The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 05/02/19

Thursday, May 2, 2019

Potatoes -- May 2, 2019

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Exactly What Else Is Solar / Wind Energy Being Used For?

Only 56% of wind / solar power used to generate electricity? Maybe I'm mis-reading this. Wouldn't be the first time I've mis-read something.

EOG -- 1Q19-- Look How Fast EOG Is Building Its Export Capacity

Outstanding 1Q19. Data points from press release:

raises dividend 31 percent: to 28.75 cents/share, payable in July, 2019
increased crude oil production 20 percent yoy; exceeded target
CAPEX below target; guidance for FY19 CAPEX unchanged
reduced per-unit cash operating costs by 8% yoy; beat targets
achieved reductions in well costs and on-track to reach 5% reduction goal
established significant crude oi export capacity

2020: 100,000 bopd
2022: 250,000 bopd

More data:

1Q19: $1.10; adjusted: $1.19/share;
1Q18: $1.10; adjusted: $1.19/share;

net income

1Q19: $635 million
1Q18: $639 million

net cash from operating activities: $1.6 billion
discretionary cash flow: $1.9 billion
all this despite a 13% drop in the average WTI price compared to same period last year

EOG was the first to build a CBR terminal in the Bakken. Just saying.

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Royal Dutch Shell

Royal indeed!

One of the last supermajors to report 1Q19 earnings. Data points:

better-than-expected results
natural gas businesses offset weak oil prices and depressed refining margins
"net profit": $5.3 billion vs $4.5 billion forecast -- huge beat
cash flow from operating activities fell 9%
free cash flow dropped from $4.178 billion (1Q18) to $4 billion in 1Q19
Shell announced its next tranche of share buyback program; will repurchase up to $2.75 billion worth of shares (compare with $75 billion in Apple, Inc's program)

intends to buy back at least $25 billion of its shares by end of 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Schadenfreude -- May 2, 2019

Updates

May 8, 2019: BC prime minster whinging about high gasoline prices.

May 5, 2019: 24-hour update.

Original Post

Schadenfreude: Vancouver, BC, hit with record gasoline prices. And BC folks love their gas-guzzling SUVs. From Bloomberg:

unless you've been living under the Geico Rock, you know the backstory ...
bragging rights: Vancouver, BC, now has the highest retail gasoline on record for a major North American metro -- according to GasBuddy --
Vancouver, BC: $4.80/gallon

Los Angeles, CA: $4/gallon (traditionally one of the most expensive in US markets)

a series of refinery shutdowns along the West Coast of North American have sent pump prices surging from San Diego to Seattle. But Vancouver was hit hardest
the blocked pipeline expansion: prevents 50,000 bbls of gasoline and diesel to get to the Vancouver area on a daily basis
Vancouver;

Canada's 3rd largest city
has just one 52,000-bbl-a-day refinery
must rely on limited gasoline shipments across the Rocky Mountains from Alberta as well as imports from fuel plants in Washington state
taxes: add to the problem; 50 Canadian cents/liter

double whammy: some of the highest house prices; some of the lowest wages of Canada's biggest cities

The best part of the story. Does this sound like President Obama? BC's Premier John Hogan, replying to $4.80 gasoline and the blocked TransMountain Pipeline:

“There is no magic endless supply of refined gasoline products in Alberta or Washington state or, for that matter, anywhere else in an area that would allow us to see more refined product come here,” Horgan said in parliament last week, when asked about the pipeline project.

We can't simply drill our way to lower prices. -- President Obama

By the way, even if the pipeline is approved today, and "they" start building tonight, the price of gasoline is not going to drop any time soon.

#1 industry in BC? Tourism? I don't know but I doubt a lot of Americans want to visit high crime city with high-priced gasoline.

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On The Other Side Of The World

Saudi Arabia: apparently Saudi Arabia's oil production has dipped to 9.5 million bopd but the kingdom is also using record low amounts of oil for direct electricity production. Source: twitter.

WTI Closes Below $62 -- BR With Four New Bakken Permits -- May 2, 2019

Updates

May 3, 2019: for fans of Alex Trabek (?), see first comment -- English equivalent of "schadenfreude" = epicaricacy.

Original Post

WTI: gee, weren't we just talking about $80-oil last month, maybe two weeks ago. Today, WTI closed down 3%; lost almost $2.00/bbl, closing at $61.64.

WTI did fall below $61 during Thursday trading according to Rigzone.

News? I didn't watch the news today. I suppose the drop in the price of WTI could be due to the huge build in US crude oil inventories, but having said that, with all the geopolitcal news it's hard to understand why WTI dropped this much. Not knowing anything in the news it just validates how irrelevant OPEC has become, and how big the US shale revolution is. It's also possible, those Iranian sanctions were again "watered down." Let's check twitter:

crudehead: "the EIA's supply adjustment is indeed the devil you know" -- linking an HFI Research report

Bad news for:

most Permian players
all Permian players who got in late/overpaid
OPEC
Saudi Arabia
Russia

Gasoline demand: most recent data not particularly reassuring:

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

	5/2/2019	05/02/2018	05/02/2017	05/02/2016	05/02/2015
Active Rigs	63	60	49	29	86

Four new permits:

Operator: BR
Field: Elidah (McKenzie)
Comments: BR has four permits for a Sandie/Shafer pad in section 28-151-97 in Elidah oil field;

That was all.

Baltimore Mayor Resigns -- May 2, 2019

This was so unimportant, so non-newsworthy, it was not yet linked at the Drudge Report a few minutes ago, but it's out there: Baltimore mayor, Ms Catherine Pugh, resigned amid FBI, state investigations into her Healthy Holly book. Data points:

state and federal investigations into whether she used bulk sales of her self-published children's book "Heathy Holly" to disguise kickbacks [I'm shocked, I'm shocked]
first-term Democratic mayo

Yesterday, just yesterday I posted this:

Baltimore: soaring crime, illicit drugs, and inept leaders. But other than that, things are just peachy.

Folks may remember, it was very good when it was good -- President Obama gave Baltimore $3 million / job created as part of his "job stimulus program.

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National Polling

If you can find it, the most recent CNN presidential polling is quite remarkable, apparently. Rush spoke to it; I've not looked for it. CNN apparently has not released all of it or something to that effect.

2020 Democratic presidential nomination, link here:

Beto fades; still in sixth place, but now polling about 5 - 6%; at that number won't be able to get any delegates;
among the group behind Biden/Bernie, Pocahontas is the one to beat, the latter polling at 8%
Bernie could be fading, it appears based on polling trend, just as the fight for super-delegates begins
it's not statistically significant, but it appears that Sanders faded significantly after Biden formally entered but Bernie remains solid/steady at 20% -- and that's where it will likely stand
for Biden to break above 33%, he will need to steal support from Cory Booker, et al.
the big question is whether those candidates polling 1% will even be on the debate stage, and, if so, will they get any delegates at the DNC convention?

if not, it's Biden's nomination at this point.
if Biden is denied twice, is it likely his supporters will show out to vote in the general, no matter how much they hate Trump?

that 30% for Biden is deceptive: it would suggest that no one will get the nomination on the first vote and that's likely to happen if Pocahontas, Buttigieg, and Kamala can each get 10% of the delegates; Bernie and Biden would split the remaining 70%; it could be close

a lot depends on how the super-delegate issue is handled

emotionally: I still think there is a strong chance for a brokered convention
rationally: the DNC will ensure that the convention does not go woke

CLR Brooklyn Wells In The Rolf 1 Area -- May 2, 2019

Other wells in the graphic at this post:

34768, conf, CLR, 33-105-04751, Helena 8-7HSL1, Brooklyn, fracked 9/5/2018 - 10/20/2018:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2019	30774	43088
2-2019	8584	9355
12-2018	252	0

34694, conf, CLR, 33-105-04731, Springfield 2-8HSL, Brooklyn, fracked 9/5/2018 - 10/21/2018:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2019	37051	53994
2-2019	9124	9361
12-2018	474	0

34693, conf, CLR, 33-105-04730, Springfield 3-8H1, Brooklyn, fracked 9/6/2018 - 10/21/2018:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2019	12865	7408
1-2019	60	0
12-2018	235	0

34692, conf, CLR, 33-105-04729, Springfield 4-8H, Brooklyn, fracked 9/24/2018 - 10/15/2018:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2019	13995	9118
1-2019	25	0
12-2018	1320	0

34691, conf, CLR, 33-105-04728, Springfield 5-8H1, Brooklyn, fracked 9/24/2018 - 10/15/2018:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2019	50	0
12-2018	473	0

34690, conf, CLR, 33-105-04727, Springfield 6-8H1, Brooklyn, fracked 9/24/2018 - 10/15/2018:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2019	66	0
12-2018	427	0

34698, conf, CLR, 33-105-04735, Rolf ... , Brooklyn, fracked 10/21/2018 - 11/3/2018

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2018	997	0

34697, conf, CLR, 33-105-04734, Rolf ... , Brooklyn, fracked 10/25/2018 - 11/6/2018:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2019	102	0
12-2018	802	0

34696, conf, CLR, 33-105-04733, Rolf ... , Brooklyn, fracked 11/7/2018 - 11/23/2018:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2019	370	0
12-2018	205	0

34695, conf, CLR, 33-105-04732, Rolf ... , Brooklyn, fracked 11/8/2018 - 11/23/2018:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2019	366	0
12-2018	668	0

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Produced Water At Following Frack

The following data was available before the wells went confidential.

34698:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2018	3	0	0	3891	1964	0	1964

34697:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2018	1	0	0	2420	144	0	144

Rolf -- May 2, 2019

Disclaimer: this is a long note. There will be typographical and factual errors. I intersperse facts and opinions. It is difficult to tell the difference between facts and opinions. I will clean it up later.

Note: This is absolutely 1,000% "not-ready-for-prime-time."

Note: Most of this is written on a hunch, based on limited data.

But I'm going to post it pretty much un-edited and then clear it up later.

Interestingly, most of this was covered about a month ago, and then with an update, one day later.

I don't plan on re-posting / repeating all that, but if you have an interest in the Bakken, this is a very, very important set of notes. Consider this post, the third of three, giving us a "classic trilogy."

Frack dates for wells are posted here.

A huge "thank you" to the reader who noted this.

The reader wrote:

Rolf 1 produced 29,000 bbls this month, another significant jump in production. They are also taking out a lot more water, over 150,000 bbls. over the last 3 months compared to about 2,300 bbls in a comparable drilling period last year.

20183, 282, CLR, Rolf 1-20H, 33-105-02100, Brooklyn, t6/11; cum 270K 1/19; recent production -- no evidence this well was re-fracked; the full production profile of this well is posted here.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	28935	28999	52607	46605	32389	13797
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	23561	23433	49985	31156	30791	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	30	19636	19251	58855	25522	24915	220
BAKKEN	12-2018	5	462	435	22	923	0	882
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	4	145	265	87	335	267	20
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	1489	1614	885	3441	3025	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	29	1284	1147	691	2921	2546	0

I replied (for newbies, and perhaps all readers, be sure to look at the graphic at the linked posts above, which I have reproduced below):

Wow, this is going to be an incredible story to post when it's all said and done.

It's going to take quite a bit of time to post.

Whenever there's that much water being produced it can mean only one thing: the well was re-fracked or a neighboring well was (or neighboring wells were) fracked.

They are still on the confidential list but it appears that CLR has just completed fracking ten wells sited in section 17-155-98 about two miles north of Rolf 1 (#20183), sited near the south line of section 30-155-98.

#21086, sited in section 8-155-98 (to the north of the wells in question) also shows a jump in production. Neither of these older wells (#20183 or #220186) show any evidence of a re-frack (no NDIC sundry form; no FracFocus data). It doesn't mean they couldn't have been re-fracked or had a mini-re-frack but I doubt it.

Of the ten CLR wells to the north (alluded to above); my hunch, based on their names, six will run north (five will be Springfield wells, and run directly north; the sixth will be a(n) Helena well and will be a line well. The four other CLR wells will be Rolf wells and will run south, parallel along Rolf 1.

The graphic:

Other wells in the graphic: (see this post also; they have all been fracked):

34768, conf, CLR, 33-105-04751, Helena 8-7HSL1, Brooklyn,
34694, conf, CLR, 33-105-04731 Springfield 2-8HSL, Brooklyn,
34693, conf, CLR, 33-105-04730 Springfield 3-8H1, Brooklyn,
34692, conf, CLR, 33-105-04729, Springfield 4-8H, Brooklyn,
34691, conf, CLR, 33-105-04728, Springfield 5-8H1, Brooklyn,
34690, conf, CLR, 33-105-04727, Springfield 6-8H1, Brooklyn,

34698, conf, CLR, 33-105-04735, Rolf ... , Brooklyn,
34697, conf, CLR, 33-105-04734, Rolf ... , Brooklyn,
34696, conf, CLR, 33-105-04733, Rolf ... , Brooklyn,
34695, conf, CLR, 33-105-04732, Rolf ... , Brooklyn,

Finally, on another note, the reader added:

Also two dry wells in Brooklyn Township, a Gjorven 7PA and Gjorven Federal 6PA. They are vertical bores only and listed as stratigraphic wells. I understand they are checking the formations but I would have thought Brooklyn was pretty well mapped.

I'll talk about this in another post later.

US Worker Producivity Advances At Best Rate Since 2010 -- Huge Story -- 3.6% -- 1Q19

US worker productivity: making America great. From The WSJ:

Productivity at best advance in almost a decade.

Bloomberg would file this under "Politics" and place it near the back of the magazine. The New York Times would place the article in their op-ed section. MSNBC (and perhaps, CNBC) won't report it at all. As it was, The WSJ couldn't even put the number anywhere in the "banner."

This is really quite incredible. Data points:

1Q19: productivity increased at 3.6%
1Q18: 2.4%
best gain year-over-year since 3Q10 -- when the economy was just emerging from a deep recession
productivity tends to be strong(est) in the early days of an economy cycle

Like the 1Q19 GDP (first reading) of 3.2%, an increase in production of 3.6% at this point in the economic cycle is simply amazing. It is not trivial. And I have no words to compare a 3.6% reading with a 2.4% reading a year ago. Again, this is the best gain since 3Q10, when the economy was just emerging from a deep recession.

If one were to round these numbers:

1Q19; 4%
1Q18: 2%

From the linked article:

Accelerating improvement nearly 10 years after the recession ended raises hopes that a combination of more efficient workers and Americans rejoining the labor force could provide necessary fuel to extend one of the longest expansions in the post-World War II era.

And then the article seems to turn into an op-ed piece.

"Extends hope." LOL. The "longest expansion" milestone is due to be broken "next month," though pundits keep waffling on exactly what is meant by "the next month." Apparently it depends on a few definitions and who is in the oval office. [Wow, it's going to be painful for some of the "news organizations" to mention "longest expansion in US history" and President Donald J. Trump in the same article.]

I found this paragraph most interesting:

While the latest data shows worker efficiency is improving, the pace of gains is near average by historical standards. Since the end of World War II through 2018—including both expansions and recessions—productivity rose at an average annual rate of 2.1%. In the previous economic cycle, from 2000 to 2007, productivity rose at a 2.7% annual rate.

"The pace of gains is near average." -- That's why the editors gave it such a huge banner -- "it's just average." LOL. Wow, this gets tedious.

Are the writers suggesting that all the technology developed since WWII really did not amount to much when it came to worker productivity -- just allowing quarterly productivity rates to advance at a steady pace?

If there are significant productivity gains, I think it's micro-dosing. From an earlier post:

LSD, micro-dosing, 24/7: yes, actually happening in Silicon Valley. The story "broke" in 2017, but is now hitting mainstream media, posted April 18, 2018.

I did find it interesting that well into this expansion, the rate of productivity y-o-y increased by a record amount and Trump was not given any credit. One can argue whether his administration should be given any credit but had productivity slumped, one can guarantee the Trump administration would have been held responsible.

I don't believe there was any comment in the article about the streamlining / removing unnecessary government rules and regulations.

Link here.

Max:

Ten-year:

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Exempt From Paris Climate Change Goals

China: China's electric power industry is the world's largest electricity producer, passing the United States in 2011 after rapid growth since the early 1990s. ... China's coal powered generating capacity is expected to increase to 1300 GW by 2020, from 960 GW in 2016, despite official plans to limit that growth to 1100 GW.

Coal.

Link here.

EDI -- The California Bullet Train -- May 2, 2019

Einstein's definition of insanity: California.

California high-speed rail project -- estimated cost rises to $79 billion. Will be a short track in the valley serving three cities with a combined population of one million. The track will run through an industrial / agricultural sector of California and will carry no freight.

The "bullet train" is tracked here.

Wanna bet the $2 trillion federal infrastructure bill will contain more money for the California bullet train, and that state gasoline taxes are being used to pay for this project?

Bloomberg doesn't even carry this as a "business" story any more. It's under "Politics." Wow.

bullet train "line" now expected to cost as much as $79 billion
initial segment cost grew to $12.4 billion from $10.6 billion

Fortunately California is flush with money, and apparently the state is willing to flush it right down the toilet.

Initially conceived as connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles with a high-speed train that would slash travel times and transform the state’s economy, the project has been beset by cost overruns and delays. Governor Gavin Newsom, who took office this year, said in a February speech that the rail line as planned “would cost too much and take too long.” He said at the time he would focus on finishing roughly 170 miles of track in the Central Valley and preliminary work on the entire system.

The agency’s report said the Central Valley line would be completed by the end of 2028. It noted that funding for much of the rest of the work still must be determined.

170 miles of track: about what it would take from Williston, ND, to Minot, ND, if you threw in a few double-track for sidings.

But think about that. Almost $100 billion. A railroad that will serve a geographical area with less than one million people. A railroad that will run through prime industrial / agricultural sectors and won't carry freight. Have we lost all sanity?

$80 billion.

The population of California is 40 million people.

$2,000 / California resident. $5,000 per California family or more.

If only 50% of Californians pay taxes, the cost per paying family goes up immensely. But I guess one can raise the money through state excise taxes on gasoline and diesel.

Rumor: China Asking For More Mideast Oil For June, 2019 -- May 2, 2019

In addition, from twitter this morning:

WTI: trading at $62.55, down 1.65%. Less than a month ago, all that talk about $80-oil.

Random Update Of Kraken's Pocasset Wells -- May 2, 2019

From Energent Group:

Kraken Operating completes multiple 60 stage wells in Williston (2019-01-24) and (2019-02-01)

The Pocasset LW 32-29 #1H was drilled to a measured depth of 21,210 ft and perforated from 10,983 to 21,138 ft. It flowed 1,105 bbl of oil, 1,156 MMcf of gas, and 2,135 on its January 27 test date. The 32-29 #1H was stimulated November 12 with a max PSI of 9,143 and a max rate of 83.1.

The Pocasset 32-29 #6TFH produced 892 bbl of oil, 759 MMcf of gas, and 2,825 bbl of water February 5. It was stimulated November 28 with a max PSI of 9,317 and a max rate of 87.7.

The Pocasset 32-29 #7H was drilled to a measured depth of 21,221 ft and produced 1,183 bbl of oil, 502 MMcf of gas, and 2,264 bbl of water. Kraken reported a stimulation November 27 with a max PSI of 9,497 and a max rate of 89.6.

From the blog back on March 15, 2019; February 27, 2019; February 22, 2019:

35328, 1,105, Kraken, Pocasset LW 32-29 1H, Oliver, t1/19; cum --;
35327, 737, Kraken, Pocasset 32-29 4TFH, Oliver, t1/19; cum --;
35326, 944, Kraken, Pocasset 32-29 5H, Oliver, t2/19; cum --;
35325, 892, Kraken, Pocasset 32-29 6TFH, Oliver, t2/19; cum --;
35324, 1,183, Kraken, Pocasset 32-29 7H, Oliver, t2/19; cum --;
34893, 1,226, Pocasset 29-32 2H, Oliver, t2/19; cum --;
34894, 1,290, Pocasset 29-32 3TFH, Oliver, t2/19; cum --;

Neighboring well, #24013, with nice jump in production
#23705, also taken off line is now just being returned to production (2/19)

Global Warming? Fourth Snowiest Winter On Record In California -- May 2, 2019

It's official: fourth snowiest winter on record for California. Link here. As one reader at the site noted:

“Funny how record levels of CO2 have coincided with the snowiest seasons on record,” says reader H.B. Schmidt.

'Tis The Season For Dividend Increases -- May 2, 2019

Wow, looking at the past few days of dividend announcements -- lots and lots of "increases," albeit some are very, very small.

Link to WJS here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship changes based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Jobs: weekly initial unemployment claims -- link here --

prior: 230,000
forecast: 215,000
actual: 230,000 (unchanged from last week)

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Back to the Bakken

A huge "thank you" to a reader for his response to my Bakken exuberance yesterday. His reply:

It might be interesting to observe what - if any - feedback arises from your seemingly preposterous comment regarding the Shale Revolution having 10 times the impact than heretofore surmised.

You are absolutely correct, of course, even in the narrow confines of actual hydrocarbon recovery.

The initial 3% to 5 % primary recovery in the best areas is now at the ape 20% threshold.

The latest iterations in completion practices are focusing on so called Extreme Limited Entry perforating which essentially allows MUCH higher levels of reservoir stimulation in a more precise fashion and - as a bonus - somewhat lower cost.

The amount of available hydrocarbons now accessible to markets has explosively increased.

This encompasses not merely tier 2 and 3 rock in current plays, it extends production to shale plays not yet targeted both here and abroad.

These developments are easily amongst the biggest 'events' to have occurred in our lifetimes.

The reader is so correct. I completely missed that -- at 20% primary recovery, we are already well beyond the "10x" the impact I mentioned in my note. But, it really will be amazing if the Permian turns out to be half as good as people suspect.

At $233, TSLA Now In The "Danger Zone" -- May 2, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Danger Zone, Kenny Loggins
Next song up in rotation: "crash and burn."

Capital raise: Tesla just announced a "mixed shelf" capital raise. We all knew it was coming; just curious when, how?

Quick scan: running through the headlines, it appears many, many "negative" stories about Tesla this morning. Can one use a snowball analogy this close to summer?

Hot wheels: Sophia is into "Hot Wheels." She always wants me to join in but the "play" was minimal at best. And then I was at Target looking for something else when I happened to see the race tracks available for "Hot Wheels." This was a no-brainer. Fifteen minutes later we were having a blast. And then back to Target to get another car. LOL.

More humans: I was going to ignore this story linked over at Drudge but it turns out to be a WSJ story. Wow:

Fossil points to a vanished human species in Himalayas. Fossil jaw discovered in highlands of Tibet shows the Denisovans lived at an altitude that would leave many people today starved for oxygen.

Most surprising: whereas most WSJ articles "struggle" for comments -- getting zero to one or two comments, this article -- which I would have considered a "throwaway" -- already has 158 comments. Best comment:

Everyone is interested in evolution. But, the headline of this article is not aii true. There are many today who are starved for oxygen at even moderate altitudes - they are called democrats.

From an earlier post:

Most interesting: the "real sixth extinction" is the one no has talked about yet. The "Homo" extinction. See below.

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Global Warming: The Science Is Settled

But ... Human Evolution ... The Answer Is Still Out There

From The WSJ:

a new species

"a good case that this is something new that we have not seen before"

for the first time, the Philippines is part of the evolutionary debate

new species: Homo luzonensis

I count no less than eleven species of Homo that have gone extinct, and all during the "cold Ice Age," not during any global warming Hot Age.

Homo rudolfensis, Home naledi, Homo floresiensis, Homo luzonensis, and Denisovan are mere blips on the evolutionary stage.

So far, "we" have identified 12 species of "homos." Eleven have gone extinct. 11/12 = 92% homo species have gone extinct. I don't think any of the previous five global mass extinctions were worse. Just saying.

Russian Collusion? Nope, But We Do Have Verifiable Russian Corrosion -- May 2, 2019

MRO: crushed earnings - link here.

forecast for 6 cents/share
actual:
adjusted, 31 cents
unadjusted: 21 cents
missed on revenues ($1.2 billion vs $1.23 billion)
wow, talk about excellent execution -- slightly short on revenues and earnings come in at 5x forecast
wow

Politics: if you want some fine reading, "Checkmatee: How President Trump's Team Outfoxed Mueller"; Human Events, May 1, 2019. Link here.

Russian pipeline contamination: apparently this pipeline contaminant and resultant corrosion is a huge, huge deal. Bloomberg calls it a logistical nightmare.

Collusion, corrosion: this reminds me --

The Japanese sound is more of a cross between the English R and L, so it's very difficult to distinguish the two, hence Engrish. A proper hard R is actually just as difficult to pronounce as an L for Japanese speakers, and the hardest words to pronounce are those with both sounds (for example, parallel).

The words weren't difficult to pronounce; they just pronounced them differently according to Japanese rules.

My mother-in-law often confused me -- I remember heavy traffic in Los Angeles one afternoon, I was driving, she told me:

"Take a light at the next reft."
We had a lot of fun. Great memories. I remember the time I was invited to a luncheon at a nice restaurant. She was there without about twelve of her women friends; she hosted. I was seated at a separate table, by myself, given a camera and told to take pictures of the group. Wow, we had fun. Great memories.

NOG: will release 1Q19 operating results after market close on May 9, 2019.

Speaking of which: I wonder if Jerome Powell can do any more damage today. Wow, these guys are tone-deaf.

Having said that: what a great market. Time to take some profits? Sell in May, go away?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Apple: what's Gene Munster got to say about Apple these days? Link here. I think "we" already knew this:

“If I look at the broader analysis across Wall Street today, I think that there is a critical missing piece specifically about what’s the proper multiple to put on this company,” Gene Munster, Loup Ventures managing partner, told Yahoo Finance’s On The Move Wednesday. “The key distinction here is that investors typically think of this as a hardware business. Understandable, given that 80% of its revenue is hardware. But keep in mind, 35% of earnings are services-based and over the next few years, the company is progressively going to start to sell a hardware as a service.”

Spirit AeroSystems: Boeing's biggest parts supplier; warning on earnings.

Apple: announces a $75 billion stock buyback, but we already knew that was going to happen.

WTI Drops Below $63 -- May 2, 2019

Higher oil prices here to stay -- economists, oilprice -- no link; I didn't bother to look at the story;

WTI tumbled below $63
fundamentals hardly support $55
$60-oil is hardly expensive -- no matter how you want to spin it
(maybe I should look at the article to see their definition of "expensive" oil -- nahh!)

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, May 2, 2019: 7 wells for the month; 102 wells for the quarter

35009, SI/NC, Hess, CA-Ferguson Smith-155-95-3031H-8
29136, 1,389, Bruin, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-7H, McGregory Buttes, t11/18; cum 80K 2/19;

Active rigs:

$62.87	5/2/2019	05/02/2018	05/02/2017	05/02/2016	05/02/2015
Active Rigs	65	60	49	29	86

RBN Energy: Enterprise's Lumberjack pipeline to expand Haynesville gas takeaway.

The Texas natural gas market is rapidly evolving, in large part due to burgeoning Permian production but also due to gas production gains in East Texas driven by strong returns on new wells in the Haynesville and Cotton Valley plays. Most of this supply growth is looking to make its way to the Gulf Coast, where close to 5 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity is operational and plenty more is under construction. The combination of fast-rising supply and demand is straining the existing gas pipeline infrastructure across Texas, creating the need for more capacity. The Permian has been grabbing the headlines for its extreme takeaway constraints and depressed, even negative supply-area prices, and all eyes are trained on the announced pipeline projects that will eventually provide relief to the region. But pipeline constraints also are developing between the Haynesville and the Texas coast. Today, we discuss the latest solution for the intensifying Haynesville-area supply congestion.

As proposed, Lumberjack — named for the mascot of Stephen F. Austin University in nearby Nacogdoches, TX — would be a 36-inch-diameter pipeline extending from the Carthage Hub (left red circle) in Panola County, TX, to a termination point near Beaumont in Jefferson County, TX. Enterprise has suggested a capacity of 1.3 Bcf/d for the pipe but has said that should customer interest exceed the currently proposed capacity the pipeline could be upsized to 42 inches. Based on the route and an estimated length — right around 185 miles — we figure the transportation rate on the pipe would be somewhere in the ballpark of 25 cents/MMBtu.

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Thursday, May 2, 2019