The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 09/07/19

Saturday, September 7, 2019

Nothing About The Bakken -- September 7, 2019

Updates

September 8, 2019: it appears the Indian lunar probe may have landed on the moon. Engineers have "spotted" it and are now analyzing the data. No link. Story easily found.

Original Post

How many times did the US put men on the moon and bring them back to earth?

Apparently that's more difficult to do than it seems. India, today, failed to simply land a small probe on the surface of the moon. And this is 50 years after Apollo 11, and one would assume the technology has improved since that time.

Landing on the moon has proven to be tricky, said Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, the head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi think tank.

“Since there was a deviation from the planned trajectory, the central engine could have malfunctioned. The other thing could be that the data transmission link got lost,” she said. “It could just be the communication link getting snapped but things being normal. It’s still difficult to say with certainty what could have gone wrong.”

Landing on the moon is particularly difficult because it has almost no atmosphere. That means parachutes can’t be used, so landers depend on thrusters to set them down at the proper speed and in the right place. Transmissions to and from Earth take more than a second, so the lander cannot be controlled in real time. The Indian lander was programmed to scan for a suitable spot to land and reach it automatically.

A similar Israeli mission failed earlier this year at around the same stage. As it descended to the lunar surface, it lost communications and hit the moon at too high a speed.

“These are challenging matters and it could happen even to more experienced countries,” said Ram S. Jakhu, former director of the Institute of Air and Space Law at McGill University in Montreal. “Knowing something in theory and doing it in practice is different.”

*********************************

Alfalfa Removed As Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy

Saudi Arabian energy minister is now a "royal": Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.

Seems to have a familiar sounding name.

Story here.

Hurricanes And Tropical Storms -- September 7, 2019

Idle chatter.

2019: Hurricane Dorian.

1971: Tropical Storm Doria --

Tropical Storm Doria was the costliest tropical cyclone in the 1971 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth tropical storm of the season, Doria developed from a tropical wave on August 20 to the east of the Lesser Antilles, and after five days without development it attained tropical storm status to the east of Florida. Doria turned to the north, and reached peak winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) as it was making landfall near Morehead City, North Carolina. It turned to the northeast, and moved through the Mid-Atlantic and New England as a tropical storm before becoming an extratropical storm over Maine on August 29.

The tracks of these storms practically overlap each other perfectly, as best I recall.

Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers, full concert, 1994

Random Update Of A Bruin/HRC Fort Berthold Well -- September 7, 2019

The well:

18341, 567, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-1A-12-1H, t10/11; cum 657K 7/19; off-line, 8/18; back on line, 11/18;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	2833	2679	3206	3420	1025	1364
BAKKEN	6-2019	15	1415	1632	2368	1102	537	136
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	3920	4045	3807	2334	1462	28
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	4415	4489	4074	2767	1634	269
BAKKEN	3-2019	26	3340	3275	3393	1981	342	1265
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	4891	5171	6913	3465	1140	796
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	8111	7782	10931	7920	2309	3531
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	6153	5917	14896	4607	2157	1624
BAKKEN	11-2018	22	3656	4013	7963	4256	267	2681
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	4	279	214	201	647	171	40
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	4367	4257	1847	2434	1405	445
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	2692	3048	1137	2562	1407	165
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	2611	2176	1092	3940	643	93
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	1226	1325	617	3057	831	345
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	1737	1602	1460	2486	1303	168
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	2191	2224	1773	1760	1165	216
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	2065	2072	602	2834	1603	76
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	1854	1759	1438	2163	1549	65
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	1171	1171	1074	1931	1363	358

Hubbert's Theory Revisited, September 7, 2019

This well was the subject of some notoriety when it was first reported back in 2010 or thereabouts. But that's ancient history. Full production profile at this post.

The well:

18040, 993, MRO, Arvid Bangen USA 31-18H, t8/10; cum 607K 7/19; has always flared;

Production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	9308	9406	4112	6350	898	4745
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	10524	10493	6038	7109	759	5590
BAKKEN	5-2019	24	9376	9299	8733	6308	0	5652
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	12	744	1227	119	554	214	239
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	2304	2218	405	1709	1388	6
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	2212	2215	394	1681	1119	258

Newfield's Jorgenson 1-15H Back On Line After Being Off Line For 15 Months -- September 7, 2019

A Newfield Jorgenson well in Lost Bridge has just come back on line:

17086, 560, Newfield, Jorgenson 1-15H, t11/08; cum 334K 3/18; off line as of 3/18; remains off line 5/19; just came back on line 7/19; lots of activity in the area which would explain on-again / off-again / on-again

See link at June 7, 2017; has previously been featured.

Recent production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2019	21	1193	922	1420	1564	678	729
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	22	957	1422	343	1293	0	1110
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	4687	5082	2203	4329	110	3967
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	4556	4290	2567	4119	2742	1098

Two Under-The-Radar Whiting Stenseth Wells Have Been Fracked -- September 7, 2019

This well has recently come off line:

17072, 2,843, Whiting, Stenseth Trust 11-5H, Sanish, t7/08; cum 717K 5/19; off line as of 5/19; remains off line 7/19;

It turns out two more wells in the immediate area were also taken off line recently:

21758, 293, Whiting, Oppeboen 21-5TFH, Sanish, t5/12; cum 128K 5/19; off line as of 5/19; remains off line 7/19;
21759, 368, Whiting, Oppeboen 21-5H, Sanish, t3/12; cum 331K 5/19; off line as of 5/19; remains off line 7/19;

It turns out there are two wells in the immediate area that are SI/NC:

36392, SI/NC, Whiting, Stenseth Trust 11-5HU, API: 33-061-04478, Sanish, no production data, fracked, 8/19/2019 - 8/25/2019; 3.5 million gallons of water; 88% water; very small frack;
36325, SI/NC, Whiting, Stenseth Trust 11-5-2H, API: 33-061-04455, Sanish, no production data, fracked, 8/19/2019 - 8/25/2019; 5.9 million gallons of water; 89% water; moderate frack;

Random Update Of EOG Van Hook Wells In / Around Section 25-152-91 -- September 7, 2019

This page will not be updated. These wells are tracked elsewhere.

The well:

24666, 1,913, EOG, Van Hook 126-2523H, 1920 acres; Three Forks, 57 stages; 11.4 million lbs sand; t7/13; cum 748K 7/19;

Let's see what's going on in that area.

The graphic:

The other wells in the graphic:

19518, 861, EOG, Van Hook 17-23H, Van Hook, t7/11; cum 194K 7/19; off line as of 7/19;
18504, 2,195, EOG, Van Hook 7-23H, Van Hook, t5/10; cum 599K 7/19; low production; off line much of 6/19; back on line 7/19;
24855, 1,981, EOG, Van Hook 130-2526H, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 454K 7/19; nice production continues; jump in production, 3/18;
24856, 611, EOG, Van Hook 23-2526H, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 340K 7/19; low production now;
24666, 1,913, EOG, Van Hook 126-2523H, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 748K 7/19; nice production continues;
24667, 1,173, EOG, Van Hook 19-2523H, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 585K 7/19;
17613, 690, EOG, Van Hook 2-24H, Van Hook, t7/09; cum 572K 7/19; low production now;
29056, 754, EOG, Van Hook 25-1319HH, Van Hook, t8/15; cum 285K 7/19; low production 3/19 - 6/19, but seems to be coming back
32227, conf, EOG, Van Hook 51-2523H,
32228, conf, EOG, Van Hook 53-2523H,
32229, conf, EOG, Van Hook 56-2523H,

Be sure to pay attention to the "chronologic" number of the wells. Also, see this post.

NASCAR Today -- September 7, 2019

96th career Xfinity Series win for Kyle Busch.

I honestly don't understand why a "varsity" driver continues to race with the "junior varsity."

With the number of car insurance ads, it's clear that Americans are overpaying for their car insurance.

Looks like Mars, Incorporated, owns it all: M&Ms, and Combos.

Seriously, Is Anyone Paying Attention? -- September 7, 2019

Seriously, is anyone paying attention?

Three Geoff Simon Stories From This Past Week -- North Dakota Most Dangerous State In Which To Work -- September 7, 2019

Top stories for the past week were posted earlier, but these three stories caught my interest. For additional top ND stories from Geoff Simon go to the linked post.

Bakken oil flows hit 6-month high as rail to East Coast drops, Pipeline & Gas Journal, August 22, 2019

Crude pipeline flows from North Dakota's Bakken shale field have climbed to the highest in six months after the June closure of the largest U.S. East Coast refinery cut crude-by-rail volumes, according to traders and market intelligence firm Genscape.

The diverted barrels and rising production from the third-largest U.S. shale field are helping to offset some of the decline in supplies at the main U.S. storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, and adding to crude flows to the U.S. Gulf Coast, traders said.

Crude inventories at Cushing last week dropped to 42.3 million barrels, from 52.5 million barrels in June, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Two new pipelines transporting crude from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico to the coast have reduced flows from West Texas to Cushing, traders and analysts said.

Before its June closure, Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) refinery had consumed a steady diet of about 40,000 bpd of crude transported by rail from the Bakken. Flows since the fire have stopped entirely, according to Genscape data. Bakken pipeline volumes over the past eight weeks reached as much as 980,000 bpd, utilizing more than 90% of its takeaway capacity for the first time since February. That was up from 874,000 bpd in the three weeks before the PES fire, the data showed.

"Extra flows from the Bakken help replenish Cushing storage and offset some of the impact of Permian barrels redirecting" to the Gulf Coast, one U.S. trader said. Crude production from North Dakota rose to a record 1.42 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, according to state data.

Missouri River Basin runoff second most in history, Minot Daily News, September 5, 2019;

The second highest runoff ever recorded in the Missouri River Basin was increased again this week as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers released their latest projections.

Significant rainfall has boosted the September forecast to 54.6 million acre feet of water, an increase of 1.7 maf from a month earlier.The September outlook issued by the Corps for the Missouri River Basin is 215% of average, exceeded only by the record runoff of 61.0 maf in the historic flood year of 2011.

Most of the water entering the system is occurring downstream from North Dakota, limiting the impact on water levels in Lake Sakakawea which has been declining for several weeks. Lake Sakakawea stood at 1,847.7 feet Wednesday following a peak elevation near 1,852 feet earlier this summer. Inflow into the large reservoir Tuesday was recorded at 32,000 cubic feet per second. Outflow through Garrison Dam was 46,100 cfs, an amount considerably higher than average for the season.

The release rate is scheduled to be reduced later this month before reaching an end of month rate of 42,000 cfs.

Most North Dakota worker deaths happen on the road, but the feds typically don't investigate them, Inforum, August 31, 2019. At 68%,

North Dakota had the highest percentage of its workplace deaths classified as transportation-related in the country for 2017, according to a Forum analysis of the latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor and the AFL-CIO.

Of the 38 workplace deaths counted that year in the state, 26 were transportation-related. That was compared to 40% for the U.S. and 45% in Minnesota in 2017, according to the analysis. Comment: I didn't pay a lot of attention to this article, but my first thought was this -- compared to driving, actual work in the oil patch seems to be relatively safe.

OSHA:

2017 rates

Washington, DC, construction deaths: say what? Five to six times the rate as the rest of the country. Now that seems to be a story waiting to be told.

Oil patch: from 2017 news report, 2015 data -- North Dakota remains most dangerous state to work.

OSHA investigated six work-related deaths in 2016 in North Dakota, according to state director Eric Books. So far they’ve investigated or are investigating four deaths in 2017, one oil and gas-related, a number Brooks described as historically low. OSHA measures years using the October through September fiscal calendar.