"Bait And Switch"? They Are Reading The Blog -- November 18, 2018

"Bait and switch" or "duped." Fair and balanced. You decide. LOL.

From oilprice:

A month after President Donald Trump announced that the United States was withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and re-imposing sanctions on Tehran’s oil, Iran’s archrival and OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia got in June its Arab Gulf fellow cartel members and OPEC+ deal partner Russia on board to start pumping more oil to offset the expected loss of Iranian supply.

Just five months later, Saudi Arabia and OPEC are hinting at a fresh oil production cut, as rising production and signs of waning demand growth point to oversupply next year.
The oil market and analysts—who were questioning just two months ago the Saudi and Russian ability to offset expected steep Iranian losses—are now thinking that OPEC and its allies reacted too early to come to the rescue of global oil supply.

Analysts say that President Trump, intentionally or not, ‘duped’ the Saudis into overproducing to compensate for what was expected to surely be more than 1 million bpd and even close to 2 million bpd loss from Iran.  

The Saudis and Russia actually never said that they were compensating for Iran—their goal, as always, was to ensure ‘market stability’, OPEC’s favorite buzzword.
All through the summer and early fall, the United States was hinting that this time around sanctions will be more severe than during the Obama administration and that the goal was to have Iranian oil exports down to ‘zero.’

With regard to this issue, we've been talking about "bait and switch" since at least November 13, 2018. Whatever.

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Collusion

The EU is putting pressure on Luxembourg to issue a "special purpose vehicle" to thwart Trump's sanctions on Iran. SPV. For the archives. LOL. 

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Upgrade

I'm always nervous when making a major upgrade to Apple operating system but tonight I upgraded to macOS Mojave 10.14.1 and am thrilled with it. FaceTime with up to 32 people at one time. I don't even have 32 friends. LOL. Extended family members? Maybe fourteen. Maybe the next family wedding could be done on FaceTime. Think of all the money saved in travel and lodging expenses.

What's new with Mojave? Link here.

The installation took about 30 minutes, maybe longer, but it went very, very smoothly. I've learned to be patient when doing these huge upgrades.

Macaroni's Popularity Is Tanking; US Gasoline At Global Low -- Making America Great -- November 18, 2018

From this week's "Top Stories":

National: $2.00-gasoline; Trump takes credit; bait and switch

• The data suggests the US has been producing upwards of 12 million bopd for the past two months 
• Huge glut -- but is it temporary? and, here; will it last? Apparently Exxon doesn't think so; photo-shopped? Probably not;

Meanwhile, Macaroni's popularity is plummeting --- after raising gasoline taxes. What in the world was he thinking?

The price of gasoline earlier this year: before the new French taxes went into effect, and before the current glut of oil in the US resulting in US gasoline selling for around $2.00/gallon. Link here. You will have to click on the graphic to enlarge it to see the country and the price of gasoline (or go to the linked article).

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For The Archives: What Really Happened In Texas

Link here.

Data points:

• turnout:

Over 8.3 million Texans voted in the 2018 midterm elections. It’s an astounding figure, especially considering that about 4.6 million voted in the midterms just four years ago. That difference — almost 3.7 million — says a lot about the changing face of the Lone Star State, but Tuesday’s result says more

• margins:

Not only did O’Rourke dominate Cruz in the state’s five most-populous counties, encompassing the urban cores of Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin and San Antonio, he also won a higher percentage of the vote there than Hillary Clinton did, suggesting that O’Rourke was a more effective candidate in these key zones than Clinton was

• four urban areas and five urban counties (Tarrant County - Ft Worth and Dallas considered one urban area):

A whopping 43 percent of all votes cast in Texas in 2018 came from these five urban counties. They represent the key to any Democratic hope in this state, and they are only becoming more significant; O’Rourke had to win big in these counties to have any shot at victory, and he did, taking 60.6 percent of the vote and putting himself almost 800,000 votes ahead of Cruz. For comparison, Hillary Clinton won 54.9 percent of the vote in these big counties and outpaced President Trump there by only about 563,000 votes

Two things not mentioned in the article:

• money: most expensive US Senate race in history; it will be more expensive in two years
• surprise: Cruz was surprised; didn't post enough lawn signs; came to the fight late; that won't happen again
• by the way, to post a Cruz lawn sign, you had to buy one for $20; Beto's lawn signs were free for the asking

Strategy:

• will Beto stay off the radar scope and jump in at the last minute, hoping to peak in November, 2020, or will he start his campaign in Iowa next summer; I'm betting on the latter; he will say he is testing the waters; campaigning on behalf of Hillary, others 

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Crazy Arms

Crazy Arms, Bill Price
Without question the best radio station in the metroplex (DFW/north Texas) is KXT, 91.7, an NPR music station. The station plays music 24/7 without commercial interruption. And the best music ever -- very eclectic. Never the same loops.

Three times a year they have a "fund drive" to pay for their operations. As of Thursday, 2:00 p.m., three/four days ago, they said they had only $34,000 left. Once they raised that $34,000 they said their fall fund drive would be over. Tonight, threepointtwofive days later, they are still raising money -- interrupting commercial-free music with the same "non-commercials" to raise money.

$34,000 / 80 hours = $425/hour. My calculations based on their four-hour goals was a yield of about $100/hour. This fund drive will go on for another week it appears. 

NASCAR Championship -- November 18, 2018

60: It looks like this race will live up to all the hype. With 60 laps to go, Logano and Truex are running 1 and 2 with lots of side banging. Truex said two or three races ago, Logano was not going to win this race.

30: With 30 to go, Kyle Busch on new tires in the lead but not enough fuel to finish. Logano in 2nd. Truex faded back to 6th or worse.

20: It looks like Logano could lap Truex .... but huge break for Kyle Busch ... a caution with 20 laps to go .... allows Busch to get the fuel he needs .... huge, huge break ....

18: wow, wow, wow --- Truex has a great pit stop ... moves up two spots --- goes into 2nd spot, one spot ahead of Logano. So, #18 is in the lead -- Kyle Busch's race to lose ... close-up of Kyle's crew chief -- using an Apple MacBook Pro ... huge unpaid advertisement for Apple .... whoo-hooo....

15: the re-start ... #78 inside front row; Joey Logano, inside lane, second row, right behind Truex ...

14: Truex surges ahead .... by four car lengths.... it's gonna be Truex mano a mano Logano ...

13: Logano closing in on Truex ...

12: Logano passes Truex like Truex standing still....

11: No excuse for Truex giving up that lead ...

10: Truex struggling; Logano moving away ...

5: Logano well out in lead ...

One lap to go ... it's gonna be Logano, age 28; his first cup series championship ...

Finish: Joey Logano, Martin Truex, Harvick, and Busch.

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It's Not How Good You Are, It's How Good You Look That Counts

Tucker in his Carhartt Dog Chore Cart. Link here.  My nephew's Corgi. Portland.

Next year: the Hawaiian look when off-duty.

First Aid when on duty ...

The Enerplus "Heavy Metal" Pad -- November 18, 2018

The wells:

• 33516, 962, Enerplus, Sodium 147-93-05B-08H-TF, 33-025-03289, Moccasin Creek; t5/18; cum 121K 9/18; 5 million gallons of water:
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2018	25673	9748
8-2018	28465	15911
7-2018	25013	15911
6-2018	31978	15116
5-2018	9105	3701

• 33515, 1,828, Enerplus, Chrome 147-93-05B-08H, 33-025-03288, Moccasin Creek; t5/18; cum 148K 9/18, 7 million gallons of water:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2018	26880	10206
8-2018	40574	20917
7-2018	32882	20917
6-2018	31105	14703
5-2018	16017	6996

• 33514, 1,907, Enerplus, Aluminum 148-93-32CH, 33-025-03287, McGregory Buttes; t5/18; cum 78K 9/18; 3 million gallons of water:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2018	9916	0
8-2018	15791	7846
7-2018	13983	7846
6-2018	25031	12639
5-2018	12825	5592

• 33513, 1,157, Enerplus, Gold 147-93-05B-08H-TF, 33-025-03286, Moccasin Creek; t5/18; cum 138K 9/18, 8 million gallons of water;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2018	23844	9054
8-2018	30138	14110
7-2018	22181	14110
6-2018	47107	22267
5-2018	13974	6104

• 33512, 1,227, Enerplus, Zirconium 147-93-05B-08H, 33-025-03285, Moccasin Creek; t5/18; cum 136K 9/18; 13 million gallons of water, two separate fracks;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2018	29717	11284
8-2018	24954	16699
7-2018	26250	16699
6-2018	43375	20503
5-2018	11036	4821

The graphic:

Other wells in the graphic:

The Enerplus "Cat" wells are tracked here.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- November 18, 2018

Six months ago it was late May. April showers had brought May flowers. Back in the day, Mayflowers were bringing Puritans to the New World.


Monday, November 26, 2018:
34801, conf, Newfield, Yellowfin 150-98-6-7-8H, SIverston, a nice well; 24K first full month;
34587, conf, WPX, Grizzly 25-36HX, Spotted Horn, 30K first month reporting, unknown number of days;

Sunday, November 25, 2018:
34800, conf, Newfield, Yellowfin 150-98-6-7-7H, Siverston, a nice well; 25K first full month;
34610, conf, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen 153-95-17C-7-1H, Charlson, no production data,
34586, conf, WPX, Grizzly 25-36HF, Spotted Horn; producing;
34254, conf, Bruin, Sadowsky 14-11-2H, producing; 
34051, conf, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33D, Wolf Bay, no production data,
33112, conf, CLR, Wiley 8-25H, Pershing, a huge well:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2018	33534	66674
8-2018	45114	79898
7-2018	52930	90387
6-2018	12113	19086
5-2018	2128	0

Saturday, November 24, 2018:
34585, conf, WPX, Grizzly 25-36HY, Spotted Horn, producing;
33226, conf, CLR, Kennedy 6-31H2, Dimmick Lake, another nice Miles-Kennedy pad well;

Friday, November 23, 2018:
None.

Thursday, November 22, 2018:
34815, conf, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HIL, Wolf Bay, no production data,
31193, conf, Slawson, Jore Federal 13-12TF2H, Clarks Creek, no production data,
31192, conf, Slawson, Jore Federal 12-12TFH, Clarks Creek, no production data,

Wednesday, November 21, 2018:
34053, conf, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HT, Wolf Bay, no production data,
34050, conf, MRO, State Oster 14-36TFH, Bailey, no production data,
33516, conf, Enerplus, Sodium 147-93-05B-08H-TF, Moccasin Creek; huge well;
33515, conf, Enerplus, Chrome 147-93-05B-08H, Moccasin Creek; a huge well;
33514, conf, Enerplus, Aluminum 148-93-32CH, McGregory Buttes; a nice well; 
33513, conf, Enerplus, Gold 147-93-05B-08H-TF, Moccasin Creek; a huge well;
33512, conf, Enerplus, Zirconium 147-93-05B-08H, Moccasin Creek; a huge well;
31194, conf, Slawson, Jore Federal 1-12H,
30484, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Emil Veverka 5-20-17H-143-95L, 

Tuesday, November 20, 2018: 

Monday, November 19, 2018:
34048, conf, MRO, State Kelling 14-36TFH, Bailey, no production data,
33329, conf, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36D, Bear Den, no production data, 
33225, conf, CLR, Kennedy 7-31H, Dimmick Lake, a huge well:
32960, conf, Oasis, Ceynar 5298 44-32 13B, Banks, a huge well; 

Sunday, November 18, 2018:
32945, conf, Oasis, Ceynar 5298 42-32 10B, Banks, a very nice well;

Saturday, November 17, 2018:
33872, conf, MRO, Lawrence 34-35H, Bailey, no production data, 
33330, conf, XTO, Dakota Federa 42X-36HXE, Bear Den, no production data, 

And The Sun Will Rise In The East Tomorrow Morning -- November 18, 2018

Comments later, if I remember. From an interview over the weekend:

Trump definitively told Wallace that Chief of Staff John Kelly will "move on" at some point, even as he claimed there was still some chance Kelly will stay with the administration through 2020.

"There are certain things I love what he does," the president said. "And there are certain things that I don’t like that he does -- that aren’t his strength. It’s not that he doesn’t do -- you know he works so hard. He’s doing an excellent job in many ways. There are a couple of things where it’s just not his strength. It’s not his fault, it’s not his strength. ... But John, at some point, is going to want to move on. John will move on."

"Definitely told" ....  I'm glad the network pointed out that President Trump "definitely said" that. I guess the network did not want to be accused of "fake news."

Keynes best quote: "In the long run, we are all dead." From John Maynard Keynes:

In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again. 

Week 46: November 11, 2018 -- November 17, 2018

Top story: Canadian hockey pucks

International: the Prince did it in the Embassy with a Bonesaw -- Clue; both Pompeo and Trump, say, "Hold, on a minute. The data is not all in."

• Mexico to ban fracking

National: $2.00-gasoline; Trump takes credit; bait and switch

• The data suggests the US has been producing upwards of 12 million bopd for the past two months 
• Huge glut -- but is it temporary? and, here; will it last? Apparently Exxon doesn't think so; photo-shopped? Probably not;

Top story in North Dakota: the September, 2018, production data

• Sets several all-time records
• BLM will defer to state, tribe on flaring issues
• Officials see North Dakota crude oil production increasing to over 2 million bopd 

Geoff Simon's top energy stories:

• Project Tundra funding endorsed: CO2 capture/EOR
• Legislators ponder special funding for hub cities: Williston, Minot, and Dickinson -- apparently in Williston, the boom is back
• U.S. shale firms are more profitable than ever -- Reuters
• ND regulators may amend railroad oil conditioning rules -- Bismarck Tribune
• Environmentalists appeal PSC ruling on Davis Refinery -- KFYR-TV   
• North Dakota's natural gas flaring challenge lingers on -- Petroleum Economist  
• Amidon's one-room school house may close despite parents’ wishes -- Dickinson Press
• Watford City votes January 8 on $35 million school bond -- McKenzie County Farmer
• Dickinson school district may ask voters to approve bond referendum next Spring -- KX News 

Operations

• Operators showing an interest in 3-mile long laterals?
• Staggering: Bruin's Fort Berthold wells; and, here, almost 300K in four months;
• Bruin in Eagle Nest
• Bruin in the Antelope 
• Huge WPX wells in Reunion Bay
• EOG activity increasing a bit back in the Parshall
• MRO reports two more incredible wells
• MRO reporting staggering wells in Reunion Bay
• Record IPs in the Bakken keep breaking 

DUCs:

• Updated;

CBR

• Obstacles -- focus on the Bakken -- RBN Energy

Minimal Blogging This Weekend Due To Family Commitments -- November 16, 2018

Water polo (the oldest granddaughter) and soccer (the middle granddaughter) tournaments all weekend long.

First soccer game started a few minutes ago, at 8:00 a.m. and across town (Dallas), the first water polo game will start at 8:50. I'm at the water polo game; rest of the family is at the soccer game. Windy and chilly this morning. It's good to be inside.

Meanwhile, the most coincidental of things. On the way home from water  polo last night, Arianna said she saw "Rocky Horror Picture Show" for the first time one week at a friend's house. Special occasion. Of course.

Arianna asked if I had seen it the movie? Of course. Many times. One of my favorites. She hoped to see it again and wondered if any local theaters would be showing it this holiday season.

Break, break.

I dropped her off at water polo to warm up while I went to find a Starbucks. The Starbucks inside Kroger's next door did not have wi-fi, so I moved on. One-third of a mile down the road, a free-standing Starbucks in an upscale shopping area.

And then this:

Marilyn vos Savant would call this nothing more than a simple coincidence. I'm not so sure.

The odds of Arianna bringing up this movie were very, very low.

The odds of the first Starbucks/Kroger not having wi-fi were very, very low.

The odds of my getting lost on the way to the second Starbucks and passing this theater were very, very low.

The odds of the theater to already be advertising this movie were very, very low.

Yeah, probably just a coincidence. I'm not convinced.

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Global Warming Hits The South

Southern Minnesota, that is.

From Don:

Meanwhile, a balmy 20 degrees -- rising to an even-balmier 32 degrees -- in the Bakken:

My dad always said Williston was in the "banana belt" compared to the rest of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Often he was correct.

Later when I have more time I will post a short note about the science behind global warming and how really, really smart physicists can lose credibility on the subject.

Trump Claims Victory As Oil Prices Plummet -- November 18, 2018

Classic bait and switch. On November 14, 2018, from the blog:

WTI?  It was classic bait and switch.

1. Iran sanctions announced six months before they were to go into effect.

2, Iran produces at max level to sell as much as they can before sanctions go into effect.

3. Likewise, Russia and Saudi max out production -- were ready to make up for Iranian shortfall.

4. So, now we had more oil on the market than ever before.

4a. China buying as much oil as fast as they; as much storage as they have.

4a. Canada hit really, really hard.

5. Sanctions go into effect.

6. Once any country has a piece of paper that has "waiver" on it, it opens the door wide open. No one can keep track of how much oil is coming in; exceeding Iran sanctions or not.

7. Bottom line: no Iranian sanctions on oil.

7a. Classic bait and switch.

7b. Trump is smart enough to know exactly what was going to happen.

7c. Obama had his war on coal; I'm convinced that Trump has his war on oil -- in the sense that he wants to drive prices down to lowest in many, many years. That will be a great headline going into 2020.

7d. Low, low oil prices, by the way, kill the renewable industry.

8. Mideast Arabs are the greatest traders in the world -- I learned that when stationed in Turkey. They played this very, very well.

9. It will take at least six months to turn this around and only if Saudi and Russia cut significantly. Russia won't cut. Saudi might cut. Saudi is in deep doo-doo.

Today, the headline: Trump claims victory as oil prices plummet.

Trump?

Obama?

I saw the headline; did not read the article. 

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Peak Oil? Probably Not

Alaska.

Headline: Alaska sees record breaking year for oil and gas leases. 

Data points:

• Alaska has three sectors: North Slope, Beaufort Sea, North Slope Foothills
• North Slope
• third largest year for leases, ranked by bonus bid amount, since 1998
• 1998: $110/acre
• 2018: shattered that amount -- $121/acre
• edged out the 2017 sale to rank third largest by dollar amount;
• at $27 million, $7 million more than last year
• Beaufort Sea
• 20,270 acres
• $848,197
• $42/acre
• North Slope Foothills
• no bids

$42/acre? Less than a million dollars? Operators should be so lucky in the Permian.