This is quite incredible: spend some time on this one, from a reader, regarding the nation's natural gas fill rate:
"The 981 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been added to storage over the past 11 weeks has been the largest injection of gas into storage on record for any similar period this early in the injection season, probably about double the average 11 week build of the past decade,
as the 712 billion cubic feet that were added during the same 11 weeks
of 2014 was the only year that even appeared close... "
We've
become accustomed to triple digit injections, but scanning the recent
decade's spreadsheet, I find that in most years we only had one triple
digit inventory build all summer, most often in the fall. The only
exceptions were 2014 and 2015, and the June curve in 2014 was the only
one as steep as the May curve this year ... so we may be on our way to a
record year...
This came in as a comment to
the post this past week regarding the NG fill rate.
I think the dynamic is very similar to a few years ago. Was more extreme then. But same situation. Colder than normal winter followed by colder than normal summer. Production hasn't even increased. It's just that we are following abnormally high demand with abnormally low demand. Cosine wave chasing a sine wave.
ReplyDeleteNext thing will be natgas production slowing down because of price (we are under 2.50 HH). Then, the peak oilers will hoot and holler that this is the beginning of the end (like they did in 2016). But then production will resume growth when prices recover a little.
[Their behavior with natgas weather cycles is very similar to their behavior with ND winter impact on oil. Hope springs eternal in their little doomer hearts...but they don't really look at things objectively and thus they exaggerate every pause and dismiss every rise.)
I love the "cosine wave chasing a sine wave" analogy. Well put. Thank you.
Delete