Flaring In The Reservation Getting Worse; October, 2019, Production Data Posted -- Director's Cut

Webinar posted; see comments.

See S&P Platts, link here. 

North Dakota crude oil and natural gas production for October, 2019: there will be two headline stories this month based on this:

• first: production bounced back very, very nicely after a horrendous September due to flooding, too much rain;
• second: flaring in the reservation; not only is it worse than the state in general, but it is much worse, and on top of that, the trend is worsening, not getting better --

natural gas capture:

• statewide, captured: 82% (81% reported last month)
• statewide, captured: 
• October, 2019:  2,524,405 MCF/day (preliminary)
• September, 2019: 2,429,487 MCF/day
• previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
• FBIR Bakken:
  October, 2019, captured: 70% (was 79% in September) (75% reported two months ago, August, 2019)

A third, albeit a minor story: North Dakota officially produced more than 3 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas. That milestone appeared to have been broken in September, 2019, based on preliminary information, but it was revised downward, slightly, just less than 3 billion cfpd. This month, finally, a new milestone; 3 billion cubic feet per day, or approximately 500,00 boepd.

A fourth headline story that no one will report: North Dakota continues to hit new production records despite fewer and fewer rigs. Change in monthly production has much more to do with weather in North Dakota than with the rig count. 

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Director's Cut: Data for October, 2019

Again, see disclaimer below.

Link here.

NDIC Director's Cuts are posted here. 

The Director's Cut

Data For October, 2019 

North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data. 

Crude oil production:

• October, 2019, preliminary: 1,517,796 bopd -- all-time high
• revenue forecast: 
• September, 2019, final, 1,443,980 bopd -- very, very wet September that impacted oil fields
• August, 2019, final, 1,480,475 bopd (previous all-time high)
• July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd (previous all-time high)
• June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
• month-over-month: a whopping increase of 73,816 bopd (October-September)
• month-over-month: an increase of 5.1% (October-September)

Gas production:

• October, 2019, preliminary: 3,070,616 MCF/day
• 82% capture
• September, 2019, final: 2,946,391 MCF/day (note -- fell below the 3-billion threshold previously reported)
• August , 2019, final: 3,014,419 MCF/day -- an all-time high
• July, 2019, final: 2,944,816 MCF/day
• June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day

BOE, September, preliminary:

• natural gas:  3,070,616 MCF/day = 511,686 boe
• crude oil: 1,517,796 bopd
• total boe, preliminary for October, 2019: 2,029,480 boepd
• total boe for September, 2019: 1,934,963 boepd 
• month-over-month increase/decrease: 94,517boe
• month-over-month: an increase of 4.9%

Producing wells:

• October, 2019, preliminary: 16,157
• September, 2019, final: 16,115
• August, 2019, final: (all-time high was 15,954, July 2019)
• July, 2019, preliminary: 15,954 (another new all-time high)
• June, 2019, 15,752

Permitting:

• November, 2019: 79
• October, 2019: 126
• September, 2019: 92
• August, 2019: 127
• July, 2019: 141
• June, 2019: 127

Rig count:

• Today: 53 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
• October: 59
• September: 61
• August: 62
• July: 57
• June: 63

Fort Berthold Reservation data partitioned out.

Completions:

• October, 2019, preliminary: 91
• September, 2019, final: 112 (revised up from 94)
• August, 2019, final: 102
• July, 2019, final: 137
• June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
• May, 2019, 113 (final)

Gas capture:

• statewide, captured: 82% (81% reported last month)
• statewide, captured: 
• October, 2019:  2,524,405 MCF/day (preliminary)
• September, 2019: 2,429,487 MCF/day
• previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
• FBIR Bakken:
  October, 2019, captured: 70% (was 79% in September)(75% reported two months ago, August, 2019)

Off line, to end of October, 2019: 2,568 -- about "average" for the Bakken --

• DUCs: 885 (down 31 from the 916 in September)
• inactive well count: 1,683 (down 421 from 2,104 in September)
• wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here;