For The Archives -- "That" WSJ Article -- January 28, 2019

Re-posting for the archives, the argument that that Permian is not / will not produce as much as some folks have said it will:

• from the blog, January 2, 2019
• the big sleep, January 19, 2019
• fracking's secret problem -- oil wells are not producing as much as forecast, WSJ, January 2, 2019

The headline caught folks' attention, but look at the data:

Two-thirds of projections made by the fracking companies between 2014 and 2017 in America’s four hottest drilling regions appear to have been overly optimistic, according to the analysis of some 16,000 wells operated by 29 of the biggest producers in oil basins in Texas and North Dakota.

Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast for those areas, according to the analysis of data from Rystad Energy AS, an energy consulting firm. That is the equivalent of almost one billion barrels of oil and gas over 30 years, worth more than $30 billion at current prices. Some companies are off track by more than 50% in certain regions. 

The headline is based on this finding:

Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast for those areas.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, but even so, missing targets by 10% in unconventional oil is hardly news.

Over thirty years, the article says, that would be worth more than $30 billion at current prices. Wow, over sixty years, the figure would be $60 billion. Over ninety years, $90 billion. Anybody want to do the calculations for $180 billion? LOL.

Meanwhile, the EURs in the Bakken have increased from 350,000 bbls in the Bakken at the beginning of the boom to 1.1 million bbls in Tier 1 sites. Based on the increase in EURs across the Williston Basin, the number of Tier 1 sites is increasing. One of many examples: MRO and the company's Ajax area of the Williston Basin.

Again, this is simply for the archives, since I'm sure the issue will come up again.

Meanwhile, from just earlier this month:

One year ago -- repeating, one year ago, the EIA saw American crude oil production averaging just less than 12 million bopd in 2042 -- 24 years from now (from 2018) -- this year, the EIA says "Never mind."

The US will likely produce 14 million bopd in 2020 -- next year. 

A year ago, January, 2018, the EIA forecast that the US would average 11.95 million bbls by 2042. By 2042. That's 20+ years from now. Now, one year later, January, 2019, the EIA forecasts the US will hit 14 billion bopd in 2022, and will top out at 14.53 million bopd in 2031.