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Friday, December 7, 2018

Wage Inflation? Nope. Not Enough Workers? Nope. Economy Booming? Nope. Fed Plans To Raise Rates To Slow The Economy? Yup -- December 7, 2018

... and then folks wonder what the market is tanking. This has nothing to do with tariffs. This is all about the Fed. 

From CNBC: job growth falls short of expectations in November.
  • 155,000 payrolls created vs 198,000 estimate  -- see below --  using the new numbers, 155,000 is right at "economic stagnation"
  • nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 in November, the Labor Department says
  • economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payroll growth of 198,000
  • the average hourly earnings gain of 0.2 percent fell short of estimates for a 0.3 percent increase 
  • October's jobs count was revised lower from an initially reported 250,000 to 237,000.
Again, Trump saw this coming. I find it amazing he gets these things right. The smartest guys in the room, regarding jobs, wages, the economy, supposedly the "Fed." And the Fed continues to raise rates and plans to raise rates again this month. About the last thing that's needed right now. And Trump was very, very aware of this. Weeks ago.

I quit tracking "jobs" data some months ago. As a reminder, linked at the sidebar at the right:
The Magic Numbers (changed with the Trump administration -- see earlier pages -- at the link -- for previous "magic numbers")
First time claims, unemployment benefits: 275,000 (> 250,000: economic stagnation) 
New jobs: 150,000 (< 150,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)
*************************************
And With This, I Think I Will Call It A Morning -- See You Later Today


I had a dozen pair of very expensive cowboy boots, each with a different exotic leather, including shark, elk, elephant, ostrich, that I had purchased over the years, mostly from a western boot and clothing store at the south end of Williston, on the west side of the street. I'm sure folks remember that store. The first purchases were made in the 1970s; most in the early 80s. Most of the boots had never been worn; all were in pristine condition, and all in original boxes.

About one year ago, I gave them all away -- free, no receipt, no tax write-off, nothing -- I simply walked into a western boot store on Main Street, Grapevine, TX, asked the owner if she would like a dozen pair of incredibly nice boots. She had a huge business in re-selling top-of-the-line boots. All I wanted was to make sure the boots got a nice home. I took photographs of all of them and that was it. Never looked back. I don't know her name; she doesn't know mine.

I never thought about the possibility the boots might have been confiscated had I taken them to California.

And yes, one was python.

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