CLR EUR Type Curves Up To 1.1 Million BOE In The Bakken -- March 27, 2018

I've been waiting for this presentation for quite some time with all the recent activity in the Bakken -- CLR's most recent presentation, link here. Quickly, because I have more important things to do, the things that caught my attention that are new:

• 34 slides
• 2018: a breakout year for CLR
• 100% funded from internal cash flow
• $2 billion for D&C
• 78% of D&C targeting the Bakken and the Springer (SCOOP)
• targeting 17% to 24% YoY production growth; targeting annual 285K to 300K boe per day
• up to $1 billion (rounded) in free cash flow with $60 WTI and $3 Henry Hub
• continue to reduce debt
• free cash flow to reduce debt
• additional non-core asset divestitures
• net reservoir acres / hbp
• Bakken: 802,000 net acres / 90%
• STACK: 409,500 net acres (I did not realize it was this much, compared to the Bakken) / 60%
• SCOOP: 724,000 (ditto) / 60%
• production
• north (North Dakota): 175,563 boepd
• south (Oklahoma): 111,422 boepd
• Bakken continues to deliver record results (well / 30-day avg boepd / % oil / formation)
• Tarentaise Federal 1-19H (2,126 / 79% / MB)
• Tarentaise Federal 3-19H (2,074 / 805 / MB)
• Tarentaise Federal 5-19H (2,034 / 79% / MB)
• Tarentaise Federal 12-19H2 (1,848 / 79% / TF2)
• Holstein Federal 8-25H (2,015 / 83% / MB)
• Wiley 7-25H (1,966 / 76% / MB)
• Akron Federal 7-27H (1,853 / 79% / MB)
• Radermecher 2-22H1 (1,833 / 79% / TF1)
• Monroe 7-2H (2,055 / 80% / MB)
• Monroe 6-2H  (2,869 / 79% /  MB)
• EUR type curves: 1.1 million boe
• 134 optimized completions
• 125% ROR
• PV-10 up 47% per well compared to previous type curve
• interesting term on slide 16: "children wells" / "parent well"-- we've blogged about that only once or twice in the past; a reader working for HAL alerted me to that "new term" maybe a year or so ago
• children wells are producing 20% higher than parent wells (we've seen something similar in the Bakken); 50% reduction in drill time; 20% reduction in CWC
• history of EUR type curves:
• 2011: 430 mboe
• 2014: 603 mboe
• 2015: 800 mboe
• 1H17: 980 mboe
• 2018: 1,100 mboe; payout period down to ten months 

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Notes to the Granddaughters

Close Encounters With Humankind: A Paleoanthropolgist Investigates Our Evolving Species
San-Hee Lee with Shin-Young Yoon
c. 2015

Chapter 1: Are We Cannibals

• there may be cannibalistic behavior, but there are no cannibals
• Fore, Australia, in the 1950s
• the spread of an unknown disease
• tremors and convulsions: kuru -- "shaking" in the indigenous language
• also called "laughing disease" because patients would fall into fits of nonstop laughter
• a very long incubation period: normally five to 20 years
• the last reported person to have the disease died in 2005, but he was infected in the 1960s
• after the incubation period, the patient usually dies within a year of the first symptoms
• Daniel Gajdusek: documented the existence of a prion disease for the first time
• another prion-related disease: Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease
• Gajdusek: Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1976
• currently, scientists hypothesize that the kuru epidemic started with the funerary rituals for one person who must have had kuru, which was endemic to the population

Chapter 2: The Birth of Fatherhood

• there is no question that the human family is unique: human families involve adult men
• "couvade syndrome": sympathetic pregnancy and labor experience among (prospective) fathers

Chapter 3: Who Were the First Hominin Ancestors?

• Propconsul  and Ramapithecus: first candidates; subsequently, the DNA said "no"
• Australopithecus africanus: DNA, yes, but fossil record dated A. africanus to only 2 - 3 million years ago; too recent
• then, Mary Leakey and Donald Johanson: A. afarensis found to be 3 - 3.5 million years old; "Lucy"
• walked upright before developing an enlarged brain
• "Lucy" resulted in a paradigmatic shift
• bipedalism, not enlarged brains, would be the defining characteristic for an ancestral human
• mid-1990s: several ancestral hominins much older than A. afarensis; also bipedal
• Australopithecus anamensis, 3.9 - 4.2 million years ago
• heated debate whether to add a third candidate, A Anamensis to A. afarensis and A. africanus
• it's possible A. anamensis might simply be another A. afarensis
• issue becomes more complicated in the early 2000s with three new candidates for "earliest ancestor"
• 1999: two new candidates
• Sahelanthropus tchadensis, discovered in Toumai, Chad (central Africa); 6 - 7 million years go; too little fossil to be more sure
• Orrorin guenensis (no doubt named after a fossil of a senator in the US Senate, LOL), Tugen Hills, Kenya, East Africa; also 6 - 7 million years ago; femur shows traits of bipedalism
• most recent addition: Ardipithecus ramidus, discovered in Aramis, Ethiopia; 4.4 million yeas ago
• another reversal: bipedalism in doubt
• the problem: A. ramidus may have been a tree-climber
• one possibility: the three candidates may be members of the various ape lineages that roamed before hominins began, instead of being the earliest member of the hominin lineage

Chapter 4: Big-Brained Babies Give Moms Big Grief

• childbirth in humans cannot (as a rule) be done alone: "social" childbirth
• origin of "social" childbirth goes back at least 50,000 years; CT scan of Neanderthal newborn

Chapter 5: Meat Lovers R Us

• first source of "meat" for hominins -- bones

Chapter 6: Got Milk?

• co-evolution of humans and cows
• in the last 10,000 years, humans evolved the ability to drink milk into adulthood from a series of genetic mutations in the lactase gene
• but also, milk itself has changed; the genetic makeup of the cows that produce milk has changed through domestication
• genetics and anthropology have shown that humans have continued to evolve recently, at an even faster rate than we did over the previous 5 million years (author will come back to this later)

Chapter 7: A Gene for Snow White

• lighter skin among humans

Chapter 8: Granny Is an Artist

• when did longevity begin? with sapiens or with erectus
• longevity and the blossoming of art

Chapter 9: Did Farming Bring Prosperity

Chapter 10: Peking Man and the Yakuza

• yakuza: the notorious crime organization of Japan
• Peking Man was discovered in Zhoukoudian, China, in the 1920s
• fossils vanished at harbor of Beijing, 1941, in preparation for transportation to the US; last time they were ever to be seen
• now, ten years earlier, the author was told a yakuza rite would include Peking Man fossils
• if legitimate --- wow!
• author declined the invitation -- wow, even sadder (too dangerous to accept)
• the Peking Man fossils have never been rediscovered
• the molds still exist
• argument that Peking man is not Homo erectus

Chapter 11: Asia Challenges Africa's Stronghold on the Birthplace of Humanity

• the Dmanisi fossils

Chapter 12: Cooperation Connects You and Me

• is helping others written in our DNA?
• 1.8 million years of altruism

Chapter 13: King Kong

• was King Kong real? Gigantopithecus

Chapter 14: Breaking Back

Chapter 15: In Search of the Most Humanlike Face

• Homo rudolfensis
• what makes a face "humanlike" anyway 
• KNM-EM 62000: discovered in Koobi Fora, a renowned paleo-anthropological site in northern Kenyz
• the most famous family in the field of anthropology: the Leakeys

Chapter 16: Our Changing Brains

• adult brains and child brains are different
• growth -- not physical size but the number of synapses
• big brains need lean faces
• "...for the skull to get bigger, the muscles holding down the bones that make up the skull have to become smaller first, to allow the skull to grow unencumbered. The biggest muscle connected to the skull is the masticatory (chewing) muscle. In other words, for the brain to get bigger, the masticatory muscles have to get smaller. Interestingly, a paper published in 2004 featured an experiment showing that a mutation in a gene (MYH16) to make the chewing muscle small led to an enormously big skull in mice, making this hypothesis more plausible."
• there are indications that in the last 50,000 years, human brains might actually be getting smaller; if true, no one knows why, but that's where research is headed

Chapter 17: You Are a Neanderthal!

Chapter 18: The Molecular Clock Does Not Keep Time

• come back to this chapter later

Chapter 19: Denisovans: The Asian Neanderthals

• come back to this chapter later

Chapter 20: Hobbits

Chapter 21: Seven Billion Humans, One Single Race?

• it is not clear when and where the concept of race originated
• if a race is not like a biological species, researchers keen on proving that race exist as a natural category might then consider subspecies, a subclassification within the same species. A subspecies is a population that has been isolated to the point that it is on a trajectory to become a different species if the isolation continues. Subspecies are sometimes defines as sharing less than 85% of their genes with the other subpopulations of their species designation (don't humans - chimps share 99% of their genetic material?), in order to be considered on their way to becoming a different species.
• key: prolonged isolation

Chapter 22: Are Humans Still Evolving?

• wisdom teeth