Idle Rambling -- Looking Forward To October, 2019, North Dakota Crude Oil Production -- November 19, 2019

From the data below the asterisks, we can have some fun predicting crude oil production in North Dakota for the month of October, 2019. That data will be released mid-December, 2019.

Crude oil production (see the September, 2019, preliminary data):

• August, 2019: 1,480,475 bopd

Let's suppose September had been a "normal" weather month. Then, let's suppose, crude oil production would have been up 2.1%, or 1,511,565 bopd for September (again, back-of-the-envelope calculations based on assumption).

Then, for October, another 2.3% increase in production or 1,546,331 bopd.

If that happens, a month from now:

• October, 2019: 1,546,331 bopd
• September, 2019, revised, final (assumptions): 1,456,264 bopd
• month-over-month: an increase of 90,067 bopd
• month-over-month: an increase of 6.2%

So, this will be fun to watch. Again, everything above the asterisks is idle chatter, back-of-the-envelope calculations, based o assumptions. The numbers are forecast estimates and not actual production figures.

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This may be the big story coming out of the Director's Cut for September, 2019, data: the number of wells off line for operational reasons (DUCs and "inactive" wells):

• Wells that were off line, at the end of September, 2019: 3,020 -- this may be an all-time high since this data was first reported for the Bakken; this is amazing; due to a very, very wet September; wettest on record, some say

• DUCs: 916 (down 14 from the 930 in August)
• inactive well count: 2,104 (up 429 from 1,675 in August)
• wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here; 

The Director's Cut

Data For September, 2019 

North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Crude oil production:

• September, 2019, forecast: 1,409,785 bopd
• September, 2019, preliminary: 1,443,275 bopd
• revenue forecast: 1,400,000 bopd
• August, 2019, final, 1,480,475 bopd
• July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd
• June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
• month-over-month: a decrease of 37,000 bopd(September-August)
• month-over-month: a decrease of 2.5% (September-August)