Random Look At A CLR Sakakawea Federal Well -- March 8, 2019

Is something happening?

The tea leaves suggest that Harold Hamm is looking to this calendar year, 2019, as being another huge year for the company. in addition to activity reported in the daily activity reports:

• CLR plans to increase production significantly over next five years; from 300,000 boepd (2019) to 500,000 boepd by 2023; north will contribute 60-65% (both in 2019 and 2023)
• [by the way, compare CLR's plans to produce 500,000 boepd by 2023 with XOM's and Chevron's plans for the Permian]
• Hamm loves STACK/SCOOP but the reality is that it's the Bakken that's making CLR
• recent fracks suggest CLR is still looking for huge production numbers --
• to really see what the Bakken can do, or,
• trying to impress investors
• probably both
• The mantra in tight oil seems to be "more sand, more oil."
• more sand, more oil?
• law of diminishing returns
• at what point does the "frack sand volume" curve cross?
• at what point do EURs quit rising
• It's hard to believe, but it seems EURs continue to increase across the Bakken
• halo effect, more there than meets the eye, or just a fantasy?

Fracking strategies are tracked here.

So, let's look at this well -- look at the frack -- almost 16 million lbs, 64 stages --

• 33088, 1,939, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 2-19H, Elm Tree, 64 stages, 15.8 million lbs, t1/19; cum 20K 1/19;  the Sakakawea Federal wells are tracked here; the 16,908 bbls over 11 days extrapolates to 46,000 bbls/30-day month -- somewhat unremarkable for a 16-million-lb frack but we have to wait for the first full unconstrained (FFU30) 30-day production number;

NDIC File No: 33088     API No: 33-053-07816-00-00     CTB No: 233088 Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 12/15/2018     Wellbore type: Horizontal Location: NESE 25-153-94     Footages: 2012 FSL 482 FEL     Latitude: 48.043356     Longitude: -102.700010 Current Operator: CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC. Current Well Name: SAKAKAWEA FEDERAL 2-19H Elevation(s): 2145 KB   2117 GR   2120 GL     Total Depth: 22010     Field: ELM TREE Spud Date(s):  6/1/2017 Casing String(s):  9.625" 2060'   7" 11633'   Completion Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11633-22010     Comp: 9/8/2018     Status: F     Date: 1/22/2019     Spacing: 2SEC Cumulative Production Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 19629     Cum MCF Gas: 26002     Cum Water: 15269 Production Test Data    IP Test Date: 1/22/2019     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1939     IP MCF: 2323     IP Water: 1661

Monthly Production Data Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare BAKKEN 1-2019 11 16908 16808 13604 23154 22060 965 BAKKEN 12-2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAKKEN 11-2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAKKEN 10-2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAKKEN 9-2018 6 2721 2721 1665 2848 0 2848

The area is incredibly active right now:

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The File Report

Let's look at the file report for #33088: well, that didn't take long. Completely unremarkable, except perhaps high pressure. But look at the time it took to drill this well. I may be reading this incorrectly, but it appears 7 drilling days to drill this well.

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CLR Corporate Presentation

CLR presentation, February, 2019, link here.  From the presentation:

• 2018: was CLR's "breakout year"
• Bakken:
• 52 wells average 2,800 boepd IP per well
• 60% of 2018 Bakken program paid out by end of 4Q18
• full year, 2018: 168,177 bopd, up 21%, yoy
• 4Q18: 183,836 boepd, up 10% sequentially (from 3Q18)
• STACK:
• 19 wells average 3,645 boepd IP per well
• Boden unit wells outperforming parent type curve by ~ 40%
• SCOOP:
• 4Q18 oil production up 47% over 4Q17
• Full year results:
• $988 million net income
• $824 million net debt reduction since December, 2017
• record low annual LOE: $3.59/boe
• 14% increase in YE 18 proved reserves over YE17
• CLR: #1 producer in the Bakken
• accounts for 14% of ND Bakken production; peers well below this number
• four recent wells (Brandvik 9-25H, Dvirnak 5-7H, Dvirnak 8-7H, and Jensen 6-8H) well above the 1,200 Mboe type curve -- well above 1.2 million boe EUR -- incredible