Worth Re-Posting -- Look At Paragraph In Red -- July 13, 2018

From "top North Dakota news stories" this week, regarding ND state tax collections:

Several categories of state tax collections are well above forecast, thanks largely to the resurgence in the state’s oil industry.

The combination of higher oil prices and increased oil production has tax collections well ahead of the forecast made during the 2017 legislative session.

North Dakota oil producers received an average of $61.11 per barrel during the month of April, with near-record production of 1.22 million bbl/day.

Legislators forecast production at less than a million bbl/day at a price of $47.00/bbl, so tax collections for the month of June were 72% higher than predicted.

Corporate and personal income tax, motor vehicle excise tax and sales tax collections are also running ahead of the budget forecast.

The upside in the oil industry has been partially offset by lower commodity prices for grain and livestock. [Always something to complain about.]

The surge in oil tax revenue, including a deposit of nearly $59 million in June, has pushed the state’s Legacy Fund balance to more than $5.5 billion.

See 1Q18 taxable sales data here.

North Dakota's Oil Tax Collections In June: 72% Higher Than Predicted -- July 13, 2018

From "top North Dakota news stories" this week:

Several categories of state tax collections are well above forecast, thanks largely to the resurgence in the state’s oil industry.

The combination of higher oil prices and increased oil production has tax collections well ahead of the forecast made during the 2017 legislative session.

North Dakota oil producers received an average of $61.11 per barrel during the month of April, with near-record production of 1.22 million bbl/day.

Legislators forecast production at less than a million bbl/day at a price of $47.00/bbl, so tax collections for the month of June were 72% higher than predicted.

Corporate and personal income tax, motor vehicle excise tax and sales tax collections are also running ahead of the budget forecast.

The upside in the oil industry has been partially offset by lower commodity prices for grain and livestock. [Always something to complain about.]

The surge in oil tax revenue, including a deposit of nearly $59 million in June, has pushed the state’s Legacy Fund balance to more than $5.5 billion.

See 1Q18 taxable sales data here.

Moody's rating, Williston, ND -- April 18, 2018.

Moody's Investors Service affirms the Ba2 rating on the City of Williston, ND's general obligation unlimited tax (GOULT) debt. The outlook remains negative. 

The Ba2 rating incorporates Williston's heavy reliance on the oil and gas production industry. Improving oil prices and the 2017 opening of the Dakota Access Pipeline have strengthened the local economy, driving growth in sales taxes and oil and gas production taxes, which are the city's primary revenues. However, Williston's leverage is high, reflecting sizeable capital projects the city has taken on to accommodate the past decade's oil production-driven population growth. The city has committed itself to additional infrastructure projects, including a major airport expansion, the ultimate scope of which has not yet been determined. These growing capital needs, as well as narrow sewer enterprise operations, are key credit pressures that overshadow recent improvements in the local economy. 

Full history here.

Bond ratings here -- wiki.

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Stanley High School 

From MYNDnow:

In Stanley, the High School is remodeling and adding on to accommodate more students.

Before the oil, Stanley had about 300 students enrolled in the district.

Now, there are about there's about 700 students in the district and around 300 of them are at the high school.

And The Number Is: 1,244,629 -- New, All-Time High

Link here for rest of the May, 2018, North Dakota production data.

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Map Apps

As long as I have Sophia reading the map for me, I don't need Google maps, Apple maps, or Siri.

"Ha, ha, ha. You missed your turn. Re-calculating. Re-calculating. Re-calculating."

"Siri - ously, I think we are lost."

"Turn left in 50 feet. Menchie's. Your destination is on the right."

Whiting With Three New Permits Northeast Of Williston -- July 13, 2018

Active rigs:

$70.79→	7/13/2018	07/13/2017	07/13/2016	07/13/2015	07/13/2014
Active Rigs	67	59	30	72	190

Three new permits:

• Operator: Whiting
• Field: Epping (Williams)
• Comments: Whiting has permits for a 3-well Dam State pad in NENE 16-155-99

Producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: none.

Fifteen permits renewed:

• BR (6): two Remington permits; two He permits; one Hefer permit; and, a Remingont-Lovaas permit, all in McKenzie County
• Hess (4): four LK-Quilliam permits in Dunn County
• EOG (4): three Wayzetta permits in Mountrail County; one Burke permit in Mountrail County
• CLR: a Juneau permit in Williams County

LOL: WTI Pares Back Some Gains After Reports That White House Might Release Oil From The SPR -- July 13, 2018

Not even worth blogging about. It is what it is.

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Hacked!

John Poesta's Brother!

I hope you can all get to this WSJ article: how Tony Podesta lost his mojo. LOL.

Tony Podesta was in line to be king of K Street.

His lobbying firm ended 2015 as the third largest in Washington, D.C., with nearly $30 million in revenue from more than 100 clients, spanning Alphabet Inc.’s Google to Wells Fargo & Co. With his longtime friend Hillary Clinton expected to win the White House, 2016 promised to be even better.

Mr. Podesta, a conspicuous presence in his red shoes and Italian suits, hosted lawmakers and power brokers at his flat in Venice during the Art Biennale. It was one of many homes around the globe, including the Washington mansion where he displayed a collection of museum-grade artwork. In early 2016, he was ready to buy a $7.4 million condo overlooking Madison Square Park in New York City.

Then he got hacked.

Then he fell, a calamitous collapse propelled by unexpected blows, delivered by fate and made worse by hubris. Financial problems, legal threats and the election of President Donald Trump took it all away—the clients, the firm and, finally, Mr. Podesta’s position as one of Washington’s most influential players.  

Too close to Hillary:

His troubles, some long hidden, surfaced in the summer of 2016. The Podesta Group lost its banker over news the firm did work for the U.S. subsidiary of a Russian bank under sanctions. Then came headlines that the firm’s work with Paul Manafort, Mr. Trump’s former campaign chairman, and an associate may have violated government rules.

And in October, WikiLeaks published 20,000 pages of emails stolen from his brother John Podesta, chairman of Mrs. Clinton’s presidential campaign.

The string of embarrassing news accounts disturbed many of the Podesta Group’s corporate clients, companies that preferred to stay clear of such publicity. Mr. Podesta operated as if the whole mess would soon blow over.

He spent most of the fall traveling the world. He returned to the U.S. on Election Day but skipped Mrs. Clinton’s campaign party. Her victory would go a long way to fixing many of his problems. She lost that night, and Mr. Podesta, like many who had banked on her victory, did too.

Clients who had hired him for access to a new Clinton administration fell away. By the end of the year, the departures cost the firm more than $10 million in annual business, according to an internal Podesta Group accounting viewed by The Wall Street Journal. 

How far did he fall?

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Got Away With Murder

The Brits claim Putin got away with murder. Who do the British elites hate? Trump. LOL.

And the British elite want Trump to do something about Putin. LOL.

Random Update Of An Incredible Re-Fracked MRO Well -- July 13, 2018 -- A Brand New Well For "Free"

A reader alerted me to this one. I had posted this one back in January, 2018, and then forgot about it.

For newbies, two things:

• this shows us what the Bakken is capable of; and,
• remember all those stories (including from EOG's former CEO) that "they" are running out of drilling locations in the Bakken; these re-fracks are just the beginning, the tip of the iceberg; there are tens of thousands of Bakken wells that need to be re-fracked -- and, oh, by the way, go after additional pay zones below the middle Bakken

For everyone: think of the costs associated with a well when it is drilled for the first time -- up-front leases; pad creation; infrastructure; drilling to depth; huge amount of water/sand for the initial frack ... now compare that with a re-frack: no new lease; no new pad creation; minimal additional infrastructure; no new drilling to depth; and, look at the small amount of sand in this re-frack -- only 5.5 million lbs -- about half what is usually used in the initial frack these days -- essentially a "free" well...

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Here's the well:

• 16964, 315, MRO, Voigt 11-15H, Bailey, t5/08; cum 203K 11/17; re-fracked 8/17; re-frack with 45 stages; 5.5 million lbs; now, look at the cumulative: cum 315K 5/18 -- went from 203K to 315K in less than six months -- and, oh, by the way, this is an OLD well -- so much for "Peak Oil" -- and the "Red Queen" ---

Sorry for the interruption. Here's the updated production for this well after the re-frack:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	12953	13039	10748	9026	6753	1266
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	16648	16633	15390	12130	6074	4097
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	20807	20900	21866	12733	5915	4409
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	22590	22465	25176	13676	7280	3814
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	26722	26704	33136	17924	13520	1364
BAKKEN	12-2017	27	14371	14369	18379	8339	2272	4386
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	17493	17345	21327	9561	505	7006
BAKKEN	10-2017	22	28683	28727	554	16075	0	12881
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	5	89	64	10	58	0	40
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	661	663	148	541	0	292
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	691	677	149	607	135	214

Some mineral owners are getting some nice mailbox money.

Random Update On Well Being Drilled Southwest Of Dickinson -- July 13, 2018

Updates

July 14, 2018: see first comment. A reader says it's a dry hole.

Original Post 

About a mile southwest of Dickinsont:

• 34711, conf, Armstrong Operating, Harvest States 7-11, Eland,

Other wells in the graphic below:

• 13819, 279, Scout Energy, Privratsky 12A-3, Eland, a Lodgepole well, t10/95, no production since 6/03; cum 229K;
• 13773, 2,908, Scout Energy, Privratsky 12-2, Eland, a Lodgepole well, t5/95; cum 786K 5/18;
• 13724, 1,752, Scout Energy, Ridl 11-1, Eland, a Lodgepole well, t3/95; cum 1.07 million bbls 5/18;

Item: The Older CLR Jersey Wells Have Been Off-Line -- July 13, 2018

I think there are about 21 wells on this pad, three rows of seven wells each. The older seven wells have been off-line recently -- about half the days in April, 2018, and about half the days in May, 2018 (most recent data available over at the NDIC). There is no change for the other fourteen wells -- on remain on the confidential list.

The CLR Jersey wells are tracked here.

Random Update Of CLR's Brangus And Charolais Wells In Elm Tree -- July 13, 2018

This page will not be updated. (Significant typos noted by an alert reader have been corrected; I hope all the typos have been fixed. I really appreciate readers alerting me to errors of substance.)

Wow, talk about some great wells. Production profiles for the CLR Brangus and Charolais wells in Elm Tree.

• 32606, 2,305, Brangus North 1-2H2, Elm Tree, t9/16, cum 477K 5/18 -- 

Monthly production from the beginning:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	14100	14212	5991	25201	23379	505
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	12610	12218	5765	22948	20425	1281
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	12911	13348	4993	28476	26229	1032
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	11789	11782	4574	23954	18633	4265
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	15107	15158	6130	27534	23552	2700
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	15647	15570	6775	36376	33227	1844
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	16089	15935	6465	34227	31174	1803
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	17157	17229	7336	31572	27568	3235
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	17493	17449	7769	32007	28470	2776
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	19091	18928	8235	37015	35968	253
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	20893	21067	9674	37914	37025	150
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	19417	19538	10496	29067	26406	1018
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	22644	22700	10583	36774	34419	631
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	24397	24333	10183	37875	37103	49
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	27483	27535	10663	39234	38146	860
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	26466	26511	11752	38396	36638	1537
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	31501	31527	12672	43848	43048	554
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	26533	26022	8598	35159	30589	4367
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	35708	36247	15267	49219	45399	3608
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	41898	41780	17229	57029	39988	16799
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	46934	46730	16786	50321	41850	8232
BAKKEN	8-2016	2	1392	1000	718	782	773	0

The second well:

• 32605, 1,995, Charolais North Federal 1-3H1, Elm Tree, t9/16, cum 488 5/18 --

Monthly production from the beginning:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	14948	15127	5594	36534	35666	619
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	15530	15544	5228	25733	24723	771
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	16337	16229	5435	19918	19461	220
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	12462	12496	3901	19269	18714	354
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	17255	17405	5849	27394	26437	712
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	18643	18591	6731	27060	26805	5
BAKKEN	11-2017	29	17824	17843	5856	23354	23026	102
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	20426	20388	7331	31162	24594	5823
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	20320	20264	6657	35733	34051	945
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	23352	23289	8169	40150	39224	158
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	26694	26727	9495	47335	46091	480
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	27719	27841	8859	46276	44924	1112
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	32337	32308	10245	50356	49745	363
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	31333	31485	10461	47452	47126	92
BAKKEN	3-2017	30	29314	29310	8732	42244	40678	1344
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	29471	29112	11265	45275	43935	1118
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	33296	33542	11272	49681	47084	2382
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	33811	33418	10375	46182	43032	2949
BAKKEN	11-2016	24	32850	32680	10195	39233	34657	4426
BAKKEN	10-2016	29	17916	18270	7053	25437	19344	5861
BAKKEN	9-2016	15	16429	16044	4356	11599	11216	320
BAKKEN	8-2016	2	58	0	102	8	0	0

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On Her Way?

It looks like she is on her way to join the "prayer group" protesting Enbridge's Line E crossing into Canada:

Actually, she just came out of "splash day." Every Friday they go to Tutor Time with their swimsuits on to run through the sprinklers. She is drying off now. Not heading to Canada. As far as I know.

Looking Ahead -- The Oasis Ceynar Wells -- July 13, 2018

This page will not be updated.

These wells are still on confidential or DUC status but will be reporting. The Oasis Ceynar wells are tracked here.

Production data for these wells now being posted at the NDIC site.

32965, 12-5 4B:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2018	43039	90745
4-2018	37581	76222
3-2018	25525	56677

32964, 12-5 5T:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2018	32059	95920
4-2018	30436	66335
3-2018	15776	28980

 32963, 12-5 6B:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2018	35941	86232
4-2018	32242	46343
3-2018	11110	19599

32962, 12-5 7T:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2018	20667	59256
4-2018	33464	77041
3-2018	9322	17046

32961, 44-32 11T: 4,693, first month

32960, 44-32 13B: 10,45, first month

32959, 44-32 14TX: 23,611, first month

32958, 44-32 15BX: 19,206, first month

32947, 11-5 3TX:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2018	16859	40797
4-2018	21005	43424
3-2018	22122	48422
2-2018	3386	6823

32946, 11-5 2BX:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2018	23838	55737
4-2018	26964	56459
3-2018	25191	53820
2-2018	10396	18016

32945, 42-32 10B: 6,058, first month

32944:,42-32 9T: 4,880, first month

32943, 42-32 8B: 13,003, first month

32801, 42-32 11T: 2,024, first month

19350, 29-32, drilled back in 2011; off line since 9/17 while neighboring wells were being fracked; placed back on line 5/18

Director's Cut -- May, 2018 -- Data -- Look At Flaring In The Reservation (BLM); ND Crude Oil Production -- New All-Time Record

Slow, slow news day. When news is slow I do crazy things waiting for something to post. So, let's do something really crazy: predict North Dakota crude oil and natural gas production for the month of May, 2018, that data to be released later today.

Predictions (these are not the actual numbers; actual numbers below), North Dakota crude oil and natural gas production for May, 2018:

• crude oil production: up 4.3% to 1,277,650 bopd
• natural gas production will set a new all-time record: up 3.6% to 2,322,808 MCF/day (387,070 boepd)
• DUCS: will increase by 28 to 970
• inactive wells: will increase by 87 to 1,608

So, we'll see.

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Director's Cut -- May, 2018 Data

Link here.

See this post.

Disclaimer: the Director's Cut summary that I try to do every month is done very, very quickly. There will be typographical and/or factual errors. That's why I have the link. If this information is important to you, go to the link.

The number is: 1,244,629 bbls/day -- preliminary new all-time high

• Crude oil: 1,244,629 bbls
• Natural gas: 2,318,754 MCF/day = 386,395 boepd
• Total: 1,632,024 boepd
• Previous record (last month): 1,598,948

Crude oil production:

• May, 2018:  1,244,629 bbls/day
• April, 2018: 1,225,391 bbls/day (preliminary) (all-time high was 1,227,483 bbls/day back in December, 2014)
• Delta, month-over-month: 19,238 bbls; up 1.6% --

Natural gas production:

• May, 2018: 2,318,754 MCF/day (386,395 boepd) -- a new all-time record
• April, 2018: 2,242,093 MCF/day (374,000 boepd) -- previous all-time record
• March, 2018: 2,119,751 MCF/day (353,000K boepd) -- previous all-time record
• February, 2018 : 2,106,121 MCF/day (351,000 K boepd)

Well Completions:

• May, completions, preliminary: 42
• April, completions, preliminary: 69 (preliminary); actual --> 86
• March completions: 75
• February completions: 74
• January completions: 65

DUCs + inactive wells:

• DUCs, waiting on completion: 955, up 13 from the end of April to the end of June
• inactive well count:  1,569, up 48 during same time period
• May, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,524
• see "DUC commentary," dated June 29, 2018 

Flaring:

• statewide: 83%
• statewide, Bakken: 83%
• FBIR Bakken: 77% -- federal; atrocious, compared to state
• ND goal: 88% capture; increasing to 91% beginning November 1, 2020

NASDAQ Hits Another All-Time Record; S&P 500 Over 2,800 Again, T+43 -- July 13, 2018

Back on the net much sooner than expected. Morning commute was awesome. More on that later. Perhaps.

I mentioned this to one of my granddaughters a few days ago: Starbucks' plan to ban plastic straws will actually result in more, not less, plastic being used. Starbucks will design their plastic caps to incorporate a "plastic" alternative. Restaurants will follow suit. Very similar situation with regard to EVs. The life-cycle of an EV is more damaging to the environment than conventional internal combustion engines. But banning plastic straws and advocating EVs makes folks feel good.

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The Commute

Wow, what a surprise. This week the oldest granddaughter is enrolled in a summer camp about thirty-five minutes east of where we live. We drive through the DFW morning commute. Normally, the swing north of the airport is a parking lot or moves very slowly, but today, easily 55 mph through that choke point, and then 75 mph through the recently-widened "121" near Lewisville on the way to Plano (think Toyota). Only one item of note. A Honda Fit and I tried to move into the same lane at the same time; the other driver never saw us, but slowed down a bit, let that Fit fit in ahead of me; nicely done, and, again, off to the races.

Dropped off Arianna and have found a beautiful, large -- really large -- Starbucks on Preston, near Old Shepherd Road. First time here. I knew it was in the area, but did not know exact location. Turned into mall, and then noted three or four cars driving through the mall parking lot -- nothing is open this time of day -- why would three or four cars be driving through a mall parking lot? Yup, you guessed it. I followed them, guessing they were heading for a Starbucks. They were.

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Back to Business

Market: NASDAQ hits another all-time high. The S&P 500 back up over 2,800 again.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

COP (BR):donates $25,000 to disaster relief efforts following Watford City tornado.

NDIC: There are no wells coming off the confidential list today. The Director's Cut is scheduled for release at 3:00 p.m. CDT today.

GoM lease: August -- 78 million acres up for lease -- footprint exceeds that of the Bakken -- this one lease (of course it will be broken into many tracts/blocks and much will likely not be leased -- a reader did the math -- suggesting that the footprint of the GoM lease, at 78 million acres, works out to 300 x 400 miles.

The region-wide lease sale, which is set for Aug. 15, includes all unleased areas in the Gulf’s federal waters, including offshore Louisiana as well as Alabama, Florida, Mississippi and Texas, according to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, which regulates offshore drilling and reviews each winning bid.

Natural gas: What's not to like. RBN Energy has been talking about this for quite some time. Under new leadership, Mexico will need more natural gas from the US in the out years than less. Incredibly good news for the US; perhaps not for Mexico:

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Surprise, Surprise! North Korea Cheats; UN Looks The Other Way

From oilprice.com:

The United States has asked the UN Security Council to impose an immediate stop to all shipments of refined oil products to North Korea, after finding that Kim Jong-un’s regime has vastly exceeded the UN-restricted quota for oil product imports.

Under the latest United Nations Security Council sanctions regarding oil sales to North Korea from December 2017, North Korea is allowed to import a maximum aggregate amount of 500,000 barrels of all refined oil products for 12 months beginning on January 1, 2018. The sanctions also introduced a limit of 4 million barrels per a twelve-month period as of 22 December 2017 for the supply, sale or transfer of crude oil to North Korea.

According to the U.S. report to the UN, North Korea received at least 759,793 barrels of oil products between January 1 and May 30, well above the 500,000-barrel annual quota.

Director's Cut Is Scheduled To Be Released Later This Afternoon -- July 13, 2018

Ya gotta love it: in addition to all the money it has already received, the new Williston airport gets more federal funding. The link to the project / XWA is here.

The U.S. Department of Transportation has announced $13.1 million in funding to support construction of the new Williston Basin International Airport. 

That is in addition to the $83.9 million the FAA has already awarded to the project. The total commitment is $112 million. 

The schedule calls for completing the runway, taxiway and terminal building in 2019, as well as other construction needed to open the airport.

The runway and taxiway projects are still on schedule, according to a June airport update that the city released online.

Bon appetit!: Williston city commission unanimously approves food trucks. Joins the rest of the world.

Director's Cut is scheduled to be released late this afternoon.

Active rigs:

$70.24→	7/13/2018	07/13/2017	07/13/2016	07/13/2015	07/13/2014
Active Rigs	67	59	30	72	190

RBN Energy: Part 2, how US demand is factoring into the 2018 gas storage injection season.

Lower 48 dry gas production has climbed 3 Bcf/d since April to nearly 82 Bcf/d this month to date, which is an average ~9 Bcf/d — or 12% — higher year-on-year. Despite that meteoric rise in supply, the U.S. gas storage inventory, which started the injection season well below year-ago and five-year average levels, continues to carry a substantial deficit. That’s because record demand volumes thus far have managed to keep storage injections in check. Today, we provide an update of the demand factors affecting the 2018 gas injection season.