WTI Drops Below $50 -- November 29, 2018

WTI: just below $50 overnight, but now back to $50.68.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Thursday, November 29, 2018:

• 34590, 2,820, WPX, Grizzly 25-36HIL, four sections, Spotted Horn, 40 stages; 7.9 million lbs, t9/18; cum 33K after 14 days which extrapolates to 69,810 bbls over 30 days;
• 34322, 588, Nine Point Energy, Sigma Lee 155-103-14-23-8H, Squires, 60 stages; 8 million lbs, t6/18; cum 51K 9/18; 
• 33697, 1,470, Oasis, Lite 5393 31-11 7B, Sanish, 50 stages, 10 million lbs sand and ceramic, t6/18; cum 95K in less than four months;
• 30544, 1,129, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-4-26A-35-7H, Antelope-Sanish, Three Forks B1, 55 stages; 14.5 million lbs, t6/18; cum 30K constrained;

Active rigs: note -- at least two readers suggest there is some double-counting on a couple of rigs, suggesting that the active number of rigs may be closer to 62 than 66 --

$50.13	11/29/2018	11/29/2017	11/29/2016	11/29/2015	11/29/2014
Active Rigs	66	55	39	64	185

RBN Energy: announces a new "drill-down" report on proposed US crude oil export terminals.

This summer and fall, more than a half dozen companies and midstream joint ventures have announced plans for new deepwater export terminals along the Gulf Coast that — if all built — would have the capacity to load and send out more than 10 MMb/d, which is notable because the U.S. Lower 48 currently produces 11.2 MMb/d. Most of these projects won’t get built, of course — export volumes may well continue rising, and the economics of fully loading VLCCs at deepwater ports are compelling, but even the most optimistic forecasts suggest that only one or two of these new terminals will be needed through the early 2020s. So, there’s a fierce competition on among developers to advance their VLCC-ready export projects to Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) first. Today, we discuss highlights from its most recent analysis of deepwater crude export terminals as well as the export growth and tanker-loading economics that are driving the project-development frenzy.

So far in 2018, the U.S. has exported more than 524 million barrels of crude oil and export volumes — lately hovering around the 1.8 MMb/d mark — are likely to continue increasing next year and in 2020. The export boom is made possible by the lifting of the ban on most U.S. crude exports in December 2015 and is driven by rising production in the Permian, Eagle Ford, SCOOP/STACK and other major plays. U.S. crude production has reached 11.7 MMb/d — all but 500 Mb/d of it in the Lower 48 — and RBN forecasts that output will rise another 500 Mb/d by April 2019. These production gains are occurring despite pipeline takeaway constraints out of the Permian, and may well accelerate in late 2019 and early 2020 as new pipeline capacity comes online, eliminating bottlenecks between West Texas and the Gulf Coast.