali Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	5761	9759
7-2019	6523	30
6-2019	21382	22943
5-2019	33777	49039
4-2019	6798	10348

35347, conf, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1, Alkali Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	22719	35272
7-2019	22042	8984
6-2019	24423	22794
5-2019	39780	54558
4-2019	12477	14551

34759, conf, Whiting, Berger 24-20-1H, Tyrone:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2019	26423	7852
6-2019	27425	5413
5-2019	25664	16360
4-2019	25448	18266

35315, conf, CLR, Putnam 11-25HSL, East Fork:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	14136	7496
7-2019	28107	3502
4-2019	826	0

35314, conf, CLR, Putnam 10-25H1, East Fork:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	6418	113
7-2019	28944	15987
6-2019	18258	8290
4-2019	702	0

35313, conf, CLR, Putnam 9-25H, East Fork:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	7999	4054
7-2019	15834	8089
6-2019	19692	10591
5-2019	7438	992
4-2019	261	0

34762, conf, Whiting, Berger 21-15 -1TFH, Tyrone:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2019	13093	3689
6-2019	13695	3025
5-2019	14365	7591
4-2019	2013	1784

34761, conf, Whiting, Berger 24-10-1TFH, Tyrone:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2019	17720	5108
6-2019	19960	4066
5-2019	17844	11202
4-2019	14071	8793

34440, conf, Enerplus, Mallard 148-93-20B-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	32716	21571
7-2019	33978	21571
6-2019	11201	6903
5-2019	27551	19175
4-2019	20484	12576

34439, conf, Enerplus, Daffy 148-93-20A-29H, McGregory Buttes:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	16978	18019
7-2019	28382	18019
6-2019	28674	17673
5-2019	45836	31901
4-2019	28544	17524

34438, conf, Enerplus, Muscovy 148-93-20A-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	17845	6982
7-2019	10998	6982
6-2019	26912	16587
5-2019	36509	25409
4-2019	50297	30878

34437, conf, Enerplus, Canvasback 148-93-20B-29H, McGregory Buttes:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	28118	17719
7-2019	27909	17719
6-2019	16640	10256
5-2019	39858	27740
4-2019	22716	13946

35628, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-2H, Little Knife:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	12887	10239
7-2019	16331	14971
6-2019	8840	7962

35312, conf, CLR, Putnam 8-25H1, East Fork:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2019	102	0
6-2019	25651	12347
5-2019	10736	5215
4-2019	311	0
3-2019	129	0

34825, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-13H, Elk:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2019	22302	0
7-2019	21244	20115
6-2019	25085	16534
5-2019	18951	13052
4-2019	26451	16507
3-2019	1186	228