Idle Rambling, The Market -- May 6, 2019

Last week these top US economy stories:

• the most under-rated boom, expansion, economy ever; and, 
• jobs, unemployment, wages, endless rally; and,  
• best numbers ever for US Hispanics, best in decades for women; and,  
• US productivity advances at fastest rate since 2010; and, 
• private payrolls surge, blowing past estimates, biggest gain since July; and,  
• stocks are off their best four-month start in decades; and, 
• consumer spending biggest gain since 2009; and,  
• supply side of economy showing strength;

Today's swing in the market speaks volumes.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read her or think you may have read here.

SRE: will report before market opens tomorrow. Expectations: $1.68/share on sales of $3.1 billion. Last year: $1.43/share on sales of $3 billion. Also here, SeekingAlpha: $1.69/share.

DNR: will report in the a.m. before market opens; expectations: 9 cents/share.

FANG: reports after tomorrow's close; $1.38.

How relevant is OPEC? Headlines that all-out war in the Mideast was about to break out and oil hardly moved. Tea leaves suggest Russia will maintain reduced production or even cut a bit more.

Leaked? One has to ask why? When we "played" war games at Air War College, we "gamed" intelligence "leaks" to the press. This leak? I think it's to let Iran know that "we" know what they are "thinking." Maybe that will be enough to make them "think twice." From The WSJ this evening --

Unusually specific intelligence reports about fresh Iranian threats to American forces in the Middle East triggered a request by the U.S. military command in the region for additional assistance as a deterrent against possible aggression.

Military uniform: see this article on the new US Army uniform. This is what caught my eye:
the Army plans to roll out the new uniforms to all soldiers starting in 2020. Soldiers will even be given the option to buy a retro-styled leather bomber jacket to go with the uniform. The US Air Force did that several years ago but the jackets were only authorized for a subset of officers. It's possible the Air Force bomber/fighter jacket program has been expanded. So many great memories.

Interest rates: by the way, did you all see interest rates fell today? Exactly what Trump has been asking for .... and the Fed won't help out. More than one way to skin a cat, as they say.

Sinclair Renews Sixteen Permits; Three Other Operators With Seven New Permits -- May 6, 2019

Active rigs:

$62.34	5/6/2019	05/06/2018	05/06/2017	05/06/2016	05/06/2015
Active Rigs	62	62	49	27	85

Seven new permits:

• Operators: XTO (4); Rimrock (2); Whiting
• Fields: Capa (Williams); South Fork (Dunn); Sanish (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• XTO has permits for a 4-well Linda pad in section 22-155-95, Capa oil field;
• Rimrock has permits for a Skunk Creek pad in section 2-148-93, South Fork oild field;
• Whiting has a permit for a single Lindseth well in lot 4/section 1-154-92, Sanish oil field;

Sixteen permits renewed, all by one operator, and all in McKenzie County:

• Sinclair: two Diamond permits; six Forest USA permits; two Horovitz permits; and, six Yauch permits

Who Wudda Thought? WTI Much Cheaper Than Light Sweet Malaysian Kimanis Crude -- May 6, 2019

From twitter this morning. Who wudda thought.

This can't be good news for Malaysia.

Non-Bakken Stuff -- May 6, 2019

Fake news?

Spot on! It's been my contention for quite some time that the "southern surge" will work out just fine. I'm not saying that it's right way of doing things, but the end-game is not all that bad. The US needs a lot more sub-$15/hour employees. Today, this headline:

The US allows 30,000 more visas for seasonal workers. 

Whoo-hoo!

Polls -- 2020 Democrat presidential nomination, link here:

• Biden widens lead; pretty much at expense of Bernie; others maintain
• Bernie fading; at 16%
• Pocahontas - Kamala - Buttigieg: 8% at best
• Beto: 5%
• Booker: 2%
• Amy gets a lot of press; not much polling (1.6%)

Oasis Reports A Huge Aagvik Well In The Banks; Over 325K BOE In Less Than Five Months; Also, Huge "Halo" Effect -- May 6, 2019

The well:

• 34037, 1,787, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 3BX, 50 stages; 9.9 million bls; Banks, t11/18; cum 219K 3/19; 

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	31769	32260	27378	86655	83927	2406
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	43806	43880	26985	140691	137960	2440
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	53601	53782	33616	158050	143823	13905
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	59173	59019	41729	147683	100860	46501
BAKKEN	11-2018	23	31025	30408	32607	105108	28130	76739

Total production:

• MCF: 638,187 MCF = 106,347 boe
• crude oil: 219,374 bbls
• = 325,721 boe in less than 5 months

From the file report:

• 8 miles north of Watford City, ND
• fourth of five wells to be drilled north on this pad
• the pad is set up as a 1280-acre spacing unit
• target: middle Bakken
• spud; then re-entered on April 2, 2017 (sic); most likely a typo, should be "2018"?
• problems with the vertical; hole cemented back, and sidetracked
• this sidetrack was deemed a failure
• sidetracked again; this time successful
• curved completed in 11.5 drilling hours
• successfully deconflicted other wellbores in the area; lower Bakken shale
• this horizontal was calculated to be about 7 feet TVD from another existing wellbore
• reached TD on April 18, 2018
• drilled from surface casing to total depth in 16 days
• wellbore in the desired target interval for 64% within target
• over/under passes were required to avoid hitting Aagvik 1-35H and the Lundeen 4-26H
• no shale strikes

So, how did the Aagvik 1-35H and Lundeen 4-26H do?

The Lundeen 4-26H is still off-line. Will check back on this well in a few months.

But look a tthe Aagvik 1-35H that runs diagonally "across" the new Aagvik wells,

• 17986, 501, Oasis, Aagvik 1-35H, 33-053-03008, Banks, t12/09; cum 213K 3/19; FracFocus, not re-fracked; full production profile at this post; huge "halo" effect; better than the "initial" production; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	14517	14326	11035	46044	45734	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	13631	13616	10792	42137	35242	6615
BAKKEN	1-2019	7	3680	3356	3350	9811	5931	3810
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	24	470	559	100	1028	756	32
BAKKEN	6-2018	20	526	587	0	1274	1052	22
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	15	354	291	190	942	775	17
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	816	869	180	2176	1842	24
BAKKEN	2-2018	21	576	600	0	1449	1239	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	785	899	240	1855	1545	0

When I see things like this in the Bakken, I still find it amazing that companies like SM Energy exited the Bakken to go elsewhere. What were they thinking?

Another Phenomenal Bruin Fort Berthold Well ; 140K In Less Than Five Months -- May 6, 2019

The well:

• 29135, 1,958, Bruin, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-6H, McGregory Buttes, t11/18; cum 141K 3/19; 

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	29802	29665	29013	49722	9980	32711
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	32908	33354	40011	32214	16475	15627
BAKKEN	1-2019	20	15543	14542	28888	15595	7869	7654
BAKKEN	12-2018	23	22597	23500	26566	20410	14465	5872
BAKKEN	11-2018	23	39710	38807	48983	32355	18969	13274
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Top Story In Paris Over The Weekend -- HIgh Gasoline Prices -- May 6, 2019

From a reader after I posted the graphic below:

France, 1Q19 -- GDP 0.3%; current unemployment 8%; gasoline priced over $5.00/gallon.

The US left wants the US to be like the EU. Need I say more?

 I filled gas Friday at Fleet Farm in Fargo. Price was $2.51.9 with 4 cent discount. Gas retailers have access to three pipelines in Fargo. Competition.

 *******************************

Eleven Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- May 6, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have reader he.

Note: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Fitzsimmons: over at SeekingAlpha -- Enbridge has 30% upside.

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today -- Monday, May 6, 2019: 19 wells for the month; 114 wells for the quarter

• 35200, 2,194, WPX, North Mabel 2-35HS, Mandaree, t3/19; cum --;
• 32511, 220, BR, CCU Mainstreeter 6-1-25MBH, Corral Creek, t3/19; cum --;
• 29135, 1,958, Bruin, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-6H, McGregory Buttes, t11/18; cum 141k 3/19; see production data here;

Sunday, May 5, 2019: 16 wells for the month; 111 wells for the quarter

• 35201, 2,396, WPX, North Mabel 2-35HB, Mandaree, t3/19; cum 19K 27 days;
• 35006, SI/NC, Hess, CA-Ferguson Smith-155-95-3031H-5, Capa, no production daa,
• 34427, 773, Oasis, Martin 5302 11-4 2B, Rosebud, t11/18; cum 91K 3/19;
• 34040, 613, Oasis, Aagik 5298 41-35 6T, Banks, t11/18; cum 100K 3/19;
• 34039, 733, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 5B, Banks, t11/18; cum 122K 3/19;
• 34037, 1,787, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 3BX, Banks, t11/18; cum 219K 3/19; over 325K in less than five months;

Saturday, May 4, 2019: 10 wells for the month; 105 wells for the quarter

• 35203, 2,615, WPX, North Mabel 2-35HW, Mandaree, t3/19; cum --;
• 35007, SI/NC, Hess, CA-Ferguson Smith-155-95-3031H-6, Capa, no production data,

The Aagvik wells are tracked here.

Active rigs:

$61.34	5/6/2019	05/06/2018	05/06/2017	05/06/2016	05/06/2015
Active Rigs	64	62	49	27	85

RBN Energy: re-contracting issues for older Permian crude pipelines.

Old age and treachery will always beat youth and exuberance. So the saying goes, and it often holds true for midstream projects as well as people. Many times we’ve written that existing pipe in the ground beats new pipeline projects; it’s frequently easier and faster to expand the capacity of an older pipe than it is to build an entirely new pipeline. But eventually, contracts on these old pipelines expire, and as they do, shippers may have new, more attractive options — maybe proposed new pipes offer better connections to gathering systems, the ability to segregate batches of crude oil, and/or access to more desirable markets.

Most importantly, they probably are willing to charge a lower tariff. In the Permian, we’ve seen a slew of new pipelines advance to construction by promising lower and lower shipping costs to move crude from West Texas to the Gulf Coast. Today, we look at how older pipelines’ re-contracting efforts will be affected by their competitors’ lower tariffs and operational advantages.

Existing Permian pipelines, from RBN Energy: