Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- July 29, 2019

Notable companies reporting earnings today: of the 158 companies expected to report earnings today, none interest me except, perhaps:

• McDermott International, forecast, 18 cents, after market close
• Pfizer, forecast, 75 cents, but it really doesn't interest me any more
• QEP, after market close, forecast 3 cents;

But that's about it.

Early morning trades:

• Dow up almost 80 points, mid-morning
• S&P 500: down only 4 points, it certainly could reverse and close higher, which would set yet another record; not counting on it, just saying
• other indices down a bit; profit-taking after hitting new highs last week
• AAPL "rallies" ahead of earnings tomorrow -- CNBC -- some rally; up 1.33%; but considering the alternative, nice to see
• TSLA: really? who cares? down almost 2% today in an up market for the Dow; other indices down so TSLA simply trading with the NASDAQ
• UNP: my favorite right now -- huge proxy for US economy -- up an incredible 1.6%; up almost $3; apparently folks finally got the news about the dividend increase
• SRE: down slightly; folks must have read RBN Energy yesterday / today

Fed action this week and my prognostications:

• a cut of one-half percent: the markets go wild; but it suggests the Fed knows things we don't know and those things are really, really bad; Fed won't cut one-half percent
• a cut of one quarter percent: if the Fed doesn't do any cut at all, the markets will collapse short term; I'm not sure Fed chairman could handle the heat from all his Wall Street friends; the Fed will cut one-quarter percent
• no change: after a while, "no change" means "no decision" or "no change" becomes it's own decision; depends how you look at it; but at some point, it seems, most folks are telling the Fed to do something, anything, but quit with the two-page press release and "no change";  get on with something; the Fed will do something
• increase by a quarter percent: after the most recent GDP reading (first estimate, 2Q19, 2.1%) this is exactly what the Fed should do; in addition, the Fed needs another quarter-percent arrow in its quiver; if the US enters a recession in the next 12 months, it certainly won't be because of a quarter-percent hike; the market would collapse for a few days (buying opportunity) but next week back to where it was, maybe even new highs; Fed won't increase rates at all; not even on the table as a consideration
• increase by a full half-percent: suicidal for the Fed chairman; but it would be fun to see the tweets that would come out of the West Wing, and the hand-wringing from Warren Buffett on down; won't happen

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Politics: wow, give it up, and why I don't subscribe to The Atlantic any more. Today, July 28, 2019, this story: "Searching for Beto: the breakout star of the 2018 midterms has had a disappointing 2019 presidential run. Can he turn it around?" Wow, what a joke. Folks are finally woke. An incredible fraud.  No, I did not read the article. Presidential politics are tracked here. Most recent polling data,  here. Beto remains at 2.7% overall, only because one poll has him at 4%; otherwise he would be about 2.5%. LOL. Sanders and Warren both at about 15%. Biden will be lucky to break 30% b the time of the DNC convection. Looking forward to new polls after this week's debates. Curious to see how much makeup can do to make folks look 30 years younger. The whole thing still suggests a brokered convention with diva ex machina outcome: more likely Michelle, not Hillary.

Debate line-up -- 

First night:

• Williamson
• Delaney
• Hickenlooper
• Ryan
• Bullock
• Klobuchar 
• O'Rourke
• Buttigieg
• Warren
• Sanders

Second night: the rest, which would include Biden and Harris.