China / North Korea / US: huge turn of events. Xi-Trump-Kim triangulation. US seldom comes out in a "winning" position when two foes complete the threesome.
Mideast: off everyone's radar scope. Quiet won't last.
ObamaCare: back in the news. Most thought it was dead. Not.
Facebook: huge losses anticipated even if losses limited to a) no more selling data; b) lawsuits. If only revenue is from on-screen advertising, market value of Facebook plummets. When was the last time you clicked on an ad at your Facebook account?
California: civil war with itself over sanctuary cities. Link.
US auto industry, sticker shock: surveys suggest Americans unable to afford new models.
Tesla: I thought Tesla would survive 2018 just fine. But no more: a) Norway syndrome; b) Moody's downgrade; c) fiery crashes; d) poor craftsmanship; e) Jaguar - I-PACE - 20,000 auto fleet announced.
Market: everyone spooked.
Fake news: will only get worse. Print media: what you read, defines you.
FYI: 33535 by Marathon in January produced 61,186 barrels in 21 days if
the information is correct. At that rate for 31 days it would have been
90,322.
#33535: Arkin 44-12TFH Bench 1. Recent lone well in Bailey looked like
45 stages with only 6 million lbs. of proppant? Comment: I do remember Lynn Helms suggesting the first bench of the Three Forks might have better wells than the middle Bakken. Overall, the middle Bakken will produce more due to a larger footprint, but the Three Forks, upper bench, well vs well, might actually produce better wells. Truly amazing, isn't it?
March 28, 2018: when I saw the initial monthly production data for #30135 below, I assumed the data had to be wrong, but then when I saw similar data from its sister wells, I figured the data had to be correct (there couldn't have been that many typos). But these monthly production numbers are quite incredible. When I questioned whether the data might be in error, a reader wrote (see first comment):
The improvement in output - most specifically the early months (and
Marathon has been on an absolute tear lately) - would lead me to believe
the latest iterations of fracturing are showing results like the ones
you just posted.
Perhaps more explanations will be forthcoming on
the next conference call, but effective introduction of micro
proppants, skillful implementation of diversion products, competent
monitoring of real time seismic which allow extensive fracturing in the
most carbon-rich areas all tend to produce more hydrocarbons.
If
the operators are using the elevated, induced pressure from the frac to
"push" oil to the wellbore, more will be recovered - at least in the
early going - from these recent completions.
The dynamic evolution in unconventional production continues at a still-dizzying speed as these above numbers indicate.
Original Post
For newbies: to put these wells-- down below -- in perspective --
if you have one well, and the first month's production is 10,000 bbls of oil, open a bottle of champagne
if you have six wells on one pad, and the average initial monthly production for each well works out to 10,000 bbls of oil, go out for a steak dinner and order two bottles of champagne
if you have one well, and the first month's production is 30,000 bbls of oil, hire a financial advisor, take him/her to dinner with you; order at least three bottles of champagne
if you have six wells on one pad, and the average initial monthly production of each well works out to 30,000 bbls of oil, quit your day job, move to Hawaii, and take your financial advisor with you; buy a vineyard in Napa Valley, California
if you have six wells on a pad like the one below: call Warren Buffett; ask him if he needs another partner
************************************
This note is a big deal, at least for me. This is something new for me. The looks like the other gazillion posts on the blog regarding initial production data, but this one is clearly different. If you are at all interested in the Bakken, spend some time on this one. Also, please help me out if I've made obvious errors. Of if you see something I missed. Or if I'm seeing something that doesn't exist, let me know.
Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and factual errors. I will correct them when found. The errors will not detract from the overall "picture" of this incredible pad.
Disclaimer: when I first started the post, I said that the production data for #30135 was most likely in error at the NDIC site. Once I completed production data for all the wells on the pad -- maybe I was really, really, really wrong.
Note: there are six wells / six file numbers identified on the pad, but there are seven horizontals clearly identified on the NDIC map; that hasn't been sorted out yet.
Note: this is something I had not seen before or if I had, I have missed it, or I did not miss it but did not pay attention to it. Whatever. But now I know I will watch for it. These wells are in the Antelope oil field, targeting the SANISH POOL. Some of these wells target the middle Bakken, some the first bench of the Three Forks and get this, one targets the second bench of the Three Forks.
****************************************
Based on a sixth sense that sometimes helps me with the blog, my hunch -- this is an error and will eventually be corrected. Until then, we can dream, can't we (see disclaimer above):
30135, 4,881, MRO, Deane USA 24-22H, Antelope, Sanish, t12/17; cum
99K in 43 days; (and I'm sure the first full month of production
(73,138 bbls crude oil; 111,373 mcf natural gas) is incorrect; 111,373 mcf = 18,556 boe + 73,138 bo = 91,693 boe in one full month, clearly a Bakken record, and clearly an error that will be corrected. Later, October 31, 2021: this is how far we've come. This was not an error; this is just how incredible the Bakken can be and it ever surprised me. These numbers are correct.
Monthly Production Data:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
SANISH
1-2018
31
73138
73190
17241
111373
18783
84433
SANISH
12-2017
12
25957
25025
0
36007
0
33113
The geologist's report is not yet scanned into the file report.
15,987,691 gallons of water = 133,417,281 lbs of water
water: 89.74% of total mass of injection fluid
sand: 9.9962% of total mass of injection fluid
133,417,281 is 89.74% of what
133,417,281 = 0.8974 x ?
133,417,281 / 0.8974 = 148,670,918 lbs of injection fluid
0.09962 x 148,670,918 = 14,810,597 lbs of sand
since my estimates usually come in low, this frack probably used 16 million lbs or more of sand (a huge frack) -- corresponds with the fracks for the wells on the same pad
WTI after the announcement: nearly unchanged at $65.25
TSLA: down 8%, dropping $25 during normal business hours; down another dollar+ after hours trading. Moody's cut ratings from B2 to B3.
The impetus for the cut in rating is the company’s slipping production
rates for its newer “Model 3” sedan, something that has been worrying
multiple parties of late, as Barron's Ben Levisohn wrote earlier today.
As Moody's put it: Tesla's ratings reflect the significant shortfall
in the production rate of the company's Model 3 electric vehicle. The
firm writes that it’s conceivable the company may have to do a
large capital raise: The negative outlook reflects the likelihood that
Tesla will have to undertake a large, near-term capital raise in order
to refund maturing obligations and avoid a liquidity short-fall.
***************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
$65.25→
3/27/2018
03/27/2017
03/27/2016
03/27/2015
03/27/2014
Active Rigs
59
49
32
97
196
Three new permits:
Operator: CLR Field: Banks (McKenzie) Comments:CLR has permits for a 3-well Pasadena pad in SWSW 11-152-99, Banks oil field
Eleven permits renewed:
WPX (4): four Charles Blackhawk permits, all in Dunn County
Thunderbird Resources (3): three Fleck permits in McKenzie County
NP Resources (2): two Roosevelt permits in Billings County
Petro Harvester (2): two RNL1 permits in Burke County
Two permits canceled:
Petro-Hunt: two Moberg permits in Burke County
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
30135, 4,881, MRO, Deane USA 24-22H, Antelope, Sanish, t12/17; cum 99K in 43 days; (and I'm sure the first full month of production (73,138 bbls crude oil; 111,373 mcf natural gas) is incorrect
31610, 349, BR, He 5-8-20UTFH, Elidah, t2/18; cum --
31611, 467, BR, He 4-8-20MBH, Elidah, t2/18; cum --
31613, 450, BR, He 2-8-20MBH, Elidah, t2/18; cum --
32978, 10, BR, Dodge 3C TFH, Dimmick Lake, t1/18; cum --
33337, 56, BR, Dodge 2A TFH, Dimmick Lake, t1/18; cum --
intended to bring additional natural gas to New Jersey Natural Gas
phase 1 was commissioned September, 2017
beginning point: Transco's Zone 6 Stations 210 Pooling Point in Mercer County, NJ (county seat: Trenton); a small county abutting Burlington County on the northwest (of Burlington County)
new connection: Trenton Woodbury Lateral in Burlington County, NJ (2nd largest county in NJ)
in addition to pipe, new compressor station and additional infrastructure
New Jersey Natural Gas: services over a half million customer in six New Jersey counties
Transco: wholly owned by Williams Partners
the nation's largest-volume and fastest-growing interstate natural gas pipeline system
mainline extends from south Texas to NYC
Williams Partners CAPEX in 2018: $2.7 billion
Trancso growth project: $1.7 billion
Meanwhile, somewhere in New Jersey, someone is building a 2.5 MW wind tower. If you do a google search you should be able to find an article on some green energy website.
Titanic: A Fresh Look at the Evidence by a Former Chief Inspector of Marine Accidents, John Lang, c. 2012
appears to be perhaps the best of the lot noted on this page
a very, very comprehensive coverage of the ship and the event
biggest failure: fails to discuss bad steel/bad rivets even though there was an incredibly good book on this very issue published four years earlier
What Really Sank the Titanic: New Forensic Discoveries, Jennifer Hooper McCarty & Tim Foecke, c. 2008
Bad steel, bad rivets
A Night to Remember, Walter Lord, c. 1955
In 1898 a struggling author named Morgan Robertson concocted a novel about a fabulous Atlantic liner, far larger than any that had ever been built. Robertson loaded his ship with rich and complacent people and then wrecked it one cold April night on an iceberg. This somehow showed the futility of everything, and in fact, the book was called Futility when it appeared that year, published by the firm of M. F. Mansfield.
Fourteen years later a British shipping company named the White Star Line built a steamer remarkably like the one in Robertson's novel. The new liner was 66,000 tons displacement; Robertson's was 70,000 tons. The real ship was 882.5 feet long; the fictional one was 800 feet. Both vessels were triple screw and could make 24 - 25 knots. Both could carry about 3,000 people, and both had enough lifeboats for only a fraction of this number. But, then, this didn't seem to matter because both were labeled "unsinkable."
On April 10, 1912, the real ship left Southampton on her maiden voyage to New York. Her cargo included a priceless copy of the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam and a list of passengers collectively worth $250 million dollars. On her way over she too struck an iceberg and went down on a cold April night.
Robertson called his ship the Titan; the White Star Line called its ship the Titanic. This is the story of her last night.
Today: Titanic Tragedy: A New Look at the Lost Liner, John Maxtone-Graham, c. 2011
[Note: I watched the entirety of A Night To Remember, last night on TCM. I was riveted by the move. From wiki:
British docudrama based on the eponymous book by Walter Lord starring Kenneth More as the ship's Second Officer Charles Lightoller.
Regarded as one of the most historically accurate Titanic disaster films, with the exception of not featuring the ship breaking in half.
(There was still doubt about the fact she split in two when the book and film were produced. The accepted view at the time and the result of the inquires was that she sank intact; it was only confirmed that she split after the wreck was found in 1985.) Some effects scenes were 'borrowed' from the 1943 German film.
The author:
maritime historian
a Scottish-American New Yorker
has written dozens of books about North Atlantic liners
Chapter 1: The Wireless Miracle
it begins: "Surviving passengers and crew of Titanic owed their lives to two giants of transatlantic innovation, Samuel Morse and Guglielmo Marconi. Their combined achievements from opposite sides of the ocean established an incredible communication linkage, connecting continents, countries, and ships. Not surprisingly, their names have entered the language; there is the verb coinage to Morse and millions of Marconigrams have been dispatched and delivered. Hence they become obligatory subjects of this opening chapter."
Samuel Finely Breese Morse, b. 27 April 1791, Charestown, MA
graduated from Yale, Phi Beta Kappa, 1810 at the age 19
started out in life as a painter; former president John Adams sat for him, as did Marquis de Lafayette and several members of Congress
Chapter 2: Glittering Night Chapter 3: Hornblow at Queen's Island Chapter 4: The Ocean Dock Chapter 5: Into the Boats Chapter 6: Survival Sagas Chpater 7: "Safe Carpathia"
Joseph Boxhall: fourth officer of the Titanic; lifeboat survivor
Captain Arthur Rosron: master of Carpathia
Carpathia
alternated immigrant runs from Fiume and Naples to New York
upgraded for transatlantic service
sailing out of Liverpool
100 first class, 200 second class, an astonishing 2,250 in third class
five passenger levels: promenade, saloon, shelter, upper, and main decks
first class: promenade and saloon decks
second class: shelter dek
third class: forward ends of the two lowest decks
April 11, 1912: spring cruise, NYC to the Mediterranean
120 (1st class); 50 (2nd class); 565 in 3rd class
300 crew
total: 1,035 souls on board
12:25 a.m. the Morse signal from the sinking ship (the CQD)
In 1904, the Marconi company suggested the use of "CQD" for a distress signal. Although generally accepted to mean, "Come Quick Danger," that is not the case. It is a general call, "CQ," followed by "D," meaning distress. A strict interpretation would be "All stations, Distress."
a 57-mile dash on a new course -- North 57 West toward the stricken Titanic
the race would consume 3.5 hours
shortly after 2:00 a.m. the White Star vessel's radio ceased transmitting, Carpathia was still 34 miles away
shortly after 4:00 a.m. and as dawn broke, the Carpathia began picking up survivors
it would take more than four hours to bring Titanic's 703 survivors and 5 dead aboard
Carpathia surrounded by icebergs
again, the Californian was incredibly "out of the loop"; it arrived on scene having no idea what was happening
first class passengers on Carpathia refused to be bothered by all this
no other vessel picked up anyone
when Carpathia arrived NYC Pier 54, the most celebrated visitor: Guglielmo Marconi; the price of his company's stock had quadrupled since the news broke but he did not want to be perceived as profiting from disaster; yet at the same time, he was furious and mystified by inbound Carpathia's silence (the captain did not want a "circus" at NYC pier)
210 Titanic officers and crew survived; some rescued from freezing water (not in lifeboats)
epilogue: Carpathia came to an end on 17 July 1918 when, like so many unsung wartime carriers, in a sixteen-ship convoy, was struck by two torpedoes 120 miles west of Fastnet
in March 1918, Captain Arthur Rostron was the master of the troopship Mauretania
I've been waiting for this presentation for quite some time with all the recent activity in the Bakken -- CLR's most recent presentation, link here. Quickly, because I have more important things to do, the things that caught my attention that are new:
34 slides
2018: a breakout year for CLR
100% funded from internal cash flow
$2 billion for D&C
78% of D&C targeting the Bakken and the Springer (SCOOP)
targeting 17% to 24% YoY production growth; targeting annual 285K to 300K boe per day
up to $1 billion (rounded) in free cash flow with $60 WTI and $3 Henry Hub
continue to reduce debt
free cash flow to reduce debt
additional non-core asset divestitures
net reservoir acres / hbp
Bakken: 802,000 net acres / 90%
STACK: 409,500 net acres (I did not realize it was this much, compared to the Bakken) / 60%
SCOOP: 724,000 (ditto) / 60%
production
north (North Dakota): 175,563 boepd
south (Oklahoma): 111,422 boepd
Bakken continues to deliver record results (well / 30-day avg boepd / % oil / formation)
Tarentaise Federal 1-19H (2,126 / 79% / MB)
Tarentaise Federal 3-19H (2,074 / 805 / MB)
Tarentaise Federal 5-19H (2,034 / 79% / MB)
Tarentaise Federal 12-19H2 (1,848 / 79% / TF2)
Holstein Federal 8-25H (2,015 / 83% / MB)
Wiley 7-25H (1,966 / 76% / MB)
Akron Federal 7-27H (1,853 / 79% / MB)
Radermecher 2-22H1 (1,833 / 79% / TF1)
Monroe 7-2H (2,055 / 80% / MB)
Monroe 6-2H (2,869 / 79% / MB)
EUR type curves: 1.1 million boe
134 optimized completions
125% ROR
PV-10 up 47% per well compared to previous type curve
interesting term on slide 16: "children wells" / "parent well"-- we've blogged about that only once or twice in the past; a reader working for HAL alerted me to that "new term" maybe a year or so ago
children wells are producing 20% higher than parent wells (we've seen something similar in the Bakken); 50% reduction in drill time; 20% reduction in CWC
history of EUR type curves:
2011: 430 mboe
2014: 603 mboe
2015: 800 mboe
1H17: 980 mboe
2018: 1,100 mboe; payout period down to ten months
************************************
Notes to the Granddaughters
Close Encounters With Humankind: A Paleoanthropolgist Investigates Our Evolving Species
San-Hee Lee with Shin-Young Yoon
c. 2015
Chapter 1: Are We Cannibals
there may be cannibalistic behavior, but there are no cannibals
Fore, Australia, in the 1950s
the spread of an unknown disease
tremors and convulsions: kuru -- "shaking" in the indigenous language
also called "laughing disease" because patients would fall into fits of nonstop laughter
a very long incubation period: normally five to 20 years
the last reported person to have the disease died in 2005, but he was infected in the 1960s
after the incubation period, the patient usually dies within a year of the first symptoms
Daniel Gajdusek: documented the existence of a prion disease for the first time
another prion-related disease: Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease
Gajdusek: Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1976
currently, scientists hypothesize that the kuru epidemic started with the funerary rituals for one person who must have had kuru, which was endemic to the population
Chapter 2: The Birth of Fatherhood
there is no question that the human family is unique: human families involve adult men
"couvade syndrome": sympathetic pregnancy and labor experience among (prospective) fathers
Chapter 3: Who Were the First Hominin Ancestors?
Propconsul and Ramapithecus: first candidates; subsequently, the DNA said "no"
Australopithecus africanus: DNA, yes, but fossil record dated A. africanus to only 2 - 3 million years ago; too recent
then, Mary Leakey and Donald Johanson: A. afarensis found to be 3 - 3.5 million years old; "Lucy"
walked upright before developing an enlarged brain
"Lucy" resulted in a paradigmatic shift
bipedalism, not enlarged brains, would be the defining characteristic for an ancestral human
mid-1990s: several ancestral hominins much older than A. afarensis; also bipedal
Australopithecus anamensis, 3.9 - 4.2 million years ago
heated debate whether to add a third candidate, A Anamensis to A. afarensis and A. africanus
it's possible A. anamensis might simply be another A. afarensis
issue becomes more complicated in the early 2000swith three new candidates for "earliest ancestor"
1999: two new candidates
Sahelanthropus tchadensis, discovered in Toumai, Chad (central Africa); 6 - 7 million years go; too little fossil to be more sure
Orrorin guenensis (no doubt named after a fossil of a senator in the US Senate, LOL), Tugen Hills, Kenya, East Africa; also 6 - 7 million years ago; femur shows traits of bipedalism
most recent addition: Ardipithecus ramidus, discovered in Aramis, Ethiopia; 4.4 million yeas ago
another reversal: bipedalism in doubt
the problem: A. ramidus may have been a tree-climber
one possibility: the three candidates may be members of the various ape lineages that roamed before hominins began, instead of being the earliest member of the hominin lineage
Chapter 4: Big-Brained Babies Give Moms Big Grief
childbirth in humans cannot (as a rule) be done alone: "social" childbirth
origin of "social" childbirth goes back at least 50,000 years; CT scan of Neanderthal newborn
Chapter 5: Meat Lovers R Us
first source of "meat" for hominins -- bones
Chapter 6: Got Milk?
co-evolution of humans and cows
in the last 10,000 years, humans evolved the ability to drink milk into adulthood from a series of genetic mutations in the lactase gene
but also, milk itself has changed; the genetic makeup of the cows that produce milk has changed through domestication
genetics and anthropology have shown that humans have continued to evolve recently, at an even faster rate than we did over the previous 5 million years (author will come back to this later)
Chapter 7: A Gene for Snow White
lighter skin among humans
Chapter 8: Granny Is an Artist
when did longevity begin? with sapiens or with erectus
longevity and the blossoming of art
Chapter 9: Did Farming Bring Prosperity
Chapter 10: Peking Man and the Yakuza
yakuza: the notorious crime organization of Japan
Peking Man was discovered in Zhoukoudian, China, in the 1920s
fossils vanished at harbor of Beijing, 1941, in preparation for transportation to the US; last time they were ever to be seen
now, ten years earlier, the author was told a yakuza rite would include Peking Man fossils
if legitimate --- wow!
author declined the invitation -- wow, even sadder (too dangerous to accept)
the Peking Man fossils have never been rediscovered
the molds still exist
argument that Peking man is not Homo erectus
Chapter 11: Asia Challenges Africa's Stronghold on the Birthplace of Humanity
the Dmanisi fossils
Chapter 12: Cooperation Connects You and Me
is helping others written in our DNA?
1.8 million years of altruism
Chapter 13: King Kong
was King Kong real? Gigantopithecus
Chapter 14: Breaking Back
Chapter 15: In Search of the Most Humanlike Face
Homo rudolfensis
what makes a face "humanlike" anyway
KNM-EM 62000: discovered in Koobi Fora, a renowned paleo-anthropological site in northern Kenyz
the most famous family in the field of anthropology: the Leakeys
Chapter 16: Our Changing Brains
adult brains and child brains are different
growth -- not physical size but the number of synapses
big brains need lean faces
"...for the skull to get bigger, the muscles holding down the bones that make up the skull have to become smaller first, to allow the skull to grow unencumbered. The biggest muscle connected to the skull is the masticatory (chewing) muscle. In other words, for the brain to get bigger, the masticatory muscles have to get smaller. Interestingly, a paper published in 2004 featured an experiment showing that a mutation in a gene (MYH16) to make the chewing muscle small led to an enormously big skull in mice, making this hypothesis more plausible."
there are indications that in the last 50,000 years, human brains might actually be getting smaller; if true, no one knows why, but that's where research is headed
Chapter 17: You Are a Neanderthal!
Chapter 18: The Molecular Clock Does Not Keep Time
come back to this chapter later
Chapter 19: Denisovans: The Asian Neanderthals
come back to this chapter later
Chapter 20: Hobbits
Chapter 21: Seven Billion Humans, One Single Race?
it is not clear when and where the concept of race originated
if a race is not like a biological species, researchers keen on proving that race exist as a natural category might then consider subspecies, a subclassification within the same species. A subspecies is a population that has been isolated to the point that it is on a trajectory to become a different species if the isolation continues. Subspecies are sometimes defines as sharing less than 85% of their genes with the other subpopulations of their species designation (don't humans - chimps share 99% of their genetic material?), in order to be considered on their way to becoming a different species.
After this post, I'm outta here, for an hour or so. Good luck to everyone. Chart of the day:
Fake news, even in the WSJ. This is really, really cool. During the Bakken boom, back in 2007 - 2012, "emigres" from three or four states dominated the number of new folks coming to western North Dakota looking for jobs. Idaho was among the top five out-of-state license plates seen in those days. Idaho was in a severe recession.
Now? From The Wall Street Journal today: incomes in Idaho rising at fastest rate in the nation.Why? Let's see: nope, the article was unhelpful. The writer is trying to make a "worker shortage - wage inflation" story in Idaho "work" for the nation as a whole. Nonsense. Except perhaps on the margins.
Using the same model, my hunch is that globally, incomes in Bangladesh are also rising at the fast rate.
***********************
@TeslaCharts: OMFG. Boom.
This is quite incredible. I have not seen something that has completely "shocked" the business world tweets like what is happening now over at twitter -- maybe like forever.
If you understand how Twitter works, @TeslaCharts is a no-brainer "site" to follow. [Also, Scott Adams, but that's another story. I digress.]
The news that is shaking "business world twitter" accounts today -- Waymo and Jaguar's self-driving I-PACE just announced a partnership.
Wow, anyone following Waymo (just off the radar scope for most folks) and Jaguar's I-PACE (off everyone's radar scope) -- this story is incredible.
This will knock TSLA hard. Let's see what TSLA is doing. Before we look, remember, the market went up 700 points yesterday and up another 100 points today. Okay, here we go, TSLA (at 10:07 a.m. Central Time, just minutes after the Waymo - Jaguar pact was announced) is trading down $7.08, or down 2.33%. It's now well below its floor ($300). [Later: TSLA is down over $12 -- 11:16 a.m. Central Time.] [Later, 1:32 p.m. Central Time: inexplicably the market plummets, goes negative; TSLA shares down almost $20.]
Remember, a week ago, every talking head (except the moderator) was bullish on Tesla (posted previously).
Top story driving the drop in TSLA shares? Who knows? But Zacks reported one hour ago (something twitter reported yesterday) that Elon Musk has alerted investors that Tesla is "slowing" deliveries to Norway, on purpose.
According to CNBC, Tesla, Inc.’s
CEO Elon Musk has asked his team in Norway to slow down deliveries
of electric cars there due to issues pertaining to the local
manufacturing supply chain. Notably, the electric vehicle maker is
experiencing a lack of giant trucks to carry its vehicles safely around
Norway. A truck, which was carrying Tesla Model S vehicles, was recently
embroiled in an accident.
Two
Tesla vehicles were crushed by the upper deck of the truck. Musk said,
“I have just asked our team to slow down deliveries. It is clear that we
are exceeding the local logistics capacity due to batch build and
delivery. Customer happiness & safety matter more than a few extra
cars this quarter.
The Waymo-Jaguar story certainly did not help.
Elon got his $3 billion bonus just in time.
Reflections on a short life.
Reflections Of My Life, The Marmalade
**********************************
The Equity Market
A dead cat bounce?
Q: When will we know?
A: Friday, March 30, 2018. 10:30 a.m. Central Time.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.
This is the one common theme coming out of western Canada. Everyone's writing about it. And it's not going to change very soon.
Trudeau's response: "I look up as I walk so the tears won't fall."
The story from Zacks: dearth of pipeline capacity plagues Canadian oil producers.
The new supply, which has arrived in the market from the start up of new
oil sands, is facing transportation issues as Keystone pipeline lowered
shipments in November 2017, thanks to a spill.
This has pushed the
heavy Canadian crude prices to trade close to the largest discount to
U.S. benchmark oil futures in more than four years [around $30 -- ouch]. Other existing
pipelines are fully committed, while exporters shipping crude using rail
have faced hindrances amid excess grain that is to be transported.
The
heavy discount between Canadian crude prices and futures has forced the
oil sands players to shut their plants this month for maintenance. For
instance, Canadian Natural Resources’ Peace River oil sands site is
currently under maintenance. Moreover, it has also reduced its pace of
the ramp up and completion of some wells.
Per industry researcher
Genscape Inc., Western Canadian crude production was more than the
pipeline capacity to transfer it to markets by 87,000 barrels per day
(bpd) in December 2017. This is expected to grow to 338,000 bpd by the
end of 2018.
Apple: educators' conference today -- presentation not being streamed (standard protocol for these "educators' conferences). Updates at Macrumors. Folks expecting some lower-priced tablets and laptops for schools to compete with Google Chrome.
The world’s largest oil companies have survived a life-changing
crisis, and are now poised to reap the rewards, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
said.
Big Oil is in a sweet spot with rising oil prices and low operating
costs, leaving them with the biggest cash-flow growth in two decades and
boosting earnings, Goldman said in a report Monday. That will increase
their attraction for investors after years of elevated spending followed
by crude’s slump sent their weighting in global equity indexes to a
50-year low, according to the bank.
“We see this as the start of a new golden age for Big Oil’s reborn
Seven Sisters,” said analysts led by Michele Della Vigna, referring to
the seven largest non-state oil companies. It is “also a favorable
environment for returns in the commodity.”
Crude’s slump since the middle of 2014 wiped out some smaller
companies and changed the way the biggest operate as they continue to
drive down costs in an attempt to survive. A downturn is typically
followed by a period of relative plenty as the cost of getting new
barrels out of the ground takes time to catch up with the crude price,
widening profit margins.
The majors are leading the pack. While crude’s collapse pushed the
weight of oil companies in equity indexes to about 5 percent, less than
half their normal level, Big Oil is now in a position to regain its
standing. The slump culled smaller drillers and has left the larger ones
with the opportunity to take more market share.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total SA and BP Plc are among the majors that
reported the highest earnings in years last quarter. Some even started
share buybacks and others are promising higher dividends.
Much, much more at the link.
Tomorrow, we should expect a story from Goldman Sachs telling us that the global glut of oil will lead to a plunge in the price of Brent and WTI, leading to the imminent bankruptcy of most of the major oil companies. LOL.
