One way to raise the price of oil: shut down the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. Of course, the greatest effect will be felt on the west coast where oil / gasoline prices are already much higher that those in the rest of the US. The pipeline is closed a precaution after a 7.0 magnitude earthquake. The pipeline moves an average of 500K bopd.
WTI after the pipeline shutdown announcement: drops 82 cents (1.6%); now trading at $50.63.
****************************** How Many Times Have We Seen This Movie?
Wanting to know when funding runs out this time, I googled government funding runs out when -- this was the screenshot of the results, first page, first hits:
By the way, the answer: December 7, 2018, and other than Homeland Security not much else is affected. Clever how US Congress managed that.
*******************************
Externalities
And this is why the UN had to include this summary paragraph, the last paragraph in the IPCC Third Assessment Report, Chapter 14, Section 14.2.2.2:
“In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research
and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled
non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
Whiting (5): two Niemitalo permits; two Olson permits, and one Periot permit, all in Williams County
Oasis (3): one Barron permit, Burke County; and, two Borden Federal permits, both in Williams County
EOG (3): two Austin permits, Mountrail County; and, one Clarks Creek permit in McKenzie County
XTO; a Janice permit in Williams (hopefully named after one of my childhood sweethearts)
Newfield: a Sorenson Federal permit in McKenzie County
NP Resources: a Mosser Federal permit in Billings County
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
34276, 1,385, Whiting, Thomas 13-3TFH, Truax, t10/18; cum 7K after 11 days;
33283, 609, Whiting, Talkington 21-30-2PH, Bell, t10/18; cum 7K after 17 days;
33282, 788, Whiting, Talkington 21-30-1PH, Bell, t10/18; cum 10K after 24 days;
********************
Comment
Over the years, especially during the early days of the boom, "we" were told that by experts that the kind of results seen in the Talkington wells above were "not economic." Hold that thought.
The Bakken, now, is so incredibly predictable, operators know exactly what they will "get" in any given well in the Bakken before drilling. Scroll down the lists of "new wells reporting" (linked at the sidebar at the top right) and dare to suggest that I am wrong.
And, Whiting continues to drill these "non-economic" wells.
Several years ago, Whiting suggested they could "make money" on $21-oil.
Amazing graphic / link from a reader. The data is from 2014, but probably not a lot different than 2018:so, apples to apples.
AEI’s Perry writes: “Most European
countries (including Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Belgium) if they
joined the US, would rank among the poorest one-third of US states on a
per-capita GDP basis, and the UK, France, Japan and New Zealand would
all rank among America’s very poorest states, below No. 47 West
Virginia, and not too far above No. 50 Mississippi. Countries like
Italy, S. Korea, Spain, Portugal and Greece would each rank below
Mississippi as the poorest states in the country.”
Here is the chart:
But look at this. from wiki:
North Dakota is the fastest-growing state in U.S. by GDP. Its growth rate is about 8.3%. The economy of North Dakota had a gross domestic product of $36.8 billion in 2013. The per capita income in 2013 was $50,899, ranked 16th in the nation. The three-year median household income from 2002–2004 was $39,594, ranking 37th in the U.S.
Okay, so in 2013, North Dakota's GDP per capita was less than $51,000.
One year later, North Dakota's GDP per capita was almost $73,000.
Based on the Federal Reserve, North Dakota GDP per capita:
2018: $72,847.
2014, the all-time peak: $78,808
Most interesting data points on the chart above:
California at #10 much higher than one might expect;
Idaho, coming in just ahead of Mississippi (dead last) -- but both besting South Korea, and Idaho; even besting Japan and New Zealand
The most amazing thing about all of this: I doubt most NoDaks know how significant this is.
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The Book Page
Seriously, seriously, seriously. For serious book readers with reading abilities greater than that of an eighth grader, I seriously cannot recommend Ben Orlin's Math With Bad Drawings: Illuminating The Ideas That Shape Our Reality, c. 2018.
It's a fun book to read, but doesn't break any new ground. It reads like a blog and the "bad drawings" are huge distractions.
My hunch is that this is the kind of book middle school (and probably high school math teachers, unfortunately) will recommend to their students.
I find myself going back to the book often throughout the day to read snippets -- it is entertaining but unrewarding.
The ultimate tic-tac-toe game might be worth the price of the book; some sections on probability are reasonably good; and, the author's discussion of the US electoral college is nice.
Speaking of the US electoral college: thank goodness our Founding Fathers understood the importance of protecting our population-challenged states: each state gets two US senators; and, for the most part, states are still mandating that all electors align with the state's popular vote.
These is, frustratingly enough, no index. There are end notes at the end of the book which are very, very rewarding.
There's probably more to the book than I realize -- if so, very subtle. Sublime? I don't think so.
I'm glad it was a freebie. I'll keep it around for a year and then donate it to a school.
From Chapter 17, "The Last .400 Hitter," p. 223:
As baseball came of age in the 1850s, a player batted until he either hit the ball into play, or swung and missed three times. With patient enough batters, the game flowed like cold molasses. Thus, in 1858 (before the US Civil War), "called strikes" were born.
If a player let a juicy pitch sail past, then it was treated as equivalent to swinging and missing.
But now the pendulum swung too far; cautious pitchers refused to throw anything hittable. The solution, introduced in 1863 (during the middle of the US Civil War), was to also call "balls": pitches deemed too far off target for the batter to hit. Enough such "balls" would grant the batter a free walk to first base.
Walks stumped [cricket fans]. Cricket's closest equivalent is a "wide," generally viewed as a mistake by the thrower. So batting average (BA) ignored walks, as if the at-bats had never occurred. Walks weren't deemed an official statistic until 1910.
Today, the most skilled and patient hitters walk 18% or 195 of the time; their reckless, swing-happy peers, just 2% or 3%. Hence ... a convoluted [mathematical] expression for what we now call "on-base percentage," or OBP. It's your rate of getting on base, via either hits or walks -- in ther words, your rate of not making an out.
Which statistic better predicts the number of runs a team will score: BA or OBP? Running the correlations for 2017, BA is pretty strong, with a coefficent of0.73. But OBP is outstanding, with a coefficient of 0.91.
33227, 1,149, CLR, Kennedy 5-31H, Dimmick, another big Kennedy well, 62 stages; 12.6 million lbs; t8/18; cum 47K 9/18; the Kennedy wells are tracked here;
This is simply an incredible report at so many levels. And US production is greatly constrained, and reserves were based on WTI at $50 +/- a few bucks. Imagine the reserves if priced at $100.
Link here. How many nails in the Hubbert peak oil theory coffin?
Stronger oil and natural gas prices combined with continuing
development of shales and low permeability formations drove producers of
crude oil and natural gas in the United States to report new all-time
record levels of proved reserves for both fuels in 2017.
Total U.S. oil
reserves in 2017 exceeded a brief, one-year, 47-year-old record,
highlighting the importance of crude oil development in shales and low
permeability plays, mainly in the Southwest.
The new record for natural
gas extends a longer-term trend of development, mainly in shale plays in
the Northeast. Both U.S. proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas
are approximately double their levels from a decade ago.
These new
proved reserves records were established in 2017 despite production of
crude oil at levels not seen since 1972, and record natural gas
production.
Highlights are listed below.
Oil highlights
Proved reserves of crude oil in the United States
increased 19.5% (6.4 billion barrels) to 39.2 billion barrels at
Year-End 2017, setting a new U.S. record for crude oil proved reserves.
The previous record was 39.0 billion barrels set in 1970.
Proved reserves of lease condensate in the United States
increased 16% (0.4 billion barrels) to 2.8 billion barrels at Year-End
2017. Since 2009, to provide a clearer picture of U.S. liquid fuel
resources, EIA features combined proved reserves of U.S. crude oil and
lease condensate in its reporting.
U.S. production of crude oil and lease condensate
increased by 6% from 2016 to year-end 2017. Crude oil production in 2017
reached its highest level since 1972.
The annual average spot price for a barrel of West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, increased 20% in 2017,
from $42.59 in 2016 to $51.03. At the end of 2017, the WTI spot price
exceeded $60 per barrel for the first time since June 2015.
Producers in Texas added 3.3 billion barrels of crude oil
and lease condensate proved reserves, the largest net increase of all
states in 2017. The increase was a result of increased prices and
development in the Permian Basin of the Spraberry Trend and the
Wolfcamp/Bone Spring shale play.
The Wolfcamp/Bone Spring shale play in the Permian Basin
surpassed the Bakken/Three Forks play in the Williston Basin to become
the largest oil-producing tight play in the United States in 2017.
The next largest net gains in crude oil and lease
condensate proved reserves in 2017 were in New Mexico (1.0 billion
barrels) and in the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (729 million
barrels).
Natural gas highlights
Proved reserves of natural gas increased by 123.2 trillion
cubic feet (Tcf) (36.1%) to 464.3 Tcf at year-end 2017—a new U.S.
record for total natural gas proved reserves. The previous U.S. record
was 388.8 Tcf, set in 2014.
U.S. production of total natural gas increased by 4% from 2016 to 2017, reaching a new record level.
The share of natural gas from shale compared with total
U.S. natural gas proved reserves increased from 62% in 2016 to 66% at
year-end 2017.
The annual average spot price for natural gas at the
Louisiana Henry Hub increased by 21% from $2.47 per million British
thermal units (MMBtu) in 2016 to $2.99 per MMBtu in 2017.
Producers in Pennsylvania added 28.1 Tcf of natural gas
proved reserves, the largest net increase of all states in 2017, as a
result of increased prices and development of the Marcellus and Utica
shale plays.
The next largest net gains in natural gas proved reserves
by volume in 2017 were in Texas (26.9 Tcf) and Louisiana (18.4 Tcf) as a
result of development of the Wolfcamp/Bone Spring shale play in the
Permian Basin and the Haynesville/Bossier shale play in eastern Texas
and northern Louisiana.
************************************
The Book Page
The Bible, Homer (Iliad and Odyssey), and Shakespeare -- one could spend a lifetime on these works (and some college professors probably have) and never exhaust the treasure trove of writing.
In the Bible the euphemisms and metaphors are incredible. Character development, based on very, very few lines, is equally incredible.
Today, going through Genesis, starting again, my third reading in the past few weeks, I come to the land of Nod -- everyone is familiar with the land of Nod. I knew it was east of Eden but never thought any more about it until today. Today, from wiki:
"Nod" (נוד) is the Hebrew root of the verb "to wander" (לנדוד). Therefore, to dwell in the land of Nod is usually taken to mean that one takes up a wandering life. Genesis 4:17 relates that after arriving in the Land of Nod, Cain's wife bore him a son, Enoch, in whose name he built the first city.
Others would ague that the "land of Nod" is a physical location.
But as a metaphor -- priceless. The land of Nod. East of Eden. The sun also rises. Seems like these could be the titles of some great books.
Two things: the metaphor, "the land of Nod," to become a nomad, and then the most amazing thing: early in the Bible, written millennia ago, the writer opens up the whole issue of civilization, moving from a nomadic life to a "city" life.
Our oldest granddaughter spend some weeks studying the transition from nomadic societies to settled societies, the virtues of each.
Enoch: son of Jared, father of Methusaleh, great-grandfather of Noah, subject of the deuterocanonical Book of Enoch.
From another source: Enoch, destroyed in the flood; re-build, new name, Uruk or New Uruk; in time the name Uruk ceased to be a name at all and became merely a word meaning City.
In later cuneiform this city was known as Ereck, and at the present time the site is known by the local people as Warka.
Uruk, just a few miles northwest of Ur, lies about halfway between Baghdad and the mouth of the Tigris/Euphrates rivers on the Persian Gulf.
33227, 1,149, CLR, Kennedy 5-31H, Dimmick, another big Kennedy well, 62 stages; 12.6 million lbs; t8/18; cum 47K 9/18; the Kennedy wells are tracked here;
33110, conf, CLR, Wiley 10-25H, Pershing, a huge well;
30543, conf, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-6H, a "50K" well -- huge; again --
The sun was shining and wind filled the sails of the 44 major U.S.
exploration and production (E&P) companies we track in the third
quarter of 2018 as they collectively reported a 35% increase in pre-tax
operating income over the previous quarter. It’s been an up-and-down
year. Increased efficiency and rising output from the transformation to
large-scale, manufacturing-style exploitation of premier resource plays
moved the E&P sector solidly into the black in early 2018 after
three years of losses. But profits stagnated in the second quarter on a
decline in revenues as widening differentials, primarily in the Permian
Basin, negated the impact of higher NYMEX prices. Today, we explain how
producers overcame the headwinds to resume profit growth in the third
quarter, but warn that future returns for certain E&Ps could be
jeopardized by the sudden plunge in oil prices.
I might come back to this one later, but right now there is an indication that neighboring wells may soon be fracked. Right now, neighboring wells are still on confidential list.
This is a great EOG well that has just come off line:
17416, 1,124, EOG, Austin 16-19H, Parshall, t12/08; cum 859K 8/18; the well came off line 8/18 and remains off line as of 9/18;
December 21, 2018: see this post also. But the "ND Winter" pads will be followed here.
Original Post
The wells:
35800, 930, Enerplus, Frost 149-93-07A-12H-TF-LL, Mandaree, t10/20; cum 152K 7/21; cum 259K 6/22; cum 312K 3/23;
35801, 1,588, Enerplus, Hail 149-93-07A-12H, Mandaree, t10/20; cum 183K 7/21; cum 251K 6/22; cum 288K 3/23;
35802, 834, Enerplus, Sleet 149-93-07A-12H, Mandaree, t10/20; cum 192K 7/21; cum 276K 6/22;
35803, 1,599, Enerplus, Blizzard 149-93-07A-12H, Mandaree, t10/20; cum 196K 7/21; cum 296K 6/22; cum 288K 3/23;
25736, 2,347, Enerplus, Snow .... , t6/15; cum 549K 11/19 -- wow! Only 39 stages;
see full production profile at this post; note multiple "jumps" in production over the years; came off line 11/19; remains off line 3/20; back on line 4/21; cum 557K 7/21; cum 580K 6/22; cum 605K 3/23;
25735, 1,773, Enerplus, Rain ..., t6/15; cum 374K 11/19; came off line 11/19; remains off line 3/20; back on line 4/21; cum 382K 7/21; cum 392K 6/22; cum 403K 3/23;
25738, 1,946, Enerplus, Sun ..., t8/14; cum 408K 3/20; was off line 3/19 - 9/19; small jump in production; cum 433K 7/21; cum 452K 6/22; cuum 463K 3/23;
25737, IA/1,278, Enerplus, Wind ...., t9/14; cum 360K 3/20; was off line 3/19 - 9/19; huge jump in production; see this post; back on line 5/21; cum 365K 7/21; cum 368K 10/20; off line 11/21; remains off line 6/22; back on line; cum 374K 3/23;
Active rigs (note: some folks suggest that there is some double-counting, and that the number of active rigs is closer to 62 than 66 but this has been going on for a couple of days now) (on another note, it is hard to believe that "185" is still showing up as the number of active rigs at one time -- only four years ago):
Comments: Whiting has permits for a 2-well Link pad in section 12-150-102; permits for another 2-well Link pad in section 14-150-102; Enerplus has permits for a 5-well "ND winter" pad in section 7-149-93; and, most interesting, Lime Rock has a permit for a Birdbear well in Dimond oil field, #35797, section 15-160-91;
Note: in light of the better wells we are seeing, it will be interesting to follow the Whiting Link wells. Based on the amount of (or better said, lack of) activity in the area of the Link permits/wells, I would think it would be a "tier 2" play -- CLR/Whiting/Oasis -- one of the three, I forget which -- in a recent corporate presentation said that based on their better completions, they were adding some "tier 2" locations to their core positions. This may be an example. The Foreman Butte oil field is a bit south, and a bit west of Alexander. So, for my dad and for me, when driving south from Williston and taking that big swing to the east, we would look to our right and see Foreman Butte, where the deer and the antelope play. We would also see that huge (new) truck stop, and a man's camp that might now be boarded up. At one time, it was a fairly busy man camp. Wow, that seems like a long time ago.
The graphic:
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
33530, 1,672, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-11, Elm Tree, t10/18; cum 19K over 16 days which extrapolates to 36K over 30 days;
33529,2,054, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-12, Elm Tree, t10.18; cum 19K over 13 days which extrapolates to 45K over 30 days;
Later, 3:32 p.m. CT: I made a huge mistake in the original post suggesting that Exxon had the opportunity to partner with GE on a large wind farm in Texas but chose to go with a foreign company. A reader correctly pointed out that GE does not "build/manage" wind farms. GE provides components for the wind turbines. In this case, it is still possible that GE will be involved with the wind farm in Texas as a subcontractor or partner with Orsted. This was a big mistake on my part. Sorry. I stand corrected.
Original Post
Fascinating story from Bloomberg. Excellent use of renewable energy. Exxon will build a wind farm and a solar farm to help electrify their operations in the Permian. The story is fascinating on many levels, but I was mostly interested in this one data point. This gives one an idea of how incredibly big the Permian shale sector is:
One area of the Permian, called the Delaware Basin, consumed the
equivalent of 350 megawatts this summer, tripling its load from 2015.
That’s enough to power about 280,000 U.S. homes. Providers say demand is
likely to triple again by 2022.
Think about that: just "one" area of the Permian consumed the equivalent of 350 MW this summer, tripling its load from 2015; enough to power almost 300,000 US homes; and it is likely that electricity demand will triple again by 2022.
GE to focus on aviation, power and renewable energy. ... GE aims to strengthen its balance sheet by reducing Industrial net debt by about USD 25 billion (EUR 21.4bn) by 2020. The company is continuing with efforts to shrink GE Capital and targets sales of USD 25 billion in energy and industrial finance assets by 2020 -- June 26, 2018.
Exxon partnered with a Danish company to provide its electricity power needs. Exxon did not partner with GE. Say what? Under 12-year agreements with Denmark’s Orsted,
Exxon will buy 500 megawatts of wind and solar power in the Permian
Basin, the fastest growing U.S. oil field. It is the largest ever
renewable power contract signed by an oil company. Terms weren’t disclosed. I think that's the biggest takeaway from this article. Partnering with a Danish company, not an American company. It says a lot about what a company like Exxon thinks of GE right now.
************************************
Washington State Refinery With Ties To Bakken -- New Owners
Apparently he's been fired again, today by CNN. The story does not appear to have been published in The Washington Post based on a google search but conservative outlets are posting the story.
It was probably "the straw that broke the camel's back" as they say, but it seems the firing comes at an interesting moment, just as Jim Acosta arrives back at his post in the White House press pool.
“In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research
and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled
non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction
of future climate states is not possible.”
Where did that come from? I thought you would never ask. See below.
Theft: local news is reporting theft of $1,000-tires/wheels off pick-up trucks. Professionals -- at night -- hydraulic drill lifts truck completely off the ground; wheels with/without locked hub nuts removed in minutes; trucks left on blocks/bricks. This is what irritates me. This type of crime could be stopped "overnight." Why doesn't the government mandate RIFD GPS chips in anything of value? Period. Dot. Or better yet, let the insurance companies do this. Huge drop in premiums/deductibles if anything of value has RIFD GPS chips embedded. This is not rocket science. Drives me nuts. Likewise, anyone traveling to Mexico needs to have one of these chips embedded. We do it for our pets but not ourselves.#MeToo people need to have chips with recording devices embedded before a) going to college; b) going to Washington, DC, to work as interns; c) going to Hollywood to work for anyone; d) going to Central Park in NYC. Until one gets an embedded chip, a concealed handgun might be a good alternative. Wow, how did I end up here?
Meanwhile: I have a copyright on decals to place on vehicles that say: "This vehicle/wheels protected with RIFD/GPS chips." $4.00 apiece. Applied on vehicle above each wheel.
Here is the last paragraph in the IPCC Third Assessment Report, Chapter 14, Section 14.2.2.2:
“In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
This seems fairly easy to read. Pretty easy English. Eighth grade English.
This information was not included in the Summary Report for Policymakers given to the press and public.
If the climate is indeed a coupled non-linear chaotic system (who can doubt the IPCC?) then there is no rational or scientific basis to make a definitive statement about a future state of the climate.
At this point the coupled non-linear chaotic nature of the climate makes scientific observations academically interesting but individually they have no relevance in predicting the future state of the climate. The climate is a system, which means the relationships among these observations are what is important, not the observations themselves.
From Bloomberg: in 2019, US shale operators will spend less and produce more.
Companies such as Continental Resources Inc., Pioneer Natural
Resources Co. and Devon Energy Corp. generated substantial free-cash
flow in the quarter while still clocking production growth well into the
double digits. EOG Resources Inc. made more than $1 billion in the
period, putting it in the same league as veteran majors such as Italy’s
Eni SpA and ConocoPhillips.
“At a $65 to $70 price deck we had a lot of free cash flow being
forecasted but at these levels all that free cash flow is gone,” said
Dane Gregoris, senior vice president at RS Energy Group.
Devon, Occidental and Anadarko were among companies that used excess
cash to buy back shares this year, while others such as EOG hiked
dividends.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
NDIC regulators have given unanimous approval for Kinder Morgan to expand the Roosevelt Gas plant from 50 million cfpd to 200 million cfpd. The plant is located 7.5 miles south of Watford City. By the time the plant is completed, Watford City is growing so quickly that the plant my be less than 7.5 miles from the city -- just saying.
to expand the Roosevelt Gas Plant in McKenzie County by 150 million cubic feet per day
increasing the capacity to process up to 200 million cubic feet per day
Besides the obvious -- more natural gas processing capacity -- but more
importantly, it needs drillers can increased oil production.
For newbies, crude oil production in North Dakota is constrained by:
the price of oil; demand for light oil
takeaway capacity (not much of an issue now that the DAPL is flowing)
flaring (a big issue)
workforce: competition with the Permian
************************************
Getting Ready For Christmas
Her mother said Sophia was moving the nutcracker's jaw for about 20 minutes (?) and the two of them were having a conversation about Christmas. You can see Sophia's hand in the back moving the "lever" and in the front you can barely see the king's beard move up and down.
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The Book Page
I can't wait to get into this book: Math With Bad Drawings, Illuminating the Ideas That Shape Our Reality, Ben Orlin, c. 2018.
I'm read some of it; paged through most of it. Intriguing. Not quite sure what to make of it.
*****************************
The Movie Page
I wish I had the stamina for a 24-hour movie binge. TCM was highlighting Jane Russell yesterday/overnight -- 24 hours. I caught two movies: The Outlaw and This Kind of Girl.
Holy mackerel. I can see why Howard Hughes had trouble getting The Outlaw past the censors in 1941. Now that I've seen it, I would watch it again.
Jane Russell's history is very interesting beginning with her birth in Bemidji, Minnesota. I never knew. From wiki:
Russell married three times, adopted three children, and in 1955 founded Waif, the first international adoption program. She received several accolades for her achievements in films, including having her hand and footprints immortalized in the forecourt of Grauman's Chinese Theatre, and having a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.
In between the movies last night, the TCM host talked about the movie, Jane Russell, Howard Hughes, and RKO.
The references to RKO, of course, jumped out at me because of the references to this movie production company in Rocky Horror Picture Show.
After The Outlaw, an even better movie, This Kind of Girl. Wow, talk about a movie that meets all the criteria for a film noir. From wiki:
A style or genre of cinematographic film marked by a mood of
pessimism, fatalism, and menace. The term was originally applied (by a
group of French critics) to American thriller or detective films made in
the period 1944–54 and to the work of directors such as Orson Welles,
Fritz Lang, and Billy Wilder.
Vincent Price stole the show. If you haven't seen this movie, it's worth watching just to see him (Vincent Price) and ... Mr Magoo.
By the way, this is why 3-D and AR will bring back the old movies. From The Baltimore Sun:
As readers of this blog know, Russell's allure has never been forgotten
by Baltimore movie-lovers. Sun entertainment writer and Maryland Film
Festival 3-D guru Chris Kaltenbach told me a year ago that his ideal
3-D presentation would be to "bring the Jane Russell 1954 3-D
extravaganza 'The French Line' to Baltimore. Hey, a guy can dream,
can't he?"
Also, Martin Hickes, In Praise of Jane Russell. In the clip below, Ms Russell is #27 of 50. It's hard to believe but my wife says she met in person one of the "classic beauties of Hollywood," and, in person, she says, she was even more beautiful than in her pictures. I find that amazing. And uplifting. And wonderful. The toughest part of the Academy Awards show -- when I used to watch many years ago -- was the In Memoriam,
**************************
Music and Hollywood Glamour
Wow, the clip above takes me back to my coming of age years in southern California. Wow, "I had it lucky," as they say.
From Ice Age: "mini-ice-age" in a matter of months? Probably not. I guess it depends on how "matter of months" is defined. For the archives.
From twitter this morning:
*************************************** New England Natural Gas Hookups Update
I had forgotten all about this but the moratorium on new natural gas hookups in Boston and the eastern half of Massachusetts continues. Most of the stories are behind a paywall but if interested google boston moratorium on natural gas hookups update. The ban is effectively "destroying" development in eastern Massachusetts, some say.The moratorium is the result of devastating natural gas explosions earlier this year.MarcellusDrilling calls this a "police state" run amok and I thought my blog was a bit bombastic at times.
*********************************
Canadian Update
Canadian crude oil output continues to grow despite all its problems -- Bloomberg. Data points:
daily average output "will" average about 4.59 million bopd
22,000 bopd more than forecast
this despite two big producers curtailing production by about 160,000 bopd
Okay, folks this is the lede for that story:
Canada’s lingering crude glut isn’t hindering the country’s growing oil
output, according to the National Energy Board’s most recent forecast.
Now this line in the second paragraph:
The raised production outlook comes even as pipeline bottlenecks have
driven Canadian crude prices to record lows and prompted some producers,
including Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Athabasca Oil Corp., to
reduce output by about 160,000 barrels a day, according to estimates by
TD Securities Inc.
It's hard for me to accept the writers' premise when they say "Canada's lingering crude glut isn't hindering the country's growing oil output."
It certainly appears that by their own reporting the glut is "hindering" at least 160,000 bopd from reaching the market.
Pemex (Mexico) doubles Ixachi oil and gas reserves to 750 million boe
production to peak at 80,000 beopd
development cast estimated at $1.5 billion
When I first saw the headline that Pemex "doubles" its reserves at
Ixachi, I was excited. Then I saw the numbers: max production at 80,000
boepd and, reserves increased to 750 million boe. Not exciting.
The Bakken currently produces about 80,000 boe in 90 minutes. Bakken
reserves: for those with exuberant "feelings" about the Bakken, as much
as 50 billion boe, maybe more.
750 million / 50 billion = 1.5%. And that's just the Bakken.
I wonder if we should start measuring pools of oil in "Permians." For
example, the Bakken would be estimated to be 0.25 Permians. The Ixahi
reserves would be 0.00375 Permians. At 268 billion bbls (wiki), Saudi
Arabia's reserves would be 1.34 Permians. I would like to use the Bakken
as the "unit of measure" for any number of reasons, but I would be
voted off the island -- "everyone" would vote for the "Permian."
And then the day we have a massive carbon tax and no one can afford oil
at all -- sort of like the yellow vests in France -- we can take oil off
the "Permian standard."
So, yesterday, Platts says Pemex "doubled its estimate for the Ixachi oil field, putting oil and gas reserves at 750 million boe.
Today, this story from Bloomberg: Pemex has more than tripled its estimated reserves in its Ixachi field. Data points:
the onshore field in Veracruz is now estimated to contain 1.3 billion boe in proven, probably and possible ("3P") reserves
the story sticks with max production at 80,000 bopd (see Platts above, and my comments
the field is currently producing about 2,000 bpd of condensate; hopes to get to 5,000 bpd of condensate by end of 2019
development costs for Ixachi: $1.47 billion for 40 wells = I've done the math three times -- see if you get a different number -- $1.47 billion for 40 wells = $36,750,000 / well
this is Mexico's most important onshore field in 25 years, Pemex says -- if so, Mexico is in a heap of trouble .. 2,000 bbls of condensate a day and that gets them excited
Mexico currently produces about 1.8 million bopd, down from a recent target of 1.95 million bopd
WTI: just below $50 overnight, but now back to $50.68.
*********************************
Back to the Bakken
Wells coming off confidential list today -- Thursday, November 29, 2018:
34590, 2,820, WPX, Grizzly 25-36HIL, four sections, Spotted Horn, 40 stages; 7.9 million lbs, t9/18; cum 33K after 14 days which extrapolates to 69,810 bbls over 30 days;
34322, 588, Nine Point Energy, Sigma Lee 155-103-14-23-8H, Squires, 60 stages; 8 million lbs, t6/18; cum 51K 9/18;
33697, 1,470, Oasis, Lite 5393 31-11 7B, Sanish, 50 stages, 10 million lbs sand and ceramic, t6/18; cum 95K in less than four months;
30544, 1,129, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-4-26A-35-7H, Antelope-Sanish, Three Forks B1, 55 stages; 14.5 million lbs, t6/18; cum 30K constrained;
Active rigs: note -- at least two readers suggest there is some double-counting on a couple of rigs, suggesting that the active number of rigs may be closer to 62 than 66 --
This summer and fall, more than a half dozen companies and midstream
joint ventures have announced plans for new deepwater export terminals
along the Gulf Coast that — if all built — would have the capacity to
load and send out more than 10 MMb/d, which is notable because the U.S.
Lower 48 currently produces 11.2 MMb/d. Most of these projects won’t
get built, of course — export volumes may well continue rising, and the
economics of fully loading VLCCs at deepwater ports are compelling, but
even the most optimistic forecasts suggest that only one or two of
these new terminals will be needed through the early 2020s. So, there’s a
fierce competition on among developers to advance their VLCC-ready
export projects to Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) first. Today, we
discuss highlights from its most recent analysis of deepwater crude export terminals as well as the export growth and
tanker-loading economics that are driving the project-development
frenzy.
So far in 2018, the U.S. has exported more than 524 million barrels
of crude oil and export volumes — lately hovering around the 1.8 MMb/d
mark — are likely to continue increasing next year and in 2020. The
export boom is made possible by the lifting of the ban on most U.S.
crude exports in December 2015 and is driven by rising production in the
Permian, Eagle Ford, SCOOP/STACK and other major plays. U.S. crude
production has reached 11.7 MMb/d — all but 500 Mb/d of it in the Lower
48 — and RBN forecasts that output will rise another 500 Mb/d by April 2019. These
production gains are occurring despite pipeline takeaway constraints out
of the Permian, and may well accelerate in late 2019 and early 2020 as
new pipeline capacity comes online, eliminating bottlenecks between West
Texas and the Gulf Coast.
Prior to the neighboring frack, 500 bbls/month; after the neighboring frack, 5,697 bbls over 14 days which extrapolates to 12,207 bbls/month. Both of the following wells are short laterals.
The well of interest:
23566, 845, Whiting, Kjos 14-13H, one section, Alger, t10/12; cum 98K 9/18; recent production:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
9-2018
14
5697
5470
15432
2388
0
2361
BAKKEN
8-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
7-2018
2
14
0
17
15
0
11
BAKKEN
6-2018
30
539
690
405
551
0
491
BAKKEN
5-2018
31
543
472
383
559
0
497
BAKKEN
4-2018
30
530
651
323
561
0
502
BAKKEN
3-2018
31
629
480
440
617
0
555
BAKKEN
2-2018
28
585
692
403
563
0
507
BAKKEN
1-2018
31
670
692
487
675
0
613
BAKKEN
12-2017
31
768
719
637
776
0
714
BAKKEN
11-2017
29
509
498
402
531
0
475
BAKKEN
10-2017
31
669
727
459
688
0
626
BAKKEN
9-2017
30
631
485
411
636
0
576
BAKKEN
8-2017
31
660
721
550
667
0
605
BAKKEN
7-2017
31
661
471
433
670
0
610
Now, go back to this neighboring well, which came off the confidential list today:
34700, 552, Whiting, Liebl 31-13-2H, Alger, one section, t9/18; cum 7K 9/18; look at #23566, Kjos 14-13H;
NDIC is reporting 66 active rigs, a jump from the previous 62 a couple of days ago. A reader went through the data and suggests there may be an error -- some accidental "double-counting" of a couple of rigs.
Later, by the way, note the rig count in Montana -- see first comment.
NDIC is reporting 66 active rigs, a jump from the previous 62 a couple
of days ago. A reader went through the data and suggests there may be an
error -- some accidental "double-counting" of a couple of rigs.
Active rigs:
$50.22 oh-oh
11/28/2018
11/28/2017
11/28/2016
11/28/2015
11/28/2014
Active Rigs
66
55
37
64
184
Five new permits:
Operators: Kraken Operating
Fields: Lone Tree Lake (Williams)
Comments: Kraken has permits for a 5-well Rixey pad in 33-157-99; sited in SESE section 33, these wells will run north, opposite and parallel to three producing well; see graphic.
Eleven permits renewed:
CLR (5): two Charlotte permits; one each -- Akron, Chicago, and Thorvald -- all in McKenzie County except for Thorvald which is in Dunn County
Newfield (3): three Sorenson Federal permits in McKenzie County
Oasis: one Fraser Federal permit in Williams County
BR: one Abercrombie permit in McKenzie County
XTO: one Rough Federal permit in McKenzie County
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
33906, 842, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-9A-15-1HS, Charlson, t10/18; cum --
34700, 552, Whiting, Liebl 31-13-2H, Alger, t9/18; cum 7K 9/18; look at #23566, Kjos 14-13H; see this post;
34699, 1,078, Whiting, Meiers 44-25-2H, Robinson Lake, t9/18; cum 13K 9/18;
34701, 898, Whiting, Stettner 14-13TFH, Alger, t9/18; cum 3K after 16 days;
Initially, the price of WTI didn't show much change, but now, near the close of the trading day, WTI is down 2.6%; down $1.34; and, now just 22 cents above $50/bbl.
We could see WTI going below $50 by the end of the week. From there ... ?
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.
Or maybe the slump in WTI was due to yet another report of more oil. Peak oil? I don't think so. From Platts:
Pemex (Mexico) doubles Ixachi oil and gas reserves to 750 million boe
production to peak at 80,000 beopd
development cast estimated at $1.5 billion
When I first saw the headline that Pemex "doubles" its reserves at Ixachi, I was excited. Then I saw the numbers: max production at 80,000 boepd and, reserves increased to 750 million boe. Not exciting.
The Bakken currently produces about 80,000 boepd in 90 minutes. Bakken reserves: for those with exuberant "feelings" about the Bakken, as much as 50 billion boe, maybe more.
750 million / 50 billion = 1.5%. And that's just the Bakken.
I wonder if we should start measuring pools of oil in "Permians." For example, the Bakken would be estimated to be 0.25 Permians. The Ixahi reserves would be 0.00375 Permians. At 268 billion bbls (wiki), Saudi Arabia's reserves would be 1.34 Permians. I would like to use the Bakken as the "unit of measure" for any number of reasons, but I would be voted off the island -- "everyone" would vote for the "Permian."
And then the day we have a massive carbon tax and no one can afford oil at all -- sort of like the yellow vests in France -- we can take oil off the "Permian standard."
******************************
Update
One day later, November 29, 2018, this update from Bloomberg regarding the Mexico story above:
Today, this story from Bloomberg: Pemex has more than tripled its estimated reserves in its Ixachi field. Data points:
the onshore field in Veracruz is now estimated to contain 1.3 billion boe in proven, probably and possible ("3P") reserves
the story sticks with max production at 80,000 bopd (see Platts above, and my comments
the field is currently producing about 2,000 bpd of condensate; hopes to get to 5,000 bpd of condensate by end of 2019
development
costs for Ixachi: $1.47 billion for 40 wells = I've done the math three
times -- see if you get a different number -- $1.47 billion for 40
wells = $36,750,000 / well
this is Mexico's most important onshore field in 25 years, Pemex says -- if so, Mexico is in a heap of trouble .. 2,000 bbls of condensate a day and that gets them excited
Mexico currently produces about 1.8 million bopd, down from a recent target of 1.95 million bopd
Later, 3:32 p.m. CT:
see first two comments [at the link above] regarding how much better the Bakken wells
have become over the years. Now this very observant comment from
another reader:
The subtle importance of Larne's comment ought not to be
underestimated as it pertains to the Bakken, other shale plays, and
future potential shale targets.
To now drill WAY faster, with
more precision, and MUCH higher recovery factor (20%+ according to some
operators) will vastly expand the US productive acreage.
I
strongly suspect that Helms et al want an updated USGS assessment for
the Bakken as the current recovery rate of OOIP is now 3 to 5 times
higher than earlier when the USGS projected 7+ billion barrels oil
Technically Recoverable Resource (TRR).
Original Post
Speculators buying up mineral rights in eastern Montana for pennies. The article is behind a New York Times paywall.
It's been my experience that if these "efforts" pay off, it is the
grandchildren that benefit. The vast majority of these mineral acres
will never be developed. But they are great for "flipping" to
unsophisticated investors who get caught up in the "Bakken revolution."
Good luck to all.
Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or
think you may have read here.
We saw a lot of this in
North Dakota some decades ago. My hunch is that Harold Hamm picked up a
lot of minerals in North Dakota many, many years ago, well before the
boom.
But look at this. from wiki:
