Saudi crude oil exports to US: link here. Monthly data released today:
The average for the previous eleven months this year: 871,000 bopd.
December (most recent month for which data is posted): 842,000 bopd
Previous eleven Decembers: 951,000 bopd.
December, 2018: most recent month for which data is posted: 842,000 bopd.
A lot of talk about how much Saudi Arabian exports to US have declined, but in the big scheme of things, not that remarkable so far. Also, the US needs heavy oil which they used to get from Venezuela; Saudi Arabia is said to be taking advantage of the loss of Venezuela heavy oil, but again, so far, not particularly remarkable.
Link here.
Fuel shortages experienced in Mexico earlier this year are incentivizing major oil companies to rely less on Pemex's supply logistics system, market observers said Friday.
BP will join a limited group of major fuel wholesalers that are importing gasoline and diesel to Mexico later this year, the company announced Tuesday.
Repsol and Total made similar announcements earlier this year, joining ExxonMobil, Glencore and Marathon Petroleum as Mexico's only private gasoline importers.
In the second quarter, BP will begin trucking 15,000 b/d of gasoline and diesel from Texas and later rail it into northern, central and western Mexico by the second half of 2019, the company said in a statement.
BP plans to develop 10 new terminals within five years in the country and imports fuel from Ohio, Texas and Washington state, Alvaro Granados, BP Mexico's downstream director, told news agency AFP on Thursday.
During my multiple tours to northern England back in 2002 - 2004, I would walk the Yorkshire moors every weekend. I carried a little Walkman -- a portable CD player. I carried one or two CDs, and almost always carried the greatest hits of Woody Guthrie.
I have no idea how many times I must have listened to these songs but never tired of them; great walking music. Some days I walked greater than twelve hours/day. I remember starting at 8:00 a.m. and by the time I got back to the base, twelve hours later, I thought I was not going to make it back.
I notice that no one is singing about dust bowls or droughts in the US any more. But they're sure talking about global warming a lot. Whatever.
Venezuela must pay more than $8B to ConocoPhillips (COP -4.2%) for the country’s seizure of the company’s oil assets in 2007, according to a ruling from a World Bank arbitration tribunal
the award plus an earlier $2B arbitration award makes COP the biggest victor in claims from a wave of nationalizations in Venezuela last decade, but the country still could contest the ruling
the tribunal found the takeover unlawful in 2013 and rejected Venezuela’s request for reconsideration in 2017
COP shares are lower along with most oil and gas names as crude oil prices fall sharply today
The tea leaves suggest that Harold Hamm is looking to this calendar year, 2019, as being another huge year for the company. in addition to activity reported in the daily activity reports:
CLR plans to increase production significantly over next five years; from 300,000 boepd (2019) to 500,000 boepd by 2023; north will contribute 60-65% (both in 2019 and 2023)
[by the way, compare CLR's plans to produce 500,000 boepd by 2023 with XOM's and Chevron's plans for the Permian]
Hamm loves STACK/SCOOP but the reality is that it's the Bakken that's making CLR
recent fracks suggest CLR is still looking for huge production numbers --
to really see what the Bakken can do, or,
trying to impress investors
probably both
The mantra in tight oil seems to be "more sand, more oil."
more sand, more oil?
law of diminishing returns
at what point does the "frack sand volume" curve cross?
So, let's look at this well -- look at the frack -- almost 16 million lbs, 64 stages --
33088,1,939, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 2-19H, Elm Tree, 64 stages, 15.8 million lbs, t1/19; cum 20K 1/19; the Sakakawea Federal wells are tracked here; the 16,908 bbls over 11 days extrapolates to 46,000 bbls/30-day month -- somewhat unremarkable for a 16-million-lb frack but we have to wait for the first full unconstrained (FFU30) 30-day production number;
NDIC File No:33088 API No:33-053-07816-00-00 CTB No:233088
Well Type:OG Well Status:A Status Date:12/15/2018 Wellbore type:Horizontal
Location:NESE 25-153-94 Footages:2012 FSL 482 FEL Latitude:48.043356 Longitude:-102.700010
Current Operator:CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name:SAKAKAWEA FEDERAL 2-19H
Elevation(s): 2145KB 2117GR 2120GL Total Depth:22010 Field:ELM TREE
Spud Date(s): 6/1/2017
Casing String(s):9.625" 2060' 7" 11633'
Completion Data
Pool:BAKKEN Perfs:11633-22010 Comp:9/8/2018 Status:F Date:1/22/2019 Spacing:2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
Pool:BAKKEN Cum Oil:19629 Cum MCF Gas:26002 Cum Water:15269
Production Test Data IP TestDate:1/22/2019 Pool:BAKKEN IP Oil:1939 IP MCF:2323 IP Water:1661
Monthly Production Data
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
1-2019
11
16908
16808
13604
23154
22060
965
BAKKEN
12-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
11-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
10-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
6
2721
2721
1665
2848
0
2848
The area is incredibly active right now:
************************************
The File Report
Let's look at the file report for #33088: well, that didn't take long. Completely unremarkable, except perhaps high pressure. But look at the time it took to drill this well. I may be reading this incorrectly, but it appears 7 drilling days to drill this well.
*****************************
CLR Corporate Presentation
CLR presentation, February, 2019, link here. From the presentation:
2018: was CLR's "breakout year"
Bakken:
52 wells average 2,800 boepd IP per well
60% of 2018 Bakken program paid out by end of 4Q18
full year, 2018: 168,177 bopd, up 21%, yoy
4Q18: 183,836 boepd, up 10% sequentially (from 3Q18)
STACK:
19 wells average 3,645 boepd IP per well
Boden unit wells outperforming parent type curve by ~ 40%
SCOOP:
4Q18 oil production up 47% over 4Q17
Full year results:
$988 million net income
$824 million net debt reduction since December, 2017
record low annual LOE: $3.59/boe
14% increase in YE 18 proved reserves over YE17
CLR: #1 producer in the Bakken
accounts for 14% of ND Bakken production; peers well below this number
four recent wells (Brandvik 9-25H, Dvirnak 5-7H, Dvirnak 8-7H, and Jensen 6-8H) well above the 1,200 Mboe type curve -- well above 1.2 million boe EUR -- incredible
Later, 9:13 a.m. Central Time: market not impressed. Still down 171 points in early trading and the market has been down all week.
Later, 9:06 a.m. Central Time: the "experts" were off by a factor of 10. The consensus: 200,000 jobs added in February. The number came in at 20,000. Look at the forecasts by six folks on CNBC just before the numbers came out: this is an incredibly good example of group think. Rick Santelli was the worst.
Later, 9:06 a.m. Central Time: record number of Americans employed -- 156,949,000 -- making America great. Link here. Mainstream media unlikely to report it. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, down from 4% a month earlier. But everyone is talking about the biggest U6 drop in history. The unemployment rate for Hispanics has never been this low. But the
unemployment rate for African-American increased by two-tenths of a
point in February. The U6 rate: more encompassing unemployment rate that counts discouraged workers as
well as those holding jobs part time for economic reasons, often called
the "real" unemployment rate, plunged to 7.3 percent in February from
8.1 percent in January. On a percentage basis, that's the biggest drop in U6 rate in history -- I believe I heard.
The Mexican market is critically important to Permian producers.
Rising gas demand south of the border — along with expected gains in LNG
exports from new liquefaction/export facilities along the Gulf Coast —
are key to their plans to significantly increase production of crude
oil, which brings with it large volumes of associated gas.
All that gas
needs a market, and nearby Mexico is a natural. For a number of years
now, Mexico’s Comisión Federal de Electricidad has been working to
implement a plan to add dozens of new gas-fired power plants and to
support the development of new gas pipelines to transport gas to them
from the U.S. The new pipelines have been coming online at a
slower-than-planned pace. But what pipeline capacity has been added
across the border from West Texas is already changing Mexico’s gas
market. The El Encino Hub in Northwest Mexico is one such area where
there are signs of a shifting supply-demand balance. Today, we continue a
blog series on key gas pipeline developments down Mexico way and the
implications for gas flows, this time delving into the dynamics at the
El Encino Hub.
The aim of this series is to provide an update on pipeline development in Mexico. In Part 1,
we focused on pipelines entering Mexico from far West Texas.
We noted
that natural gas enters Northwest Mexico on three pipelines from the
U.S.: Kinder Morgan’s El Paso Natural Gas (EPNG; aqua-green lines), the
ONEOK-operated Roadrunner (orange line), and the Energy
Transfer-operated Comanche Trail (brown line). Note that Roadrunner is
owned in a 50/50 joint venture between Fermaca and ONEOK, while Comanche
Trail is owned by a consortium comprising Carso Group (51%), Mastec
(33%) and Energy Transfer (16%).
Volumes on these three pipelines have
been running around 400 MMcf/d combined, about half of which is
delivered to power plants and local distribution companies (LDCs) near
the town of Samalayuca, which is just south of the major Northwest
Mexico industrial center of Ciudad Juarez. The rest of the gas then
flows south toward El Encino, mostly on Fermaca’s Tarahumara Pipeline or on SISTRANGAS. In the future, gas
from West Texas will also be able to access the Samalayuca-Sasabe
Pipeline.
