Long, Long Note Regarding An MRO Pad -- Initial Production, If Accurate, Set New Bakken Records -- March 27, 2018

Update:

March 31, 2018: see comments below --

FYI: 33535 by Marathon in January produced 61,186 barrels in 21 days if the information is correct. At that rate for 31 days it would have been 90,322. 

#33535: Arkin 44-12TFH Bench 1. Recent lone well in Bailey looked like 45 stages with only 6 million lbs. of proppant? Comment: I do remember Lynn Helms suggesting the first bench of the Three Forks might have better wells than the middle Bakken. Overall, the middle Bakken will produce more due to a larger footprint, but the Three Forks, upper bench, well vs well, might actually produce better wells. Truly amazing, isn't it?

March 28, 2018: when I saw the initial monthly production data for #30135 below, I assumed the data had to be wrong, but then when I saw similar data from its sister wells, I figured the data had to be correct (there couldn't have been that many typos). But these monthly production numbers are quite incredible. When I questioned whether the data might be in error, a reader wrote (see first comment):

The improvement in output - most specifically the early months (and Marathon has been on an absolute tear lately) - would lead me to believe the latest iterations of fracturing are showing results like the ones you just posted.

Perhaps more explanations will be forthcoming on the next conference call, but effective introduction of micro proppants, skillful implementation of diversion products, competent monitoring of real time seismic which allow extensive fracturing in the most carbon-rich areas all tend to produce more hydrocarbons.

If the operators are using the elevated, induced pressure from the frac to "push" oil to the wellbore, more will be recovered - at least in the early going - from these recent completions.

The dynamic evolution in unconventional production continues at a still-dizzying speed as these above numbers indicate.

Original Post
For newbies: to put these wells-- down below -- in perspective --

• if you have one well, and the first month's production is 10,000 bbls of oil, open a bottle of champagne
• if you have six wells on one pad, and the average initial monthly production for each well works out to 10,000 bbls of oil, go out for a steak dinner and order two bottles of champagne
• if you have one well, and the first month's production is 30,000 bbls of oil, hire a financial advisor, take him/her to dinner with you; order at least three bottles of champagne
• if you have six wells on one pad, and the average initial monthly production of each well works out to 30,000 bbls of oil, quit your day job, move to Hawaii, and take your financial advisor with you; buy a vineyard in Napa Valley, California
• if you have six wells on a pad like the one below: call Warren Buffett; ask him if he needs another partner

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This note is a big deal, at least for me. This is something new for me. The  looks like the other gazillion posts on the blog regarding initial production data, but this one is clearly different. If you are at all interested in the Bakken, spend some time on this one.

Also, please help me out if I've made obvious errors. Of if you see something I missed. Or if I'm seeing something that doesn't exist, let me know.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and factual errors. I will correct them when found. The errors will not detract from the overall "picture" of this incredible pad.

Disclaimer: when I first started the post, I said that the production data for #30135 was most likely in error at the NDIC site. Once I completed production data for all the wells on the pad -- maybe I was really, really, really wrong.

Note: there are six wells / six file numbers identified on the pad, but there are seven horizontals clearly identified on the NDIC map; that hasn't been sorted out yet.

Note: this is something I had not seen before or if I had, I have missed it, or I did not miss it but did not pay attention to it. Whatever. But now I know I will watch for it. These wells are in the Antelope oil field, targeting the SANISH POOL. Some of these wells target the middle Bakken, some the first bench of the Three Forks and get this, one targets the second bench of the Three Forks. 
 

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Based on a sixth sense that sometimes helps me with the blog, my hunch -- this is an error and will eventually be corrected. Until then, we can dream, can't we (see disclaimer above):

• 30135, 4,881, MRO, Deane USA 24-22H, Antelope, Sanish, t12/17; cum 99K in 43 days; (and I'm sure the first full month of production (73,138 bbls crude oil; 111,373 mcf natural gas) is incorrect; 111,373 mcf = 18,556 boe + 73,138 bo = 91,693 boe in one full month, clearly a Bakken record, and clearly an error that will be corrected. Later, October 31, 2021: this is how far we've come. This was not an error; this is just how incredible the Bakken can be and it ever surprised me. These numbers are correct.
  

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	31	73138	73190	17241	111373	18783	84433
SANISH	12-2017	12	25957	25025	0	36007	0	33113

The geologist's report is not yet scanned into the file report.

API: 33-053-06522.  FracFocus: 

• fracked 10/21/2017 - 11/18/2017
• 15,987,691 gallons of water = 133,417,281 lbs of water
• water: 89.74% of total mass of injection fluid
• sand: 9.9962% of total mass of injection fluid
• 133,417,281 is 89.74% of what
• 133,417,281 = 0.8974 x ?
• 133,417,281 / 0.8974 = 148,670,918 lbs of injection fluid
• 0.09962 x 148,670,918 = 14,810,597 lbs of sand
• since my estimates usually come in low, this frack probably used 16 million lbs or more of sand (a huge frack) -- corresponds with the fracks for the wells on the same pad

The graphics (see also this post):

I said that the initial data presented for #30135 has to be in error, but look at the production data for the other five wells on the same pad:

• 33290, 4,204, MRO, Lena USA 14-22H, four sections, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages; 11.6 million lbs, t12/17; cum 94K 1/18; cum 422K 8/21;
  
• 30133, 4,855, MRO, Veronica USA 14-22TFH, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages, 12 million lbs, t12/17; cum 96K 1/18; cum 346K 8/21;
  
• 30488, 4,144, MRO, TAT USA 14-22H, Antelope, Sanish 36 stages, 15 million lbs, t12/17; cum 89K 1/18; cum 361K 8/12;
  
• 30131, 2,420, MRO, Blue Creek USA 14-22TFH-2B, Antelope, Sanish, Three Forks B2, 39 stages; 12.2 million lbs, t1/18; cum 15K 1/18; cum 218K 8/21;
  
• 30135, see above;
• 30134, 3,503, MRO, Rough Coulee USA 24-22TFH, Antelope, Sanish, 48 stages, 12.2 million lbs, t1/18; cum 73K 1/18; cum 327K 8/21;
  

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30134:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	31	67920	67279	31864	125210	21673	95889
SANISH	12-2017	15	4933	4756	0	9145	0	8589

30131:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	23	14898	14719	4777	24077	3686	18732

30488:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	31	62812	63010	49335	100083	17944	75102
SANISH	12-2017	13	26560	25606	0	42525	0	39563

30133:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	31	46219	47461	39112	75354	14042	56119
SANISH	12-2017	17	50049	48251	4870	87397	0	81788

33290:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	31	55287	55549	30460	101037	51139	43594
SANISH	12-2017	16	39157	38502	13572	69785	0	65414