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Monday, February 11, 2019

The Katie Ledecky Page

From Twitter earlier this evening:


Jon Ledecky is Katie Ledecky's uncle. I believe I blogged about him before. Quite a story.
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EOG With Fourteen Permits Renewed February 11, 2019

Fourteen permits renewed:
  • EOG: five Wayzetta permits (13-153-90); nine Ross permits (six in section 8-156-92; three in section 4-156-92); all in Mountrail County
The five Wayzetta permits:
  • 32523, loc, EOG, Wayzetta 90-1312H, Parshall, Bakken; 1280-acre; from section 13 to section 12;
  • 32522, loc, EOG, Wayzetta 89-1312H, Parshall, Bakken; 1280-acre; from section 13 to section 12;
  • 32521, loc, EOG, Wayzetta 407-1312H, Parshall, Bakken; 1280-acre; from section 13 to section 12;
  • 32520, conf, EOG, Wayzetta 87-1312H, Parshall, Bakken; legal name suggests from section 13 to section 12;
  • 32519, conf, EOG, Wayzetta 86-1312H, Parshall, Bakken; legal name suggests from section 13 to section 12;
The graphics for the Wayzetta permits:

First, look how far east these wells are:


Zooming in on the renewed permits:




Producing wells of interest in the graphic:
  • 17044, 1,519, EOG, Wayzetta 6-12H, Parshall, one section, t11/08; cum 556K 12/18;
  • 17083, 956, EOG, Wayzetta 1-13H, Parshall, one section, t11/08; cum 452K 12/18;
  • 25747, 915, EOG, Wayzetta 29-1424H, Parshall, ICO, t4/14; cum 303K 12/18;
  • 25748, 744, EOG, Wayzetta 38-1424H, Parshall, ICO, t3/14; cum 315K 12/18;
  • 25749, 790, EOG, Wayzetta 28-1424H, Parshall, ICO, t3/14; cum 377K 12/18; this well has had some jumps in production; a very good well; currently producing over 4,000 bbls/month
Comments:
  • note that the one-section wells have produced around 500,000 bbls of oil; some would suggest that had these been two-section wells, they would have produced over one million bbls of oil by now
  • look how far east these wells are
 **************************************************

Now, the Ross permits.

The graphic shows the nine Ross permits that were renewed in Alger oil field:



These Ross permits in Alger oil field were renewed February 11, 2019, and are depicted in the graphic above:
  • 34574: Bakken; 2560; section 8 south to section 16
  • 34573; Three Forks B1; 2560; section 8 south to section 16
  • 34572; Bakken; 2560; section 8 south to section 16
  • 34571; Bakken; 2560; section 8 south to section 15
  • 34570; Three Forks B1; 2560; section 8 south to section 15
  • 34569; Bakken; 2560; section 8 south to section 15
  • 34566; Bakken; 2560; section 4 south to section 15
  • 34565; Three Forks B1; 2560; section 4 south to section 15
  • 34564; Bakken; 2560; section 4 south to section 15
Producing wells of interest in that graphic:
  • 19679, 866, EOG, Ross 31-0806H, Alger, t6/11; cum 259K 12/18; steady Eddy; currently 1,200 bbls/month;
  • 17531, 750, EOG, Ross 5-08H, Alger, t9/09; cum 196K 12/18; steady Eddy; but a mediocre well at best;
  • 19722, 847, EOG, Ross 29-1716H, Alger, t2/11; cum 166K 12/18; steady Eddy; but a mediocre well at best;
  • 18444, 282, EOG, Ross 100-09HH, Alger, t3/10; cum 125K 12/18; steady Eddy; a fairly unremarkable well;
  • 16587, 294, EOG, Ross 20-16H, Alger, t7/10; cum 130K 12/18; steady Eddy; a fairly unremarkable well;
  • 20295, 184, EOG, Ross 28-1615HH, Alger, t9/11; cum 127K 12/18; steady Eddy; a fairly unremarkable well;
  • 17950, 460, EOG, Ross 1-09H, Alger, t7/09; cum 146K 12/18; steady Eddy; a fairly unremarkable well;
  • 20296, 381, EOG, Ross 30-0915H, Alger, t9/11; cum 210K 12/18; steady Eddy; nice bump in production in 3/17, and has maintained production at 2,000 - 4,000 bbls/month for quite some time;
  • 18819, 526, EOG, Ross 13-15H, Alger, t6/10; cum 151K 12/18; steady Eddy; a fairly unremarkable well;
For newbies;
  • this gives folks an idea of how many wells are yet to be drilled in the Bakken
  • these Ross permits -- the ones renewed -- 9 of them in 2560-acre spacing
  • there were already many wells drilling in the immediate area
  • the producing wells are not all that great by "current" standards
  • the producing wells might be re-fracked at the time the new wells are fracked; or maybe we will see the effect of the new fracks on these older wells
  • generally speaking, operators are not drilling wells in Tier 1 if they don't anticipate EURs of 1.3 million bbls oil 
  • all wells are targeting the "Bakken" pool according to the scout ticket but some will be targeting the middle Bakken; others will be targeting the first bench of the Three Forks; the lower benches of the Three Forks is not being targeted by any of the wells;
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A Re-Fracked XTO Lost Bridge Well -- Jorgenson 43X-5 -- February 11, 2019

This well was re-fracked according to the operator but FracFocus does not have the data. The well, after the re-frack, was a better well than the "original" well -- see full production profile here. The well:
  • 18039, 1,224, XTO, Jorgenson 43X-5, Lost Bridge, t7/09; cum 347K 10/19; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20183114245163142381623759023677
BAKKEN11-201830181141605933983290961355315422
BAKKEN10-20181612563123972229320553218418294
BAKKEN9-201821928910016412
BAKKEN8-201811782380000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20181075990588818284452
BAKKEN2-20182823752260266270513221284
BAKKEN1-201857393724788194558
BAKKEN12-2017001340000
BAKKEN11-2017113734872049888390
BAKKEN10-2017271871173355322951182113
BAKKEN9-2017641747984730177551
BAKKEN8-201724184519636791520889617
BAKKEN7-2017291931196159624641332309

There are many, many horizontals in this area. It's hard to sort themall out. Along with #18039 bhere are four other wells on this pad but in addition, there are additional pads in the area iwht parallel horizontals to #18039.

On the five-well pad:
  • 18039, see above,
  • 19566, 1,971, XTO, Deep Creek 43X-5 Lost Bridge, t10/11; cum 487K 10/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20183127085287653293147742047577
BAKKEN11-201815160611409217397264661232814028
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-2018003310000
BAKKEN8-201811773960000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-2018121264143713522187701225
BAKKEN2-20182436083647647446321812119
  • 30041, 2,240, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 43X-5G, Lost Bridge, t11/15; cum 236K 10/19;
  • 30042, 1,939, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 43X-5D, Lost Bridge, t11/15; cum 295K 10/19;
  • 30043, 2,238, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 43X-5H, Lost Bridge, t12/15; cum 263K 10/19;
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Three New Permits Today -- February 11, 2019

WTI: killing Saudi Arabia and OPEC. Brent at $61.44. 

Active rigs:

$52.282/11/201902/11/201802/11/201702/11/201602/11/2015
Active Rigs63583641137

Three new permits:
  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Corral Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments: BR has permits for a 3-well Plymouth/Zephyr pad in Corral Creek, in section 29-147-94;
Fourteen permits renewed:
  • EOG: five Wayzetta permits (13-153-90); nine Ross permits (six in section 8-156-92; three in section 4-156-92); all in Mountrail County
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33464, n/d, CLR, Omlid 3-19H1, Elidah, 4 sections, t--; cum --;
  • 33539, n/d, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 1-19H2, Elidah, 4 sections, t--; cum --; these wells are tracked here;
  • 33537, n/d, CLR, Holstein Federal 15-25H1, Elm Tree, t--; cum --;
  • 29091, 1,031, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-5H, Charlson, t6/18; cum 117K 12/18;
  • 32165, 1,090, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C_14-4H, Charlson, t5/1; cum 134K 12/18;
  • 33600, n/d, Resonance Senescall 636, Sergis oil field, a Madison well; t--; cum --; there are no producing wells in this two-section oil field, along the Canadian border;
Operator transfer: it looks like the last of the Enduro wells are transferred to Cobra; another 22 wells transferred; the first two lists of transferred wells were recorded in daily activity reports from last week.
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Europe May Be On The Cusp Of A Nightmare -- George Soros -- February 11, 2019

The big stories.

Europe at a tipping point.

European Energy became a big story on May 18, 2013, when the EU Council President predicted that  Europe might become the only continent in the world to depend on imported energy.
Within that story:
Now this, February 11, 2019: Europe may be on the cusp of a nightmare, but it's not too late to wake up -- George Soros.

Europe is sleepwalking into oblivion, and the people of Europe need to wake up before it is too late.
If they don’t, the European Union will go the way of the Soviet Union in 1991. Neither our leaders nor ordinary citizens seem to understand that we are experiencing a revolutionary moment, that the range of possibilities is very broad, and that the eventual outcome is thus highly uncertain.
Most of us assume that the future will more or less resemble the present, but this is not necessarily so. In a long and eventful life, I have witnessed many periods of what I call radical disequilibrium. We are living in such a period today.
Perhaps, he might want to start with energy. Russia pretty much "controls" Europe now.


My eyes glazed over as soon as I began to read the Soros article. Wow, he's a poor writer. What little I read suggests Soros is misreading the real problems in Europe.

By the way, the EU is not going anywhere, certainly not "the way of the Soviet Union."

Due to the "rules," it may be impossible for Great Britain to leave (Brexit) and if Britain can't leave, no one can. 

*******************************
Really?

Apparently oilprice supports the Occasional-Cortex / Murkey plan for going green. I don't know. I've never been able to separate news articles from op-eds at oilprice.
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Can We Talk? -- Seriously? -- February 11, 2019

This was posted over the weekend:
Global warming, again. A strong advocate of controlling "human-made CO2 emissions", Amy Klobuchar announces her run for presidency during a frigid snowstorm.
Now, this, Monday, February 11, 2019, sent to me by a reader, link here:
Minnesota has warmed 2.9 degrees between 1895 and 2017 and now gets an average of 3.4 more inches of precipitation, though the most dramatic changes have happened in the last several decades and are expected to continue.
Okay, since 1895 -- that's like 123 years ago -- the average temperature of Minnesota has increased by 3 or 4 degrees.

Look at the photo above: this is not an unusual photo coming out of Minnesota. In fact, it's pretty typical.

Can we talk? Seriously? If you asked each of those folks in the picture, do you think they woud be upset that the average temperature in Minnesota has been increasing over the past 123 years? [Actually: I would want to see the data and how the data was obtained.]

Would they be concerned that the loon (that's a bird, not the politicians) might likely spend less time in Minnesota a hundred years from now?

Would they be worried about the deer population growing? LOL. The hunters complain every year not enough deer tags are available.

Ticks? Oh, give me a break. Ticks. That's the worry Minnesotans have if their average temperature continues to increase a couple of degrees.

Can we talk? Seriously?

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Energy News And Comment, Monday, February 11, 2019

Haynesville

Oil & Gas 360 has a huge update on the Haynesville. It's a must-read for anyone interested in US energy. Archived.
  • 300 Tcf of natural gas 9,000 square miles of drilling room 
  • excess takeaway capacity already in place 
  • fast-growing Gulf coast gas demand from new users: new PetChem plant capacity, a new crop of LNG exporters and Mexico 
The play, which lies primarily under East Texas and Northwest Louisiana, is considered one of the top three U.S. natural gas deposits. The gas is generally between about 10,500 and 13,500 feet beneath the surface and the play averages about 250 feet of pay. Another zone of gas called the Bossier is located above the Haynesville and companies often reference the two plays as the Haynesville/Bossier Shale.

How does 300 Tcf compare to other global natural gas plays? Link here; and here; and, here. It appears that very recently the USGS put total US natural gas reserves at 350 trillion cubic feet.

From the linked article:
A conservative assessment reported by the Institute for Energy Research in 2010 gave the Haynesville 75 trillion cubic feet. In its 2010 assessment, the U.S. Geological Survey assigned the Haynesville 61.4 Tcf of natural gas.

But the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association sized up the Haynesville as follows: “It has been estimated that the Haynesville Shale holds more than 245 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas. At that volume, it contains the equivalency of over 30 billion barrels of oil, or nearly 18 years of current U.S. oil production.”

A few years later, the USGS tossed its 2010 number out the window. In 2017 the Survey announced it had produced an updated calculation that shattered any other prior estimates of recoverable gas in the Haynesville.

The Survey’s new estimate was 304 Tcf of recoverable natural gas for the combined Haynesville and Bossier formations. That fattened up its prior estimate by a whopping factor of five.
We're going to see the same thing with oil and natural gas when the new Bakken estimates are released.

********************************
Making America Great --- Again!

This is one of my favorite posts. It has been updated.  US LNG export terminals.

*************************************
Oh-Oh

Venezuela: the other day I posted this --
Not mentioned: if Venezuela routinely needs light oil to mix with its heavy oil for shipment, one would assume under "better" times, Venezuela would get that light oil from the US, but with US-imposed sanctions, Venezuela may be looking for alternatives.
Hold that thought. It turns out I was correct. Link here.
Venezuela’s PDVSA has begun mixing its extra heavy crude with locally produced light oil as imported diluents from the United States are now hard to come by.
Normally, PDVSA mixes the heavy crude with U.S. naphtha, which is perhaps the most common heavy crude diluent to make it transportable by pipeline or loadable on tankers, at a rate of 100,000 bpd of naphtha to 400,000 bpd of heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt. However, the latest sanctions that Washington slapped on Caracas include a ban for U.S. refiners to export diluents to the South American country.
********************************
Miscellaneous

Making America great again: US oil and gas employment up over 5% in 2018; average wage: $112,712. That was the average! Link here. 
  • Texas: 26,706 (total, now: 352,371)
  • Oklahoma – 5,266 new jobs in 2018
  • New Mexico – 3,626
  • North Dakota – 2,808
  • Colorado – 2,282
WTI: down again today. This is killing Saudi Arabia and OPEC. US shale survives at $40; thrives at $50 oil; surges at $60 oil. But Saudi Arabia cannot "make it" on $50-oil. What could change it to drive prices higher? I can't think of a thing. Except for Saudi Arabia to make huge export cuts.

Tesla: The Coyote Blog has a great piece on Tesla. Link to follow.

AGW: it's not just America reporting cold weather; pretty much worldwide. Will post links later.

Dueling rallies: El Paso. Trump mano a mano Beto.

Pebble Beach: free entrance today to watch the finish of the ATT Pro-Am. With two holes left to play, it's hard to see how Phil Mickelson could lose. He leads by three strokes. His lone competitor has three holes yet to play.
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More To Follow -- Nothing About The Bakken -- February 8, 2019

I've always been fascinated by "the four." The four founding fathers:
  • George Washington
  • Thomas Jefferson
  • Ben Franklin
  • Alexander Hamilton
Others have identified seven; others have identified ten.

I see four:
  • the general
  • the thinker and ambassador
  • the mentor and "old man"
  • finance wizard
I see the same thing with the Manhattan Project as I read James Gleick's book on Richard Feynman.

Again, I see four:
  • Robert Oppenheimer: the general
  • Richard Feynman: the thinker and ambassador
  • John von Neuman: the mentor
  • Hans Bethe: the computational wizard
I might have to readjust the list. I would like to keep it to four to "match" the analogy with the four founding fathers.

Even better: during the height of the Revolutionary War, there was a most famous turncoat.

And with the Manhattan Project, a most famous spy.

From Gleick, page 208:
Already, in November 1945, with relieved soldiers and sailors streaming home from the Pacific Theater, ....
Wow, my father was on serving on a naval troop ferrying "rested" US Marines to China while returning exhausted marines and soldiers back to the US on the return trip.

I completely forgot -- never thought -- of asking dad how he heard about the end of war in the Pacific, or the war in Europe for that matter. I never asked him how he heard about the nuclear bombs dropped on Japan. What was his reaction when he heard that news? Would he even remember the names of the two Japanese cities. Wow, this will bug me for some time that I never thought to ask. Perhaps some things are just too personal.

**********************************
Gerry-Meandering

It's funny. I know nothing about Long Island. If I had all the money in the world, I would spend some time in Long Island.

In any number of books that I have read the past few months, I feel drawn to:
  • Far Rockaway
  • Long Island City (LIT is a  popular drink at Hopdaddy's)
  • Astoria
The books as far apart as Long Island and Los Alamos:
  • The Great Gatsy
  • biography of Richard Feynman 
AOC: 14th District of New York. The re-districting pretty much insured that "an" Occasional-Cortex would eventually win. Well played -- Democrats by in Albany.

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Seven Wells Come Off Confidential List; Nothing Exciting Except For One Nice Oasis Well -- February 11, 2019

Wells coming off confidential list today --
Monday, February 11, 2019: 43 wells for the month; 146 wells for the quarter
34672, drl, Hess, GO-Bergstrom 156-98-2833H-2, Wheelock, no production data,
32070, drl, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34D, North Fork, no production data,

Sunday, February 10, 2019: 41 wells for the month; 144 wells for the quarter
33293, 683, Liberty Resources, Waldon W 157-97-24-25-3MBH, Ray, t8/18; cum 60K 12/18;
32071, drl, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34AXD, North Fork, no production data,
29404, A, Oasis, Seattle Federal 5200 42-35 8B, Camp, t1/19; cum --;

Saturday, February 9, 2019: 39 wells for the month; 141 wells for the quarter
33984, 1,195, Oasis, Dawson 5494 43-12 10B, Alkali Creek, t9/18; cum 106K 12/18;
29402, drl, Oasis, Seattle Federal 5200 42-35 6B, Camp, t1/19; cum --;

WTI: killing Saudi Arabia and OPEC. 

Active rigs:

$51.632/11/201902/11/201802/11/201702/11/201602/11/2015
Active Rigs63583641137

RBN Energy: a new tolling framework for Enbridge's mainline crude system?
The recently mandated reduction in Alberta crude oil production has helped to ease takeaway constraints out of Western Canada, but only temporarily. Worse yet, it’s unclear how long it will take to add new takeaway capacity from challenged projects like the Trans Mountain Expansion Project or Keystone XL. In the midst of all this trouble and uncertainty, Enbridge is pursuing a potentially controversial plan to revamp how it allocates space — and charges for service — on its 2.8-MMb/d Mainline system, the primary conduit for heavy and light crudes from Western Canada to U.S. crude hubs and refineries.
Today, we begin a series on the company’s push to shift to a system that would allocate most of the space on its multi-pipe Mainline system to shippers that sign long-term contracts.
The Enbridge Mainline isn’t just the biggest crude pipeline system out of Western Canada, it’s also the only major line whose service is 100% “uncommitted” — that is, the Mainline has no capacity under long-term contracts with shippers. Instead, every month, each shipper submits nominations stating the volumes of crude it would like to transport the following month on various elements of the Mainline system — say, 100 Mb/d from Edmonton to Superior. After verifying that shippers actually have upstream volume and tankage as well as downstream refining, pipelines and tankage to support their nominations, Enbridge then divvies up the available capacity based upon the nominations.
If the system were running only half full, every shipper would get the volume it nominated.
But if, as has been happening regularly in recent years, considerably more pipeline capacity is nominated than is available, Enbridge would give each of the shippers a percentage of their nominated volume — for instance, if a total of 500 Mb/d were nominated on a 400-Mb/d section of the system, each shipper would face a 20% apportionment — in other words, each would be told it only could ship 80% of what it had asked for. 
As for what shippers pay for using elements of the Mainline system, that’s based on the Competitive Toll Settlement (CTS) that Enbridge negotiated with the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) and shippers between the fall of 2008 and the spring of 2011. The 10-year CTS, which became effective on July 1, 2011, and remains in force through June 30, 2021, established tolls for various elements of the Mainline, as well as a mechanism for adjusting these rates to reflect general inflation and other factors.
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